TIGGE: Comparison of the prediction of northern hemisphere extratropical cyclones by different ensemble prediction systems

The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) is a World Weather Research Programme project. One of its main objectives is to enhance collaboration on the development of ensemble prediction between operational centers and universities by increasing the availability of ensemble prediction system (EPS) data for research. This study analyzes the prediction of Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones by nine different EPSs archived as part of the TIGGE project for the 6-month time period of 1 February 2008–31 July 2008, which included a sample of 774 cyclones. An objective feature tracking method has been used to identify and track the cyclones along the forecast trajectories. Forecast verification statistics have then been produced [using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analysis as the truth] for cyclone position, intensity, and propagation speed, showing large differences between the different EPSs. The results show that the ECMWF ensemble mean and control have the highest level of skill for all cyclone properties. The Japanese Meteorological Administration (JMA), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Met Office (UKMO), and the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) have 1 day less skill for the position of cyclones throughout the forecast range. The relative performance of the different EPSs remains the same for cyclone intensity except for NCEP, which has larger errors than for position. NCEP, the Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC), and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) all have faster intensity error growth in the earlier part of the forecast. They are also very underdispersive and significantly underpredict intensities, perhaps due to the comparatively low spatial resolutions of these EPSs not being able to accurately model the tilted structure essential to cyclone growth and decay. There is very little difference between the levels of skill of the ensemble mean and control for cyclone position, but the ensemble mean provides an advantage over the control for all EPSs except CPTEC in cyclone intensity and there is an advantage for propagation speed for all EPSs. ECMWF and JMA have an excellent spread–skill relationship for cyclone position. The EPSs are all much more underdispersive for cyclone intensity and propagation speed than for position, with ECMWF and CMC performing best for intensity and CMC performing best for propagation speed. ECMWF is the only EPS to consistently overpredict cyclone intensity, although the bias is small. BoM, NCEP, UKMO, and CPTEC significantly underpredict intensity and, interestingly, all the EPSs underpredict the propagation speed, that is, the cyclones move too slowly on average in all EPSs.

Analytical potentials for triatomic molecules IX. The prediction of anharmonic force constants from potential energy surfaces based on harmonic force fields and dissociation energies for SO2 and O3

Analytical potential energy functions which are valid at all dissociation limits have been derived for the ground states of SO2 and O3. The procedure involves minimizing the errors between the observed vibrational spectra and spectra calculated by a variational procedure. Good agreement is obtained between the observed and calculated spectra for both molecules. Comparisons are made between anharmonic force fields, previously determined from the spectral data, and the force fields obtained by differentiating the derived analytical functions at the equilibrium configurations.

Implementing a generic systolic array for genetic algorithms

We have designed a highly parallel design for a simple genetic algorithm using a pipeline of systolic arrays. The systolic design provides high throughput and unidirectional pipelining by exploiting the implicit parallelism in the genetic operators. The design is significant because, unlike other hardware genetic algorithms, it is independent of both the fitness function and the particular chromosome length used in a problem. We have designed and simulated a version of the mutation array using Xilinix FPGA tools to investigate the feasibility of hardware implementation. A simple 5-chromosome mutation array occupies 195 CLBs and is capable of performing more than one million mutations per second. I. Introduction Genetic algorithms (GAs) are established search and optimization techniques which have been applied to a range of engineering and applied problems with considerable success [1]. They operate by maintaining a population of trial solutions encoded, using a suitable encoding scheme.

Systolic random number generation for genetic algorithms

A parallel hardware random number generator for use with a VLSI genetic algorithm processing device is proposed. The design uses an systolic array of mixed congruential random number generators. The generators are constantly reseeded with the outputs of the proceeding generators to avoid significant biasing of the randomness of the array which would result in longer times for the algorithm to converge to a solution. 1 Introduction In recent years there has been a growing interest in developing hardware genetic algorithm devices [1, 2, 3]. A genetic algorithm (GA) is a stochastic search and optimization technique which attempts to capture the power of natural selection by evolving a population of candidate solutions by a process of selection and reproduction [4]. In keeping with the evolutionary analogy, the solutions are called chromosomes with each chromosome containing a number of genes. Chromosomes are commonly simple binary strings, the bits being the genes.

Singular vector ensemble forecasting systems and the prediction of flow dependent uncertainty

The ECMWF ensemble weather forecasts are generated by perturbing the initial conditions of the forecast using a subset of the singular vectors of the linearised propagator. Previous results show that when creating probabilistic forecasts from this ensemble better forecasts are obtained if the mean of the spread and the variability of the spread are calibrated separately. We show results from a simple linear model that suggest that this may be a generic property for all singular vector based ensemble forecasting systems based on only a subset of the full set of singular vectors.

Mapping and controlling molecular processes: The application of control theory and system identification algorithms to ASOPS and other fast pulse spectroscopies

Asynchronous Optical Sampling (ASOPS) [1,2] and frequency comb spectrometry [3] based on dual Ti:saphire resonators operated in a master/slave mode have the potential to improve signal to noise ratio in THz transient and IR sperctrometry. The multimode Brownian oscillator time-domain response function described by state-space models is a mathematically robust framework that can be used to describe the dispersive phenomena governed by Lorentzian, Debye and Drude responses. In addition, the optical properties of an arbitrary medium can be expressed as a linear combination of simple multimode Brownian oscillator functions. The suitability of a range of signal processing schemes adopted from the Systems Identification and Control Theory community for further processing the recorded THz transients in the time or frequency domain will be outlined [4,5]. Since a femtosecond duration pulse is capable of persistent excitation of the medium within which it propagates, such approach is perfectly justifiable. Several de-noising routines based on system identification will be shown. Furthermore, specifically developed apodization structures will be discussed. These are necessary because due to dispersion issues, the time-domain background and sample interferograms are non-symmetrical [6-8]. These procedures can lead to a more precise estimation of the complex insertion loss function. The algorithms are applicable to femtosecond spectroscopies across the EM spectrum. Finally, a methodology for femtosecond pulse shaping using genetic algorithms aiming to map and control molecular relaxation processes will be mentioned.

Whole crop cereals 2. Prediction of apparent digestibility and energy value from in vitro digestion techniques and near infrared reflectance spectroscopy and of chemical composition by near infrared reflectance spectroscopy

Samples of whole crop wheat (WCW, n = 134) and whole crop barley (WCB, n = 16) were collected from commercial farms in the UK over a 2-year period (2003/2004 and 2004/2005). Near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) was compared with laboratory and in vitro digestibility measures to predict digestible organic matter in the dry matter (DOMD) and metabolisable energy (ME) contents measured in vivo using sheep. Spectral models using the mean spectra of two scans were compared with those using individual spectra (duplicate spectra). Overall NIRS accurately predicted the concentration of chemical components in whole crop cereals apart from crude protein. ammonia-nitrogen, water-soluble carbohydrates, fermentation acids and solubility values. In addition. the spectral models had higher prediction power for in vivo DOMD and ME than chemical components or in vitro digestion methods. Overall there Was a benefit from the use of duplicate spectra rather than mean spectra and this was especially so for predicting in vivo DOMD and ME where the sample population size was smaller. The spectral models derived deal equally well with WCW and WCB and Would he of considerable practical value allowing rapid determination of nutritive value of these forages before their use in diets of productive animals. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of cottonseed longevity

The objective of this work was to determine the viability equation constants for cottonseed and to detect the occurrence and depletion of hardseededness. Three seedlots of Brazilian cultivars IAC-19 and IAC-20 were tested, using 12 moisture content levels, ranging from 2.2 to 21.7% and three storage temperatures, 40, 50 and 65 degrees C. Seed moisture content level was reached from the initial value (around 8.8%) either by rehydration, in a closed container, or by drying in desiccators containing silica gel, both at 20 degrees C. Twelve seed subsamples for each moisture content/temperature treatment were sealed in laminated aluminium-foil packets and stored in incubators at those temperatures, until complete survival curves were obtained. Seed equilibrium relative humidity was recorded. Hardseededness was detected at moisture content levels below 6% and its releasing was achieved either naturally, during storage period, or artificially through seed coat removal. The viability equation quantified the response of seed longevity to storage environment well with K-E = 9.240, C-W = 5.190, C-H = 0.03965 and C-Q = 0.000426. The lower limit estimated for application of this equation at 65 degrees C was 3.6% moisture content.

A GIS-based empirical model for vegetation prediction in Lefka Ori, Crete

The aim of the study was to establish and verify a predictive vegetation model for plant community distribution in the alti-Mediterranean zone of the Lefka Ori massif, western Crete. Based on previous work three variables were identified as significant determinants of plant community distribution, namely altitude, slope angle and geomorphic landform. The response of four community types against these variables was tested using classification trees analysis in order to model community type occurrence. V-fold cross-validation plots were used to determine the length of the best fitting tree. The final 9node tree selected, classified correctly 92.5% of the samples. The results were used to provide decision rules for the construction of a spatial model for each community type. The model was implemented within a Geographical Information System (GIS) to predict the distribution of each community type in the study site. The evaluation of the model in the field using an error matrix gave an overall accuracy of 71%. The user's accuracy was higher for the Crepis-Cirsium (100%) and Telephium-Herniaria community type (66.7%) and relatively lower for the Peucedanum-Alyssum and Dianthus-Lomelosia community types (63.2% and 62.5%, respectively). Misclassification and field validation points to the need for improved geomorphological mapping and suggests the presence of transitional communities between existing community types.

Prediction of global and local model quality in CASP8 using the ModFOLD server

The development of effective methods for predicting the quality of three-dimensional (3D) models is fundamentally important for the success of tertiary structure (TS) prediction strategies. Since CASP7, the Quality Assessment (QA) category has existed to gauge the ability of various model quality assessment programs (MQAPs) at predicting the relative quality of individual 3D models. For the CASP8 experiment, automated predictions were submitted in the QA category using two methods from the ModFOLD server-ModFOLD version 1.1 and ModFOLDclust. ModFOLD version 1.1 is a single-model machine learning based method, which was used for automated predictions of global model quality (QMODE1). ModFOLDclust is a simple clustering based method, which was used for automated predictions of both global and local quality (QMODE2). In addition, manual predictions of model quality were made using ModFOLD version 2.0-an experimental method that combines the scores from ModFOLDclust and ModFOLD v1.1. Predictions from the ModFOLDclust method were the most successful of the three in terms of the global model quality, whilst the ModFOLD v1.1 method was comparable in performance to other single-model based methods. In addition, the ModFOLDclust method performed well at predicting the per-residue, or local, model quality scores. Predictions of the per-residue errors in our own 3D models, selected using the ModFOLD v2.0 method, were also the most accurate compared with those from other methods. All of the MQAPs described are publicly accessible via the ModFOLD server at: http://www.reading.ac.uk/bioinf/ModFOLD/. The methods are also freely available to download from: http://www.reading.ac.uk/bioinf/downloads/.

Intrinsic disorder prediction from the analysis of multiple protein fold recognition models

Motivation: Intrinsic protein disorder is functionally implicated in numerous biological roles and is, therefore, ubiquitous in proteins from all three kingdoms of life. Determining the disordered regions in proteins presents a challenge for experimental methods and so recently there has been much focus on the development of improved predictive methods. In this article, a novel technique for disorder prediction, called DISOclust, is described, which is based on the analysis of multiple protein fold recognition models. The DISOclust method is rigorously benchmarked against the top.ve methods from the CASP7 experiment. In addition, the optimal consensus of the tested methods is determined and the added value from each method is quantified. Results: The DISOclust method is shown to add the most value to a simple consensus of methods, even in the absence of target sequence homology to known structures. A simple consensus of methods that includes DISOclust can significantly outperform all of the previous individual methods tested.

Constrained models of evolution lead to improved prediction of functional linkage from correlated gain and loss of genes

Motivation: We compare phylogenetic approaches for inferring functional gene links. The approaches detect independent instances of the correlated gain and loss of pairs of genes from species' genomes. We investigate the effect on results of basing evidence of correlations on two phylogenetic approaches, Dollo parsminony and maximum likelihood (ML). We further examine the effect of constraining the ML model by fixing the rate of gene gain at a low value, rather than estimating it from the data. Results: We detect correlated evolution among a test set of pairs of yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) genes, with a case study of 21 eukaryotic genomes and test data derived from known yeast protein complexes. If the rate at which genes are gained is constrained to be low, ML achieves by far the best results at detecting known functional links. The model then has fewer parameters but it is more realistic by preventing genes from being gained more than once. Availability: BayesTraits by M. Pagel and A. Meade, and a script to configure and repeatedly launch it by D. Barker and M. Pagel, are available at http://www.evolution.reading.ac.uk .

Retention time prediction and protein identification

Proteins are commonly identified through enzymatic digestion and generation of short sequence tags or fingerprints of peptide masses by mass spectrometry. Separation methods, such as liquid chromatography and electrophoresis, are often used to fractionate complex protein or peptide mixtures and these separations also provide information on the different species, such as molecular weight and isoelectric point from electrophoresis and hydrophobicity in reversed-phase chromatography. These are also properties that can be predicted from amino acid sequences derived from genomic sequences and used in protein identification. This chapter reviews recently introduced methods based on retention time prediction to extract information from chromatographic separations and the applications to protein identification in organisms with small and large genomes. Novel data on retention time prediction of posttranslationally modified peptides is also presented.

The measurement of maternal plasma corticotropin-releasing factor (CRF) and CRF-binding protein improves the early prediction of preeclampsia

In the present study we measured maternal plasma concentrations of two placental neurohormones, corticotropin-releasing factor (CRF) and CRF-binding protein (CRF-BP), in 58 at-risk pregnant women consecutively enrolled between 28 and 29 wk of pregnancy to evaluate whether their evaluation may predict third trimester-onset preeclampsia ( PE). The statistical significance was assessed by t test. The cut-off points for defining altered CRF and CRF-BP levels for prediction of PE were chosen by receiving operator characteristics curve analysis, and the probability of developing PE was calculated for several combinations of hormone testing results. CRF and CRF-BP levels were significantly ( both P < 0.0001) higher and lower, respectively, in the patients (n = 20) who later developed PE than in those who did not present PE at follow-up. CRF at the cut-off 425.95 pmol/liter achieved a sensitivity of 94.8% and a specificity of 96.9%, whereas CRF-BP at the cut-off 125.8 nmol/liter combined a sensitivity of 92.5% and a specificity of 82.5% as single markers for prediction of PE. The probability of PE was 34.5% in the whole study population, 93.75% when both CRF and CRF-BP levels were changed, and 0% if both hormone markers were unaltered. The measurement of CRF and CRF-BP levels may add significant prognostic information for predicting PE in at-risk pregnant women.