997 resultados para Predictive Function


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During spermatogenesis, different genes are expressed in a strictly coordinated fashion providing an excellent model to study cell differentiation. Recent identification of testis specific genes and the development of green fluorescence protein (GFP) transgene technology and an in vivo system for studying the differentiation of transplanted male germ cells in infertile testis has opened new possibilities for studying the male germ cell differentiation at molecular level. We have employed these techniques in combination with transillumination based stage recognition (Parvinen and Vanha-Perttula, 1972) and squash preparation techniques (Parvinen and Hecht, 1981) to study the regulation of male germ cell differentiation. By using transgenic mice expressing enhanced-(E)GFP as a marker we have studied the expression and hormonal regulation of beta-actin and acrosin proteins in the developmentally different living male germ cells. Beta-actin was demonstrated in all male germ cells, whereas acrosin was expressed only in late meiotic and in postmeiotic cells. Follicle stimulating hormone stimulated b-actin-EGFP expression at stages I-VI and enhanced the formation of microtubules in spermatids and this way reduced the size of the acrosomic system. When EGFP expressing spermatogonial stem cells were transplanted into infertile mouse testis differentiation and the synchronized development of male germ cells could be observed during six months observation time. Each colony developed independently and maintained typical stage-dependent cell associations. Furthermore, if more than two colonies were fused, each of them was adjusted to one stage and synchronized. By studying living spermatids we were able to demonstrate novel functions for Golgi complex and chromatoid body in material sharing between neighbor spermatids. Immunosytochemical analyses revealed a transport of haploid cell specific proteins in spermatids (TRA54 and Shippo1) and through the intercellular bridges (TRA54). Cytoskeleton inhibitor (nocodazole) demonstrated the importance of microtubules in material sharing between spermatids and in preserving the integrity of the chromatoid body. Golgi complex inhibitor, brefeldin A, revealed the great importance of Golgi complex i) in acrosomic system formation ii) TRA54 translation and in iii) granule trafficking between spermatids.

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BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Alpha(1)-adrenoceptor antagonists are extensively used in the treatment of hypertension and lower urinary tract symptoms associated with benign prostatic hyperplasia. Among the side effects, ejaculatory dysfunction occurs more frequently with drugs that are relatively selective for alpha(1A)-adrenoceptors compared with other drugs of this class. This suggests that alpha(1A)-adrenoceptors may contribute to ejaculation. However, this has not been studied at the molecular level. EXPERIMENTAL APPROACH: The physiological contribution of each alpha(1)-adrenoceptor subtype was characterized using alpha(1)-adrenoceptor subtype-selective knockout (KO) mice (alpha(1A)-, alpha(1B)- and alpha(1D)-AR KO mice) since the subtype-specific drugs available are only moderately selective. We analysed the role of alpha(1)-adrenoceptors in the blood pressure and vascular response as well as ejaculation by determining these variables in alpha(1)-adrenoceptor subtype-selective KO mice and in mice with all their alpha(1)-adrenoceptor subtypes deleted (alpha(1)-AR triple-KO mice). KEY RESULTS: The pregnancy rate was reduced by 50% in alpha(1A)-adrenoceptor KO mice, and this reduction was dramatically enhanced in alpha(1)-adrenoceptor triple-KO mice. Contractile tension of the vas deferens in response to noradrenaline was markedly decreased in alpha(1A)-adrenoceptor KO mice, and this contraction was completely abolished in alpha(1)-adrenoceptor triple-KO mice. This attenuation of contractility was also observed in the electrically stimulated vas deferens. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: These results demonstrate that alpha(1)-adrenoceptors, particularly alpha(1A)-adrenoceptors, are required for normal contractility of the vas deferens and consequent sperm ejaculation as well as having a function in fertility.

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Objective: An inverse relationship between blood pressure and cognitive function has been found in adults, but limited data are available in adolescents and young adults. We prospectively examined the relation between blood pressure and cognitive function in adolescence. Methods: We examined the association between BP measured at the ages of 12-15 years in school surveys and cognitive endpoints measured in the Seychelles Child Development Study at ages 17 (n=407) and 19 (n=429) years respectively. We evaluated multiple domains of cognition based on subtests of the Cambridge Neurological Test Automated Battery (CANTAB), the Woodcock Johnson Test of Scholastic Achievement (WJTA), the Finger Tapping test (FT) and the Kaufman Brief Intelligence Test (K-BIT). We used age-, sex- and height-specific z-scores of systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and mean arterial pressure (MAP). Results: Six out of the 21 cognitive endpoints tested were associated with BP. However, none of these associations were found to hold for both males and females or for different subtests within the same neurodevelopmental domain or for both SBP and DBP. Most of these associations disappeared when analyses were adjusted for selected potential confounding factors such as socio-economic status, birth weight, gestational age, body mass index, alcohol consumption, blood glucose, and total n-3 and n-6 polyunsaturated fats. Conclusions: Our findings do not support a consistent association between BP and subsequent performance on tests assessing various cognitive domains in adolescents.

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1. Harsh environmental conditions experienced during development can reduce the performance of the same individuals in adulthood. However, the 'predictive adaptive response' hypothesis postulates that if individuals adapt their phenotype during development to the environments where they are likely to live in the future, individuals exposed to harsh conditions in early life perform better when encountering the same harsh conditions in adulthood compared to those never exposed to these conditions before. 2. Using the common vole (Microtus arvalis) as study organism, we tested how exposure to flea parasitism during the juvenile stage affects the physiology (haematocrit, resistance to oxidative stress, resting metabolism, spleen mass, and testosterone), morphology (body mass, testis mass) and motor performance (open field activity and swimming speed) of the same individuals when infested with fleas in adulthood. According to the 'predictive adaptive response' hypothesis, we predicted that voles parasitized at the adult stage would perform better if they had already been parasitized with fleas at the juvenile stage. 3. We found that voles exposed to fleas in adulthood had a higher metabolic rate if already exposed to fleas when juvenile, compared to voles free of fleas when juvenile and voles free of fleas in adulthood. Independently of juvenile parasitism, adult parasitism impaired adult haematocrit and motor performances. Independently of adult parasitism, juvenile parasitism slowed down crawling speed in adult female voles. 4. Our results suggest that juvenile parasitism has long-term effects that do not protect from the detrimental effects of adult parasitism. On the contrary, experiencing parasitism in early-life incurs additional costs upon adult parasitism measured in terms of higher energy expenditure, rather than inducing an adaptive shift in the developmental trajectory. 5. Hence, our study provides experimental evidence for long term costs of parasitism. We found no support for a predictive adaptive response in this host-parasite system.

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Metachondromatosis (MC) is a rare, autosomal dominant, incompletely penetrant combined exostosis and enchondromatosis tumor syndrome. MC is clinically distinct from other multiple exostosis or multiple enchondromatosis syndromes and is unlinked to EXT1 and EXT2, the genes responsible for autosomal dominant multiple osteochondromas (MO). To identify a gene for MC, we performed linkage analysis with high-density SNP arrays in a single family, used a targeted array to capture exons and promoter sequences from the linked interval in 16 participants from 11 MC families, and sequenced the captured DNA using high-throughput parallel sequencing technologies. DNA capture and parallel sequencing identified heterozygous putative loss-of-function mutations in PTPN11 in 4 of the 11 families. Sanger sequence analysis of PTPN11 coding regions in a total of 17 MC families identified mutations in 10 of them (5 frameshift, 2 nonsense, and 3 splice-site mutations). Copy number analysis of sequencing reads from a second targeted capture that included the entire PTPN11 gene identified an additional family with a 15 kb deletion spanning exon 7 of PTPN11. Microdissected MC lesions from two patients with PTPN11 mutations demonstrated loss-of-heterozygosity for the wild-type allele. We next sequenced PTPN11 in DNA samples from 54 patients with the multiple enchondromatosis disorders Ollier disease or Maffucci syndrome, but found no coding sequence PTPN11 mutations. We conclude that heterozygous loss-of-function mutations in PTPN11 are a frequent cause of MC, that lesions in patients with MC appear to arise following a "second hit," that MC may be locus heterogeneous since 1 familial and 5 sporadically occurring cases lacked obvious disease-causing PTPN11 mutations, and that PTPN11 mutations are not a common cause of Ollier disease or Maffucci syndrome.

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Résumé : Les mécanismes de contrôle des couleurs mélaniques chez les vertébrés sont encore discutés parmi les biologistes de l'évolution. Une hypothèse récente affirme que les effets pléiotropies du système des mélanocortines expliquent l'association fréquente entre la coloration eumélanique noire (due à la déposition d'eumélanine) et de nombreux traits physiologiques et comportementaux. De nombreuses études suggèrent, en effet, que des niveaux plus élevés des mélanocortines induisent l'assombrissement des téguments eumélaniques et affectent d'autres traits phénotypiques simultanément. Cependant, il n'est pas encore établi si ce mécanisme de pléiotropie peut s'appliquer aux colorations dues à la déposition de phaeomélanine, une autre forme commune de mélanine. Les antagonistes des mélanocortines déclenchent le phaeomélanogenèse et bloquent l'effet des mélanocortines ou ont un effet pharmacologique opposé. Nous nous proposons donc d'évaluer l'hypothèse que les effets pléiotropes des antagonistes des mélanocortines génèrent des covariations entre la coloration phaeomélanique et des aspects de la qualité individuelle. Comme prédit par cette hypothèse, nous constatons chez la chouette effraie (Tyto alba) que les traits phénotypiques (résistance au stress oxydatif et aux parasites) corrèlent positivement au degré d'expression d'une couleur eumélanique mais négativement au degré d'expression d'une coloration phaeomélanique. Puis, nous montrons chez la chouette hulotte (Strix aluco) que les associations génétiques entre la coloration phaeomélanique et la physiologie (immunité et la régulation de l'homéostasie) confèrent des avantages aux individus de différentes couleurs dans différents environnements caractérisés par l'abondance de nourriture et le niveau d'exposition aux parasites. Ainsi, nos études soutiennent l'hypothèse que les effets pléiotropes des antagonistes des mélanocortines génèrent des covariations entre les traits mélaniques et divers aspects de la qualité individuelle. Finalement, nous montrons chez le faucon crécerelle (Falco Tinnunculus) que l'expression des ornements mélaniques est sensible à la qualité de l'environnement dans lequel les individus grandissent. Ceci suggère que les gènes codant pour les mélanocortines et leurs antagonistes pourraient induire une expression des traits mélaniques dépendante de la condition de l'individu, un pattern d'expression rarement observé pour des traits généralement sous fort contrôle génétique. Summary : The information content and control mechanisms of melanin-based colour signals in vertebrates are still debated among evolutionary biologists. A recent hypothesis contends that pleiotropic effects of the melanocortin system accounts for the frequent association between black eumelanic coloration and physiological and behavioural traits. Accordingly, empirical evidence suggests that higher levels of melanocortins concurrently promote darker eumelanic integuments and affect other phenotypic traits. However, whether this mechanism may apply to signals relying on phaeomelanin, another common form of melanin pigments, remains to be established. Melanocortin antagonists trigger phaeomelanogenesis and block the effect of melanocortins or result in the opposite pharmacological effect. Therefore, we tested the hypothesis that pleiotropic effects of melanocortin antagonists and inverse agonists account for covariations between phaeomelanin-based coloration and aspects of individual quality. As predicted, we found that phenotypic traits (resistance to oxidative stress and parasites) correlated positively with a eumelanic trait and negatively with a phaeomelanic trait in the barn owl (Tyto alba). Then, we showed in the tawny owl (Strix aluco) that genetic associations between phaeomelanin-based coloration and physiology (immunity and regulation of energy homeostasis) confer benefits to differently coloured individuals under different levels of food abundance and parasite exposure. Altogether, our studies support the hypothesis that pleiotropic effects of melanocortins antagonists can indeed account for covariations between phaeomelanin-based traits and aspects of individual quality. Eventually, we show in the Eurasian kestrel (Falco Tinnunculus) that expression of melanin-based ornaments is sensitive to the environment in which individuals grow. This suggests that genes coding for melanocortins and their antagonists can mediate the condition-dependent component of melanin-based traits.

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INTRODUCTION: The antiretroviral drug efavirenz (EFV) is extensively metabolized into three primary metabolites: 8-hydroxy-EFV, 7-hydroxy-EFV and N-glucuronide-EFV. There is a wide interindividual variability in EFV plasma exposure, explained to a great extent by cytochrome P450 2B6 (CYP2B6), the main isoenzyme responsible for EFV metabolism and involved in the major metabolic pathway (8-hydroxylation) and to a lesser extent in 7-hydroxylation. When CYP2B6 function is impaired, the relevance of CYP2A6, the main isoenzyme responsible for 7-hydroxylation may increase. We hypothesize that genetic variability in this gene may contribute to the particularly high, unexplained variability in EFV exposure in individuals with limited CYP2B6 function. METHODS: This study characterized CYP2A6 variation (14 alleles) in individuals (N=169) previously characterized for functional variants in CYP2B6 (18 alleles). Plasma concentrations of EFV and its primary metabolites (8-hydroxy-EFV, 7-hydroxy-EFV and N-glucuronide-EFV) were measured in different genetic backgrounds in vivo. RESULTS: The accessory metabolic pathway CYP2A6 has a critical role in limiting drug accumulation in individuals characterized as CYP2B6 slow metabolizers. CONCLUSION: Dual CYP2B6 and CYP2A6 slow metabolism occurs at significant frequency in various human populations, leading to extremely high EFV exposure.

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Clinical practice guidelines in nursing (CPG-N) are tools that allow the necessary knowledge that frequently remains specialist-internalised to be made explicit. These tools are a complement to risk adjustment systems (RAS), reinforcing their effectiveness and permitting a rationalisation of healthcare costs. This theoretical study defends the importance of building and using CPG-Ns as instruments to support the figure of the nursing supervisor in order to optimise the implementation of R&D and hospital quality strategies, enabling clinical excellence in nursing processes and cost-efficient reallocation of economic resources through their linear integration with SARs.

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BACKGROUND: Acute exposure to high altitude stimulates free radical formation in lowlanders, yet whether this persists during chronic exposure in healthy, well-adapted and maladapted highlanders suffering from chronic mountain sickness (CMS) remains to be established. METHODS: Oxidative-nitrosative stress (as determined by the presence of the biomarkers ascorbate radical [A •- ], via electron paramagnetic resonance spectroscopy, and nitrite [NO 2 2 ], via ozone-based chemiluminescence) was assessed in venous blood of 25 male highlanders in Bolivia living at 3,600 m with CMS (n 5 13, CMS 1 ) and without CMS (n 5 12, CMS 2 ). Twelve age- and activity-matched, healthy, male lowlanders were examined at sea level and during acute hypoxia. We also measured fl ow-mediated dilatation (FMD), arterial stiffness defined by augmentation index normalized for a heart rate of 75 beats/min (AIx-75), and carotid intima-media thickness (IMT). RESULTS: Compared with normoxic lowlanders, oxidative-nitrosative stress was moderately increased in the CMS 2 group ( P , .05), as indicated by elevated A •- (3,191 457 arbitrary units [AU] vs 2,640 445 AU) and lower NO 2 2 (206 55 nM vs 420 128 nM), whereas vascular function remained preserved. This was comparable to that observed during acute hypoxia in lowlanders in whom vascular dysfunction is typically observed. In contrast, this response was markedly exaggerated in CMS 1 group (A •- , 3,765 429 AU; NO 2 2 , 148 50 nM) compared with both the CMS 2 group and lowlanders ( P , .05). This was associated with systemic vascular dysfunction as indicated by lower ( P , .05 vs CMS 2 ) FMD (4.2% 0.7% vs 7.6% 1.7%) and increased AIx-75 (23% 8% vs 12% 7%) and carotid IMT (714 127 m M vs 588 94 m M). CONCLUSIONS: Healthy highlanders display a moderate, sustained elevation in oxidative-nitrosative stress that, unlike the equivalent increase evoked by acute hypoxia in healthy lowlanders, failed to affect vascular function. Its more marked elevation in patients with CMS may contribute to systemic vascular dysfunction.

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BACKGROUND: Adrenal insufficiency is a rare and potentially lethal disease if untreated. Several clinical signs and biological markers are associated with glucocorticoid failure but the importance of these factors for diagnosing adrenal insufficiency is not known. In this study, we aimed to assess the prevalence of and the factors associated with adrenal insufficiency among patients admitted to an acute internal medicine ward. METHODS: Retrospective, case-control study including all patients with high-dose (250 μg) ACTH-stimulation tests for suspected adrenal insufficiency performed between 2008 and 2010 in an acute internal medicine ward (n = 281). Cortisol values <550 nmol/l upon ACTH-stimulation test were considered diagnostic for adrenal insufficiency. Area under the ROC curve (AROC), sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values for adrenal insufficiency were assessed for thirteen symptoms, signs and biological variables. RESULTS: 32 patients (11.4%) presented adrenal insufficiency; the others served as controls. Among all clinical and biological parameters studied, history of glucocorticoid withdrawal was the only independent factor significantly associated with patients with adrenal insufficiency (Odds Ratio: 6.71, 95% CI: 3.08 -14.62). Using a logistic regression, a model with four significant and independent variable was obtained, regrouping history of glucocorticoid withdrawal (OR 7.38, 95% CI [3.18 ; 17.11], p-value <0.001), nausea (OR 3.37, 95% CI [1.03 ; 11.00], p-value 0.044), eosinophilia (OR 17.6, 95% CI [1.02; 302.3], p-value 0.048) and hyperkalemia (OR 2.41, 95% CI [0.87; 6.69], p-value 0.092). The AROC (95% CI) was 0.75 (0.70; 0.80) for this model, with 6.3 (0.8 - 20.8) for sensitivity and 99.2 (97.1 - 99.9) for specificity. CONCLUSIONS: 11.4% of patients with suspected adrenal insufficient admitted to acute medical ward actually do present with adrenal insufficiency, defined by an abnormal response to high-dose (250 μg) ACTH-stimulation test. A history of glucocorticoid withdrawal was the strongest factor predicting the potential adrenal failure. The combination of a history of glucocorticoid withdrawal, nausea, eosinophilia and hyperkaliemia might be of interest to suspect adrenal insufficiency.

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While the lesions produced by transmyocardial laser revascularisation (TMLR) induce scar formation, it is important to determine whether this procedure can be deleterious for the left-ventricular function, which is already impaired by the underlying ischaemic process in some patients. Ten channels were drilled in the left lateral wall of the hearts of ten pigs (mean weight, 61 +/- 8.2kg) with a Holmium:YAG laser. Haemodynamic measurements and echocardiographic assessment of left-ventricular function were performed before the TMLR procedure, 5 and 30 min after, and lastly after 5 min of pacing at a rate increased by 30% of the baseline value. Echocardiographic assessment was in the short axis at the level of the laser channels, and included left-ventricular ejection fraction and segmental wall motility of the lasered area (scale 0-3:0 = normal 1 = hypokinesia, 2 = akinesia, 3 = dyskinesia). Values at 5 and 30 min were compared with baseline values; the difference was considered significant if p < 0.05. Haemodynamical values were stable throughout all the procedures. The ejection fraction showed a slight but significant decrease 5 min after the creation of the channels (60.4 +/- 6.8% vs 54 +/- 7.6%, p=0.02) and recovered at 30min. The segmental motility score of the involved areas increased to 1 after 5 min in five animals, and came back to 0 at 30 min except in one animal. Even with pacing no segmental dysfunction occurred. The reversibility of the segmental hypokinesia induced by TMLR, as well as the absence of pace-induced dysfunction 30 min after the procedure strongly suggest the inocuity of TMLR in this experimental set-up.

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Background. We assessed end-diastolic right ventricular (RV) dimensions and left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction by use of intraoperative transesophageal echocardiography before and after surgical correction of pectus excavatum in adults. Methods. A prospective study was conducted including 17 patients undergoing surgical correction of pectus excavatum according to the technique of Ravitch-Shamberger between 1999 and 2004. Intraoperative transesophageal echocardiography was performed under general anesthesia before and after surgery to assess end-diastolic RV dimensions and LV ejection fraction. The end-diastolic RV diameter and area were measured in four-chamber and RV inflow-outflow view, and the RV volume was calculated from these data. The LV was assessed by transgastric short-axis view, and its ejection fraction was calculated by use of the Teichholz formula. Results. The end-diastolic RV diameter, area, and volume all significantly increased after surgery (mean values +/- SD, respectively: 2.4 +/- 0.8 cm versus 3.0 +/- 0.9 cm, p < 0.001; 12.5 +/- 5.2 cm(2) versus 18.4 +/- 7.5 cm(2), p < 0.001; and 21.7 +/- 11.7 mL versus 40.8 +/- 23 mL, p < 0.001). The LV ejection fraction also significantly increased after surgery (58.4% +/- 15% versus 66.2% +/- 6%, p < 0.001). Conclusions. Surgical correction of pectus excavatum according to Ravitch-Shamberger technique results in a significant increase in end-diastolic RV dimensions and a significantly increased LV ejection fraction. (Ann Thorac Surg 2010; 89: 240-4) (C) 2010 by The Society of Thoracic Surgeons

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Protective adaptive immune responses rely on TCR-mediated recognition of Ag-derived peptides presented by self-MHC molecules. However, self-Ag (tumor)-specific TCRs are often of too low affinity to achieve best functionality. To precisely assess the relationship between TCR-peptide-MHC binding parameters and T cell function, we tested a panel of sequence-optimized HLA-A(*)0201/NY-ESO-1(157-165)-specific TCR variants with affinities lying within physiological boundaries to preserve antigenic specificity and avoid cross-reactivity, as well as two outliers (i.e., a very high- and a low-affinity TCR). Primary human CD8 T cells transduced with these TCRs demonstrated robust correlations between binding measurements of TCR affinity and avidity and the biological response of the T cells, such as TCR cell-surface clustering, intracellular signaling, proliferation, and target cell lysis. Strikingly, above a defined TCR-peptide-MHC affinity threshold (K(D) < approximately 5 muM), T cell function could not be further enhanced, revealing a plateau of maximal T cell function, compatible with the notion that multiple TCRs with slightly different affinities participate equally (codominantly) in immune responses. We propose that rational design of improved self-specific TCRs may not need to be optimized beyond a given affinity threshold to achieve both optimal T cell function and avoidance of the unpredictable risk of cross-reactivity.

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A crucial method for investigating patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) is the calculation of the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). It is, consequently, imperative to precisely estimate the value of LVEF--a process that can be done with myocardial perfusion scintigraphy. Therefore, the present study aimed to establish and compare the estimation performance of the quantitative parameters of the reconstruction methods filtered backprojection (FBP) and ordered-subset expectation maximization (OSEM). METHODS: A beating-heart phantom with known values of end-diastolic volume, end-systolic volume, and LVEF was used. Quantitative gated SPECT/quantitative perfusion SPECT software was used to obtain these quantitative parameters in a semiautomatic mode. The Butterworth filter was used in FBP, with the cutoff frequencies between 0.2 and 0.8 cycles per pixel combined with the orders of 5, 10, 15, and 20. Sixty-three reconstructions were performed using 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, and 16 OSEM subsets, combined with several iterations: 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 16, 32, and 64. RESULTS: With FBP, the values of end-diastolic, end-systolic, and the stroke volumes rise as the cutoff frequency increases, whereas the value of LVEF diminishes. This same pattern is verified with the OSEM reconstruction. However, with OSEM there is a more precise estimation of the quantitative parameters, especially with the combinations 2 iterations × 10 subsets and 2 iterations × 12 subsets. CONCLUSION: The OSEM reconstruction presents better estimations of the quantitative parameters than does FBP. This study recommends the use of 2 iterations with 10 or 12 subsets for OSEM and a cutoff frequency of 0.5 cycles per pixel with the orders 5, 10, or 15 for FBP as the best estimations for the left ventricular volumes and ejection fraction quantification in myocardial perfusion scintigraphy.

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We analyze crash data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation using Bayesian methods. The data set includes monthly crash numbers, estimated monthly traffic volumes, site length and other information collected at 30 paired sites in Iowa over more than 20 years during which an intervention experiment was set up. The intervention consisted in transforming 15 undivided road segments from four-lane to three lanes, while an additional 15 segments, thought to be comparable in terms of traffic safety-related characteristics were not converted. The main objective of this work is to find out whether the intervention reduces the number of crashes and the crash rates at the treated sites. We fitted a hierarchical Poisson regression model with a change-point to the number of monthly crashes per mile at each of the sites. Explanatory variables in the model included estimated monthly traffic volume, time, an indicator for intervention reflecting whether the site was a “treatment” or a “control” site, and various interactions. We accounted for seasonal effects in the number of crashes at a site by including smooth trigonometric functions with three different periods to reflect the four seasons of the year. A change-point at the month and year in which the intervention was completed for treated sites was also included. The number of crashes at a site can be thought to follow a Poisson distribution. To estimate the association between crashes and the explanatory variables, we used a log link function and added a random effect to account for overdispersion and for autocorrelation among observations obtained at the same site. We used proper but non-informative priors for all parameters in the model, and carried out all calculations using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS. We evaluated the effect of the four to three-lane conversion by comparing the expected number of crashes per year per mile during the years preceding the conversion and following the conversion for treatment and control sites. We estimated this difference using the observed traffic volumes at each site and also on a per 100,000,000 vehicles. We also conducted a prospective analysis to forecast the expected number of crashes per mile at each site in the study one year, three years and five years following the four to three-lane conversion. Posterior predictive distributions of the number of crashes, the crash rate and the percent reduction in crashes per mile were obtained for each site for the months of January and June one, three and five years after completion of the intervention. The model appears to fit the data well. We found that in most sites, the intervention was effective and reduced the number of crashes. Overall, and for the observed traffic volumes, the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year and mile at converted sites was 32.3% (31.4% to 33.5% with 95% probability) while at the control sites, the reduction was estimated to be 7.1% (5.7% to 8.2% with 95% probability). When the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year, mile and 100,000,000 AADT was computed, the estimates were 44.3% (43.9% to 44.6%) and 25.5% (24.6% to 26.0%) for converted and control sites, respectively. In both cases, the difference in the percent reduction in the expected number of crashes during the years following the conversion was significantly larger at converted sites than at control sites, even though the number of crashes appears to decline over time at all sites. Results indicate that the reduction in the expected number of sites per mile has a steeper negative slope at converted than at control sites. Consistent with this, the forecasted reduction in the number of crashes per year and mile during the years after completion of the conversion at converted sites is more pronounced than at control sites. Seasonal effects on the number of crashes have been well-documented. In this dataset, we found that, as expected, the expected number of monthly crashes per mile tends to be higher during winter months than during the rest of the year. Perhaps more interestingly, we found that there is an interaction between the four to three-lane conversion and season; the reduction in the number of crashes appears to be more pronounced during months, when the weather is nice than during other times of the year, even though a reduction was estimated for the entire year. Thus, it appears that the four to three-lane conversion, while effective year-round, is particularly effective in reducing the expected number of crashes in nice weather.