Incomplete information games of conflict and collective action

My thesis consists of three essays that investigate strategic interactions between individuals engaging in risky collective action in uncertain environments. The first essay analyzes a broad class of incomplete information coordination games with a wide range of applications in economics and politics. The second essay draws from the general model developed in the first essay to study decisions by individuals of whether to engage in protest/revolution/coup/strike. The final essay explicitly integrates state response to the analysis. The first essay, Coordination Games with Strategic Delegation of Pivotality, exhaustively analyzes a class of binary action, two-player coordination games in which players receive stochastic payoffs only if both players take a ``stochastic-coordination action''. Players receive conditionally-independent noisy private signals about the normally distributed stochastic payoffs. With this structure, each player can exploit the information contained in the other player's action only when he takes the “pivotalizing action”. This feature has two consequences: (1) When the fear of miscoordination is not too large, in order to utilize the other player's information, each player takes the “pivotalizing action” more often than he would based solely on his private information, and (2) best responses feature both strategic complementarities and strategic substitutes, implying that the game is not supermodular nor a typical global game. This class of games has applications in a wide range of economic and political phenomena, including war and peace, protest/revolution/coup/ strike, interest groups lobbying, international trade, and adoption of a new technology. My second essay, Collective Action with Uncertain Payoffs, studies the decision problem of citizens who must decide whether to submit to the status quo or mount a revolution. If they coordinate, they can overthrow the status quo. Otherwise, the status quo is preserved and participants in a failed revolution are punished. Citizens face two types of uncertainty. (a) non-strategic: they are uncertain about the relative payoffs of the status quo and revolution, (b) strategic: they are uncertain about each other's assessments of the relative payoff. I draw on the existing literature and historical evidence to argue that the uncertainty in the payoffs of status quo and revolution is intrinsic in politics. Several counter-intuitive findings emerge: (1) Better communication between citizens can lower the likelihood of revolution. In fact, when the punishment for failed protest is not too harsh and citizens' private knowledge is accurate, then further communication reduces incentives to revolt. (2) Increasing strategic uncertainty can increase the likelihood of revolution attempts, and even the likelihood of successful revolution. In particular, revolt may be more likely when citizens privately obtain information than when they receive information from a common media source. (3) Two dilemmas arise concerning the intensity and frequency of punishment (repression), and the frequency of protest. Punishment Dilemma 1: harsher punishments may increase the probability that punishment is materialized. That is, as the state increases the punishment for dissent, it might also have to punish more dissidents. It is only when the punishment is sufficiently harsh, that harsher punishment reduces the frequency of its application. Punishment Dilemma 1 leads to Punishment Dilemma 2: the frequencies of repression and protest can be positively or negatively correlated depending on the intensity of repression. My third essay, The Repression Puzzle, investigates the relationship between the intensity of grievances and the likelihood of repression. First, I make the observation that the occurrence of state repression is a puzzle. If repression is to succeed, dissidents should not rebel. If it is to fail, the state should concede in order to save the costs of unsuccessful repression. I then propose an explanation for the “repression puzzle” that hinges on information asymmetries between the state and dissidents about the costs of repression to the state, and hence the likelihood of its application by the state. I present a formal model that combines the insights of grievance-based and political process theories to investigate the consequences of this information asymmetry for the dissidents' contentious actions and for the relationship between the magnitude of grievances (formulated here as the extent of inequality) and the likelihood of repression. The main contribution of the paper is to show that this relationship is non-monotone. That is, as the magnitude of grievances increases, the likelihood of repression might decrease. I investigate the relationship between inequality and the likelihood of repression in all country-years from 1981 to 1999. To mitigate specification problem, I estimate the probability of repression using a generalized additive model with thin-plate splines (GAM-TPS). This technique allows for flexible relationship between inequality, the proxy for the costs of repression and revolutions (income per capita), and the likelihood of repression. The empirical evidence support my prediction that the relationship between the magnitude of grievances and the likelihood of repression is non-monotone.

Bogusław Śliwa (1944-1989) - działacz opozycji demokratycznej i "Solidarności" w Kaliszu

Bogusław Śliwa was born in Lvov on 6 October 1944. He graduated in law studies at Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań in 1969. Following the completion of his prosecutor’s apprenticeship he worked, among others, in Wolsztyn, Świebodzin and – from 1975 – in Kalisz. On 22 August 1978 Śliwa was fired from the public prosecutor’s office because he had attempted to detect a person who murdered during the robbery committed by a Civic Militia officer. That time he established and maintained close contacts with activists of the Workers’ Defence Committee (KOR), among others: Jacek Kuroń, Mirosław Chojecki, Adam Michnik, Bronisław Geremek, Jan Lityński, Zofia Romaszewska and Zbigniew Romaszewski. In 1978 he began to cooperate with the Kalisz group of the Movement for the Defence of Human and Civil Rights (ROPCiO). In the early 1979 this group started to publish “Wolne Słowo” in which Śliwa was a co-editor. On 28 June 1979 in Poznań he was involved in founding the Social Self-Defence Club of the Wielkopolska and Kujawy Region. In September 1980, during strikes at the FWR “Runotex” and KZKS “Winiary” in Kalisz Śliwa was an expert representing the workers. On 29 September of that year, he arranged in Kalisz a meeting of representatives and delegates of enterprises in Kalisz aimed at appointing the Board of the Inter-Enterprise Founding Committee of the Independent Self-Governing Trade Union. He became the secretary. Bogusław Śliwa also engaged in setting up and developing an information team. He was informally responsible for developing an information and printing base. Bogusław Śliwa set up “NSZZ Solidarność” magazine where he published his own articles. He also founded the “Solidarność” Workers’ Community Centre in Kalisz. it is noteworthy that it was the only community centre in Poland established by „Solidarność”. In December the Nationwide Liaison Commission of „Solidarność” appointed him to the Committee for the Defence of Prisoners of Conscience established on 10 December of that year. He participated in the information meeting of the Independent Self-Governing Trade Union of Independent Farmers “Solidarność Wiejska” held in Staw, in Szczytniki commune. During that meeting “Solidarność Wiejska” led by Mieczysław Walczykiewicz requested the authorities to liquidate the “Świt” Agricultural Production Cooperative in Cieszyków, in Szczytniki commune. Bogusław Śliwa was involved in this successful event. It was the first liquidation of cooperative in Poland. On 11 January 1981 Śliwa co-organized the 1st Regional Convention of „Solidarność” Wiejska in Kalisz. Following the so-called Bydgoszcz events of 19 March 1981 he advocated the general strike. Due to his attitude, Śliwa was listed as one of 146 „Solidarność” activists executed by the 3rd “A” Department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. According to the authorities those activists presented radical views. On 30 June 1981 at the 1st General Delegates Convention of the Kaliskie province, Śliwa, as a delegate of the Kaliskie province, was appointed to the Regional Board of „Solidarność” – Southern Wielkopolska. In July Śliwa set up in Kalisz the underground branch of the Polish Democratic Party. In 1981 Śliwa was a delegate to the 1st National Delegates Convention of „Solidarność” and co-edited with Jan Lityński the document entitled: “Message to the Working People of Eastern Europe” originated by Henryk Siciński and adopted by the 1st National Delegates Convention. On 22 November he participated in the Warsaw-held meeting founding the Self-Governing Republic Clubs “Liberty – Equality– Independence” and signed the founding declaration. On 28 of that month he co-organized with Antoni Pietkiewicz a founding meeting of the Club in Kalisz. When martial law was declared he began to hide in Kalisz. Śliwa was arrested on 25 February 1982 and interned in Ostrów Wielkopolski and then in Gębarzew and Kwidzyn. After being released on 25 November 1982, he was immediately involved in the activity of the underground movement of „Solidarność”. He edited the first two issues of “Nasza Solidarność” magazine published in Kalisz. Śliwa co-invented and co-organized the 1st May march that was independent from the authorities’ one held in Kalisz in 1983. Consequently, he was temporarily arrested and detained in Ostrów Wielkopolski. On 7 June 1983 he was released from custody. The amnesty declared on 21 July 1983 caused that the investigation against him was discontinued. In July of the same year he co-founded the Inter-Regional Coordination Commission of the Independent Self-Governing Trade Union “Solidarność” Kalisz-Konin-Sieradz. As he could not find any work and he and his family were exposed to psychological harassment, he emigrated to Sweden on 30 December 1983. He worked, among other positions, as bookbinder. He was the board secretary of the Congress of Poles in Sweden. In 1984 he commented the death of priest Jerzy Popiełuszko in “Dagens Nyheter” daily. He was also interviewed by Radio Liberty. Śliwa commenced cooperating with representatives of the „Solidarność” Coordination Office in Paris, Brussels and Stockholm. On 18 April 1985 the Military Garrison Prosecutor’s Office in Wrocław initiated investigations against Śliwa, charging him with activities detrimental to political interests of the People’s Republic of Poland. Subsequently, on 10 July 1985 this public prosecutor’s office decided to issue an arrest warrant for him. On the same day the public prosecutor suspended criminal proceedings against him. In December 1985, after the courageous escape of two brothers, Adam and Krzysztof Zieliński, from Poland to Sweden, he helped them prevent their deportation and stay in their new homeland. He expressed his opinion on this issue on Swedish television and in “ Dagens Nyheter” daily. His intervention helped them legally stay in Sweden. In 1989 he arrived in Poland. During this short visit he met and talked with his colleagues from the so-called first „Solidarność”. Bogusław Śliwa died in Stockholm on 23 November 1989. He was buried there on 7 December 1989. On 18 October 2006 he was posthumously honoured by Lech Kaczynski, President of Poland, with the Order of Polonis Restitution. On 15 June 2007 Bogusław Śliwa was posthumously granted the title of an Honorary Citizen of Kalisz by the Town Council of Kalisz.

Variation of cutting rooting ability in cultivated and wild species of Macadamia

In Australia, macadamia trees are commonly propagated by germinating rootstock seed and grafting when seedlings reach a suitable size. The production of grafted trees is a protracted and complex process, however, propagation of macadamia via cuttings represents a simpler and faster method of multiplication. Macadamias have traditionally proven difficult to propagate from cuttings, and while recent developments in the process have improved success rates, substantial variation in rooting ability between cultivars and species has been reported. The cultivar 'Beaumont' (Macadamia integrifolia × M. tetraphylla) is commonly propagated by cutting for use as a rootstock, and is relatively easy to strike while other cultivars are more difficult. There is speculation that Hawaiian cultivars are more difficult to strike from cuttings than Australian cultivars due to species and genetic composition. In this experiment, cuttings of 32 genotypes were evaluated for rooting ability. Each genotype's species profile was estimated using historical data, and used to determine species effects on survival (percentage) and rooting ability (rating 0-2). M. jansenii (100%), M. tetraphylla (84%) and M. integrifolia/tetraphylla hybrids (79%) had the highest success rates while M. integrifolia (54%) and M. ternifolia (43%) had the lowest survival. Rooting ability of M. jansenii (1.75) was significantly higher than M. ternifolia (0.49) but not significantly higher than M. tetraphylla × M. integrifolia with (1.09), M. tetraphylla (1.03) or M. integrifolia (0.88).

Contribuição para o conhecimento da geologia do Grupo das Beiras (CXG) na região do Caramulo-Buçaco, Portugal Central

O presente trabalho ocupa-se do estudo do Complexo Xisto-Grauváquico ante-ordovícico (Grupo das Beiras) na região do Caramulo-Buçaco (centro de Portugal). Em termos geológicos, a área estudada pertence à Zona Centro Ibérica e encontra-se limitada a N pelo granito do Caramulo, a S pela bacia meso-cenozóica de Arganil, a W pelo sinclinal paleozóico do Buçaco e pela bacia meso-cenozóica ocidental portuguesa e a E pelo sinclinal paleozóico de Arganil e pelo plutonito granítico de Tábua-Santa Comba Dão; no seio da área estudada encontra-se a bacia meso-cenozóica de Mortágua. Com base nas características litológicas e estruturais distinguem-se no Complexo Xisto Grauváquico 4 grandes conjuntos litológicos concordantes entre si, designados de Unidades I, II, III e IV, que se desenvolvem da base para o topo de N para S. A Unidade I situa-se a N da região. O seu limite inferior é desconhecido, e o superior posiciona-se no último conjunto arenoso com potência decamétrica. É constituída por xistos cinzentos e negros com intercalações de arenitos de espessura não superior a 100 metros e de extensão lateral quilométrica. Apresenta uma espessura mínima de 1000 m. A Unidade II apresenta consideravelmente menor proporção de material arenoso intercalado entre os pelitos comparativamente à unidade inferior. É caracterizada por apresentar um predomínio de material silto-argiloso e escassos níveis arenosos com potência não superior à dezena de metros e escassa continuidade lateral. Cartograficamente esta unidade constitui uma franja alargada de orientação próxima a E-W. Apresenta uma espessura aproximada de 1500 m. A Unidade III é caracterizada pela presença de conjuntos arenosos com extensão lateral quilométrica e espessura de várias dezenas de metros, separados por material silto-argiloso. Os limites inferior e superior estão situados respectivamente abaixo e acima dos principais conjuntos arenosos. Esta unidade apresenta uma espessura máxima estimada na ordem dos 2000 m. A Unidade IV, que é a unidade superior, apresenta um predomínio pelítico, com escassas intercalações de conjuntos arenosos. O seu limite inferior encontra-se no topo do último conjunto arenoso da Unidade III. Apresenta uma espessura mínima de 500 m. As características sedimentológicas das 4 unidades indicam uma sedimentação num ambiente de plataforma externa siliciclástica aberta, com a construção de barras e por vezes sujeita à acção de tempestades, com sucessivos períodos de superficialização e profundização numa bacia de sedimentação bastante subsidente. Em termos estruturais, para além duma deformação pré-ordovícica, que é comprovada pelo forte mergulho e dispersão da orientação dos eixos da 1ª fase varisca e da lineação de intersecção L1, a área estudada foi principalmente afectada pela Orogenia Varisca. A 1ª fase de deformação varisca (F1) gerou dobras com superfícies axiais e xistosidade associada (S1) de direcção WNW-ESE, e forte pendor para NNE. Estas dobras D1 apresentam comprimentos de onda que nunca chegam a ser quilométricos, desenvolvendo-se um grande flanco inverso denunciando a presença de uma antiforma para NNE e uma sinforma para SSW. A 2ª fase de deformação varisca (F2) actuou na parte nordeste da área estudada e é caracterizada por ter gerado dobras de comprimento de onda quilométrico, com planos axiais e xistosidade associada S2 de direcção NW-SE, subverticais ou a pender fortemente para NE. Embora com alguma dispersão, as lineações de intersecção L2 e os eixos das dobras D2 apresentam maioritariamente forte pendor para E. A direcção e tipos de estruturas da F2 sugerem uma correlação com a terceira fase definida em vários pontos da Zona Centro Ibérica e estreitamente relacionada com as intrusões graníticas. Do ponto de vista petrológico, distinguem-se várias rochas sedimentares (pelitos e arenitos) todas elas sujeitas a metamorfismo que não ultrapassa a fácies dos xistos verdes. Dentro das rochas sedimentares mais grosseiras, há a destacar a presença de arenitos vulcânicos cuja composição denuncia, não muito afastados da bacia sedimentar, a presença de aparelhos vulcânicos que estariam em actividade durante a sedimentação. Foram analisadas isotopicamente 27 amostras de metapelitos colhidas em 5 locais diferentes de forma a abranger quase toda a área estudada. Os dados isotópicos de quatro destes locais de amostragem forneceram isócronas Rb-Sr, em rocha total, com valores da ordem dos 400-440 Ma. O granito do Caramulo, datado pela isócrona Rb-Sr em amostras de rocha total, forneceu uma idade de 326±12Ma. As idades modelo Sm-Nd (manto empobrecido) de 5 amostras de metapelitos estão compreendidas entre 1.35 e 1.25 Ga. Este período de tempo pode ser considerado como correspondendo à época de diferenciação mantélica da crusta que deu lugar à maioria das áreas fonte dos metapelitos.

A comparison of in situ vs. ex situ filtration methods on the assessment of dissolved and particulate metals at hydrothermal vents

The objective of this study was to assess the impact of the filtration method (in situ vs. ex situ) on the dissolved/particulate partitioning of 12 elements in hydrothermal samples collected from the Lucky Strike vent field (Mid-Atlantic Ridge; MAR). To do so, dissolved ( <0.45 mu m) and particulate Mg, Li, Mn, U, V, As, Ba, Fe, Zn, Cd, Pb and Cu were measured using different techniques (HR-ICP-MS, ICP-AES and CCSA). Using in situ filtration as a baseline, we showed that ex situ filtration (on-board and on shore after freezing) resulted in an underestimation of the dissolved pool, which was counterbalanced by an overestimation of the particulate pool for almost all the elements studied. We also showed that on-board filtration was acceptable for the assessment of dissolved and particulate Mn, Mg, Li and U for which the measurement bias for the dissolved fraction did not exceed 3%. However, in situ filtration appeared necessary for the accurate assessment of the dissolved and particulate concentrations of V, As, Fe, Zn, Ba, Cd, Pb and Cu. In the case of Fe, on-board filtration underestimated the dissolved pool by up to 96%. Laboratory filtration (after freezing) resulted in a large bias in the dissolved and particulate concentrations, unambiguously discounting this filtration method for deep-sea chemical speciation studies. We discuss our results in light of the precipitation processes that can potentially affect the accuracy of ex situ filtration methods.

Enhanced Direct and Indirect Genetic Algorithm Approaches for a Mall Layout and Tenant Selection Problem

During our earlier research, it was recognised that in order to be successful with an indirect genetic algorithm approach using a decoder, the decoder has to strike a balance between being an optimiser in its own right and finding feasible solutions. Previously this balance was achieved manually. Here we extend this by presenting an automated approach where the genetic algorithm itself, simultaneously to solving the problem, sets weights to balance the components out. Subsequently we were able to solve a complex and non-linear scheduling problem better than with a standard direct genetic algorithm implementation.

Tectonic expression of an active slab tear from high-resolution seismic and bathymetric data offshore Sicily (Ionian Sea)

Subduction of a narrow slab of oceanic lithosphere beneath a tightly curved orogenic arc requires the presence of at least one lithospheric scale tear fault. While the Calabrian subduction beneath southern Italy is considered to be the type example of this geodynamic setting, the geometry, kinematics and surface expression of the associated lateral, slab tear fault offshore eastern Sicily remain controversial. Results from a new marine geophysical survey conducted in the Ionian Sea, using high-resolution bathymetry and seismic profiling reveal active faulting at the seafloor within a 140 km long, two-branched fault system near Alfeo Seamount. The previously unidentified 60 km long NW trending North Alfeo Fault system shows primarily strike-slip kinematics as indicated by the morphology and steep-dipping transpressional and transtensional faults. Available earthquake focal mechanisms indicate dextral strike-slip motion along this fault segment. The 80 km long SSE trending South Alfeo fault system is expressed by one or two steeply dipping normal faults, bounding the western side of a 500+ m thick, 5 km wide, elongate, syntectonic Plio-Quaternary sedimentary basin. Both branches of the fault system are mechanically capable of generating magnitude 6-7 earthquakes like those that struck eastern Sicily in 1169, 1542, and 1693.

'Enhanced Direct and Indirect Genetic Algorithm Approaches for a Mall Layout and Tenant Selection Problem'

During our earlier research, it was recognised that in order to be successful with an indirect genetic algorithm approach using a decoder, the decoder has to strike a balance between being an optimiser in its own right and finding feasible solutions. Previously this balance was achieved manually. Here we extend this by presenting an automated approach where the genetic algorithm itself, simultaneously to solving the problem, sets weights to balance the components out. Subsequently we were able to solve a complex and non-linear scheduling problem better than with a standard direct genetic algorithm implementation.

Lipid and lipid carbon stable isotope composition of the hydrothermal vent shrimp Mirocaris fortunata: evidence for nutritional dependence on photosynthetically fixed carbon

Mirocaris fortunata were sampled from the Lucky Strike hydrothermal vent area (Eiffel Tower site) on the mid-Atlantic ridge during the French DIVA 2 cruise (June 1994). Small adults (17 to 22 mm total length), although morphologically identical, could be divided into 2 categories on the basis of pigmentation, lipid composition and C-13/C-12 stable isotope ratios of fatty acids. Highly pigmented small adults (8.6 to 9.2 mu g carotenoid shrimp(-1)) contained higher levels of total lipid than similar-sized individuals containing lower levels of pigment (0.9 to 2.9 mu g carotenoid shrimp(-1)). Lipid class analysis indicated that wax esters comprised 62.5% of total lipid in the former group. These pigmented shrimp also contained high proportions of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA), particularly the phototrophic microplanktonic markers 20:5(n-3) and 22:6(n-3) (14.0 and 33.5% respectively). By contrast small adults (22 mm) and adult shrimp (25 to 26 mm) with low levels of carotenoid pigmentation contained lower amounts of total lipid, little or no wax ester and low levels of 20:5(n-3) and 22:6(n-3), but did contain 16:2(n-4) and 18:2(n-4) and the non-methylene interrupted dienes 20:2 Delta 5,13 and 22:2 Delta 7,15. GC-IRMS analysis of all fatty acids and fatty alcohols in the pigmented small adults indicated delta(13)C values of -18.2 to -27.7 parts per thousand, which is consistent with a photosynthetic carbon source for these compounds. The C-13/C-12 isotope composition of fatty acids from low-pigmented small adults and adults was more variable (-12.5 to -33.1 parts per thousand) and suggests a bimodal distribution which may be attributable to differing nutritional sources or the physiological/reproductive status of these shrimp. Samples of eggs, which are carried by the female on the pleopods, represented approximately 57% of total somatic lipid which indicates a substantial reproductive investment by this species. The egg lipids comprised high proportions of triacylglycerols (64.4 to 78.0% of total lipid) whilst the fatty acid composition was dominated by the monounsaturated fatty acids 16:1(n-7), 18:1(n-7) and 18:1(n-9), which accounted for 65.7 to 33.5% of total fatty acids. By contrast, PUFA were relatively minor components of egg lipids, particularly 20:5(n-3) and 22:6(n-3), which accounted for only 1.1 and 2.9% of total egg fatty acids respectively. This indicates that the reproductive investment by this species is supported mainly by material derived from bacterial chemosynthesis. The potential for M. fortunata hedge betting by producing larvae which either metamorphose at the vent site or adopt a bathypelagic lifestyle and delay metamorphosis to facilitate more widespread dispersal is discussed.

Solidarity, the network and the history of workers' self-management from the Gdańsk Agreement to shock therapy

This PhD thesis is an empirical research project in the field of modern Polish history. The thesis focuses on Solidarity, the Network and the idea of workers’ self-management. In addition, the thesis is based on an in-depth analysis of Solidarity archival material. The Solidarity trade union was born in August 1980 after talks between the communist government and strike leaders at the Gdansk Lenin Shipyards. In 1981 a group called the Network rose up, due to cooperation between Poland’s great industrial factory plants. The Network grew out of Solidarity; it was made up of Solidarity activists, and the group acted as an economic partner to the union. The Network was the base of a grass-roots, nationwide workers’ self-management movement. Solidarity and the self-management movement were crushed by the imposition of Martial Law in December 1981. Solidarity revived itself immediately, and the union created an underground society. The Network also revived in the underground, and it continued to promote self-management activity where this was possible. When Solidarity regained its legal status in April 1989, workers’ self-management no longer had the same importance in the union. Solidarity’s new politico-economic strategy focused on free markets, foreign investment and privatization. This research project ends in July 1990, when the new Solidarity-backed government enacted a privatization law. The government decided to transform the property ownership structure through a centralized privatization process, which was a blow for supporters of workers’ self-management. This PhD thesis provides new insight into the evolution of the Solidarity union from 1980-1990 by analyzing the fate of workers’ self-management. This project also examines the role of the Network throughout the 1980s. There is analysis of the important link between workers’ self-management and the core ideas of Solidarity. In addition, the link between political and economic reform is an important theme in this research project. The Network was aware that authentic workers’ self-management required reforms to the authoritarian political system. Workers’ self-management competed against other politico-economic ideas during the 1980s in Poland. The outcome of this competition between different reform concepts has shaped modern-day Polish politics, economics and society.

Long-Term In Situ Survey of Reactive Iron Concentrations at the EMSO-Azores Observatory

A study of the temporal dynamics of iron concentrations and temperature on a faunal assemblage at the Lucky Strike vent was performed using the Tempo ecological module at the EMSO-Azores deep-sea observatory. The CHEMINI in situ analyzer was implemented on this structure to determine reactive iron concentrations in unfiltered seawater samples along with a temperature probe. Stability tests were performed on the CHEMINI analyzer before deployment (optical module, hyperbaric tests, and deep-sea calibration) for long-term in situ analysis of reactive iron (six months, 2013–2014) at the Tour Eiffel active edifice. Recorded daily, the in situ standard (25 \mu mol.L {}^{-1} ) showed excellent reproducibility (1.07%, n=522 ), confirming satisfactory analytical performance of the CHEMINI analyzer and thus validating the iron concentrations measured by the instrument. Furthermore, the analyzer proved to be reliable and robust over time. The averaged reactive iron concentration for the six-month period remained low ([Fe] =text{7.12}\pm text{2.11} \mu mol.L {}^{-1} , n=519 ), but showed some noticeable variations with temperature. Reactive iron concentrations and temperature were significantly correlated emphasizing reactive iron stabilization over the time of deployment. Period spectra indicated strong tidal influence and relevant frequencies of four to five days for both variables.

Geologia, petrologia, geocronologia e mineralizações sulfetadas do complexo ézio, província mineral de carajás, Brasil

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Geociências, Pós-Graduação em Geologia, 2015.

Probabilistic Imaging and Dynamic Modeling of Earthquake Source Processes

Investigation of large, destructive earthquakes is challenged by their infrequent occurrence and the remote nature of geophysical observations. This thesis sheds light on the source processes of large earthquakes from two perspectives: robust and quantitative observational constraints through Bayesian inference for earthquake source models, and physical insights on the interconnections of seismic and aseismic fault behavior from elastodynamic modeling of earthquake ruptures and aseismic processes.

To constrain the shallow deformation during megathrust events, we develop semi-analytical and numerical Bayesian approaches to explore the maximum resolution of the tsunami data, with a focus on incorporating the uncertainty in the forward modeling. These methodologies are then applied to invert for the coseismic seafloor displacement field in the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake using near-field tsunami waveforms and for the coseismic fault slip models in the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake with complementary tsunami and geodetic observations. From posterior estimates of model parameters and their uncertainties, we are able to quantitatively constrain the near-trench profiles of seafloor displacement and fault slip. Similar characteristic patterns emerge during both events, featuring the peak of uplift near the edge of the accretionary wedge with a decay toward the trench axis, with implications for fault failure and tsunamigenic mechanisms of megathrust earthquakes.

To understand the behavior of earthquakes at the base of the seismogenic zone on continental strike-slip faults, we simulate the interactions of dynamic earthquake rupture, aseismic slip, and heterogeneity in rate-and-state fault models coupled with shear heating. Our study explains the long-standing enigma of seismic quiescence on major fault segments known to have hosted large earthquakes by deeper penetration of large earthquakes below the seismogenic zone, where mature faults have well-localized creeping extensions. This conclusion is supported by the simulated relationship between seismicity and large earthquakes as well as by observations from recent large events. We also use the modeling to connect the geodetic observables of fault locking with the behavior of seismicity in numerical models, investigating how a combination of interseismic geodetic and seismological estimates could constrain the locked-creeping transition of faults and potentially their co- and post-seismic behavior.

Derechos colectivos de las y los servidores públicos al amparo de las Enmiendas Constitucionales de 2015

La Constitución de la República del Ecuador vigente desde el año 2008, reconoce y garantiza derechos para los ciudadanos domiciliados en el país, entre ellos trabajadores/as y servidoras y servidores públicos. En diciembre de 2015, la Asamblea Nacional del Ecuador, mediante el procedimiento de Enmienda Constitucional unificó el régimen laboral de las personas que prestan sus servicios laborales en las instituciones y organismos estatales, debiendo adecuarse la normativa legal y secundaria a esta modificación de la Carta Magna hasta junio de 2016. En el presente trabajo abordaremos en su primer capítulo antecedentes históricos del derecho al trabajo en general y la legislación histórica que ha regido en nuestro país. En el segundo capítulo nos centraremos en distinguir cuales son las características del régimen laboral público y del privado en Ecuador y realizaremos recomendaciones en relación a derechos individuales de los servidores públicos. En el tercer capítulo haremos referencia a los Convenios Internacionales de la OIT ratificados y no ratificados por nuestro país. En el cuarto capítulo estableceremos similitudes y diferencias entre las legislaciones regionales en razón del reconocimiento de derechos colectivos para servidores públicos. En el capítulo cinco detallaremos criterios doctrinarios sobre los derechos de ejercicio colectivo, es decir: huelga, convenio colectivo y sindicalización en el sector público para finalmente en el sexto y último capítulo dar recomendaciones para la inminente reforma a la Ley Orgánica de Servicio Público, LOSEP.

Effect of firefighter boots and viscoelastic insoles on the impact force of the ground reaction force’s vertical component

The aims of the present study were to determine the effect of firefighter's boots on the vertical component of the ground reaction force (GRF) at heel strike, also known as heel strike transient and to analyze the effect of the viscoelastic insoles placed into the firefighter’s boots on this force during the gait. The magnitude of the impact force (FZI) from the vertical ground reaction force, the time to the production of this force (TZI) and the loading rate (GC) were registered. 39 firefighters without any pathology during 2 years before the study were recruited. Three different walking conditions were tested: 1) gait with firefighter's boots, 2) gait with firefighter's boots and viscoelastic insoles and 3) gait with sport shoes. The results showed a higher production and magnitude of the impact force during gait with firefighter's boots than during gait with sport shoes (13,1 vs. 2,6 % of occurrence of the impact force and 61,39 ± 35,18 %BW (body weight) vs. 49,38 ± 22,99 %BW, respectively). The gait with viscoelastic insoles placed into the firefighter's boots did not show significant differences in any of the parameters characterizing the impact force compared to the gait without insoles. The results of this study show a lower cushioning of the impact force during the gait with firefighter's boots in comparison to the gait with sport shoes and the inefficiency of the viscoelastic insoles placed inside the firefighter's boots to ameliorate the cushioning of the impact force at natural walking speed.