Clinical signs of deformed wing virus infection are predictive markers for honey bee colony losses.

The ectoparasitic mite Varroa destructor acting as a virus vector constitutes a central mechanism for losses of managed honey bee, Apis mellifera, colonies. This creates demand for an easy, accurate and cheap diagnostic tool to estimate the impact of viruliferous mites in the field. Here we evaluated whether the clinical signs of the ubiquitous and mite-transmitted deformed wing virus (DWV) can be predictive markers of winter losses. In fall and winter 2007/2008, A.m. carnica workers with apparent wing deformities were counted daily in traps installed on 29 queenright colonies. The data show that colonies which later died had a significantly higher proportion of workers with wing deformities than did those which survived. There was a significant positive correlation between V. destructor infestation levels and the number of workers displaying DWV clinical signs, further supporting the mite's impact on virus infections at the colony level. A logistic regression model suggests that colony size, the number of workers with wing deformities and V. destructor infestation levels constitute predictive markers for winter colony losses in this order of importance and ease of evaluation.

Risk of very early recurrent cerebrovascular events in symptomatic carotid artery stenosis

OBJECT The risk of recurrence of cerebrovascular events within the first 72 hours of admission in patients hospitalized with symptomatic carotid artery (CA) stenoses and the risks and benefits of emergency CA intervention within the first hours after the onset of symptoms are not well known. Therefore, the authors aimed to assess (1) the ipsilateral recurrence rate within 72 hours of admission, in the period from 72 hours to 7 days, and after 7 days in patients presenting with nondisabling stroke, transient ischemic attack (TIA), or amaurosis fugax (AF), and with an ipsilateral symptomatic CA stenosis of 50% or more, and (2) the risk of stroke in CA interventions within 48 hours of admission versus the risk in interventions performed after 48 hours. METHODS Ninety-four patients were included in this study. These patients were admitted to hospital within 48 hours of a nondisabling stroke, TIA, or AF resulting from a symptomatic CA stenosis of 50% or more. The patients underwent carotid endarterectomy (85 patients) or CA stenting (9 patients). At baseline, the cardiovascular risk factors of the patients, the degree of symptomatic CA stenosis, and the type of secondary preventive treatment were assessed. The in-hospital recurrence rate of stroke, TIA, or AF ipsilateral to the symptomatic CA stenosis was determined for the first 72 hours after admission, from 72 hours to 7 days, and after 7 days. Procedure-related cerebrovascular events were also recorded. RESULTS The median time from symptom onset to CA intervention was 5 days (interquartile range 3.00-9.25 days). Twenty-one patients (22.3%) underwent CA intervention within 48 hours after being admitted. Overall, 15 recurrent cerebrovascular events were observed in 12 patients (12.8%) in the period between admission and CA intervention: 3 strokes (2 strokes in progress and 1 stroke) (3.2%), 5 TIAs (5.3%), and 1 AF (1.1%) occurred within the first 72 hours (total 9.6%) of admission; 1 TIA (1.1%) occurred between 72 hours and 7 days, and 5 TIAs (5.3%) occurred after more than 7 days. The corresponding actuarial cerebrovascular recurrence rates were 11.4% (within 72 hours of admission), 2.4% (between 72 hours and 7 days), and 7.9% (after 7 days). Among baseline characteristics, no predictive factors for cerebrovascular recurrence were identified. Procedure-related cerebrovascular events occurred at a rate of 4.3% (3 strokes and 1 TIA), and procedures performed within the first 48 hours and procedures performed after 48 hours had a similar frequency of these events (4.5% vs. 4.1%, respectively; p = 0.896). CONCLUSIONS The in-hospital recurrence of cerebrovascular events was quite low, but all recurrent strokes occurred within 72 hours. The risk of stroke associated with a CA intervention performed within the first 48 hours was not increased compared with that for later interventions. This raises the question of the optimal timing of CA intervention in symptomatic CA stenosis. To answer this question, more data are needed, preferably from large randomized trials.

DXA predictions of human femoral mechanical properties depend on the load configuration

The aim of this study was to evaluate the ability of dual energy X-rays absorptiometry (DXA) areal bone mineral density (aBMD) measured in different regions of the proximal part of the human femur for predicting the mechanical properties of matched proximal femora tested in two different loading configurations. 36 pairs of fresh frozen femora were DXA scanned and tested until failure in two loading configurations: a fall on the side or a one-legged standing. The ability of the DXA output from four different regions of the proximal femur in predicting the femoral mechanical properties was measured and compared for the two loading scenarios. The femoral neck DXA BMD was best correlated to the femoral ultimate force for both configurations and predicted significantly better femoral failure load (R2=0.80 vs. R2=0.66, P<0.05) when simulating a side than when simulating a standing configuration. Conversely, the work to failure was predicted similarly for both loading configurations (R2=0.54 vs. R2=0.53, P>0.05). Therefore, neck BMD should be considered as one of the key factors for discriminating femoral fracture risk in vivo. Moreover, the better predictive ability of neck BMD for femoral strength if tested in a fall compared to a one-legged stance configuration suggests that DXA's clinical relevance may not be as high for spontaneous femoral fractures than for fractures associated to a fall.

Attitudes of Parents at risk of inheriting Li-Fraumeni Syndrome towards predictive genetic testing in their minor-aged children.

Li-Fraumeni Syndrome (LFS) is a hereditary cancer syndrome which predisposes individuals to cancer beginning in childhood. These risks are spread across a lifetime, from early childhood to adulthood. Mutations in the p53 tumor suppressor gene are known to cause the majority of cases of LFS. The risk for early onset cancer in individuals with Li-Fraumeni Syndrome is high. Studies have shown that individuals with LFS have a 90% lifetime cancer risk. Children under 18 have up to a 15% chance of cancer development. Effectiveness of cancer screening and management in individuals with Li-Fraumeni Syndrome is unclear. Screening for LFS-associated cancers has not been shown to reduce mortality. Due to the lack of effective screening techniques for childhood cancers, institutions vary with regard to their policies on testing children for LFS. There are currently no national guidelines regarding predictive testing of children who are at risk of inheriting LFS. No studies have looked at parental attitudes towards predictive p53 genetic testing in their children. This was a cross-sectional pilot study aimed at describing these attitudes. We identified individuals whose children were at risk for inheriting p53 genetic mutations. These individuals were provided with surveys which included validated measures addressing attitudes and beliefs towards genetic testing. The questionnaire included qualitative and quantitative measures. Six individuals completed and returned the questionnaire with a response rate of 28.57%. In general, respondents agreed that parents should have the opportunity to obtain p53 genetic testing for their child. Parents vary in regard to their attitudes towards who should be involved in the decision making process and at what time and under what considerations testing should occur. Testing motivations cited most important by respondents included family history, planning for the future and health management. Concern for insurance genetic discrimination was cited as the most important “con” to genetic testing. Although limited by a poor response rate, this study can give health care practitioners insight into testing attitudes and beliefs of families considering pediatric genetic testing.

Towards a taxonomy of common factors in psychotherapy-results of an expert survey

BACKGROUND: How change comes about is hotly debated in psychotherapy research. One camp considers 'non-specific' or 'common factors', shared by different therapy approaches, as essential, whereas researchers of the other camp consider specific techniques as the essential ingredients of change. This controversy, however, suffers from unclear terminology and logical inconsistencies. The Taxonomy Project therefore aims at contributing to the definition and conceptualization of common factors of psychotherapy by analyzing their differential associations to standard techniques. METHODS: A review identified 22 common factors discussed in psychotherapy research literature. We conducted a survey, in which 68 psychotherapy experts assessed how common factors are implemented by specific techniques. Using hierarchical linear models, we predicted each common factor by techniques and by experts' age, gender and allegiance to a therapy orientation. RESULTS: Common factors differed largely in their relevance for technique implementation. Patient engagement, Affective experiencing and Therapeutic alliance were judged most relevant. Common factors also differed with respect to how well they could be explained by the set of techniques. We present detailed profiles of all common factors by the (positively or negatively) associated techniques. There were indications of a biased taxonomy not covering the embodiment of psychotherapy (expressed by body-centred techniques such as progressive muscle relaxation, biofeedback training and hypnosis). Likewise, common factors did not adequately represent effective psychodynamic and systemic techniques. CONCLUSION: This taxonomic endeavour is a step towards a clarification of important core constructs of psychotherapy. KEY PRACTITIONER MESSAGE: This article relates standard techniques of psychotherapy (well known to practising therapists) to the change factors/change mechanisms discussed in psychotherapy theory. It gives a short review of the current debate on the mechanisms by which psychotherapy works. We provide detailed profiles of change mechanisms and how they may be generated by practice techniques.

Devices in heart failure: potential methods for device-based monitoring of congestive heart failure.

Congestive heart failure has long been one of the most serious medical conditions in the United States; in fact, in the United States alone, heart failure accounts for 6.5 million days of hospitalization each year. One important goal of heart-failure therapy is to inhibit the progression of congestive heart failure through pharmacologic and device-based therapies. Therefore, there have been efforts to develop device-based therapies aimed at improving cardiac reserve and optimizing pump function to meet metabolic requirements. The course of congestive heart failure is often worsened by other conditions, including new-onset arrhythmias, ischemia and infarction, valvulopathy, decompensation, end-organ damage, and therapeutic refractoriness, that have an impact on outcomes. The onset of such conditions is sometimes heralded by subtle pathophysiologic changes, and the timely identification of these changes may promote the use of preventive measures. Consequently, device-based methods could in the future have an important role in the timely identification of the subtle pathophysiologic changes associated with congestive heart failure.

A study of nurses' judgement of and participation in decision-making for nursing home placement for the elderly

This study investigated the effects of patient variables (physical and cognitive disability, significant others' preference and social support) on nurses' nursing home placement decision-making and explored nurses' participation in the decision-making process.^ The study was conducted in a hospital in Texas. A sample of registered nurses on units that refer patients for nursing home placement were asked to review a series of vignettes describing elderly patients that differed in terms of the study variables and indicate the extent to which they agreed with nursing home placement on a five-point Likert scale. The vignettes were judged to have good content validity by a group of five colleagues (expert consultants) and test-retest reliability based on the Pearson correlation coefficient was satisfactory (average of.75) across all vignettes.^ The study tested the following hypotheses: Nurses have more of a propensity to recommend placement when (1) patients have severe physical disabilities; (2) patients have severe cognitive disabilities; (3) it is the significant others' preference; and (4) patients have no social support nor alternative services. Other hypotheses were that (5) a nurse's characteristics and extent of participation will not have a significant effect on their placement decision; and (6) a patient's social support is the most important, single factor, and the combination of factors of severe physical and cognitive disability, significant others' preference, and no social support nor alternative services will be the most important set of predictors of a nurse's placement decision.^ Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) was used to analyze the relationships implied in the hypothesis. A series of one-way ANOVA (bivariate analyses) of the main effects supported hypotheses one-five.^ Overall, the n-way ANOVA (multivariate analyses) of the main effects confirmed that social support was the most important single factor controlling for other variables. The 4-way interaction model confirmed that the most predictive combination of patient characteristics were severe physical and cognitive disability, no social support and the significant others did not desire placement. These analyses provided an understanding of the importance of the influence of specific patient variables on nurses' recommendations regarding placement. ^

Risk factors associated with first symptomatic infection of {\it Cryptosporidium parvum\/} in an infant population in Bilbeis, Egypt

Diarrhea disease is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality, especially in children in developing countries. An estimate of the global mortality caused by diarrhea among children under five years of age was 3.3 million deaths per year. Cryptosporidium parvum was first identified in 1907, but it was not until 1970 that this organism was recognized as a cause of diarrhea in calves. Then it was as late as 1976 that the first reported case of human Cryptosporidiosis occurred. This study was conducted to ascertain the risk factors of first symptomatic infection with Cryptosporidium parvum in a cohort of infants in a rural area of Egypt. The cohort was followed from birth through the first year of life. Univariate and multivariate analyses of data demonstrated that infants greater than six months of age had a two-fold risk of infection compared with infants less than six months of age (RR = 2.17; 95% C.I. = 1.01-4.82). When stratified, male infants greater than six months of age were four times more likely to become infected than male infants less than six months of age. Among female infants, there was no difference in risk between infants greater than six months of age and infants less than six months of age. Female infants less than six months of age were twice more likely to become infected than male infants less than six months of age. The reverse occurred for infants greater than six months of age, i.e., male infants greater than six months of age had twice the risk of infection compared to females of the same age group. Further analysis of the data revealed an increased risk of Cryptosporidiosis infection in infants who were attended in childbirth by traditional childbirth attendants compared to infants who were attended by modern childbirth attendants (nurses, trained midwives, physicians) (RR = 4. 18; 95% C.I. = 1.05-36.06). The final risk factor of significance was the number of people residing in the household. Infants in households which housed more than seven persons had an almost two-fold risk of infection compared with infants in homes with fewer than seven persons. Other risk factors which suggested increased risk were lack of education among the mothers, absence of latrines and faucets in the homes, and mud used as building material for walls and floors in the homes. ^

Risk, outcomes, and cost of emergency center visits in cancer patients

Cancer is a chronic disease that often necessitates recurrent hospitalizations, a costly pattern of medical care utilization. In chronically ill patients, most readmissions are for treatment of the same condition that caused the preceding hospitalization. There is concern that rather than reducing costs, earlier discharge may shift costs from the initial hospitalization to emergency center visits. ^ This is the first descriptive study to measure the incidence of emergency center visits (ECVs) after hospitalization at The University of M. D. Anderson Cancer Center (UTMDACC), to identify the risk factors for and outcomes of these ECVs, and to compare 30-day all-cause mortality and costs for episodes of care with and without ECVs. ^ We identified all hospitalizations at UTMDACC with admission dates from September 1, 1993 through August 31, 1997 which met inclusion criteria. Data were electronically obtained primarily from UTMDACC's institutional database. Demographic factors, clinical factors, duration of the index hospitalization, method of payment for care, and year of hospitalization study were variables determined for each hospitalization. ^ The overall incidence of ECVs was 18%. Forty-five percent of ECVs resulted in hospital readmission (8% of all hospitalizations). In 1% of ECVs the patient died in the emergency center, and for the remaining 54% of ECVs the patient was discharged home. Risk factors for ECVs were marital status, type of index hospitalization, cancer type, and duration of the index hospitalization. The overall 30-day all-cause mortality rate was 8.6% for hospitalizations with an ECV and 5.3% for those without an ECV. In all subgroups, the 30-day all-cause mortality rate was higher for groups with ECVs than for those without ECVs. The most important factor increasing cost was having an ECV. In all patient subgroups, the cost per episode of care with an ECV was at least 1.9 times the cost per episode without an ECV. ^ The higher costs and poorer outcomes of episodes of care with ECVs and hospital readmissions suggest that interventions to avoid these ECVs or mitigate their costs are needed. Further research is needed to improve understanding of the methodological issues involved in relation to health care issues for cancer patients. ^

A novel clinical scoring system for outcome prediction in dogs with acute kidney injury managed by hemodialysis.

BACKGROUND No reliable tool to predict outcome of acute kidney injury (AKI) exists. HYPOTHESIS A statistically derived scoring system can accurately predict outcome in dogs with AKI managed with hemodialysis. ANIMALS One hundred and eighty-two client-owned dogs with AKI. METHODS Logistic regression analyses were performed initially on clinical variables available on the 1st day of hospitalization for relevance to outcome. Variables with P< or = .1 were considered for further analyses. Continuous variables outside the reference range were divided into quartiles to yield quartile-specific odds ratios (ORs) for survival. Models were developed by incorporating weighting factors assigned to each quartile based on the OR, using either the integer value of the OR (Model A) or the exact OR (Models B or C, when the etiology was known). A predictive score for each model was calculated for each dog by summing all weighting factors. In Model D, actual values for continuous variables were used in a logistic regression model. Receiver-operating curve analyses were performed to assess sensitivities, specificities, and optimal cutoff points for all models. RESULTS Higher scores were associated with decreased probability of survival (P < .001). Models A, B, C, and D correctly classified outcomes in 81, 83, 87, and 76% of cases, respectively, and optimal sensitivities/specificities were 77/85, 81/85, 83/90 and 92/61%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE The models allowed outcome prediction that corresponded with actual outcome in our cohort. However, each model should be validated further in independent cohorts. The models may also be useful to assess AKI severity.

Positive affect moderates the effect of negative affect on cardiovascular disease-related hospitalizations and all-cause mortality after cardiac rehabilitation

BACKGROUND Little is known as to whether negative emotions adversely impact the prognosis of patients who undergo cardiac rehabilitation. We prospectively investigated the predictive value of state negative affect (NA) assessed at discharge from cardiac rehabilitation for prognosis and the moderating role of positive affect (PA) on the effect of NA on outcomes. METHODS A total of 564 cardiac patients (62.49 ± 11.51) completed a comprehensive three-month outpatient cardiac rehabilitation program, filling in the Global Mood Scale (GMS) at discharge. The combined endpoint was cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related hospitalizations plus all-cause mortality at follow-up. Cox regression models estimated the predictive value of NA, as well as the moderating influence of PA on outcomes. Survival models were adjusted for sociodemographic factors, traditional cardiovascular risk factors, and severity of disease. RESULTS During a mean follow-up period of 3.4 years, 71 patients were hospitalized for a CVD-related event and 15 patients died. NA score (range 0-20) was a significant and independent predictor (hazard ratio (HR) 1.091, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.012-1.175; p = 0.023) with a three-point higher level in NA increasing the relative risk by 9.1%. Furthermore, PA interacted significantly with NA (p < 0.001). The relative risk of poor prognosis with NA was increased in patients with low PA (p = 0.012) but remained unchanged in combination with high PA (p = 0.12). CONCLUSION The combination of NA with low PA was particularly predictive of poor prognosis. Whether reduction of NA and increase of PA, particularly in those with high NA, improves outcome needs to be tested.

Is surgery in acute aortic dissection type A still contraindicated in the presence of preoperative neurological symptoms?

OBJECTIVES Severe neurological deficit (ND) due to acute aortic dissection type A (AADA) was considered a contraindication for surgery because of poor prognosis. Recently, more aggressive indication for surgery despite neurological symptoms has shown acceptable postoperative clinical results. The aim of this study was to evaluate early and mid-term outcomes of patients with AADA presenting with acute ND. METHODS Data from 53 patients with new-onset ND who received surgical repair for AADA between 2005 and 2012 at our institution were retrospectively reviewed. ND was defined as focal motor or sensory deficit, hemiplegia, paraplegia, convulsions or coma. Neurological symptoms were evaluated preoperatively using the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and modified Rankin Scale (mRS), and at discharge as well as 3-6 months postoperatively using the mRS and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale. Involvement of carotid arteries was assessed in the pre- and postoperative computed tomography. Logistic regression analysis was performed to detect predictive factors for recovery of ND. RESULTS Of the 53 patients, 29 (54.7%) showed complete recovery from focal ND at follow-up. Neurological symptoms persisted in 24 (45.3%) patients, of which 8 (33%) died without neurological assessment at follow-up. Between the two groups (patients with recovery and those with persisting ND), there was no significant difference regarding the duration of hypothermic circulatory arrest (28 ± 14 vs 36 ± 20 min) or severely reduced consciousness (GCS <8). Multivariate analysis showed significant differences for the preoperative mRS between the two groups (P < 0.007). A high preoperative mRS was associated with persistence of neurological symptoms (P < 0.02). Cardiovascular risk factors, age or involvement of supra-aortic branches were not predictive for persistence of ND. CONCLUSION More than half of our patients recovered completely from ND due to AADA after surgery. Severity of clinical symptoms had a predictive value. Patients suffering from AADA and presenting with ND before surgery should not be excluded from emergency surgery.

Stratification of high-risk prostate cancer into prognostic categories: a European multi-institutional study

BACKGROUND High-risk prostate cancer (PCa) is an extremely heterogeneous disease. A clear definition of prognostic subgroups is mandatory. OBJECTIVE To develop a pretreatment prognostic model for PCa-specific survival (PCSS) in high-risk PCa based on combinations of unfavorable risk factors. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS We conducted a retrospective multicenter cohort study including 1360 consecutive patients with high-risk PCa treated at eight European high-volume centers. INTERVENTION Retropubic radical prostatectomy with pelvic lymphadenectomy. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS Two Cox multivariable regression models were constructed to predict PCSS as a function of dichotomization of clinical stage (< cT3 vs cT3-4), Gleason score (GS) (2-7 vs 8-10), and prostate-specific antigen (PSA; ≤ 20 ng/ml vs > 20 ng/ml). The first "extended" model includes all seven possible combinations; the second "simplified" model includes three subgroups: a good prognosis subgroup (one single high-risk factor); an intermediate prognosis subgroup (PSA >20 ng/ml and stage cT3-4); and a poor prognosis subgroup (GS 8-10 in combination with at least one other high-risk factor). The predictive accuracy of the models was summarized and compared. Survival estimates and clinical and pathologic outcomes were compared between the three subgroups. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS The simplified model yielded an R(2) of 33% with a 5-yr area under the curve (AUC) of 0.70 with no significant loss of predictive accuracy compared with the extended model (R(2): 34%; AUC: 0.71). The 5- and 10-yr PCSS rates were 98.7% and 95.4%, 96.5% and 88.3%, 88.8% and 79.7%, for the good, intermediate, and poor prognosis subgroups, respectively (p = 0.0003). Overall survival, clinical progression-free survival, and histopathologic outcomes significantly worsened in a stepwise fashion from the good to the poor prognosis subgroups. Limitations of the study are the retrospective design and the long study period. CONCLUSIONS This study presents an intuitive and easy-to-use stratification of high-risk PCa into three prognostic subgroups. The model is useful for counseling and decision making in the pretreatment setting.

Recommendations for HLA-B*15:02 and HLA-A*31:01 genetic testing to reduce the risk of carbamazepine-induced hypersensitivity reactions.

OBJECTIVE To systematically review evidence on genetic risk factors for carbamazepine (CBZ)-induced hypersensitivity reactions (HSRs) and provide practice recommendations addressing the key questions: (1) Should genetic testing for HLA-B*15:02 and HLA-A*31:01 be performed in patients with an indication for CBZ therapy to reduce the occurrence of CBZ-induced HSRs? (2) Are there subgroups of patients who may benefit more from genetic testing for HLA-B*15:02 or HLA-A*31:01 compared to others? (3) How should patients with an indication for CBZ therapy be managed based on their genetic test results? METHODS A systematic literature search was performed for HLA-B*15:02 and HLA-A*31:01 and their association with CBZ-induced HSRs. Evidence was critically appraised and clinical practice recommendations were developed based on expert group consensus. RESULTS Patients carrying HLA-B*15:02 are at strongly increased risk for CBZ-induced Stevens-Johnson syndrome/toxic epidermal necrolysis (SJS/TEN) in populations where HLA-B*15:02 is common, but not CBZ-induced hypersensitivity syndrome (HSS) or maculopapular exanthema (MPE). HLA-B*15:02-positive patients with CBZ-SJS/TEN have been reported from Asian countries only, including China, Thailand, Malaysia, and India. HLA-B*15:02 is rare among Caucasians or Japanese; no HLA-B*15:02-positive patients with CBZ-SJS/TEN have been reported so far in these groups. HLA-A*31:01-positive patients are at increased risk for CBZ-induced HSS and MPE, and possibly SJS/TEN and acute generalized exanthematous pustulosis (AGEP). This association has been shown in Caucasian, Japanese, Korean, Chinese, and patients of mixed origin; however, HLA-A*31:01 is common in most ethnic groups. Not all patients carrying either risk variant develop an HSR, resulting in a relatively low positive predictive value of the genetic tests. SIGNIFICANCE This review provides the latest update on genetic markers for CBZ HSRs, clinical practice recommendations as a basis for informed decision making regarding the use of HLA-B*15:02 and HLA-A*31:01 genetic testing in patients with an indication for CBZ therapy, and identifies knowledge gaps to guide future research. A PowerPoint slide summarizing this article is available for download in the Supporting Information section here.

What is the best time point to identify patients at risk of developing persistent low back pain?

BACKGROUND Early identification of patients at risk of developing persistent low back pain (LBP) is crucial. OBJECTIVE Aim of this study was to identify in patients with a new episode of LBP the time point at which those at risk of developing persistent LBP can be best identified.METHODS: Prospective cohort study of 315 patients presenting to a health practitioner with a first episode of acute LBP. Primary outcome measure was functional limitation. Patients were assessed at baseline, three, six, twelve weeks and six months looking at factors of maladaptive cognition as potential predictors. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed for all time points. RESULTS The best time point to predict the development of persistent LBP at six months was the twelve-week follow-up (sensitivity 78%; overall predictive value 90%). Cognitions assessed at first visit to a health practitioner were not predictive. CONCLUSIONS Maladaptive cognitions at twelve weeks appear to be suitable predictors for a transition from acute to persistent LBP. Already three weeks after patients present to a health practitioner with acute LBP cognitions might influence the development of persistent LBP. Therefore, cognitive-behavioral interventions should be considered as early adjuvant LBP treatment in patients at risk of developing persistent LBP.