Beyond point forecasting : evaluation of alternative prediction intervals for tourist arrivals

This paper evaluates the performances of prediction intervals generated from alternative time series models, in the context of tourism forecasting. The forecasting methods considered include the autoregressive (AR) model, the AR model using the bias-corrected bootstrap, seasonal ARIMA models, innovations state space models for exponential smoothing, and Harvey’s structural time series models. We use thirteen monthly time series for the number of tourist arrivals to Hong Kong and Australia. The mean coverage rates and widths of the alternative prediction intervals are evaluated in an empirical setting. It is found that all models produce satisfactory prediction intervals, except for the autoregressive model. In particular, those based on the biascorrected bootstrap perform best in general, providing tight intervals with accurate coverage rates, especially when the forecast horizon is long.

Numerical modelling of an imping jet

Impinging flow occurs when a fluid impacts a comparatively solid boundary upon which divergence occurs. A perfect example of an impinging flow is the impact and divergence of air at ground level during a thunderstorm outflow. The importance of modelling thunderstorm outflows, and in particular the downburst is now well-known to the wind engineering community and research into many of its characteristics is underway throughout the world. The reader is directed to the text by Fujita [I] for an introduction to downburst concepts and theory.

Arterial short-term travel time prediction using Bluetooth data

This project recognized lack of data analysis and travel time prediction on arterials as the main gap in the current literature. For this purpose it first investigated reliability of data gathered by Bluetooth technology as a new cost effective method for data collection on arterial roads. Then by considering the similarity among varieties of daily travel time on different arterial routes, created a SARIMA model to predict future travel time values. Based on this research outcome, the created model can be applied for online short term travel time prediction in future.

Nanosphere monolayer-templated, ion-assisted nanofeature etching in dielectric materials : a numerical simulation of nanoscale ion flux topography

The results of numerical simulations of nanometer precision distributions of microscopic ion fluxes in ion-assisted etching of nanoscale features on the surfaces of dielectric materials using a self-assembled monolayer of spherical nanoparticles as a mask are presented. It is shown that the ion fluxes to the substrate and nanosphere surfaces can be effectively controlled by the plasma parameters and the external bias applied to the substrate. By proper adjustment of these parameters, the ion flux can be focused onto the areas uncovered by the nanospheres. Under certain conditions, the ion flux distributions feature sophisticated hexagonal patterns, which may lead to very different nanofeature etching profiles. The results presented are generic and suggest viable ways to overcome some of the limitations of the existing plasma-assisted nanolithography.

Multi-scale hybrid numerical simulation of the growth of high-aspect-ratio nanostructures

Recently, a variety high-aspect-ratio nanostructures have been grown and profiled for various applications ranging from field emission transistors to gene/drug delivery devices. However, fabricating and processing arrays of these structures and determining how changing certain physical parameters affects the final outcome is quite challenging. We have developed several modules that can be used to simulate the processes of various physical vapour deposition systems from precursor interaction in the gas phase to gas-surface interactions and surface processes. In this paper, multi-scale hybrid numerical simulations are used to study how low-temperature non-equilibrium plasmas can be employed in the processing of high-aspect-ratio structures such that the resulting nanostructures have properties suitable for their eventual device application. We show that whilst using plasma techniques is beneficial in many nanofabrication processes, it is especially useful in making dense arrays of high-aspect-ratio nanostructures.

Part 2. MOO methods for multidisciplinary design using parallel evolutionary algorithms, game theory and hierarchical topology. (Part 2.) Numerical aspects and implementation of model test cases

These lecture notes describe the use and implementation of a framework in which mathematical as well as engineering optimisation problems can be analysed. The foundations of the framework and algorithms described -Hierarchical Asynchronous Parallel Evolutionary Algorithms (HAPEAs) - lie upon traditional evolution strategies and incorporate the concepts of a multi-objective optimisation, hierarchical topology, asynchronous evaluation of candidate solutions , parallel computing and game strategies. In a step by step approach, the numerical implementation of EAs and HAPEAs for solving multi criteria optimisation problems is conducted providing the reader with the knowledge to reproduce these hand on training in his – her- academic or industrial environment.

Numerical simulation of self-organized nano-islands in plasma-based assembly of quantum dot arrays

This work presents the details of the numerical model used in simulation of self-organization of nano-islands on solid surfaces in plasma-assisted assembly of quantum dot structures. The model includes the near-substrate non-neutral layer (plasma sheath) and a nanostructured solid deposition surface and accounts for the incoming flux of and energy of ions from the plasma, surface temperature-controlled adatom migration about the surface, adatom collisions with other adatoms and nano-islands, adatom inflow to the growing nano-islands from the plasma and from the two-dimensional vapour on the surface, and particle evaporation to the ambient space and the two-dimensional vapour. The differences in surface concentrations of adatoms in different areas within the quantum dot pattern significantly affect the self-organization of the nano-islands. The model allows one to formulate the conditions when certain islands grow, and certain ones shrink or even dissolve and relate them to the process control parameters. Surface coverage by selforganized quantum dots obtained from numerical simulation appears to be in reasonable agreement with the available experimental results.

Numerical modelling and analysis of the blast performance of laminated glass panels and the influence of material parameters

This paper presents a comprehensive numerical procedure to treat the blast response of laminated glass (LG) panels and studies the influence of important material parameters. Post-crack behaviour of the LG panel and the contribution of the interlayer towards blast resistance are treated. Modelling techniques are validated by comparing with existing experimental results. Findings indicate that the tensile strength of glass considerably influences the blast response of LG panels while the interlayer material properties have a major impact on the response under higher blast loads. Initially, glass panes absorb most of the blast energy, but after the glass breaks, interlayer deforms further and absorbs most of the blast energy. LG panels should be designed to fail by tearing of the interlayer rather than failure at the supports to achieve a desired level of protection. From this aspect, material properties of glass, interlayer and sealant joints play important roles, but unfortunately they are not accounted for in the current design standards. The new information generated in this paper will enhance the capabilities of engineers to better design LG panels under blast loads and use better materials to improve the blast response of LG panels.

Numerical simulation of nanoparticle-generating electronegative plasmas in the PECVD of nanostructured silicon film

The results of numerical simulation of the equilibrium parameters of a low pressure nanopowder-generating discharge in silane for the plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD) of nanostructured silicon-based films are presented. It is shown that a low electron temperature and a low density of negative SiH3 - ions are favorable for the PECVD process. This opens a possibility to predict the main parameters of the reactive plasma and plasma-nucleated nanoparticles, and hence, to control the quality of silicon nanofilms.

Robust and reversible numerical set watermarking

Numeric sets can be used to store and distribute important information such as currency exchange rates and stock forecasts. It is useful to watermark such data for proving ownership in case of illegal distribution by someone. This paper analyzes the numerical set watermarking model presented by Sion et. al in “On watermarking numeric sets”, identifies it’s weaknesses, and proposes a novel scheme that overcomes these problems. One of the weaknesses of Sion’s watermarking scheme is the requirement to have a normally-distributed set, which is not true for many numeric sets such as forecast figures. Experiments indicate that the scheme is also susceptible to subset addition and secondary watermarking attacks. The watermarking model we propose can be used for numeric sets with arbitrary distribution. Theoretical analysis and experimental results show that the scheme is strongly resilient against sorting, subset selection, subset addition, distortion, and secondary watermarking attacks.

A novel approach for numerical simulation of plant tissue shrinkage during drying

Drying is a key processing techniques used in food engineering which demands continual developments on advanced analysis techniques in order to optimize the product and the process. In this regard, plant based materials are a frequent subject of interest where microstructural studies can provide a clearer understanding on the fundamental physical mechanisms involved. In this context, considering numerous challenges of using conventional numerical grid-based modelling techniques, a meshfree particle based model was developed to simulate extreme deformations of plant microstructure during drying. The proposed technique is based on a particle based meshfree method: Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) and a Discrete Element Method (DEM). A tissue model was developed by aggrading individual cells modelled with SPH-DEM coupled approach by initializing the cells as hexagons and aggregating them to form a tissue. The model also involves a middle lamella resembling real tissues. Using the model, different dried tissue states were simulated with different moisture content, the turgor pressure, and cell wall contraction effects. Compared to the state of the art grid-based microscale plant tissue drying models, the proposed model is capable of simulating plant tissues at lower moisture contents which results in excessive shrinkage and cell wall wrinkling. Model predictions were compared with experimental findings and a fairly good agreement was observed both qualitatively and quantitatively.

Enhanced stochastic mobility prediction with multi-output Gaussian processes

Outdoor robots such as planetary rovers must be able to navigate safely and reliably in order to successfully perform missions in remote or hostile environments. Mobility prediction is critical to achieving this goal due to the inherent control uncertainty faced by robots traversing natural terrain. We propose a novel algorithm for stochastic mobility prediction based on multi-output Gaussian process regression. Our algorithm considers the correlation between heading and distance uncertainty and provides a predictive model that can easily be exploited by motion planning algorithms. We evaluate our method experimentally and report results from over 30 trials in a Mars-analogue environment that demonstrate the effectiveness of our method and illustrate the importance of mobility prediction in navigating challenging terrain.

Numerical investigation of graphene and graphene-polymer nanocomposites

This thesis is a comprehensive and deep investigation on graphene and graphene-polymer nanocomposites. It explores the strong structure-property relationships in both graphene and graphene-based polymeric nanocomposites. A number of significant conclusions, including failure mechanism in graphene, interfacial load transfer and thermal transport mechanisms in graphene-polymer nanocomposites, have been drawn through both atomistic simulations and theoretical analysis. These results can provide direct guidelines for development of new graphene-based materials and devices.

Experimental and numerical study of polymeric foam efficacy in portable water filled barriers

Portable, water filled road safety barriers are used to provide protection and reduce the potential hazard due to errant vehicles in areas where the road conditions change frequently (e.g. near road work sites). As part of an effort to reduce excessive working widths typical of these systems, a study was conducted to assess the effectiveness of introducing polymeric foam filled panels into the design. Surrogate impact tests of a design typical of such as barrier system were conducted utilising a pneumatically powered horizontal impact testing machine up to impact energies of 7.40 kJ. Results of these tests are utilised to examine the barrier behaviour, in addition to being used to validate a couple FE/SPH model of the barrier system. Once validated, the FE/SPH model it utilised as the basis for a parametric study into the efficacy and effects of the inclusion of polymeric foam filled panels on the performance of portable water filled road safety barriers. It was found that extruded polystyrene foam functioned well, with a greater thickness of the foam panel significantly reducing the impacting body velocity as the barrier began to translate.

Three-dimensional off-design numerical analysis of an organic Rankine cycle radial-inflow turbine

Optimisation of organic Rankine cycles(ORCs for binary cycle applications could play a major role in determining the competitiveness of low to moderate renewable sources. An important aspect of the optimisation is to maximise the turbine output power for a given resource. This requires careful attention to the turbine design notably through numerical simulations. Challenges in the numerical modelling of radial-inflow turbines using high-density working fluids still need to be addressed in order to improve the turbine design and better optimise ORCs. Thispaper presents preliminary 3D numerical simulations of a high-density radial-inflow ORC turbine in sensible geothermal conditions. Following extensive investigation of the operating conditions and thermodynamic cycle analysis, therefrigerant R143a is chosen as the high-density working fluid. The 1D design of the candidate radial-inflow turbine is presented in details. Furthermore, commercially-available software Ansys-CFX is used to perform preliminary steady-state 3D CFD simulations of the candidate R143a radial-inflow turbine for a number of operating conditions including off-design conditions. The real-gas properties are obtained using the Peng–Robinson equations of state.The thermodynamic ORC cycle is presented. The preliminary design created using dedicated radial-inflow turbine software Concepts-Rital is discussed and the 3D CFD results are presented and compared against the meanline analysis.