Can we improve the statistical analysis of stroke trials? Statistical re-analysis of functional outcomes in stroke trials

Background: Most large acute stroke trials have been neutral. Functional outcome is usually analysed using a yes or no answer, e.g. death or dependency vs. independence. We assessed which statistical approaches are most efficient in analysing outcomes from stroke trials. Methods: Individual patient data from acute, rehabilitation and stroke unit trials studying the effects of interventions which alter functional outcome were assessed. Outcomes included modified Rankin Scale, Barthel Index, and ‘3 questions’. Data were analysed using a variety of approaches which compare two treatment groups. The results for each statistical test for each trial were then compared. Results: Data from 55 datasets were obtained (47 trials, 54,173 patients). The test results differed substantially so that approaches which use the ordered nature of functional outcome data (ordinal logistic regression, t-test, robust ranks test, bootstrapping the difference in mean rank) were more efficient statistically than those which collapse the data into 2 groups (chi square) (ANOVA p<0.001). The findings were consistent across different types and sizes of trial and for the different measures of functional outcome. Conclusions: When analysing functional outcome from stroke trials, statistical tests which use the original ordered data are more efficient and more likely to yield reliable results. Suitable approaches included ordinal logistic regression, t-test, and robust ranks test.

Can we improve the statistical analysis of stroke trials? Statistical reanalysis of functional outcomes in stroke trials

Background and Purpose—Most large acute stroke trials have been neutral. Functional outcome is usually analyzed using a yes or no answer, eg, death or dependency versus independence. We assessed which statistical approaches are most efficient in analyzing outcomes from stroke trials. Methods—Individual patient data from acute, rehabilitation and stroke unit trials studying the effects of interventions which alter functional outcome were assessed. Outcomes included modified Rankin Scale, Barthel Index, and “3 questions”. Data were analyzed using a variety of approaches which compare 2 treatment groups. The results for each statistical test for each trial were then compared. Results—Data from 55 datasets were obtained (47 trials, 54 173 patients). The test results differed substantially so that approaches which use the ordered nature of functional outcome data (ordinal logistic regression, t test, robust ranks test, bootstrapping the difference in mean rank) were more efficient statistically than those which collapse the data into 2 groups (2; ANOVA, P0.001). The findings were consistent across different types and sizes of trial and for the different measures of functional outcome. Conclusions—When analyzing functional outcome from stroke trials, statistical tests which use the original ordered data are more efficient and more likely to yield reliable results. Suitable approaches included ordinal logistic regression, test, and robust ranks test.

The patient-provider relationship and antenatal care uptake at two referral hospitals in Malawi: A qualitative study

Background In post-stroke patients, impairment of quality of life (QOL) has been associated with functional impairment, age, anxiety, depression, and fatigue. Good social support, higher education, and better socioeconomic status are associated with better QOL among stroke survivors. In Africa, studies from Nigeria and Tanzania have reported on post-stroke QOL. Background Approximately 90% of Malawian women attend antenatal care at least once during their pregnancies; however, most mothers first present during months five and six and do not adhere to the World Health Organization’s recommended four visits. The objective of this study was to explore the role the patient-provider relationship has on antenatal care uptake. Methods A qualitative study, consisting of interviews with 20 urban pregnant mothers and eight health workers, was conducted from September to December 2014. Two large tertiary care hospitals in the Central and Southern regions of Malawi were selected as study sites. Results Several factors influenced antenatal care attendance. Significant barriers reported included the patient-provider relationship, clinic wait times, family and friend support, distance from home to the clinic, transportation, cost, and number of visits. The patient-provider relationship appears to have a large impact on antenatal clinic participation. Mothers indicated that health workers often mistreat or demean them during visits. Additionally, health workers revealed that, due to staff shortages, patients often do not receive the care they deserve. Conclusions The results of this study suggest that, in addition to other factors, healthcare provider attitudes influence antenatal clinic attendance. Improving the patient-provider relationship may increase antenatal clinic attendance and decrease pregnancy complications during pregnancy. Professional development opportunities and quality improvement programmes are would help improve patient care and health outcomes while the continued staff shortages in the country are addressed.

Predictors of Patient Activation Among Underserved Patients in a Nurse-managed Health Center: A Pilot Study

The concept of patient activation has gained traction as the term referring to patients who understand their role in the care process and have “the knowledge, skills and confidence” necessary to manage their illness over time (Hibbard & Mahoney, 2010). Improving health outcomes for vulnerable and underserved populations who bear a disproportionate burden of health disparities presents unique challenges for nurse practitioners who provide primary care in nurse-managed health centers. Evidence that activation improves patient self-management is prompting the search for theory-based self-management support interventions to activate patients for self-management, improve health outcomes, and sustain long-term gains. Yet, no previous studies investigated the relationship between Self-determination Theory (SDT; Deci & Ryan, 2000) and activation. The major purpose of this study, guided by the Triple Aim (Berwick, Nolan, & Whittington, 2008) and nested in the Chronic Care Model (Wagner et al., 2001), was to examine the degree to which two constructs– Autonomy Support and Autonomous Motivation– independently predicted Patient Activation, controlling for covariates. For this study, 130 nurse-managed health center patients completed an on-line 38-item survey onsite. The two independent measures were the 6-item Modified Health Care Climate Questionnaire (mHCCQ; Williams, McGregor, King, Nelson, & Glasgow, 2005; Cronbach’s alpha =0.89) and the 8-item adapted Treatment Self-Regulation Questionnaire (TSRQ; Williams, Freedman, & Deci, 1998; Cronbach’s alpha = 0.80). The Patient Activation Measure (PAM-13; Hibbard, Mahoney, Stock, & Tusler, 2005; Cronbach’s alpha = 0.89) was the dependent measure. Autonomy Support was the only significant predictor, explaining 19.1% of the variance in patient activation. Five of six autonomy support survey items regressed on activation were significant, illustrating autonomy supportive communication styles contributing to activation. These results suggest theory-based patient, provider, and system level interventions to enhance self-management in primary care and educational and professional development curricula. Future investigations should examine additional sources of autonomy support and different measurements of autonomous motivation to improve the predictive power of the model. Longitudinal analyses should be conducted to further understand the relationship between autonomy support and autonomous motivation with patient activation, based on the premise that patient activation will sustain behavior change.

Clinical outcomes of kidney transplants on patients with end-stage renal disease secondary to lupus nephritis, polycystic kidney disease and diabetic nephropathy

Background: Patients with lupus nephritis could progress to endstage renal disease (10-22%); hence, kidney transplants should be considered as the treatment of choice for these patients. Objective: To evaluate the clinical outcomes after kidney transplants in patients with chronic kidney diseases secondary to lupus nephritis, polycystic kidney disease and diabetes nephropathy at Pablo Tobon Uribe Hospital. Methods: A descriptive and retrospective study performed at one kidney transplant center between 2005 and 2013. Results: A total of 136 patients, 27 with lupus nephritis (19.9%), 31 with polycystic kidney disease (22.8%) and 78 with diabetes nephropathy (57.4%), were included in the study. The graft survivals after one, three and five years were 96.3%, 82.5% and 82.5% for lupus nephritis; 90%, 86% and 76.5% for polycystic kidney disease and 91.7%, 80.3% and 67.9% for diabetes nephropathy, respectively, with no significant differences (p= 0.488); the rate of lupus nephritis recurrence was 0.94%/person-year. The etiology of lupus vs diabetes vs polycystic disease was not a risk factor for a decreased time of graft survival (Hazard ratio: 1.43; 95% CI: 0.52-3.93). Conclusion: Kidney transplant patients with end stage renal disease secondary to lupus nephritis has similar graft and patient survival success rates to patients with other kidney diseases. The complication rate and risk of recurrence for lupus nephritis are low. Kidney transplants should be considered as the treatment of choice for patients with end stage renal disease secondary to lupus nephritis.

If a trauma patient is tachycardic, should we call for a counsellor?

BACKGROUND: It has been suggested in the literature that raised heart rate in the early period after trauma is associated with the development of post-traumatic psychopathology, but little account has been taken of the potential confounding effect of injury severity.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: A cohort of 154 patients, studied as part of a wider investigation of trauma outcomes, was included. Initial heart rate in the accident & emergency department, and injury severity score and new injury severity scores were recorded. Patients completed the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-28) as a measure of psychopathology at presentation and again at two- and six-month follow-up.

RESULTS: There was no relationship between psychopathology at presentation and initial heart rate or injury severity. Raised heart rate was associated with post-traumatic psychopathology at two months but not at six months. When the potential confounding effect of injury severity was controlled for, there was no independent correlation between heart rate and post-traumatic psychopathology. Injury severity score and new injury severity scores were strongly associated with GHQ-28 caseness.

CONCLUSION: Post-traumatic tachycardia is not associated with development of psychopathology, but injury severity is. Previous studies that have suggested a link between tachycardia and development of psychopathology are flawed because they have not considered the confounding effect of severity of injury.

Comparison of patient-reported need of psycho-oncologic support and the doctor's perspective: how do they relate to disease severity in melanoma patients?

Objective: Psycho-neuro-immune research suggests an association between cancer outcomes and psychosocial distress. Objective criteria to determine patients’ levels of distress are important to establish potential links to disease outcomes. Methods: We compared three patient-reported with one doctor-reported measures of psychooncologic distress frequently used in routine cancer care and investigated associations with standard disease severity parameters in melanoma patients. We enrolled n = 361 patients, successively seen at two outpatient university clinics in Germany. In the naturalistic study, n = 222 patients had been diagnosed <180 days and were seen for the first time (Group I); n = 139 had been diagnosed >180 days and were in after-care (Group II). Results: Across groups, only moderate associations were seen between patient- reported and doctorreported measures. Regarding clinical variables, disease severity and perceived need of psychooncologic support reported by patients or doctors showed hardly any association. After subgroup stratification, in patients of Group II, patient-reported and doctor-reported instruments showed some small associations with disease parameters commonly linked to more rapid cancer progression in patients who are in cancer after-care. Conclusions: Overall, the few and low associations suggest that need of psycho-oncologic support and clinical variables were largely independent of each other and doctors’ perception may not reflect the patient’s view. Therefore, the assessment of the patient perspective is indispensable to ensure that melanoma patients receive appropriate support, as such need cannot be derived from other disease parameters or proxy report. More research is needed applying psychometrically robust instruments that are ideally combined with sensitive biomarkers to disentangle psycho-neuro-immune implications in melanoma patients.

Using Patient Health Questionnaire-9 item parameters of a common metric resulted in similar depression scores compared to independent item response theory model reestimation

Objectives: To investigate the validity of a common depression metric in independent samples. Study Design and Setting: We applied a common metrics approach based on item-response theory for measuring depression to four German-speaking samples that completed the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9). We compared the PHQ item parameters reported for this common metric to reestimated item parameters that derived from fitting a generalized partial credit model solely to the PHQ-9 items. We calibrated the new model on the same scale as the common metric using two approaches (estimation with shifted prior and StockingeLord linking). By fitting a mixed-effects model and using BlandeAltman plots, we investigated the agreement between latent depression scores resulting from the different estimation models. Results: We found different item parameters across samples and estimation methods. Although differences in latent depression scores between different estimation methods were statistically significant, these were clinically irrelevant. Conclusion: Our findings provide evidence that it is possible to estimate latent depression scores by using the item parameters from a common metric instead of reestimating and linking a model. The use of common metric parameters is simple, for example, using a Web application (http://www.common-metrics.org) and offers a long-term perspective to improve the comparability of patient-reported outcome measures.

Patient physiological status during emergency care and rapid response team or cardiac arrest team activation during early hospital admission

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to examine the relationship between rapid response team (RRT) or cardiac arrest team (CAT) activation within 72 h of emergency admission and (i) physiological status in the emergency department (ED) and (ii) risk for ICU admission and in-hospital mortality.

METHODS: A retrospective matched cohort study was conducted in three hospitals in Melbourne, Australia. The exposed cohort (n=660) included randomly selected adults admitted to the medical or surgical ward through the ED who had RRT or CAT activation within 72 h of admission. Unexposed matched controls (n=1320) did not have RRT or CAT activation.

RESULTS: The exposed cohort was more likely to have physiological abnormalities fulfilling hospital RRT activation criteria during ED care (36.7 vs. 23.8%, P<0.001). After adjusting for confounders, tachypnoea (adjusted odds ratio=1.92, 95% confidence interval: 1.38-2.67) or hypotension (AOR=1.43, 95% confidence interval: 1.00-2.03), fulfilling RRT activation criteria during ED care, was associated with RRT or CAT activation within 72 h of admission. The exposed cohort had more in-hospital deaths (16.5 vs. 3.6%, P<0.001), more unexpected in-hospital deaths (2.05 vs. 0.2%, P<0.001), more ICU admissions (11.8 vs. 0.7%, P<0.001) and longer lengths of hospital stay (median=8 vs. 5 days, P<0.001).

CONCLUSION: CAT/RRT activations within 72 h of emergency admission are associated with higher mortality and increased length of stay. Factors associated with CAT/RRT activation in the wards are often identifiable when patients are in the ED. Further studies are required to determine whether early identification and intervention in patients at risk for RRT or CAT activation can improve their eventual outcomes.

Patient physiological status at the emergency department-ward interface and emergency calls for clinical deterioration during early hospital admission

AIMS: To examine the relationship between physiological status at the emergency department-ward interface and emergency calls (medical emergency team or cardiac arrest team activation) during the first 72 hours of hospital admission. BACKGROUND: Ward adverse events are related to abnormal physiology in emergency department however the relationship between physiology at the emergency department-ward interface and ward adverse events is unknown. DESIGN: Descriptive and exploratory design. METHODS: The study involved 1980 patients at three hospitals in Melbourne Australia: i) 660 randomly selected adults admitted via the emergency department to medical or surgical wards during 2012 and who had an emergency call; and ii) 1320 adults without emergency calls matched for gender, triage category, usual residence, admitting unit and age. RESULTS/FINDINGS: The median age was 78 years and 48·8% were males. The median time to the first emergency call was 18·8 hours and ≥1 abnormal parameters were documented in 34·9% of patients during the last hour of ED care and 47·1% of patients during first hour of ward care. Emergency calls were significantly more common in patients with heart rate and conscious state abnormalities during the last hour of emergency care and abnormal oxygen saturation, heart rate or respiratory rate during the first hour of ward care. Medical emergency team afferent limb failure occurred in 55·3% patients with medical emergency team activation criteria during first hour of ward care. CONCLUSION: The use of physiological status at the emergency department-ward interface to guide care planning and reasons for and outcomes of medical emergency team afferent limb failure are important areas for future research.

A randomised trial of the Flinders Program to improve patient self-management competencies in a range of chronic conditions : study rationale and protocol

Background: Supporting self management is seen as an important health service strategy in dealing with the large and increasing health burden of chronic conditions. Several types of self-management programs are available. Evidence to date suggests that disease specific and lay-led self management programs provide only part of the support needed for improved outcomes. The Flinders Program is promising as a generic self management intervention, which can be combined with targeted disease specific and lay-led interventions, but it has yet to be evaluated for a range of chronic conditions using a rigorous controlled trial design. This paper gives the rationale for a randomised controlled trial and process evaluation of the Flinders Program of chronic condition self-management in community practice, and details and justifies the design of such a study.Method: The design for a randomised trial and associated process evaluation, suited to evaluation of a complex and behavioural intervention as it is applied in actual practice, is presented and justified.Conclusion: A randomised trial of the Flinders Program is required and a functional design is presented. Results from this trial, currently underway, will test the effectiveness of the Flinders Program in improving patient competencies in self-management of chronic conditions in practice conditions. A process evaluation alongside the trial will explore system, provider and patient factors associated with greater and lesser Program effectiveness.

An inpatient treatment program for people with gambling problems : synopsis and early outcomes

The Statewide Gambling Therapy Service (SGTS) specialises in providing treatment for clients with gambling disorders and other co-related mental health conditions. During the period 2008–2009, approximately 1000 clients with gambling disorders diagnosed using the Victorian Gambling Screen (VGS) sought treatment through SGTS. Of these clients, 53 were admitted to an inpatient treatment program offered by the service. This paper reports initial clinical assessments and treatment outcomes from this inpatient program. A key consideration for inclusion in the inpatient treatment program was the complexity of client clinical diagnoses. Treatment involved cognitive behavioural therapy and graded exposure therapy with client progress in treatment being assessed using a range of standard clinical measures. Results include predicted values across a 12-month period (using the Victorian Gambling Screen, Kessler 10, and Work and Social Adjustment Scale) and indicate that scores across all measures might be expected to improve rapidly in the first 6 months post-treatment before slowing and levelling around 6–12 months. These findings suggest that the intensive inpatient gambling treatment program described here is a viable treatment option for participants presenting with a diagnosed gambling disorder and other co-occurring and complex mental health conditions.

Clinical trial adaptation by matching evidence in complementary patient sub-groups of auxiliary blinding questionnaire responses

Clinical trial adaptation refers to any adjustment of the trial protocol after the onset of the trial. Such adjustment may take on various forms, including the change in the dose of administered medicines, the frequency of administering an intervention, the number of trial participants, or the duration of the trial, to name just some possibilities. The main goal is to make the process of introducing new medical interventions to patients more efficient, either by reducing the cost or the time associated with evaluating their safety and efficacy. The principal challenge, which is an outstanding research problem, is to be found in the question of how adaptation should be performed so as to minimize the chance of distorting the outcome of the trial. In this paper we propose a novel method for achieving this. Unlike most of the previously published work, our approach focuses on trial adaptation by sample size adjustment i.e. by reducing the number of trial participants in a statistically informed manner. We adopt a stratification framework recently proposed for the analysis of trial outcomes in the presence of imperfect blinding and based on the administration of a generic auxiliary questionnaire that allows the participants to express their belief concerning the assigned intervention (treatment or control). We show that this data, together with the primary measured variables, can be used to make the probabilistically optimal choice of the particular sub-group a participant should be removed from if trial size reduction is desired. Extensive experiments on a series of simulated trials are used to illustrate the effectiveness of our method.

The impact of a line probe assay based diagnostic algorithm on time to treatment initiation and treatment outcomes for multidrug resistant TB patients in Arkhangelsk region, Russia

BACKGROUND: In the Arkhangelsk region of Northern Russia, multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis (TB) rates in new cases are amongst the highest in the world. In 2014, MDR-TB rates reached 31.7% among new cases and 56.9% among retreatment cases. The development of new diagnostic tools allows for faster detection of both TB and MDR-TB and should lead to reduced transmission by earlier initiation of anti-TB therapy. STUDY AIM: The PROVE-IT (Policy Relevant Outcomes from Validating Evidence on Impact) Russia study aimed to assess the impact of the implementation of line probe assay (LPA) as part of an LPA-based diagnostic algorithm for patients with presumptive MDR-TB focusing on time to treatment initiation with time from first-care seeking visit to the initiation of MDR-TB treatment rather than diagnostic accuracy as the primary outcome, and to assess treatment outcomes. We hypothesized that the implementation of LPA would result in faster time to treatment initiation and better treatment outcomes.

METHODS: A culture-based diagnostic algorithm used prior to LPA implementation was compared to an LPA-based algorithm that replaced BacTAlert and Löwenstein Jensen (LJ) for drug sensitivity testing. A total of 295 MDR-TB patients were included in the study, 163 diagnosed with the culture-based algorithm, 132 with the LPA-based algorithm.

RESULTS: Among smear positive patients, the implementation of the LPA-based algorithm was associated with a median decrease in time to MDR-TB treatment initiation of 50 and 66 days compared to the culture-based algorithm (BacTAlert and LJ respectively, p<0.001). In smear negative patients, the LPA-based algorithm was associated with a median decrease in time to MDR-TB treatment initiation of 78 days when compared to the culture-based algorithm (LJ, p<0.001). However, several weeks were still needed for treatment initiation in LPA-based algorithm, 24 days in smear positive, and 62 days in smear negative patients. Overall treatment outcomes were better in LPA-based algorithm compared to culture-based algorithm (p = 0.003). Treatment success rates at 20 months of treatment were higher in patients diagnosed with the LPA-based algorithm (65.2%) as compared to those diagnosed with the culture-based algorithm (44.8%). Mortality was also lower in the LPA-based algorithm group (7.6%) compared to the culture-based algorithm group (15.9%). There was no statistically significant difference in smear and culture conversion rates between the two algorithms.

CONCLUSION: The results of the study suggest that the introduction of LPA leads to faster time to MDR diagnosis and earlier treatment initiation as well as better treatment outcomes for patients with MDR-TB. These findings also highlight the need for further improvements within the health system to reduce both patient and diagnostic delays to truly optimize the impact of new, rapid diagnostics.

Gender differences in presentation, coronary intervention, and outcomes of 28,985 acute coronary syndrome patients in Victoria, Australia

BACKGROUND: Differences in demographics, presenting characteristics, and treatment of heart disease in women may contribute to adverse outcomes. The purpose of this paper was to describe gender differences in the epidemiology, treatment, and outcomes of all admissions for acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in Victoria that occurred between June 2007 and July 2009. METHODS: We undertook a retrospective cohort study of all patients admitted to Victorian hospitals with a first time diagnosis of ACS. Use of angiograms, percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), coronary artery bypass graft (CABG), and adverse outcomes (death and/or unplanned readmission) were compared by gender and hierarchical logistic regression models were used to account for confounding variables. RESULTS: Of a total of 28,985 ACS patients, 10,455 (36%) were women. Compared with men, women were older (aged ≥75 years: 54% vs 31%; p < .001), more likely to present with multiple comorbidities (>1 comorbidity: 53% vs 46%; p < .001), and more likely to be diagnosed with non-ST-segment elevation ACS (86% vs 80%; p < .001). Women were less likely to receive coronary interventions (angiogram: adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.71; 95% CI, 0.66-0.75; PCI: aOR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.66-0.80; CABG: aOR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.53-0.64). Adverse outcomes were similar in women and men after accounting for confounding variables. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that women in Victoria were less likely to receive coronary interventions after an admission for ACS. Clinicians should be wary of inherent gender bias in decisions to refer patients for angiography.