Recent patterns of change in vegetation structure and tree composition of British broadleaved woodland: evidence from large-scale surveys

Evidence is presented of widespread changes in structure and species composition between the 1980s and 2003–2004 from surveys of 249 British broadleaved woodlands. Structural components examined include canopy cover, vertical vegetation profiles, field-layer cover and deadwood abundance. Woods were located in 13 geographical localities and the patterns of change were examined for each locality as well as across all woods. Changes were not uniform throughout the localities; overall, there were significant decreases in canopy cover and increases in sub-canopy (2–10 m) cover. Changes in 0.5–2 m vegetation cover showed strong geographic patterns, increasing in western localities, but declining or showing no change in eastern localities. There were significant increases in canopy ash Fraxinus excelsior and decreases in oak Quercus robur/petraea. Shrub layer ash and honeysuckle Lonicera periclymenum increased while birch Betula spp. hawthorn Crataegus monogyna and hazel Corylus avellana declined. Within the field layer, both bracken Pteridium aquilinum and herbs increased. Overall, deadwood generally increased. Changes were consistent with reductions in active woodland management and changes in grazing and browsing pressure. These findings have important implications for sustainable active management of British broadleaved woodlands to meet silvicultural and biodiversity objectives.

MARCKS functions as a novel growth/tumour suppressor in cells of melanocyte origin

Protein kinase C (PKC) plays a pivotal role in modulating the growth of melanocytic cells in culture. We have shown previously that a major physiological substrate of PKC, the 80 kDa myristoylated alanine-rich C-kinase substrate (MARCKS), can be phosphorylated in quiescent, non-tumorigenic melanocytes exposed transiently to a biologically active phorbol ester, but cannot be phosphorylated in phorbol ester-treated, syngeneic malignant melanoma cells. Despite its ubiquitous distribution, the function of MARCKS in cell growth and transformation remains to be demonstrated clearly. We report here that MARCKS mRNA and protein levels are down-regulated significantly in the spontaneously derived murine B16 melanoma cell line compared with syngeneic normal Mel-ab melanocytes. In contrast, the tumourigenic v-Ha-ras-transfonned melan-ocytic line, LTR Ras 2, showed a high basal level of MARCKS phosphorylation which was not enhanced by treatment of cells with phorbol ester. Furthermore, protein levels of MARCKS in LTR Ras 2 cells were similar to those expressed in Mel-ab melanocytes. However, in four out of six murine tumour cell lines investigated, levels of MARCKS protein were barely detectable. Transfection of B16 cells with a plasmid containing the MARCKS cDNA in the sense orientation produced two neomycin-resistant clones displaying reduced proliferative capacity and decreased anchorage-independent growth compared with control cells. In contrast, transfection with the antisense MARCKS construct produced many colonies which displayed enhanced growth and transforming potential compared with control cells. Thus, MARCKS appears to act as a novel growth suppressor in the spontaneous transformation of cells of melanocyte origin and may play a more general role in the tumour progression of other carcinomas.

Estimating relationships between air mass origin and chemical composition

Observations of a chemical at a point in the atmosphere typically show sudden transitions between episodes of high and low concentration. Often these are associated with a rapid change in the origin of air arriving at the site. Lagrangian chemical models riding along trajectories can reproduce such transitions, but small timing errors from trajectory phase errors dramatically reduce the correlation between modeled concentrations and observations. Here the origin averaging technique is introduced to obtain maps of average concentration as a function of air mass origin for the East Atlantic Summer Experiment 1996 (EASE96, a ground-based chemistry campaign). These maps are used to construct origin averaged time series which enable comparison between a chemistry model and observations with phase errors factored out. The amount of the observed signal explained by trajectory changes can be quantified, as can the systematic model errors as a function of air mass origin. The Cambridge Tropospheric Trajectory model of Chemistry and Transport (CiTTyCAT) can account for over 70% of the observed ozone signal variance during EASE96 when phase errors are side-stepped by origin averaging. The dramatic increase in correlation (from 23% without averaging) cannot be achieved by time averaging. The success of the model is attributed to the strong relationship between changes in ozone along trajectories and their origin and its ability to simulate those changes. The model performs less well for longer-lived chemical constituents because the initial conditions 5 days before arrival are insufficiently well known.

Origin of the Parry arc

Laboratory experiments to determine the preferred orientation of free-falling hexagonal prisms were performed at Reynolds numbers appropriate to falling ice crystals in the atmosphere. Hexagonal plates orient with their c axis vertical for aspect ratios < 0.9, whilst hexagonal columns fall with their c axis horizontal. A secondary alignment is also observed: regular hexagonal columns fall preferentially with two prism facets aligned vertically and not horizontally – the latter scenario was previously assumed to be responsible for the rare Parry arc. However, if the column is made scalene in its cross-section, it can orient such that a pair of prism facets is horizontal. This finding indicates that the development of scalene crystals may be key to the production of certain ice-crystal optical phenomena

Origin of electronic absorption spectra of MLCT-excited and one-electron reduced 2,2′-bipyridine and 1,10-phenanthroline complexes

UV–Vis absorption spectra of one-electron reduction products and 3MLCT excited states of [ReICl(CO)3- (N,N)] (N,N = 2,20-bipyridine, bpy; 1,10-phenanthroline, phen) have been measured by low-temperature spectroelectrochemistry and UV–Vis transient absorption spectroscopy, respectively, and assigned by open-shell TD-DFT calculations. The characters of the electronic transitions are visualized and analyzed using electron density redistribution maps. It follows that reduced and excited states can be approximately formulated as [ReICl(CO)3(N,Nÿ)]ÿ and ⁄[ReIICl(CO)3(N,Nÿ)], respectively. UV–Vis spectra of the reduced complexes are dominated by IL transitions, plus weaker MLCT contributions. Excited-state spectra show an intense band in the UV region of 50% IL origin mixed with LMCT (bpy, 373 nm) or MLCT (phen, 307 nm) excitations. Because of the significant IL contribution, this spectral feature is akin to the principal IL band of the anions. In contrast, the excited-state visible spectral pattern arises from predominantly LMCT transitions, any resemblance with the reduced-state visible spectra being coincidental. The Re complexes studied herein are representatives of a broad class of metal a-diimines, for which similar spectroscopic behavior can be expected.

Evidence for the chaotic origin of Northern Annular Mode variability

Exponential spectra are found to characterize variability of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) for periods less than 36 days. This corresponds to the observed rounding of the autocorrelation function at lags of a few days. The characteristic persistence timescales during winter and summer is found to be ∼5 days for these high frequencies. Beyond periods of 36 days the characteristic decorrelation timescale is ∼20 days during winter and ∼6 days in summer. We conclude that the NAM cannot be described by autoregressive models for high frequencies; the spectra are more consistent with low-order chaos. We also propose that the NAM exhibits regime behaviour, however the nature of this has yet to be identified.

Evolutionary genomics of the Fox genes: origin of gene families and the ancestry of gene clusters

Over the past decade genomic approaches have begun to revolutionise the study of animal diversity. In particular, genome sequencing programmes have spread beyond the traditional model species to encompass an increasing diversity of animals from many different phyla, as well as unicellular eukaryotes that are closely related to the animals. Whole genome sequences allow researchers to establish, with reasonable confidence, the full complement of any particular family of genes in a genome. Comparison of gene complements from appropriate genomes can reveal the evolutionary history of gene families, indicating when both gene diversification and gene loss have occurred. More than that, however, assembled genomes allow the genomic environment in which individual genes are found to be analysed and compared between species. This can reveal how gene diversification occurred. Here, we focus on the Fox genes, drawing from multiple animal genomes to develop an evolutionary framework explaining the timing and mechanism of origin of the diversity of animal Fox genes. Ancient linkages between genes are a prominent feature of the Fox genes, depicting a history of gene clusters, some of which may be relevant to understanding Fox gene function.

Can sentiment surveys pre-empt real estate market activities?

We evaluate a number of real estate sentiment indices to ascertain current and forward-looking information content that may be useful for forecasting the demand and supply activities. Our focus lies on sector-specific surveys targeting the players from the supply-side of both residential and non-residential real estate markets. Analyzing the dynamic relationships within a Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) framework, we test the efficacy of these indices by comparing them with other coincident indicators in predicting real estate returns. Overall, our analysis suggests that sentiment indicators convey important information which should be embedded in the modeling exercise to predict real estate market returns. Generally, sentiment indices show better information content than broad economic indicators. The goodness of fit of our models is higher for the residential market than for the non-residential real estate sector. The impulse responses, in general, conform to our theoretical expectations. Variance decompositions and out-of-sample predictions generally show desired contribution and reasonable improvement respectively, thus upholding our hypothesis. Quite remarkably, consistent with the theory, the predictability swings when we look through different phases of the cycle. This perhaps suggests that, e.g. during recessions, market players’ expectations may be more accurate predictor of the future performances, conceivably indicating a ‘negative’ information processing bias and thus conforming to the precautionary motive of consumer behaviour.

Using seasonal hindcasts to understand the origin of the equatorial cold tongue bias in CGCMs and its impact on ENSO

The cold equatorial SST bias in the tropical Pacific that is persistent in many coupled OAGCMs severely impacts the fidelity of the simulated climate and variability in this key region, such as the ENSO phenomenon. The classical bias analysis in these models usually concentrates on multi-decadal to centennial time series needed to obtain statistically robust features. Yet, this strategy cannot fully explain how the models errors were generated in the first place. Here, we use seasonal re-forecasts (hindcasts) to track back the origin of this cold bias. As such hindcasts are initialized close to observations, the transient drift leading to the cold bias can be analyzed to distinguish pre-existing errors from errors responding to initial ones. A time sequence of processes involved in the advent of the final mean state errors can then be proposed. We apply this strategy to the ENSEMBLES-FP6 project multi-model hindcasts of the last decades. Four of the five AOGCMs develop a persistent equatorial cold tongue bias within a few months. The associated systematic errors are first assessed separately for the warm and cold ENSO phases. We find that the models are able to reproduce either El Niño or La Niña close to observations, but not both. ENSO composites then show that the spurious equatorial cooling is maximum for El Niño years for the February and August start dates. For these events and at this time of the year, zonal wind errors in the equatorial Pacific are present from the beginning of the simulation and are hypothesized to be at the origin of the equatorial cold bias, generating too strong upwelling conditions. The systematic underestimation of the mixed layer depth in several models can also amplify the growth of the SST bias. The seminal role of these zonal wind errors is further demonstrated by carrying out ocean-only experiments forced by the AOCGCMs daily 10-meter wind. In a case study, we show that for several models, this forcing is sufficient to reproduce the main SST error patterns seen after 1 month in the AOCGCM hindcasts.

Influence of geographical origin, host animal and stx gene on the virulence characteristics of Escherichia coli O26 strains

The influence of geographical origin, host animal and presence of the stx gene on the virulence of Escherichia coli O26 strains from ruminants was determined in this study. A clear association was found between the virulence profile and geographical origin of Shiga-toxigenic E. coli (STEC) O26 strains, with UK STEC O26 strains harbouring virtually identical profiles, whilst central European strains showed considerable heterogeneity in plasmid-encoded genes. The former group were also more likely to be non-motile and katP gene positive. Comparison of UK STEC and atypical enteropathogenic E. coli (aEPEC O26 strains showed that the presence of the stx1 gene was positively correlated with the presence of espP and katP genes and negatively associated with the presence of the yagP-yagT region and with rhamnose fermentation. In contrast to the uniform profiles of STEC O26 strains from ruminants in the UK, aEPEC O26 strains of bovine and ovine origin showed diverse profiles both within and between groups, and could not be separated into discrete groups. These results indicate that the characteristics of UK O26 strains from ruminants are distinct from those of O26 strains from ruminants and humans in other regions in central Europe. Such differences are expected to influence the zoonotic potential of this pathogen and the subsequent incidence of O26-associated human disease.