Nonlinear MHD stability of aluminium reduction cells

An industrial electrolysis cell used to produce primary aluminium is sensitive to waves at the interface of liquid aluminium and electrolyte. The interface waves are similar to stratified sea layers [1], but the penetrating electric current and the associated magnetic field are intricately involved in the oscillation process, and the observed wave frequencies are shifted from the purely hydrodynamic ones [2]. The interface stability problem is of great practical importance because the electrolytic aluminium production is a major electrical energy consumer, and it is related to environmental pollution rate. The stability analysis was started in [3] and a short summary of the main developments is given in [2]. Important aspects of the multiple mode interaction have been introduced in [4], and a widely used linear friction law first applied in [5]. In [6] a systematic perturbation expansion is developed for the fluid dynamics and electric current problems permitting reduction of the three-dimensional problem to a two dimensional one. The procedure is more generally known as “shallow water approximation” which can be extended for the case of weakly non-linear and dispersive waves. The Boussinesq formulation permits to generalise the problem for non-unidirectionally propagating waves accounting for side walls and for a two fluid layer interface [1]. Attempts to extend the electrolytic cell wave modelling to the weakly nonlinear case have started in [7] where the basic equations are derived, including the nonlinearity and linear dispersion terms. An alternative approach for the nonlinear numerical simulation for an electrolysis cell wave evolution is attempted in [8 and references there], yet, omitting the dispersion terms and without a proper account for the dissipation, the model can predict unstable waves growth only. The present paper contains a generalisation of the previous non linear wave equations [7] by accounting for the turbulent horizontal circulation flows in the two fluid layers. The inclusion of the turbulence model is essential in order to explain the small amplitude self-sustained oscillations of the liquid metal surface observed in real cells, known as “MHD noise”. The fluid dynamic model is coupled to the extended electromagnetic simulation including not only the fluid layers, but the whole bus bar circuit and the ferromagnetic effects [9].

Dynamic analysis of Flip-Chip Self-Alignment

Self-alignment of soldered electronic components such as flip-chips (FC), ball grid arrays (BGA) and optoelectronic devices during solder reflow is important as it ensures good alignment between components and substrates. Two uncoupled analytical models are presented which provide estimates of the dynamic time scales of both the chip and the solder in the self-alignment process. These predicted time scales can be used to decide whether a coupled dynamic analysis is required for the analysis of the chip motion. In this paper, we will show that for flip-chips, the alignment dynamics can be described accurately only when the chip motion is coupled with the solder motion because the two have similar time-scale values. To study this coupled phenomenon, a dynamic modeling method has been developed. The modeling results show that the uncoupled and coupled calculations result in significantly different predictions. The calculations based on the coupled model predict much faster rates of alignment than those predicted using the uncoupled approach.

Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model

Climate change has already altered the distribution of marine fishes. Future predictions of fish distributions and catches based on bioclimate envelope models are available, but to date they have not considered interspecific interactions. We address this by combining the species-based Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM) with a size-based trophic model. The new approach provides spatially and temporally resolved predictions of changes in species' size, abundance and catch potential that account for the effects of ecological interactions. Predicted latitudinal shifts are, on average, reduced by 20% when species interactions are incorporated, compared to DBEM predictions, with pelagic species showing the greatest reductions. Goodness-of-fit of biomass data from fish stock assessments in the North Atlantic between 1991 and 2003 is improved slightly by including species interactions. The differences between predictions from the two models may be relatively modest because, at the North Atlantic basin scale, (i) predators and competitors may respond to climate change together; (ii) existing parameterization of the DBEM might implicitly incorporate trophic interactions; and/or (iii) trophic interactions might not be the main driver of responses to climate. Future analyses using ecologically explicit models and data will improve understanding of the effects of inter-specific interactions on responses to climate change, and better inform managers about plausible ecological and fishery consequences of a changing environment.

Spatio-temporal Bayesian network models with latent variables for revealing trophic dynamics and functional networks in fisheries ecology

Ecosystems consist of complex dynamic interactions among species and the environment, the understanding of which has implications for predicting the environmental response to changes in climate and biodiversity. However, with the recent adoption of more explorative tools, like Bayesian networks, in predictive ecology, few assumptions can be made about the data and complex, spatially varying interactions can be recovered from collected field data. In this study, we compare Bayesian network modelling approaches accounting for latent effects to reveal species dynamics for 7 geographically and temporally varied areas within the North Sea. We also apply structure learning techniques to identify functional relationships such as prey–predator between trophic groups of species that vary across space and time. We examine if the use of a general hidden variable can reflect overall changes in the trophic dynamics of each spatial system and whether the inclusion of a specific hidden variable can model unmeasured group of species. The general hidden variable appears to capture changes in the variance of different groups of species biomass. Models that include both general and specific hidden variables resulted in identifying similarity with the underlying food web dynamics and modelling spatial unmeasured effect. We predict the biomass of the trophic groups and find that predictive accuracy varies with the models' features and across the different spatial areas thus proposing a model that allows for spatial autocorrelation and two hidden variables. Our proposed model was able to produce novel insights on this ecosystem's dynamics and ecological interactions mainly because we account for the heterogeneous nature of the driving factors within each area and their changes over time. Our findings demonstrate that accounting for additional sources of variation, by combining structure learning from data and experts' knowledge in the model architecture, has the potential for gaining deeper insights into the structure and stability of ecosystems. Finally, we were able to discover meaningful functional networks that were spatially and temporally differentiated with the particular mechanisms varying from trophic associations through interactions with climate and commercial fisheries.

Simulation of Dynamic Operation of a Single-Cylinder Two-Stroke Engine

Presented is a study that expands the body of knowledge on the effect of in-cycle speed fluctuations on performance of small engines. It uses the engine and drivetrain models developed previously by Callahan, et al. (1) to examine a variety of engines. The predicted performance changes due to drivetrain effects are shown in each case, and conclusions are drawn from those results. The single-cylinder, high performance four-stroke engine showed significant changes in predicted performance compared to the prediction with zero speed fluctuation in the model. Measured speed fluctuations from a firing Yamaha YZ426 engine were applied to the simulation in addition to data from a simple free mass model. Both methods predicted similar changes in performance. The multiple-cylinder, high performance two-stroke engine also showed significant changes in performance depending on the firing configuration. With both engines, the change in performance diminished with increasing mean engine speed. The low output, single-cylinder two-stroke engine simulation showed only a negligible change in performance, even with high amplitude speed fluctuations. Because the torque versus engine speed characteristic for the engine was so flat, this was expected. The cross-charged, multi-cylinder two-stroke engine also showed only a negligible change in performance. In this case, the combination of a relatively high inertia rotating assembly and the multiple cylinder firing events within the revolution smoothing the torque pulsations reduced the speed fluctuation amplitude itself.

Comparing whole-link travel time models used in DTA

In a model commonly used in dynamic traffic assignment the link travel time for a vehicle entering a link at time t is taken as a function of the number of vehicles on the link at time t. In an alternative recently introduced model, the travel time for a vehicle entering a link at time t is taken as a function of an estimate of the flow in the immediate neighbourhood of the vehicle, averaged over the time the vehicle is traversing the link. Here we compare the solutions obtained from these two models when applied to various inflow profiles. We also divide the link into segments, apply each model sequentially to the segments and again compare the results. As the number of segments is increased, the discretisation refined to the continuous limit, the solutions from the two models converge to the same solution, which is the solution of the Lighthill, Whitham, Richards (LWR) model for traffic flow. We illustrate the results for different travel time functions and patterns of inflows to the link. In the numerical examples the solutions from the second of the two models are closer to the limit solutions. We also show that the models converge even when the link segments are not homogeneous, and introduce a correction scheme in the second model to compensate for an approximation error, hence improving the approximation to the LWR model.

Nonlinear response of permanent dipoles in a uniaxial potential to alternating fields

It is shown how the existing theory of the dynamic Kerr effect and nonlinear dielectric relaxation based on the noninertial Brownian rotation of noninteracting rigid dipolar particles may be generalized to take into account interparticle interactions using the Maier-Saupe mean field potential. The results (available in simple closed form) suggest that the frequency dependent nonlinear response provides a method of measuring the Kramers escape rate (or in the analogous problem of magnetic relaxation of fine single domain ferromagnetic particles, the superparamagnetic relaxation time).

Dynamic analysis of employment trajectories through the concept of fl exicurity

The paper presents a dynamic study of the Spanish labour market which tries to determine if it matches the characteristics of transitional labour markets from a fl exicurity approach. Employment trajectories of Spanish workers during the years 2007-2010 are studied using the Continuous Sample of Working Lives. This period covers the end of the expansion of the Spanish economy and the beginning of the current employment crisis. From the combination of the chosen topic, the approach, and the database used, this is a novel perspective in our country. The article shows evidence of the evolution of the employment and unemployment spells, the Spanish labour market turnover degree, and the diffi culties of some groups for carrying out transition between employment and unemployment. The results obtained show a labour market in which a) transitions have come to a halt, and b) there is high job insecurity.

Microscopic models for dielectric relaxation in disordered systems

It is shown how the Debye rotational diffusion model of dielectric relaxation of polar molecules (which may be described in microscopic fashion as the diffusion limit of a discrete time random walk on the surface of the unit sphere) may be extended to yield the empirical Havriliak-Negami (HN) equation of anomalous dielectric relaxation from a microscopic model based on a kinetic equation just as in the Debye model. This kinetic equation is obtained by means of a generalization of the noninertial Fokker-Planck equation of conventional Brownian motion (generally known as the Smoluchowski equation) to fractional kinetics governed by the HN relaxation mechanism. For the simple case of noninteracting dipoles it may be solved by Fourier transform techniques to yield the Green function and the complex dielectric susceptibility corresponding to the HN anomalous relaxation mechanism.

Simple models of complex aggregation: Vesicle formation by soft repulsive spheres with dipolelike interactions

Structural and thermodynamic properties of spherical particles carrying classical spins are investigated by Monte Carlo simulations. The potential energy is the sum of short range, purely repulsive pair contributions, and spin-spin interactions. These last are of the dipole-dipole form, with however, a crucial change of sign. At low density and high temperature the system is a homogeneous fluid of weakly interacting particles and short range spin correlations. With decreasing temperature particles condense into an equilibrium population of free floating vesicles. The comparison with the electrostatic case, giving rise to predominantly one-dimensional aggregates under similar conditions, is discussed. In both cases condensation is a continuous transformation, provided the isotropic part of the interatomic potential is purely repulsive. At low temperature the model allows us to investigate thermal and mechanical properties of membranes. At intermediate temperatures it provides a simple model to investigate equilibrium polymerization in a system giving rise to predominantly two-dimensional aggregates.

Genetic algorithms for local controller network construction

Local Controller Networks (LCNs) provide nonlinear control by interpolating between a set of locally valid, subcontrollers covering the operating range of the plant. Constructing such networks typically requires knowledge of valid local models. This paper describes a new genetic learning approach to the construction of LCNs directly from the dynamic equations of the plant, or from modelling data. The advantage is that a priori knowledge about valid local models is not needed. In addition to allowing simultaneous optimisation of both the controller and validation function parameters, the approach aids transparency by ensuring that each local controller acts independently of the rest at its operating point. It thus is valuable for simultaneous design of the LCNs and identification of the operating regimes of an unknown plant. Application results from a highly nonlinear pH neutralisation process and its associated neural network representation are utilised to illustrate these issues.

On velocity-based local model networks for nonlinear identification

This paper exposes the strengths and weaknesses of the recently proposed velocity-based local model (LM) network. The global dynamics of the velocity-based blended representation are directly related to the dynamics of the underlying local models, an important property in the design of local controller networks. Furthermore, the sub-models are continuous-time and linear providing continuity with established linear theory and methods. This is not true for the conventional LM framework, where the global dynamics are only weakly related to the affine sub-models. In this paper, a velocity-based multiple model network is identified for a highly nonlinear dynamical system. The results show excellent dynamical modelling performances, highlighting the value of the velocity-based approach for the design and analysis of LM based control. Three important practical issues are also addressed. These relate to the blending of the velocity-based local models, the use of normalised Gaussian basis functions and the requirement of an input derivative.

Constructing networks of continuous-time velocity-based models

A conventional local model (LM) network consists of a set of affine local models blended together using appropriate weighting functions. Such networks have poor interpretability since the dynamics of the blended network are only weakly related to the underlying local models. In contrast, velocity-based LM networks employ strictly linear local models to provide a transparent framework for nonlinear modelling in which the global dynamics are a simple linear combination of the local model dynamics. A novel approach for constructing continuous-time velocity-based networks from plant data is presented. Key issues including continuous-time parameter estimation, correct realisation of the velocity-based local models and avoidance of the input derivative are all addressed. Application results are reported for the highly nonlinear simulated continuous stirred tank reactor process.

Integrated structure selection and parameter optimisation for eng-genes neural models

The eng-genes concept involves the use of fundamental known system functions as activation functions in a neural model to create a 'grey-box' neural network. One of the main issues in eng-genes modelling is to produce a parsimonious model given a model construction criterion. The challenges are that (1) the eng-genes model in most cases is a heterogenous network consisting of more than one type of nonlinear basis functions, and each basis function may have different set of parameters to be optimised; (2) the number of hidden nodes has to be chosen based on a model selection criterion. This is a mixed integer hard problem and this paper investigates the use of a forward selection algorithm to optimise both the network structure and the parameters of the system-derived activation functions. Results are included from case studies performed on a simulated continuously stirred tank reactor process, and using actual data from a pH neutralisation plant. The resulting eng-genes networks demonstrate superior simulation performance and transparency over a range of network sizes when compared to conventional neural models. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Length of Stay-Based Patient Flow Models: Recent Developments and Future Directions

Modelling patient flow in health care systems is vital in understanding the system activity and may therefore prove to be useful in improving their functionality. An extensively used measure is the average length of stay which, although easy to calculate and quantify, is not considered appropriate when the distribution is very long-tailed. In fact, simple deterministic models are generally considered inadequate because of the necessity for models to reflect the complex, variable, dynamic and multidimensional nature of the systems. This paper focuses on modelling length of stay and flow of patients. An overview of such modelling techniques is provided, with particular attention to their impact and suitability in managing a hospital service.