On measuring quality of a probabilistic commodity forecast for a system that incorporates seasonal climate forecasts

Regional commodity forecasts are being used increasingly in agricultural industries to enhance their risk management and decision-making processes. These commodity forecasts are probabilistic in nature and are often integrated with a seasonal climate forecast system. The climate forecast system is based on a subset of analogue years drawn from the full climatological distribution. In this study we sought to measure forecast quality for such an integrated system. We investigated the quality of a commodity (i.e. wheat and sugar) forecast based on a subset of analogue years in relation to a standard reference forecast based on the full climatological set. We derived three key dimensions of forecast quality for such probabilistic forecasts: reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion. A measure of reliability was required to ensure no bias in the forecast distribution. This was assessed via the slope of the reliability plot, which was derived from examination of probability levels of forecasts and associated frequencies of realizations. The other two dimensions related to changes in features of the forecast distribution relative to the reference distribution. The relationship of 13 published accuracy/skill measures to these dimensions of forecast quality was assessed using principal component analysis in case studies of commodity forecasting using seasonal climate forecasting for the wheat and sugar industries in Australia. There were two orthogonal dimensions of forecast quality: one associated with distribution shift relative to the reference distribution and the other associated with relative distribution dispersion. Although the conventional quality measures aligned with these dimensions, none measured both adequately. We conclude that a multi-dimensional approach to assessment of forecast quality is required and that simple measures of reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion provide a means for such assessment. The analysis presented was also relevant to measuring quality of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasting systems. The importance of retaining a focus on the probabilistic nature of the forecast and avoiding simplifying, but erroneous, distortions was discussed in relation to applying this new forecast quality assessment paradigm to seasonal climate forecasts. Copyright (K) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.

Historical and dialectical perspectives on the teaching of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander musics in the Australian education system

Indigenous studies (also referred to as Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander studies) has a double identity in the Australian education system, consisting of the education of Indigenous students and education of all students about Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander cultures and histories. Through explanations of the history of the inclusion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander musics in Australian music education, this article critiques ways in which these musics have been positioned in relation to a number of agendas. These include definitions of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander musics as types of Australian music, as ethnomusicological objects, as examples of postcolonial discourse, and as empowerment for Indigenous students. The site of discussion is the work of the Australian Society for Music Education, as representative of trends in Australian school-based music education, and the Centre for Aboriginal Studies in Music at the University of Adelaide, as an example of a tertiary music program for Indigenous students.

Phase equilibria and surface tension of pure fluids using a molecular layer structure theory (MLST) model

This paper presents a new model based on thermodynamic and molecular interaction between molecules to describe the vapour-liquid phase equilibria and surface tension of pure component. The model assumes that the bulk fluid can be characterised as set of parallel layers. Because of this molecular structure, we coin the model as the molecular layer structure theory (MLST). Each layer has two energetic components. One is the interaction energy of one molecule of that layer with all surrounding layers. The other component is the intra-layer Helmholtz free energy, which accounts for the internal energy and the entropy of that layer. The equilibrium between two separating phases is derived from the minimum of the grand potential, and the surface tension is calculated as the excess of the Helmholtz energy of the system. We test this model with a number of components, argon, krypton, ethane, n-butane, iso-butane, ethylene and sulphur hexafluoride, and the results are very satisfactory. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Speleothem U-series dating of semi-synchronous climate oscillations during the last deglaciation

Evidence for nearly synchronous climate oscillations during the last deglaciation has been found throughout the Northern Hemisphere but few records are based on independent time scales of calendar years. We present a rare uranium-series dated oxygen-carbon isotope record for a speleothem from Tangshan Cave, China, which demonstrates that abrupt deglacial climatic oscillations from 16 800 to 10 500 yr BP are semi-synchronous with those found in Greenland ice core records. Relatively rapid shifts in speleothem oxygen isotope ratios demonstrate that the intensity of the East Asian monsoon switched in parallel with the abrupt transitions separating the Bolling-Allerod, Younger Dryas, and pre-Boreal climatic reversals. However, the dated isotopic transitions appear to have lasted longer. Our results demonstrate the dominant role of atmospheric teleconnections in the rapid propagation of deglacial climatic signals on a hemispheric scale, and highlight the importance of U-series dated speleothems in the timing and characterization of abrupt climate change. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Recombinant expression of Munc18c in a baculovirus system and interaction with syntaxin4

Two protein families that are critical for vesicle transport are the Syntaxin and Munc18/Sec1. families of proteins. These two molecules form a high affinity complex and play an essential role in vesicle docking and fusion. Munc18c was expressed as an N-terminally His-tagged fusion protein from recombinant baculovirus in Sf9 insect cells. His-tagged Munc18c was purified to homogeneity using both cobalt-chelating affinity chromatography and gel filtration chromatography. With this simple two-step protocol, 3.5 mg of purified Munc18c was obtained from a 1 L culture. Further, the N-terminal His-tag could be removed by thrombin cleavage while the tagged protein was bound to metal affinity resin. Recombinant Munc18c produced in this way is functional, in that it forms a stable complex with the SNARE interacting partner, syntaxin4. Thus we have developed a method for producing and purifying large amounts of functional Munc18c-both tagged and detagged-from a baculovirus expression system. We have also developed a method to purify the Munc18c:syntaxin4 complex. These methods will be employed for future functional and structural studies. Crown copyright (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modified logit life table system: Principles, empirical validation, and application

Despite its widespread use, the Coale-Demeny model life table system does not capture the extensive variation in age-specific mortality patterns observed in contemporary populations, particularly those of the countries of Eastern Europe and populations affected by HIV/AIDS. Although relational mortality models, such as the Brass logit system, can identify these variations, these models show systematic bias in their predictive ability as mortality levels depart from the standard. We propose a modification of the two-parameter Brass relational model. The modified model incorporates two additional age-specific correction factors (gamma(x), and theta(x)) based on mortality levels among children and adults, relative to the standard. Tests of predictive validity show deviations in age-specific mortality rates predicted by the proposed system to be 30-50 per cent lower than those predicted by the Coale-Demeny system and 15-40 per cent lower than those predicted using the original Brass system. The modified logit system is a two-parameter system, parameterized using values of l(5) and l(60).

3: Rehabilitation principles for treating chronic musculoskeletal injuries

Evaluation of patients for rehabilitation after musculoskeletal injury involves identifying, grading and assessing the injury and its impact on the patient's normal activities. Management is guided by a multidisciplinary team, comprising the patient, doctor and physical therapist, with other health professionals recruited as required. Parallel interventions involving the various team members are specified in a customised management plan. The key component of the plan is active mobilisation utilising strengthening, flexibility and endurance exercise programs. Passive physical treatments (heat, ice, and manual therapy), as well as drug therapy and psychological interventions, are used as adjunctive therapy. Biomechanical devices or techniques (eg, orthotic devices) may also be helpful. Coexisting conditions such as depression and drug dependence are treated at the same time as the injury. Effective team communication, simulated environmental testing and, for those employed, contact with the employer facilitate a staged return to normal living, sports and occupational activities.

A low concentration of ouabain (0.18 µg/kg) enhances hypertension in spontaneously hypertensive rats by inhibiting the Na+ pump and activating the renin-angiotensin system

We investigated the effects of low ouabain concentrations on systolic (SAP) and diastolic (DAP) arterial pressures and on pressor reactivity in 3-month-old male spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHR). Arterial blood pressure (BP) and pressor reactivity to phenylephrine (PHE) were investigated before and after 0.18 μg/kg ouabain administration (N = 6). The influence of hexamethonium (N = 6), canrenone (N = 6), enalapril (N = 6), and losartan (N = 6) on ouabain actions was evaluated. Ouabain increased BP (SAP: 137 ± 5.1 to 150 ± 4.7; DAP: 93.7 ± 7.7 to 116 ± 3.5 mmHg; P < 0.05) but did not change PHE pressor reactivity. Hexamethonium reduced basal BP in control but not in ouabain-treated rats. However, hexamethonium + ouabain increased DAP sensitivity to PHE. Canrenone did not affect basal BP but blocked ouabain effects on SAP. However, after canrenone + ouabain administration, DAP pressor reactivity to PHE still increased. Enalapril and losartan reduced BP and abolished SAP and DAP responses to ouabain. Enalapril + ouabain reduced DAP reactivity to PHE, while losartan + ouabain reduced SAP and DAP reactivity to PHE. In conclusion, a small dose of ouabain administered to SHR increased BP without altering PHE pressor reactivity. Although the renin-angiotensin system (RAS), Na+ pump and autonomic reflexes are involved in the effects of ouabain on PHE reactivity, central mechanisms might blunt the actions of ouabain on PHE pressor reactivity. The effect of ouabain on SAP seems to depend on the inhibition of both Na+ pump and RAS, whereas the effect on DAP seems to depend only on RAS.

An optical flow-based sensing system for reactive mobile robot navigation

This work discusses the use of optical flow to generate the sensorial information a mobile robot needs to react to the presence of obstacles when navigating in a non-structured environment. A sensing system based on optical flow and time-to-collision calculation is here proposed and experimented, which accomplishes two important paradigms. The first one is that all computations are performed onboard the robot, in spite of the limited computational capability available. The second one is that the algorithms for optical flow and time-to-collision calculations are fast enough to give the mobile robot the capability of reacting to any environmental change in real-time. Results of real experiments in which the sensing system here proposed is used as the only source of sensorial data to guide a mobile robot to avoid obstacles while wandering around are presented, and the analysis of such results allows validating the proposed sensing system.

Neural reflex regulation of arterial pressure in pathophysiological conditions : interplay among the baroreflex, the cardiopulmonary reflexes and the chemoreflex

The maintenance of arterial pressure at levels adequate to perfuse the tissues is a basic requirement for the constancy of the internal environment and survival. The objective of the present review was to provide information about the basic reflex mechanisms that are responsible for the moment-to-moment regulation of the cardiovascular system. We demonstrate that this control is largely provided by the action of arterial and non-arterial reflexes that detect and correct changes in arterial pressure (baroreflex), blood volume or chemical composition (mechano- and chemosensitive cardiopulmonary reflexes), and changes in blood-gas composition (chemoreceptor reflex). The importance of the integration of these cardiovascular reflexes is well understood and it is clear that processing mainly occurs in the nucleus tractus solitarii, although the mechanism is poorly understood. There are several indications that the interactions of baroreflex, chemoreflex and Bezold-Jarisch reflex inputs, and the central nervous system control the activity of autonomic preganglionic neurons through parallel afferent and efferent pathways to achieve cardiovascular homeostasis. It is surprising that so little appears in the literature about the integration of these neural reflexes in cardiovascular function. Thus, our purpose was to review the interplay between peripheral neural reflex mechanisms of arterial blood pressure and blood volume regulation in physiological and pathophysiological states. Special emphasis is placed on the experimental model of arterial hypertension induced by N-nitro-L-arginine methyl ester (L-NAME) in which the interplay of these three reflexes is demonstrable.

Estudo da camada limite atmosférica em regiões metropolitanas costeiras com simulações de brisa marítima

O principal objetivo deste trabalho foi identificar e caracterizar a evolução diária da Camada Limite Atmosférica (CLA) na Região da Grande Vitória (RGV), Estado do Espírito Santo, Brasil e na Região de Dunkerque (RD), Departamento Nord Pas-de-Calais, França, avaliando a acurácia de parametrizações usadas no modelo meteorológico Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) em detectar a formação e atributos da Camada Limite Interna (CLI) que é formada pelas brisas marítimas. A RGV tem relevo complexo, em uma região costeira de topografia acidentada e uma cadeia de montanhas paralela à costa. A RD tem relevo simples, em uma região costeira com pequenas ondulações que não chegam a ultrapassar 150 metros, ao longo do domínio de estudos. Para avaliar os resultados dos prognósticos feitos pelo modelo, foram utilizados os resultados de duas campanhas: uma realizada na cidade de Dunkerque, no norte da França, em Julho de 2009, utilizando um sistema light detection and ranging (LIDAR), um sonic detection and ranging (SODAR) e dados de uma estação meteorológica de superfície (EMS); outra realizada na cidade de Vitória – Espírito Santo, no mês de julho de 2012, também usando um LIDAR, um SODAR e dados de uma EMS. Foram realizadas simulações usando três esquemas de parametrizações para a CLA, dois de fechamento não local, Yonsei University (YSU) e Asymmetric Convective Model 2 (ACM2) e um de fechamento local, Mellor Yamada Janjic (MYJ) e dois esquemas de camada superficial do solo (CLS), Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) e Noah. Tanto para a RGV quanto para a RD, foram feitas simulações com as seis possíveis combinações das três parametrizações de CLA e as duas de CLS, para os períodos em que foram feitas as campanhas, usando quatro domínios aninhados, sendo os três maiores quadrados com dimensões laterais de 1863 km, 891 km e 297 km, grades de 27 km, 9 km e 3 km, respectivamente, e o domínio de estudo, com dimensões de 81 km na direção Norte-Sul e 63 km na Leste-Oeste, grade de 1 km, com 55 níveis verticais, até um máximo de, aproximadamente, 13.400 m, mais concentrados próximos ao solo. Os resultados deste trabalho mostraram que: a) dependendo da configuração adotada, o esforço computacional pode aumentar demasiadamente, sem que ocorra um grande aumento na acurácia dos resultados; b) para a RD, a simulação usando o conjunto de parametrizações MYJ para a CLA com a parametrização Noah produziu a melhor estimativa captando os fenômenos da CLI. As simulações usando as parametrizações ACM2 e YSU inferiram a entrada da brisa com atraso de até três horas; c) para a RGV, a simulação que usou as parametrizações YSU para a CLA em conjunto com a parametrização Noah para CLS foi a que conseguiu fazer melhores inferências sobre a CLI. Esses resultados sugerem a necessidade de avaliações prévias do esforço computacional necessário para determinadas configurações, e sobre a acurácia de conjuntos de parametrizações específicos para cada região pesquisada. As diferenças estão associadas com a capacidade das diferentes parametrizações em captar as informações superficiais provenientes das informações globais, essenciais para determinar a intensidade de mistura turbulenta vertical e temperatura superficial do solo, sugerindo que uma melhor representação do uso de solo é fundamental para melhorar as estimativas sobre a CLI e demais parâmetros usados por modelos de dispersão de poluentes atmosféricos.

Climate governance in an international system under conservative hegemony: the role of major powers

In the last five years, climate change has been established as a central civilizational driver of our time. As a result of this development, the most diversified social processes - as well as the fields of science which study them - have had their dynamics altered. In International Relations, this double challenge could be explained as follows: 1) in empirical terms, climate change imposes a deepening of cooperation levels on the international community, considering the global common character of the atmosphere; and 2) to International Relations as a discipline, climate change demands from the scientific community a conceptual review of the categories designed to approach the development of global climate governance. The goal of this article is to discuss in both conceptual and empirical terms the structure of global climate change governance, through an exploratory research, aiming at identifying the key elements that allow understanding its dynamics. To do so, we rely on the concept of climate powers. This discussion is grounded in the following framework: we now live in an international system under conservative hegemony that is unable to properly respond to the problems of interdependence, among which - and mainly -, the climate issue.

Between system maker and privileges taker: the role of China in the Greater Mekong Sub-region

Utilizing China's leadership projects in the Great Mekong Sub-Region (GMS) as a case study, this paper aims to investigate whether China qualifies as an international leader. This work argues that its geographic position and economic rise allow China to be a "system maker and privilege taker," which is a dual role forming in economic-political relations in the GMS in the last ten years. China is among major driving forces to set up an economic zone in GMS. Growing Chinese regional power is intimately related to the creation of various hubs connecting regional transportation, communication and energy systems that foster the economic development of this region. However, China also proves dark sides of rising powers which take advantage of their privileges to gain benefits. As a "system maker" with its own position and capability, China has notably benefited from building hydropower systems. More importantly, while China is pursuing its benefits and privileges, its hydropower projects have caused some negative effects for the ecosystem in the region. The inflation of dam constructions in both China and GMS countries is raising concerns about using natural resources of the Mekong River. Our concluding part addresses the pressing need to start a serious discussion on the balance between national interests and regional solidarity within the formulation of Chinese foreign policy in GMS.

Environmental issues and international relations, a new global (dis)order - the role of International Relations in promoting a concerted international system

Is it possible to talk about the rise of a new global (dis)order founded on the challenges posed by environmental issues? Through the review of the state of the art on the subject, this article analyzes the growing importance of the environment, and natural resources in particular, in international relations; and aims to raise awareness among International Relations scholars to the potential positive impact of the development of the discipline in integration with global environmental change studies.