Preliminary report on data mining techniques for life prediction

This project is an extension of a previous CRC project (220-059-B) which developed a program for life prediction of gutters in Queensland schools. A number of sources of information on service life of metallic building components were formed into databases linked to a Case-Based Reasoning Engine which extracted relevant cases from each source. In the initial software, no attempt was made to choose between the results offered or construct a case for retention in the casebase. In this phase of the project, alternative data mining techniques will be explored and evaluated. A process for selecting a unique service life prediction for each query will also be investigated. This report summarises the initial evaluation of several data mining techniques.

Sydney Opera House : facilities management exemplar project

The paper presents an interim summary of research and case studies being undertaken in the Sydney Opera House FM Exemplar Project covering procurement, benchmarking and building information models. The final outcomes of the FM Exemplar Project will be presented through various forums open to all FM practitioners and published in Australia and elsewhere through relevant journals. Sydney Opera House is an Australian icon, attracting some 4.5 million visitors per year who admire its built form and enjoy an evening of theatre. The building is the attraction, part of the experience. Therefore, facilities management is critical to the success of the Sydney Opera House enterprise and an ideal subject for the study of facilities management. Significantly the three research themes are heavily intertwined – effective risk sharing in procurement requires historic information and benchmarks for future performance, benchmarking gathers vast quantities of data that can only be exploited if properly related to one another and a building information model provides the means to manage such data. The case studies are emerging as real-life examples of how one organisation is addressing FM issues common to many, and will provide useful lessons for practitioners pursing similar strategies in their own organisations.

Towards a rule-based matrix for evaluating distress mechanisms in bridges

The effective management of bridge stock involves making decisions as to when to repair, remedy, or do nothing, taking into account the financial and service life implications. Such decisions require a reliable diagnosis as to the cause of distress and an understanding of the likely future degradation. Such diagnoses are based on a combination of visual inspections, laboratory tests on samples and expert opinions. In addition, the choice of appropriate laboratory tests requires an understanding of the degradation mechanisms involved. Under these circumstances, the use of expert systems or evaluation tools developed from “realtime” case studies provides a promising solution in the absence of expert knowledge. This paper addresses the issues in bridge infrastructure management in Queensland, Australia. Bridges affected by alkali silica reaction and chloride induced corrosion have been investigated and the results presented using a mind mapping tool. The analysis highights that several levels of rules are required to assess the mechanism causing distress. The systematic development of a rule based approach is presented. An example of this application to a case study bridge has been used to demonstrate that preliminary results are satisfactory.

Re-life of buildings - decision support tools for maximising project efficiency

This paper describes the process adopted in developing an integrated decision support framework for planning of office building refurbishment projects, with specific emphasize on optimising rentable floor space, structural strengthening, residual life and sustainability. Expert opinion on the issues to be considered in a tool is being captured through the DELPHI process, which is currently ongoing. The methodology for development of the integrated tool will be validated through decisions taken during a case study project: refurbishment of CH1 building of Melbourne City Council, which will be followed through to completion by the research team. Current status of the CH1 planning will be presented in the context of the research project.

Citizen journalism and political participation : the youdecide project and the 2007 Australian Federal Election

The 2007 Australian Federal election not only saw the election of a Labor government after 11 years of John Howard’s conservative Coalition government. It also saw new levels of political engagement through the Internet, including the rise of citizen journalism as an alternative outlet and mode of reporting on the election. This paper reports on the You Decide 2007 project, an initiative undertaken by a QUT-based research team to facilitate online news reporting on the election on a ‘hyper-local’, electorate-based model. We evaluate the You Decide initiative on the basis of: promoting greater citizen participation in Australian politics; new ways of engaging citizens and key stakeholders in policy deliberation; establishing new links between mainstream media and independent online media; and broadening the base of political participation to include a wider range of citizen and groups.

Construction projects immediate health check : a CSF & KPI approach

Many factors have the potential to influence human health. These factors need to be monitored to maintain health. As is the case with human health, construction projects have a number of critical factors that can facilitate a broad evaluation of project health. In order to use these factors as an indication of health, they need to be assessed. This assessment can help to achieve desired outcomes for the project. This paper discusses the approach of assessing Critical Success Factors (CSFs) using Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) to ascertain the immediate health of a construction project. This approach is applicable to all phases of construction projects and many construction procurement methods. KPIs have been benchmarked on the basis of industry standards and historical data. The robustness of the KPIs to assess the immediate health of a project has been validated using Australian and international case studies.

Project diagnostics : assessing the condition of projects and identifying poor health combing forces

In many cases, construction projects do not achieve the objectives that the project participants set for them. If participants could better understand how their project is performing overall, at various stages of its delivery, then the opportunities to achieve project success would almost certainly be greater. This paper documents a method of assessing the status of a project, at a point in its design or construction phase, or after completion. The status is assessed in terms of up to seven (7) key success factors. Any evidence of less than adequate performance in these performance areas is scrutinised to seek out the root causes of why this situation is happening. Using these identified root causes of under performance, general suggestions can then be made as to how to return the project to good health. A software package that assists in assessing the status of the project has been developed. The package is currently being calibrated before commercial release.

Project Diagnostics : Providing Successful Project Outcomes

Project Diagnostics is a tool for construction industry stakeholders wishing to improve project delivery and outcomes. This software identifies areas of poor project health, then establishes probable root causes and provides suggested remedial measures. Its focus is to act as an advanced warning system for construction projects that are failing to meet predetermined objectives based on the critical success factors (CSFs) of cost, time, quality, safety, relationships, environment and stakeholder value.

An institutional understanding of triple bottom line evaluations and the use of social and environmental metrics

Measuring social and environmental metrics of property is necessary for meaningful triple bottom line (TBL) assessments. This paper demonstrates how relevant indicators derived from environmental rating systems provide for reasonably straightforward collations of performance scores that support adjustments based on a sliding scale. It also highlights the absence of a corresponding consensus of important social metrics representing the third leg of the TBL tripod. Assessing TBL may be unavoidably imprecise, but if valuers and managers continue to ignore TBL concerns, their assessments may soon be less relevant given the emerging institutional milieu informing and reflecting business practices and society expectations.

Forecasting trends in the Brisbane central business district office market

The Queensland Department of Public Works (DPW) holds a significant interest in the Brisbane Central Business District (CBD) in controlling approximately 20 percent of the office space within its confines. This comprises a total of 333,903 square metres of space, of which 170,111 square metres is owned and 163,792 square metres is leased from the private sector. The department’s nominal ownership extends to several enduring, landmark buildings as well as several modern office towers. The portfolio includes the oldest building in the CBD, being the former Commissariat Stores building and one of the newest, a 15,000 square metre office tower under construction at 33 Charlotte Street.

The role of decision-maker preferences in tenancy selection of CBD office accommodation – preliminary literature review

The literature and anecdotal evidence suggests that that there is more to tenancy selection (firm location) than the profit maximisation drive that traditional neo-classical economic location theory suggests. In the first instance these models assume property markets are rational and perfectly competitive; the CBD office market is clearly neither rational nor perfectly competitive. This fact alone relegates such models to the margins of usefulness for an industry that seeks to satisfy tenant demand in order to optimise returns on capital invested. Acknowledgment of property market imperfections are universally accepted to the extent that all contemporary texts discuss the lack of a coherent centralised market place and incomplete and poorly disseminated information processes as fundamental inadequacies which characterise the property market inefficiencies. Less well researched are the facets of the market which allow the observer to determine market activity to be significantly irrational. One such facet is that of ‘decision maker preferences’. The decision to locate a business operation at one location as opposed to another seems ostensibly a routine choice based on short, medium and long term business objectives. These objectives are derived from a process of strategic planning by one or more individuals whose goal is held to be to optimise outcomes which benefit the business (and presumably those employed within it). However the decision making processes appear bounded by how firms function, the institutional context in which they operate, as well as by opportunistic behaviour by individual decision makers who allow personal preferences to infiltrate and ‘corrupt’ the process. In this way, history, culture, geography, as well as institutions all become significant to the extent that these influence and shape individual behaviour which in turn determine the morphology of individual preferences, as well as providing a conduit for them to take effect. This paper exams historical and current literature on the impact of individual behaviour in the decision making process within organisations as a precursor to an investigation of the tenancy decision making process within the CBD office market. Literature on the topic falls within a number of research disciplines, philosophy, psychology and economics to name a few.

What will the next buyer pay? the key to investing in property

Most investors look at the initial return (or yield) that they will receive from an investment property, but this is only part of the picture. The more important issue is what capital appreciation will be achieved. Unless an investment property will deliver substantial capital appreciation, it is unlikely to be a good investment in financial terms.

eValuBuild

The overall goal of the project was to provide a tool for improved investment decision making for functional performance of investment property. The evaluation examines both ex post and ex ante building performance within operational and investment contexts and considers the resultant financial, environmental and social impacts.

Framework for investment decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

A study has been conducted to investigate current practices on decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure project investments. It was found that many European countries such as the UK, France, Germany including Australia use scenarios for the investigation of the effects of risk and uncertainty of project investments. Different alternative scenarios are mostly considered during the engineering economic cost-benefit analysis stage. For instance, the World Bank requires an analysis of risks in all project appraisals. Risk in economic evaluation needs to be addressed by calculating sensitivity of the rate of return for a number of events. Risks and uncertainties of project developments arise from various sources of errors including data, model and forecasting errors. It was found that the most influential factors affecting risk and uncertainty resulted from forecasting errors. Data errors and model errors have trivial effects. It was argued by many analysts that scenarios do not forecast what will happen but scenarios indicate only what can happen from given alternatives. It was suggested that the probability distributions of end-products of the project appraisal, such as cost-benefit ratios that take forecasting errors into account, are feasible decision tools for economic evaluation. Political, social, environmental as well as economic and other related risk issues have been addressed and included in decision-making frameworks, such as in a multi-criteria decisionmaking framework. But no suggestion has been made on how to incorporate risk into the investment decision-making process.