Prediction intervals for short-term wind farm power generation forecasts

Quantification of uncertainties associated with wind power generation forecasts is essential for optimal management of wind farms and their successful integration into power systems. This paper investigates two neural network-based methods for direct and rapid construction of prediction intervals (PIs) for short-term forecasting of power generation in wind farms. The lower upper bound estimation and bootstrap methods are used to quantify uncertainties associated with forecasts. The effectiveness and efficiency of these two general methods for uncertainty quantification is examined using twenty four month data from a wind farm in Australia. PIs with a confidence level of 90% are constructed for four forecasting horizons: five, ten, fifteen, and thirty minutes. Quantitative measures are applied for objective evaluation and unbiased comparison of PI quality. Demonstrated results indicate that reliable PIs can be constructed in a short time without resorting to complicate computational methods or models. Also quantitative comparison reveals that bootstrap PIs are more suitable for short prediction horizon, and lower upper bound estimation PIs are more appropriate for longer forecasting horizons.

Cooperative and competitive structures of trust relations in teams

This article argues that it is not just trust-generating but also trust-inhibiting mechanisms that operate in teams, and that these cooperative and competitive structures of interpersonal relations of trust within teams may affect team performance. Specifically, we propose that the presence of trust-generating structures (e.g., reciprocity, trusting in the referrals of others we trust, trusting in high performers and more experienced people) and the absence of trust-inhibiting structures (e.g., not trusting in the referrals of others we trust) are more likely to be associated with successful teams. Using exponential random graph models, a particular class of statistical model for social networks, we examine three professional sporting teams from the Australian Football League for the presence and absence of these mechanisms of interpersonal relations of trust. Quantitative network results indicate a differential presence of these postulated structures of trust relations in line with our hypotheses. Qualitative comparisons of these quantitative findings with team performance measures suggest a link between trust-generating and trust-inhibiting mechanisms of trust and team performance. Further theorization on other trust-inhibiting structures of trust relations and related empirical work is likely to shed further light on these connections.

Inter-organisational knowledge sharing in regional sustainable development communities

There has been an increasing interest in the use of inter-organisational groups to address regional implications in sustainable development. These groups bring together local knowledge and expertise and span boundaries between government and industry organisations. Our focus is in understanding how knowledge is shared in such inter-organisational groups. Utilising interviews, observations and social network analysis, we examine the knowledge sharing implications derived from the mixed membership, multilevel interaction, and the need to span boundaries with external organisations in these collaborations.

How Twitter is being used by Australian engineering academic units

For organisations, social media provide new avenues for communication and collaboration with their stakeholders, however, any value created for an organisation through social media comes not from any particular platforms, but from how they are used. The potential value of social media tools to assist in the successful communication inside and outside of engineering organisations has been identified in the literature. While social media may be widely used by individuals and many organisations, their use in higher education is still relatively new. Applications of social media in engineering education can also be found in the literature, including in work integrated learning. One of the most widely-used social media tools employed by organisations is Twitter. Research on the use of social media by higher education institutions is still limited and evaluation of the impact of social media activities is not straightforward. One approach to evaluation is network analysis.

Characterizing Twitter communication - a case study of international engineering academic units

Engineering academic units might engage with social media for a range of purposes including for general communication with students, staff, alumni, other important stakeholders and the wider community at large; for student recruitment and for marketing and promotion more generally. This paper presents an investigation into the use of Twitter by six engineering academic units internationally, using publicly available Twitter data over an 18-month period for analysis and visualization, to characterize the engagement by engineering academic units with one popular social media tool. Widely varying levels of activity were observed, from essentially undirected 'Megaphone' Tweeting, through to sustained and complex interactions with multiple external accounts. This work provides insights into how engineering academic units are using Twitter and how they might more effectively use the platform to achieve their individual objectives for institutional social media communications and marketing, and offers a methodology for future research. © 2014 © 2014 Taylor & Francis.

Characterizing university library use of social media: a case study of twitter and facebook from Australia

The work presented here characterise the engagement of one university library with two social media platforms popular with academic libraries. The collected data are analysed to identify the forms of Twitter and Facebook activity that engage library stakeholders in social media conversations. Associations were observed between: i) directed tweets from the library and mentions of the library by others on Twitter; and ii) comments from the library and comments from others on Facebook. Three broad classes of Twitter user interacting with the library were revealed: i) accounts strongly linked to the library with multiple to/from tweets; ii) those weakly linked to the library with, typically, a single tweet; and iii) those indirectly linked to the library through tweets mentioning the library and sent by other users. Two divergent forms of Facebook interaction with the library were highlighted: i) a library post generating a large sequence of comments, typically in response to a competition/challenge and ii) a library post with no comments, typically a photo post or a post inviting readers to click a link to find out more about an event/service. The work presented here is an initial investigation that provides useful insights, and offers a methodology for future research.

An interval type-2 fuzzy logic system-based method for prediction interval construction

This paper introduces a new non-parametric method for uncertainty quantification through construction of prediction intervals (PIs). The method takes the left and right end points of the type-reduced set of an interval type-2 fuzzy logic system (IT2FLS) model as the lower and upper bounds of a PI. No assumption is made in regard to the data distribution, behaviour, and patterns when developing intervals. A training method is proposed to link the confidence level (CL) concept of PIs to the intervals generated by IT2FLS models. The new PI-based training algorithm not only ensures that PIs constructed using IT2FLS models satisfy the CL requirements, but also reduces widths of PIs and generates practically informative PIs. Proper adjustment of parameters of IT2FLSs is performed through the minimization of a PI-based objective function. A metaheuristic method is applied for minimization of the non-linear non-differentiable cost function. Performance of the proposed method is examined for seven synthetic and real world benchmark case studies with homogenous and heterogeneous noise. The demonstrated results indicate that the proposed method is capable of generating high quality PIs. Comparative studies also show that the performance of the proposed method is equal to or better than traditional neural network-based methods for construction of PIs in more than 90% of cases. The superiority is more evident for the case of data with a heterogeneous noise. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

Trench stability under bentonite pressure in purely cohesive clay

Trench stability is a conventional geotechnical problem; however, current evaluations are often based entirely on empiricism. This paper uses numerical finite-element upper and lower bound limit analysis to produce stability charts for two-dimensional and three-dimensional homogeneous and inhomogeneous undrained diaphragm wall trenches. Using the limit theorems cannot only provide a simple and useful way of analyzing the stability of the trench, but also avoid the shortcomings and arbitrary assumptions underpinning the limit equilibrium method. By considering the effects from the bentonite slurry pressures, the collapse load in this study has been bracketed to within ±8.5 or better by the numerical upper and lower bound limit analyses. The chart solutions can be used to predict either the critical depth or the safety factor of the trench and provide a convenient tool for preliminary designs by practicing engineers. © 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Identifying influential nodes in complex networks: A multiple attributes fusion method

How to identify influential nodes is still an open hot issue in complex networks. Lots of methods (e.g., degree centrality, betweenness centrality or K-shell) are based on the topology of a network. These methods work well in scale-free networks. In order to design a universal method suitable for networks with different topologies, this paper proposes a Multiple Attribute Fusion (MAF) method through combining topological attributes and diffused attributes of a node together. Two fusion strategies have been proposed in this paper. One is based on the attribute union (FU), and the other is based on the attribute ranking (FR). Simulation results in the Susceptible-Infected (SI) model show that our proposed method gains more information propagation efficiency in different types of networks. © 2014 Springer International Publishing.

Electrochemical method for studying localized corrosion beneath disbonded coatings under cathodic protection

This paper presents a new method for measuring localized corrosion under disbonded coatings by means of an electrochemical sensor, denoted differential aeration sensor (DAS). It measures the distribution of electrochemical currents over an electrode array surface partially covered by a crevice that simulates a disbonded coating. The DAS has been evaluated using immersion tests at open circuit and under cathodic protection (CP) conditions. Under both conditions, anodic as well as cathodic current densities were detected within the crevice. A fundamental understanding for the detection of anodic currents under CP has been explained in terms of basic electrochemistry. Based on the current distribution data provided by the sensor, two different analysis methods have been used to estimate corrosion and its distribution. These methods consisted of a direct application of Faraday's Law to the anodic currents detected by the array, and on a sensor-specific method denoted corrected currents' method. It has been demonstrated that under diffusion controlled conditions this latter method produces a better corrosion estimation than the direct application of Faraday's Law. The corrected currents' method allowed the estimation of corrosion patterns outside the crevice under CP. Good correlation between electrochemical calculations and surface profilometry results has been obtained.

The relative importance of spatial proximity, kin selection and potential ‘greenbeard’ signals on provisioning behaviour among helpers in a cooperative bird

© 2015 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg Many hypotheses have been proposed to account for cooperative behaviour, with those favouring kin selection receiving the greatest support to date. However, the importance of relatedness becomes less clear in complex societies where interactions can involve both kin and non-kin. To help clarify this, we examined the relative effect of indirect versus key direct benefit hypotheses in shaping cooperative decisions. We assessed the relative importance of likely reciprocal aid (as measured by spatial proximity between participants), kin selection (using molecular-based relatedness indices) and putative signals of relatedness (vocal similarity) on helper/helper cooperative provisioning dynamics in bell miners (Manorina melanophrys), a species living in large, complex societies. Using network analysis, we quantified the extent of shared provisioning (helping at the same nests) among individual helpers (excluding breeding pairs) over three seasons and 4290 provisioning visits, and compared these with the location of individuals within a colony and networks built using either genetic molecular relatedness or call similarity indices. Significant levels of clustering were observed in networks; individuals within a cluster were more closely related to each other than other colony members, and cluster membership was stable across years. The probability of a miner helping at another’s nest was not simply a product of spatial proximity and thus the potential for reciprocal aid. Networks constructed using helping data were significantly correlated to those built using molecular data in 5 of 10 comparisons, compared to 8 of 10 comparisons for networks constructed using call similarity. This suggests an important role of kinship in shaping helping dynamics in a complex cooperative society, apparently determined via an acoustic ‘greenbeard’ signal in this system.

Social networks in changing environments

Social network analysis (SNA) has become a widespread tool for the study of animal social organisation. However despite this broad applicability, SNA is currently limited by both an overly strong focus on pattern analysis as well as a lack of dynamic interaction models. Here, we use a dynamic modelling approach that can capture the responses of social networks to changing environments. Using the guppy, Poecilia reticulata, we identified the general properties of the social dynamics underlying fish social networks and found that they are highly robust to differences in population density and habitat changes. Movement simulations showed that this robustness could buffer changes in transmission processes over a surprisingly large density range. These simulation results suggest that the ability of social systems to self-stabilise could have important implications for the spread of infectious diseases and information. In contrast to habitat manipulations, social manipulations (e.g. change of sex ratios) produced strong, but short-lived, changes in network dynamics. Lastly, we discuss how the evolution of the observed social dynamics might be linked to predator attack strategies. We argue that guppy social networks are an emergent property of social dynamics resulting from predator–prey co-evolution. Our study highlights the need to develop dynamic models of social networks in connection with an evolutionary framework.

Three-dimensional slope stability assessment of two-layered undrained clay

This paper uses the finite element upper and lower bound limit analysis methods to investigate the three-dimensional (3D) slope stability of two-layered undrained clay slopes. The solutions obtained from the slope stability analyses are bracketed to within ±10% or better. For comparison purposes, results from two-dimensional (2D) analyses based on the numerical limit analysis methods and the conventional limit equilibrium method (LEM) are also discussed. This study shows that 3D boundary of a slope can have significant effects on the slope stability. In addition, the results are presented in the form of stability charts which can be convenient tools for practicing engineers.

Patterns of connectivity and population structure of the southern calamary Sepioteuthis australis in southern Australia

The southern calamary, Sepioteuthis australis, is a commercially and recreationally important inshore cephalopod endemic to southern Australia and New Zealand. Typical of other cephalopods, S. australis has a short life span, form nearshore spawning aggregations and undergo direct development. Such life history traits may restrict connectivity between spawning grounds creating highly structured and genetically differentiated populations that are susceptible to population crashes. Here we use seven polymorphic microsatellite markers to assess connectivity and population structure of S. australis across a large part of its geographic range in Australia. Little genetic differentiation was found between sampling locations. Overall, FST was low (0.005, 95% CI≤<0.001-0.011) and we detected no significant genetic differentiation between any of the locations sampled. There was no strong relationship between genetic and geographical distance, and our neighbour joining analysis did not show clustering of clades based on geographical locations. Similarly, network analysis showed strong connectivity amongst most locations, in particular, Tasmania appears to be well connected with several other locations and may act as an important source population. High levels of gene flow and connectivity between S. australis sampling sites across Australia are important for this short-lived species, ensuring resilience against spatial and temporal mortality fluctuations.

Data mining por meio de análise de redes, no contexto de filtro colaborativo

Tendo como motivação o desenvolvimento de uma representação gráfica de redes com grande número de vértices, útil para aplicações de filtro colaborativo, este trabalho propõe a utilização de superfícies de coesão sobre uma base temática multidimensionalmente escalonada. Para isso, utiliza uma combinação de escalonamento multidimensional clássico e análise de procrustes, em algoritmo iterativo que encaminha soluções parciais, depois combinadas numa solução global. Aplicado a um exemplo de transações de empréstimo de livros pela Biblioteca Karl A. Boedecker, o algoritmo proposto produz saídas interpretáveis e coerentes tematicamente, e apresenta um stress menor que a solução por escalonamento clássico.