Stability boundary characterization of nonlinear autonomous dynamical systems in the presence of saddle-node equilibrium points

A dynamical characterization of the stability boundary for a fairly large class of nonlinear autonomous dynamical systems is developed in this paper. This characterization generalizes the existing results by allowing the existence of saddle-node equilibrium points on the stability boundary. The stability boundary of an asymptotically stable equilibrium point is shown to consist of the stable manifolds of the hyperbolic equilibrium points on the stability boundary and the stable, stable center and center manifolds of the saddle-node equilibrium points on the stability boundary.

Stacking of discontinuous regional palaeoclimate records: Chironomid-based summer temperatures from the Alpine region

Since multi-site reconstructions are less affected by site-specific climatic effects and artefacts, regional palaeotemperature reconstructions based on a number of sites can provide more robust estimates of centennial- to millennial-scale temperature trends than individual, site-specific records. Furthermore, reconstructions based on multiple records are necessary for developing continuous climate records over time scales longer than covered by individual sequences. Here, we present a procedure for developing such reconstructions based on relatively short (centuries to millennia), discontinuously sampled records as are typically developed when using biotic proxies in lake sediments for temperature reconstruction. The approach includes an altitudinal correction of temperatures, an interpolation of individual records to equal time intervals, a stacking procedure for sections of the interval of interest that have the same records available, as well as a splicing procedure to link the individual stacked records into a continuous reconstruction. Variations in the final, stacked and spliced reconstruction are driven by variations in the individual records, whereas the absolute temperature values are determined by the stacked segment based on the largest number of records. With numerical simulations based on the NGRIP δ18O record, we demonstrate that the interpolation and stacking procedure provides an approximation of a smoothed palaeoclimate record if based on a sufficient number of discontinuously sampled records. Finally, we provide an example of a stacked and spliced palaeotemperature reconstruction 15000–90 calibrated 14C yr BP based on six chironomid records from the northern and central Swiss Alps and eastern France to discuss the potential and limitations of this approach.

Preliminary results and documentation of sediment cores CRP2 and CRP-2A from the Ross Sea off Cape Roberts, Antarctica

The site for CRP-2, 14 km east of Cape Roberts (77.006°S; 163.719°E), was selected to overlap the early Miocene strata cored in nearby CRP-1, and to sample deeper into the east-dipping strata near the western margin ofe he Victoria Land Basin to investigate Palaeogene climatic and tectonic history. CRP-2 was cored from 5 to 57 mbsf (metres below the sea floor) (core recovery 91 %), with a deviation resulting in CRP-2A being cored at the same site. CRP-2A reached down to 624mbsf (recovery 95%), and to strata with an age of c. 33-35 Ma. Drilling took place from 16 October to 25 November 1998, on 2.0-2.2 m of sea ice and through 178 m of water. Core fractures and other physical properties, such as sonic velocity, density and magnetic susceptibility, were measured throughout the core. Down-hole logs for these and other properties were run from 63 to 167 mbsf and subsequently from 200 to 623 mbsf, although density and velocity data could be obtained only to 440 mbsf because of hole collapse. Sonic velocity averages c. 2.0 km S-1 for the upper part of the hole, but there is an sharp increase to c. 3.0 km s-1 and also a slight angular unconformity, at 306 mbsf, corresponding most likely to the early/late Oligocene boundary (c. 28-30 Ma). Velocity then increases irregularly to around 3.6 km s-1 at the bottom of the hole, which is estimated to lie 120 m above the V4/V5 boundary. The higher velocities below 306 mbsf probably reflect more extensive carbonate and common pyrite cementation, in patches, nodules, bedding-parallel masses and as vein infills. Dip of the strata also increases down-hole from 3° in the upper 300 in to over 10° at the bottom. Temperature gradient is 21° k-1. Over 2 000 fractures were logged through the hole. Borehole televiewer imagery was obtained for the interval from 200 to 440 mbsf to orient the fractures for stress field analysis. Lithostratigraphical descriptions on a scale of 1:20 are presented for the full length of the core, along with core box images, as a 200 page supplement to this issue. The hole initially passed through a layer of muddy gravel to 5.5 mbsf (Lithological Sub-Unit or LSU 1.1), and then into a Quaternary diatom-bearing clast-rich diamicton to 21 mbsf (LSU 2. l), with an interval of alternating compact diamicton and loose sand, and containing a rich Pliocene foraminiferal fauna, to 27 mbsf (LSU 2.2). The unit beneath this (LSU 3.1) has similar physical properties (sonic velocity, porosity, magnetic susceptibility) and includes diamictites of similar character to those of LSU 2.1 and 2.2, but an early Miocene (c. 19 Ma) diatom assemblage at 28 mbsf (top of LSU 3.1) shows that this sub-unit is part of the older section. The strata beneath 27 mbsf, primary target for the project, extend from early Miocene to perhaps latest Eocene age, and are largely cyclic glacimarine nearshore to offshore sediments. They are described as 41 lithological sub-units and interpreted in terms of 12 recurrent lithofacies. These are 1) mudstone, 2) inter-stratified mudstone and sandstone, 3) muddy very fine to coarse sandstone, 4) well-sorted stratified fine sandstone, 5) moderately to well-sorted, medium-grained sandstone, 6) stratified diamictite, 7) massive diamictite, 8) rhythmically inter-stratified sandstone and mudstone, 9) clast-supported conglomerate, 10) matrix-supported conglomerate, 11) mudstone breccia and 12) volcaniclastic sediment. Sequence stratigraphical analysis has identified 22 unconformity-bounded depositional sequences in pre- Pliocene strata. They typically comprise a four-part architecture involving, in ascending order, 1) a sharp-based coarse-grained unit (Facies 6,7,9 or 10), 2) a fining-upward succession of sandstones (Facies 3 and 4), 3) a mudstone interval (Facies l), in some cases coarsening upward to muddy sandstones (Facies 3), and 4) a sharp-based sandstone dominated succession (mainly Facies 4). The cyclicity recorded by the strata is interpreted in terms of a glacier ice margin retreating and advancing from land to the west, and of rises and falls in sea level. Analysis of sequence periodicity awaits afirmer chronology. However, apreliminary spectral analysis of magnetic susceptibility for a deepwater mudstone within one of the sequences (from 339 to 347 mbsf) reveals ratios between hierarchical levels that are similar to those of the three Milankovitch orbital forcing periodicities. The strata contain a wide range of fossils, the most abundant being marine diatoms. These commonly form up to 5% of the sediment, though in places the core is barren (notably between 300 and 412 mbsf). Fifty samples out of 250 reviewed were studied in detail. The assemblages define ten biostratigraphical zones, some of them based on local or as yet undescribed forms. The assemblages are neritic, and largely planktonic, suggesting that the sea floor was mostly below the photic zone throughout deposition of the corcd sequence. Calcareous nannofossils, representing incursions of ocean surface waters, are much less common (72 out of 183 samples examined) and restricted to mudstone intervals a few tens of metres thick, but are important for dating. Foraminifera are also sparse (73 out of 135 samples) and represented only by calcareous benthic species. Changing assemblages indicate a shift from inshore environments in the early Oligocenc to outer shelf in the late Oligocenc, returning to inshore in the early Miocene. Marine palynomorplis yielded large numbers of well-preserved forms from most of the 116 samples examined. The new in situ assemblagc found last year in CRP-1 is extended down into the late Oligocene and a further new assemblage is found in the early Oligoccnc. Many taxa are new, and cannot us yet contribute to an improved understanding of chronology or ecology. Marine invertebrate macrofossils, mostly molluscs and serpulid tubes, are scattered throughout the core. Preservation is good in mudstones but poor in other lithologies. Climate on land is reflected in the content of terrestrial palynomorphs, which are extremely scarce down to c. 300 mbsf. Some forms are reworked, and others represent a low growing sparse tundra with at least one species of Nothofagus. Beneath this level, a significantly greater diversity and abundance suggests a milder climate and a low diversity woody vegetation in the early Oligocene, but still far short of the richness found in known Eocene strata of the region. Sedimentary facies in the oldest strata also suggest a milder climate in the oldest strata cored, with indications of substantial glacial melt-water discharges, but are typical of a coldcr climate in late Oligocene and early Miocene times. Clast analyses from diamictites reveal weak to random fabrics, suggesting either lack of ice-contact deposition or post-depositional modification, but periods when ice grounded at the drill site are inferred from thin zones of in-situ brecciated rock and soft-sediment folding. These are more common above c. 300 mbsf, perhaps reflecting more extensive glacial advances during deposition of those strata. Erosion of the adjacent Transantarctic Mountains through Jurassic basalt and dolerite-intruded Beacon strata into basement rocks beneath is recorded by petrographical studies of clast and sand grain assemblages. Core below 310 mbsf contains a dominance of fine-grained Jurassic dolerite and basalt fragments along with Beacon-derived coal debris and rounded quartz grains, whereas the strata above this level have a much higher proportion of basement derived granitoids, implying that the large areas of the adjacent mountains had been eroded to basement by the end of the early Oligocene. There is little indication of rift-related volcanism below 310 mbsf. Above this, however, basaltic and trachytic tephras are common, especially from 280 to 200 mbsf, from 150 to 46 mbsf, and in Pliocene LSU 2.2 from 21 to 27 mbsf. The largest volcanic eruptions generated layers of coarse (up to 1 cm) trachytic pumice lapilli between 97 and 114 mbsf. The thickest of these (1.2 m at 112 mbsf) may have produced an eruptive column extending tens of km into the stratosphere. A source within a few tens of km of the drill site is considered most likely. Present age estimates for the pre-Pliocene sequence are based mainly on biostratigraphy (using mainly marine diatoms and to a lesser extent calcareous nannofossils), with the age of the tephra from 112 to 114 mbsf (21.44k0.05 Ma from 84 crystals by Ar-Ar) as a key reference point. Although there are varied and well-preserved microfossil assemblages through most of the sequence (notably of diatoms and marine palynomorphs), they comprise largely taxa either known only locally or as yet undescribed. In addition, sequence stratigraphical analysis and features in the core itself indicate numerous disconformities. The present estimate from diatom assemblages is that the interval from 27 to 130 mbsf is early Miocene in age (c. 19 to 23.5 Ma), consistent with the Ar-Ar age from 112 to 114 mbsf. Diatom assemblages also indicate that the late Oligocene epoch extends from c. 130 to 307 mbsf, which is supported by late Oligocene nannofossils from 130 to 185 mbsf. Strata from 307 to 412 mbsf have no age-diagnostic assemblages, but below this early Oligocene diatoms and nannofossils have been recovered. A nannoflora at the bottom of the hole is consistent with an earliest Oligocene or latest Eocene age. Magnetostratigraphical studies based on about 1000 samples, 700 of which have so far undergone demagnetisation treatment, have provided a polarity stratigraphy of 12 pre-Pliocene magnetozones. Samples above 270 mbsf are of consistently high quality. Below this, magnetic behaviour is more variable. A preliminary age-depth plot using the Magnetic Polarity Time Scale (MPTS) and constrained by biostratigraphical data suggests that episodes of relatively rapid sedimentation took place at CRP-2 during Oligocene times (c. 100 m/My), but that more than half of the record was lost in a few major and many minor disconformities. Age estimates from Sr isotopes in shell debris and further tephra dating are expected to lead to a better comparison with the MPTS. CRP-2/2A has recorded a history of subsidence of the Victoria Land Basin margin that is similar to that found in CIROS-170 km to the south, reflecting stability in both basin and the adjacent mountains in late Cenozoic times, but with slow net accumulation in the middle Cenozoic. The climatic indicators from both drill holes show a similar correspondence, indicating polar conditions for the Quaternary but with sub-polar conditions in the early Miocene-late Oligocene and indications of warmer conditions still in the early Oligocene. Correlation between the CRP-2A core and seismic records shows that seismic units V3 and V4, both widespread in the Victoria Land Basin, represent a period of fluctuating ice margins and glacimarine sedimentation. The next drill hole, CRP-3, is expected to core deep into V5 and extend this record of climate and tectonics still further back in time.

Tab.1: Tabulation of pinguin population within the Antarctic Peninsula region

Six species of penguins breed on the Antarctic continent, the Antarctic Peninsula, the South Shetland and South Orkney Islands. Their breeding populations within the Antarctic Peninsula, and the South Orkney and South Shetland Is., and estimates of global populations are given. Typical breeding seasons are also presented, but it must be noted that these will vary inter-annually and intra-annually under the influence of factors such as sea-ice extent and ENSO (interannual) and the location of each breeding colony (southerly localities will be later than northerly localities, as their breeding season is "compressed" within the shorter summer). Their foraging strategies (categorized as near-shore or offshore) and typical durations of foraging trips are also tabulated. As with breeding season events, foraging behaviour will vary intra-seasonally and inter-seasonally (in terms of dive duration, dive depth, foraging location, etc). The distribution of known penguin breeding colonies is circum-continental, with Emperor and Adelie penguins predominant on approximately 75 % of the coast, with two major concentrations in the Ross Sea and in Prydz Bay. The third concentration is in the Antarctic Peninsula region, where some of the largest penguin colonies are present. All six species breed within the area (predominantly Chinstrap Penguins), and the Peninsula region has a greater diversity than the remainder ofthe Antarctic with respect to penguins. The distribution at sea of nonbreeding penguins is less cIear. Non-breeding individuals of all six species move throughout the Southern Ocean, and in many cases, to areas well north of the winter pack-ice zone. However, it is not possible to estimate densities of penguins at sea as there are no estimates of non-breeding penguin populations the extent of their travels.

Vegetation, soil and site characteristics of samples taken along the Yamal Transet in 2007-2008

The overarching goal of the Yamal portion of the Greening of the Arctic project is to examine how the terrain and anthropogenic factors of reindeer herding and resource development combined with the climate variations on the Yamal Peninsula affect the spatial and temporal patterns of vegetation change and how these changes are in turn affecting traditional herding of the indigenous people of the region. The purpose of the expeditions was to collect groundobservations in support of remote sensing studies at four locations along a transect that traverses all the major bioclimate subzones of the Yamal Peninsula. This data report is a summary of information collected during the 2007 and 2008 expeditions. It includes all the information from the 2008 data report (Walker et al. 2008) plus new information collected at Kharasavey in Aug 2008. The locations included in this report are Nadym (northern taiga subzone), Laborovaya (southern tundra = subzone E of the Circumpolar Arctic Vegetation Map (CAVM), Vaskiny Dachi (southern typical tundra = subzone D), and Kharasavey (northern typical tundra = subzone C). Another expedition is planned for summer 2009 to the northernmost site at Belyy Ostrov (Arctic tundra = subzone B). Data are reported from 10 study sites - 2 at Nadym, 2 at Laborovaya, and 3 at Vaskiny Dachi and 3 at Kharasavey. The sites are representative of the zonal soils and vegetation, but also include variation related to substrate (clayey vs. sandy soils). Most of the information was collected along 5 transects at each sample site, 5 permanent vegetation study plots, and 1-2 soil pits at each site. The expedition also established soil and permafrost monitoring sites at each location. This data report includes: (1) background for the project, (2) general descriptions and photographs of each locality and sample site, (3) maps of the sites, study plots, and transects at each location, (4) summary of sampling methods used, (5) tabular summaries of the vegetation data (species lists, estimates of cover abundance for each species within vegetation plots, measured percent ground cover of species along transects, site factors for each study plot), (6) summaries of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and leaf area index (LAI) along each transect, (7) soil descriptions and photos of the soil pits at each study site, (8) summaries of thaw measurements along each transect, and (9) contact information for each of the participants. One of the primary objectives was to provide the Russian partners with full documentation of the methods so that Russian observers in future years could repeat the observations independently.

Background heat flow values in the region of the Sea of Okhotsk

Particular features of tectonic structure and anomalous distribution of geothermal, geomagnetic, and gravity fields in the region of the Sea of Okhotsk are considered. On the basis of heat flow data, ages of large-scale structures in the Sea of Okhotsk are estimated at 65 Ma for the Central Okhotsk Rise and 36 Ma for the South Okhotsk Basin. Age of the South Okhotsk Basin is confirmed by data on kinematics and corresponds to 50 km thickness of the lithosphere. This is in accordance with thickness value obtained by magnetotelluric soundings. Comparative analysis of model geothermal background and measured heat flow values on the Akademii Nauk Rise is performed. Analysis points to abnormally high (~20%) measured heat flow agrees with high negative gradient of gravity anomalies. Estimates of deep heat flow and basement age of riftogenic basins in the Sea of Okhotsk were carried out in the following areas: Deryugin Basin (18 Ma, Early Miocene), TINRO Basin (12 Ma, Middle Miocene), and West Kamchatka Basin (23 Ma, Late Oligocene). Temperatures at boundaries of the main lithological complexes of the sedimentary cover are calculated and zones of oil and gas generation are defined. On the basis of geothermal, magnetic, structural, and other geological-geophysical data a kinematic model of the region of the Sea of Okhotsk for period of 36 Ma was calculated and constructed.

Evaluation and improvement of empirical models of global solar irradiation: Case study northern Spain

This paper presents a new methodology to build parametric models to estimate global solar irradiation adjusted to specific on-site characteristics based on the evaluation of variable im- portance. Thus, those variables higly correlated to solar irradiation on a site are implemented in the model and therefore, different models might be proposed under different climates. This methodology is applied in a study case in La Rioja region (northern Spain). A new model is proposed and evaluated on stability and accuracy against a review of twenty-two already exist- ing parametric models based on temperatures and rainfall in seventeen meteorological stations in La Rioja. The methodology of model evaluation is based on bootstrapping, which leads to achieve a high level of confidence in model calibration and validation from short time series (in this case five years, from 2007 to 2011). The model proposed improves the estimates of the other twenty-two models with average mean absolute error (MAE) of 2.195 MJ/m2 day and average confidence interval width (95% C.I., n=100) of 0.261 MJ/m2 day. 41.65% of the daily residuals in the case of SIAR and 20.12% in that of SOS Rioja fall within the uncertainty tolerance of the pyranometers of the two networks (10% and 5%, respectively). Relative differences between measured and estimated irradiation on an annual cumulative basis are below 4.82%. Thus, the proposed model might be useful to estimate annual sums of global solar irradiation, reaching insignificant differences between measurements from pyranometers.

An epidemiological needs assessment of carotid endarterectomy in an English health region. Is the need being met?

Objective: To compare the level of provision of carotid endarterectomy (an intervention of proved efficacy for prevention of stroke in patients with symptomatic high grade carotid artery stenosis) with estimates of need.

Pollution generation in the Carajas region of Brazil: An extended input -output approach

The economic development of any region involves some consequences to the environment. The choice of a socially optimal development plan must consider a measure of the strategy's environmental impact. This dissertation tackles this problem by examining environmental impacts of new production activities. The study uses the experience of the Carajás region in the north of Brazil. This region, which prior to the 1960's was an isolated outpost of the Amazon area, was integrated to the rest of the country with a non-sophisticated but strategic road system and eventually became the second largest iron ore mining area in the world. Finally, in the 1980's, the area was linked, by way of a railroad, to the nearest seaport along the Atlantic Ocean. The consequence of such changes was a burst of economic growth along the railroad Corridor and neighboring areas. In this work, a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) is used to construct a 2-region (Corridor and surrounding area), fixed price, Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model to examine the relationship between production and pollution by measuring the different pollution effects of alternative growth strategies. SAMs are a very useful tool to examine the environmental impacts of development by linking production activities to measurable indices of natural resource degradation. The simulation results suggest that the strategies leading to faster economic growth in the short run are also those that lead to faster rates of environmental degradation. The simulations also show that the strategies that leads to faster rates of short run growth do so at the price of a rate of environmental depletion that is unsustainable from a long run perspective. These results, therefore, support the concern expressed by environmental economists and policy makers regarding the possible trade-offs between economic growth and environmental preservation. This stresses the need for a careful analysis of the environmental impacts of alternative growth strategies. ^

Retrievals of a size parameter for phytoplankton and spectral light absorption by colored detrital matter from water-leaving radiances at SeaWiFS channels in a continental shelf region off Brazil

Many efforts are currently oriented toward extracting more information from ocean color than the chlorophyll a concentration. Among biological parameters potentially accessible from space, estimates of phytoplankton cell size and light absorption by colored detrital matter (CDM) would lead to an indirect assessment of major components of the organic carbon pool in the ocean, which would benefit oceanic carbon budget models. We present here 2 procedures to retrieve simultaneously from ocean color measurements in a limited number of bands, magnitudes, and spectral shapes for both light absorption by CDM and phytoplankton, along with a size parameter for phytoplankton. The performance of the 2 procedures was evaluated using different data sets that correspond to increasing uncertainties: ( 1) measured absorption coefficients of phytoplankton, particulate detritus, and colored dissolved organic matter ( CDOM) and measured chlorophyll a concentrations and ( 2) SeaWiFS upwelling radiance measurements and chlorophyll a concentrations estimated from global algorithms. In situ data were acquired during 3 cruises, differing by their relative proportions in CDM and phytoplankton, over a continental shelf off Brazil. No local information was introduced in either procedure, to make them more generally applicable. Over the study area, the absorption coefficient of CDM at 443 nm was retrieved from SeaWiFS radiances with a relative root mean square error (RMSE) of 33%, and phytoplankton light absorption coefficients in SeaWiFS bands ( from 412 to 510 nm) were retrieved with RMSEs between 28% and 33%. These results are comparable to or better than those obtained by 3 published models. In addition, a size parameter of phytoplankton and the spectral slope of CDM absorption were retrieved with RMSEs of 17% and 22%, respectively. If these methods are applied at a regional scale, the performances could be substantially improved by locally tuning some empirical relationships.

Efficacy of sweet solutions for analgesia in infants between 1 and 12 months of age: a systematic review

Objective To compare the efficacy of oral sweet solutions to water or no treatment in infants aged 1-12 months during immunisation. Methods Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) were retrieved through internet searches or manual searches of reference lists. Search terms included newborn, infant, pain, sucrose and alternative names for sweet solutions. Summary estimates with 95% CIs were calculated and included relative risk (RR), risk difference (RD) and number needed to treat to benefit (NNTB) for dichotomous outcomes, and weighted mean differences (WMD) for continuous outcomes. Where pooling of results was not possible, a narrative summary of study results is presented. Results Of the 695 studies identified, 14 RCTs with 1674 injections met the inclusion criteria. Sucrose or glucose, compared to water or no treatment decreased crying during or following immunisation in 13 of the 14 studies. Infants receiving 30% glucose (three trials, 243 infants) had a decreased RR in crying incidence following immunisation (typical RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.93; RD -0.17, 95% CI -0.29 to -0.05; NNTB 6, 95% CI 3 to 20). With sucrose or glucose, there was a 10% WMD reduction in proportion of crying time (95% CI - 18 to - 2) and a 12 s reduction in crying duration (95% CI - 23 to -0.7 s). An optimal dose of sucrose or glucose could not be ascertained due to the varied volumes and concentrations used. Conclusion Infants aged 1-12 months administered sucrose or glucose before immunisation had moderately reduced incidence and duration of crying. Healthcare professionals should consider using sucrose or glucose before and during immunisation.

AVERAGE CONTINUOUS CONTROL OF PIECEWISE DETERMINISTIC MARKOV PROCESSES

This paper deals with the long run average continuous control problem of piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) taking values in a general Borel space and with compact action space depending on the state variable. The control variable acts on the jump rate and transition measure of the PDMP, and the running and boundary costs are assumed to be positive but not necessarily bounded. Our first main result is to obtain an optimality equation for the long run average cost in terms of a discrete-time optimality equation related to the embedded Markov chain given by the postjump location of the PDMP. Our second main result guarantees the existence of a feedback measurable selector for the discrete-time optimality equation by establishing a connection between this equation and an integro-differential equation. Our final main result is to obtain some sufficient conditions for the existence of a solution for a discrete-time optimality inequality and an ordinary optimal feedback control for the long run average cost using the so-called vanishing discount approach. Two examples are presented illustrating the possible applications of the results developed in the paper.

Cross-national epidemiology of DSM-IV major depressive episode

Background: Major depression is one of the leading causes of disability worldwide, yet epidemiologic data are not available for many countries, particularly low- to middle-income countries. In this paper, we present data on the prevalence, impairment and demographic correlates of depression from 18 high and low-to middle-income countries in the World Mental Health Survey Initiative. Methods: Major depressive episodes (MDE) as defined by the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fourth edition (DMS-IV) were evaluated in face-to-face interviews using the World Health Organization Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). Data from 18 countries were analyzed in this report (n = 89,037). All countries surveyed representative, population-based samples of adults. Results: The average lifetime and 12-month prevalence estimates of DSM-IV MDE were 14.6% and 5.5% in the ten high-income and 11.1% and 5.9% in the eight low- to middle-income countries. The average age of onset ascertained retrospectively was 25.7 in the high-income and 24.0 in low- to middle-income countries. Functional impairment was associated with recency of MDE. The female: male ratio was about 2: 1. In high-income countries, younger age was associated with higher 12-month prevalence; by contrast, in several low-to middle-income countries, older age was associated with greater likelihood of MDE. The strongest demographic correlate in high-income countries was being separated from a partner, and in low- to middle-income countries, was being divorced or widowed. Conclusions: MDE is a significant public-health concern across all regions of the world and is strongly linked to social conditions. Future research is needed to investigate the combination of demographic risk factors that are most strongly associated with MDE in the specific countries included in the WMH.

Impact of Manaus City on the Amazon Green Ocean atmosphere: ozone production, precursor sensitivity and aerosol load

As a contribution to the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia - Cooperative LBA Airborne Regional Experiment (LBA-CLAIRE-2001) field campaign in the heart of the Amazon Basin, we analyzed the temporal and spatial dynamics of the urban plume of Manaus City during the wet-to-dry season transition period in July 2001. During the flights, we performed vertical stacks of crosswind transects in the urban outflow downwind of Manaus City, measuring a comprehensive set of trace constituents including O(3), NO, NO(2), CO, VOC, CO(2), and H(2)O. Aerosol loads were characterized by concentrations of total aerosol number (CN) and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and by light scattering properties. Measurements over pristine rainforest areas during the campaign showed low levels of pollution from biomass burning or industrial emissions, representative of wet season background conditions. The urban plume of Manaus City was found to be joined by plumes from power plants south of the city, all showing evidence of very strong photochemical ozone formation. One episode is discussed in detail, where a threefold increase in ozone mixing ratios within the atmospheric boundary layer occurred within a 100 km travel distance downwind of Manaus. Observation-based estimates of the ozone production rates in the plume reached 15 ppb h(-1). Within the plume core, aerosol concentrations were strongly enhanced, with Delta CN/Delta CO ratios about one order of magnitude higher than observed in Amazon biomass burning plumes. Delta CN/Delta CO ratios tended to decrease with increasing transport time, indicative of a significant reduction in particle number by coagulation, and without substantial new particle nucleation occurring within the time/space observed. While in the background atmosphere a large fraction of the total particle number served as CCN (about 60-80% at 0.6% supersaturation), the CCN/CN ratios within the plume indicated that only a small fraction (16 +/- 12 %) of the plume particles were CCN. The fresh plume aerosols showed relatively weak light scattering efficiency. The CO-normalized CCN concentrations and light scattering coefficients increased with plume age in most cases, suggesting particle growth by condensation of soluble organic or inorganic species. We used a Single Column Chemistry and Transport Model (SCM) to infer the urban pollution emission fluxes of Manaus City, implying observed mixing ratios of CO, NO(x) and VOC. The model can reproduce the temporal/spatial distribution of ozone enhancements in the Manaus plume, both with and without accounting for the distinct (high NO(x)) contribution by the power plants; this way examining the sensitivity of ozone production to changes in the emission rates of NO(x). The VOC reactivity in the Manaus region was dominated by a high burden of biogenic isoprene from the background rainforest atmosphere, and therefore NO(x) control is assumed to be the most effective ozone abatement strategy. Both observations and models show that the agglomeration of NO(x) emission sources, like power plants, in a well-arranged area can decrease the ozone production efficiency in the near field of the urban populated cores. But on the other hand remote areas downwind of the city then bear the brunt, being exposed to increased ozone production and N-deposition. The simulated maximum stomatal ozone uptake fluxes were 4 nmol m(-2) s(-1) close to Manaus, and decreased only to about 2 nmol m(-2) s(-1) within a travel distance >1500 km downwind from Manaus, clearly exceeding the critical threshold level for broadleaf trees. Likewise, the simulated N deposition close to Manaus was similar to 70 kg N ha(-1) a(-1) decreasing only to about 30 kg N ha(-1) a(-1) after three days of simulation.

Tidal-amplitude rhythms of larval release: variable departure from presumed optimal timing among populations of the mottled shore crab

It is widely assumed that optimal timing of larval release is of major importance to offspring survival, but the extent to which environmental factors entrain synchronous reproductive rhythms in natural populations is not well known. We sampled the broods of ovigerous females of the common shore crab Pachygrapsus transversus at both sheltered and exposed rocky shores interspersed along a so-km coastline, during four different periods, to better assess inter-population differences of larval release timing and to test for the effect of wave action. Shore-specific patterns were consistent through time. Maximum release fell within 1 day around syzygies on all shores, which matched dates of maximum tidal amplitude. Within this very narrow range, populations at exposed shores anticipated hatching compared to those at sheltered areas, possibly due to mechanical stimulation by wave action. Average departures from syzygial release ranged consistently among shores from 2.4 to 3.3 days, but in this case we found no evidence for the effect of wave exposure. Therefore, processes varying at the scale of a few kilometres affect the precision of semilunar timing and may produce differences in the survival of recently hatched larvae. Understanding the underlying mechanisms causing departures from presumed optimal release timing is thus important for a more comprehensive evaluation of reproductive success of invertebrate populations.