Modelos agrometeorológicos estatísticos de previsão de produtividade e qualidade para cana-de-açúcar

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Produção Vegetal) - FCAV

Procura espontânea de atendimento por idosos da Estratégia Saúde da Família: análise não linear do comportamento temporal das morbidades

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Previsão de demanda para peças de reposição de alto giro: aplicação de método descritivo simples comparado com o modelo suavização exponencial

O estudo de métodos de previsão de demandas é um conceito bastante popular, mas nem sempre seus resultados são facilmente aplicáveis nas organizações por várias limitações. O propósito deste artigo é apresentar um método simples e descritivo para a previsão de demanda para peças de reposição de alto giro e comparar os resultados com o modelo de suavização exponencial. Foi utilizado para isto, dados reais de consumo de uma empresa de geração de energia em dois anos com a mesma condição de contorno, e estabeleceu-se o ano de 2012 com a série de aplicação dos métodos e a série de 2013 com a série de validação dos resultados e em todas as amostras tomadas observou-se um menor erro quadrático RMSE, a favor do método descritivo simplificado. Todas as quatro séries analisadas se caracterizam pela alta dispersão dos dados, e não possuem tendências e sazonalidades.

A influência da mídia na procura por exercícios físicos e suas possíveis consequências psicológicas

Modern society is characterized by the advance of technologies, the emergence and constant development of the technological field is responsible for a series of population adjustments, that being practically molded and daily transformed by media, which usually has the power of manipulating opinions and public approaches in every capacity and extensions of our lives, being a significantly and important tool, which most part of individuals in contemporary society can't work and live without, therefore most part of individuals depend on the use of many technological means, including social means, which have great relationship with the development and emergence of many psychological problems that completely impact on the social life of affected individuals, thus Physical Education is an area with the goal of verifying the level of influence that media reflects on the lifestyle choice to be followed and the relation of this influence with the presence and development of a series of psychological disorders that affect directly the health of those individuals. It has been gathered data about the subject according to scientific basis, more specifically, on Academic Google, Scielo and Pubmed, where it has been researched scientific articles that could contribute with the data and information to complete the text. The psychology of sports is an area of studies and knowledge that investigates and develops insight about these questions, making available scientifically tested and proven materials that supports the P.E. professional, that is connected in the practical field to visualize possible chained symptoms of these psychopathologies according to the development of these psychic disorders, that are usually common in current days, more precisely, disorders such as Anorexia, Vigorexia, self-dependence to physical exercise and selfcorporal dissapproval. It's vital to have total attention with the possibility of evolution of this psychopatology...

Modelos agrometeorológicos para previsão da produtividade e qualidade de bebida natural do cafeeiro

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Modelos de previsão de ocorrência de adultos de diatraea saccharalis (Fabricius, 1794) (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) em cana-de-açúcar (Saccharum spp.)

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Desenvolvimento de modelo auto-regressivo para previsão em pronto-atendimento

The 1988 constitution makes an life is a supreme good when increased health as the fundamental condition requiring that all ill patient has the right to be treated in a public hospital (CF, art. 196). In this sense, the goal of this work is to generate a weekly forecast of hospital care by means of an advanced prediction model. It is expected that the model of self-regressivas seasonal moving averages SARIMA generate reliable and adherent to issue forecasts analyzed, thus enabling better resource allocation and more efficient hospital management

Métodos de previsão auto-regressivo aplicado a uma série de volume de produção de caminhões

The national truck fleet has expanded strongly in recent decades. However, due to fluctuations in the demand that the market is exposed, it needed up making more effective strategic decisions of automakers. These decisions are made after an evaluation of guaranteed sales forecasts. This work aims to generate an annual forecast of truck production by Box and Jenkins methodology. They used annual data for referring forecast modeling from the year 1957 to 2014, which were obtained by the National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea). The model used was Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and can choose the best model for the series under study, and the ARIMA (2,1,3) as representative for conducting truck production forecast

Modelagem auto-regressiva na previsão de demanda dos produtos de uma empresa do setor químico

Considering the high competitiveness in the industrial chemical sector, demand forecast is a relevant factor for decision-making. There is a need for tools capable of assisting in the analysis and definition of the forecast. In that sense, the objective is to generate the chemical industry forecast using an advanced forecasting model and thus verify the accuracy of the method. Because it is time series with seasonality, the model of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average - SARIMA generated reliable forecasts and acceding to the problem analyzed, thus enabling, through validation with real data improvements in the management and decision making of supply chain

Estimativa do potencial de acréscimo da oferta de energia no setor sucroalcooleiro paulista a partir de cogeração e gaseificação do bagaço de cana-de-açúcar com utilização de ciclo combinado

This work evaluates the existing potential in the state of Sao Paulo for the generation of electrical energy using the sugar cane bagasse as fuel. As the bagasse is a by-product of the sugarcane and alcohol industry and it is produced in large scale in the country, mainly in the state of Sao Paulo, it is important to develop researches that aim the best utilization of this input. In order to determine its potential, at first, a study was conducted considering the utilization of the cogeneration, which is a common practice in the plants of the sector. However, it was concluded that the cogeneration could provide a higher quantity of energy if more modern technologies and more efficient processes were used. Another study to estimate the potential considered a system of gasification of the sugar cane bagasse integrated with the combined cycle (BIG/GTCC). It was concluded that this technology can provide a considerable increase in the electrical supply. In this work it was also developed an energetic study based on real data from a plant located in the state of Sao Paulo. A thermodynamic analysis was done in the existing equipment of the cogeneration section of the plant. And another analysis was done considering the implementation of the BIG/GTCC technology to the cogeneration system. Comparing the results of both settings, it was concluded that the utilization of the sugar cane bagasse integrated to a combined cycle increased considerably the efficiency in the generation of electricity of the plant, increasing more than six times its production capacity of electrical energy

Previsão da capacidade de carga de estacas escavadas em solo arenoso da região de Araquari-SC

In Geotechnical engineering the foundation projects depend on the bearing capacity and the acceptable displacements. One of the possible ways to predict the bearing capacity of foundations is through semi-empirical statistical methods which correlate in-situ tests (SPT and CPT). The piles breaking loads are defined by the interpretation of the load x head displacement curve and the experimental data acquired through the load test. In this work it is studied the behavior of bored piles executed in the Araquari/SC region, comparing the bearing capacity values predicted by the methods DECOURT & QUARESMA MODIFICADO (1996), AOKI & VELLOSO MODIFICADO MONTEIRO (2000), MILITITISKY E ALVES (1985), DECOURT & QUARESMA (1978), MÉTODO DE AOKI & VELLOSO (1975) e PHILOPANNAT (1986), with the results of the load test, evaluating their differences and discussing parameters that have direct effects on the prediction

Desenvolvimento de modelo auto-regressivo para previsão em pronto-atendimento

The 1988 constitution makes an life is a supreme good when increased health as the fundamental condition requiring that all ill patient has the right to be treated in a public hospital (CF, art. 196). In this sense, the goal of this work is to generate a weekly forecast of hospital care by means of an advanced prediction model. It is expected that the model of self-regressivas seasonal moving averages SARIMA generate reliable and adherent to issue forecasts analyzed, thus enabling better resource allocation and more efficient hospital management

Métodos de previsão auto-regressivo aplicado a uma série de volume de produção de caminhões

The national truck fleet has expanded strongly in recent decades. However, due to fluctuations in the demand that the market is exposed, it needed up making more effective strategic decisions of automakers. These decisions are made after an evaluation of guaranteed sales forecasts. This work aims to generate an annual forecast of truck production by Box and Jenkins methodology. They used annual data for referring forecast modeling from the year 1957 to 2014, which were obtained by the National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea). The model used was Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and can choose the best model for the series under study, and the ARIMA (2,1,3) as representative for conducting truck production forecast