Assessing the resilience of water supply systems in Oman

Water systems in the Sultanate of Oman are inevitably exposed to varied threats and hazards due to both natural and man-made hazards. Natural disasters, especially tropical cyclone Gonu in 2007, cause immense damage to water supply systems in Oman. At the same time water loss from leaks is a major operational problem. This research developed an integrated approach to identify and rank the risks to the water sources, transmission pipelines and distribution networks in Oman and suggests appropriate mitigation measures. The system resilience was evaluated and an emergency response plan for the water supplies developed. The methodology involved mining the data held by the water supply utility for risk and resilience determination and operational data to support calculations of non-revenue water. Risk factors were identified, ranked and scored at a stakeholder workshop and the operational information required was principally gathered from interviews. Finally, an emergency response plan was developed by evaluating the risk and resilience factors. The risk analysis and assessment used a Coarse Risk Analysis (CRA) approach and risk scores were generated using a simple risk matrix based on WHO recommendations. The likelihoods and consequences of a wide range of hazardous events were identified through a key workshop and subsequent questionnaires. The thesis proposes a method of translating the detailed risk evaluations into resilience scores through a methodology used in transportation networks. A water audit indicated that the percentage of NRW in Oman is greater than 35% which is similar to other Gulf countries but high internationally. The principal strategy for managing NRW used in the research was the AWWA water audit method which includes free to use software and was found to be easy to apply in Oman. The research showed that risks to the main desalination processes can be controlled but the risk due to feed water quality might remain high even after implementing mitigation measures because the intake is close to an oil port with a significant risk of oil contamination and algal blooms. The most severe risks to transmission mains were found to be associated with pipe rather than pump failure. The systems in Oman were found to be moderately resilient, the resilience of desalination plants reasonably high but the transmission mains and pumping stations are very vulnerable. The integrated strategy developed in this study has a wide applicability, particularly in the Gulf area, which may have risks from exceptional events and will be experiencing NRW. Other developing countries may also experience such risks but with different magnitudes and the risk evaluation tables could provide a useful format for further work.

How to deal with uncertainties regarding the occupational exposure to antineoplastic mixtures: additive effect should always be considered?

Risk assessment considerations - The concept that “safe levels of exposure” for humans can be identified for individual chemicals is central to the risk assessment of compounds with known toxicological profiles. Selection of agents for combination chemotherapy regimens involves minimize overlapping of mechanisms of action, antitumor activity and toxicity profile. Although the toxicological profile and mechanism of action of each individual drug is well characterized, the toxicological interactions between drugs are likely, but poorly established at occupational exposure context. The synergistic nature of interactions may help in understanding the adverse health effects observed in healthcare workers, where exposure situations are characterized by complex mixtures of chemical agents, and the levels of individual exposing agents are often not sufficiently high to explain the health complaints. However, if a substance is a genotoxic carcinogen, this would be the “lead effect”; normally, no OEL based on a NOEL would be derived and the level would be set so low that it would be unlikely that other effects would be expected. Aim of the study - Recently research project developed in Portuguese Hospitals characterize the occupational exposure to antineoplastic agents and the health effects related. The project aimed to assess exposure of the different risk groups that handle antineoplastic agents in the hospital setting, namely during preparation and administration of these drugs. Here it is presented and discussed the results in a study developed in two hospitals from Lisbon.

Development of gene expression-based biomarkers of exposure to metals and pesticides in the freshwater amphipod Hyalella azteca

Ecological risk assessment (ERA) is a framework for monitoring risks of exposure and adverse effects of environmental stressors to populations or communities of interest. One tool of ERA is the biomarker, which is a characteristic of an organism that reliably indicates exposure to or effects of a stressor like chemical pollution. Traditional biomarkers which rely on characteristics at the tissue level and higher often detect only acute exposures to stressors. Sensitive molecular biomarkers may detect lower stressor levels than traditional biomarkers, which helps inform risk mitigation and restoration efforts before populations and communities are irreversibly affected. In this study I developed gene expression-based molecular biomarkers of exposure to metals and insecticides in the model toxicological freshwater amphipod Hyalella azteca. My goals were to not only create sensitive molecular biomarkers for these chemicals, but also to show the utility and versatility of H. azteca in molecular studies for toxicology and risk assessment. I sequenced and assembled the H. azteca transcriptome to identify reference and stress-response gene transcripts suitable for expression monitoring. I exposed H. azteca to sub-lethal concentrations of metals (cadmium and copper) and insecticides (DDT, permethrin, and imidacloprid). Reference genes used to create normalization factors were determined for each exposure using the programs BestKeeper, GeNorm, and NormFinder. Both metals increased expression of a nuclear transcription factor (Cnc), an ABC transporter (Mrp4), and a heat shock protein (Hsp90), giving evidence of general metal exposure signature. Cadmium uniquely increased expression of a DNA repair protein (Rad51) and increased Mrp4 expression more than copper (7-fold increase compared to 2-fold increase). Together these may be unique biomarkers distinguishing cadmium and copper exposures. DDT increased expression of Hsp90, Mrp4, and the immune response gene Lgbp. Permethrin increased expression of a cytochrome P450 (Cyp2j2) and decreased expression of the immune response gene Lectin-1. Imidacloprid did not affect gene expression. Unique biomarkers were seen for DDT and permethrin, but the genes studied were not sensitive enough to detect imidacloprid at the levels used here. I demonstrated that gene expression in H. azteca detects specific chemical exposures at sub-lethal concentrations, making expression monitoring using this amphipod a useful and sensitive biomarker for risk assessment of chemical exposure.

EXPOSURE TO EXTREME HEAT EVENTS AND CHRONIC RESPIRATORY DISEASES AMONG A NATIONALLY REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLE OF THE UNITED STATES POPULATION

Previous studies have shown that extreme weather events are on the rise in response to our changing climate. Such events are projected to become more frequent, more intense, and longer lasting. A consistent exposure metric for measuring these extreme events as well as information regarding how these events lead to ill health are needed to inform meaningful adaptation strategies that are specific to the needs of local communities. Using federal meteorological data corresponding to 17 years (1997-2013) of the National Health Interview Survey, this research: 1) developed a location-specific exposure metric that captures individuals’ “exposure” at a spatial scale that is consistent with publicly available county-level health outcome data; 2) characterized the United States’ population in counties that have experienced higher numbers of extreme heat events and thus identified population groups likely to experience future events; and 3) developed an empirical model describing the association between exposure to extreme heat events and hay fever. This research confirmed that the natural modes of forcing (e.g., El Niño-Southern Oscillation), seasonality, urban-rural classification, and division of country have an impact on the number extreme heat events recorded. Also, many of the areas affected by extreme heat events are shown to have a variety of vulnerable populations including women of childbearing age, people who are poor, and older adults. Lastly, this research showed that adults in the highest quartile of exposure to extreme heat events had a 7% increased odds of hay fever compared to those in the lowest quartile, suggesting that exposure to extreme heat events increases risk of hay fever among US adults.

Hyperspectral sensing to detect the impact of herbicide drift on cotton growth and yield

Yield loss in crops is often associated with plant disease or external factors such as environment, water supply and nutrient availability. Improper agricultural practices can also introduce risks into the equation. Herbicide drift can be a combination of improper practices and environmental conditions which can create a potential yield loss. As traditional assessment of plant damage is often imprecise and time consuming, the ability of remote and proximal sensing techniques to monitor various bio-chemical alterations in the plant may offer a faster, non-destructive and reliable approach to predict yield loss caused by herbicide drift. This paper examines the prediction capabilities of partial least squares regression (PLS-R) models for estimating yield. Models were constructed with hyperspectral data of a cotton crop sprayed with three simulated doses of the phenoxy herbicide 2,4-D at three different growth stages. Fibre quality, photosynthesis, conductance, and two main hormones, indole acetic acid (IAA) and abscisic acid (ABA) were also analysed. Except for fibre quality and ABA, Spearman correlations have shown that these variables were highly affected by the chemical. Four PLS-R models for predicting yield were developed according to four timings of data collection: 2, 7, 14 and 28 days after the exposure (DAE). As indicated by the model performance, the analysis revealed that 7 DAE was the best time for data collection purposes (RMSEP = 2.6 and R2 = 0.88), followed by 28 DAE (RMSEP = 3.2 and R2 = 0.84). In summary, the results of this study show that it is possible to accurately predict yield after a simulated herbicide drift of 2,4-D on a cotton crop, through the analysis of hyperspectral data, thereby providing a reliable, effective and non-destructive alternative based on the internal response of the cotton leaves.

"Last-Mile" preparation for a potential disaster - Interdisciplinary approach towards tsunami early warning and an evacuation information system for the coastal city of Padang, Indonesia

Extreme natural events, like e.g. tsunamis or earthquakes, regularly lead to catastrophes with dramatic consequences. In recent years natural disasters caused hundreds of thousands of deaths, destruction of infrastructure, disruption of economic activity and loss of billions of dollars worth of property and thus revealed considerable deficits hindering their effective management: Needs for stakeholders, decision-makers as well as for persons concerned include systematic risk identification and evaluation, a way to assess countermeasures, awareness raising and decision support systems to be employed before, during and after crisis situations. The overall goal of this study focuses on interdisciplinary integration of various scientific disciplines to contribute to a tsunami early warning information system. In comparison to most studies our focus is on high-end geometric and thematic analysis to meet the requirements of smallscale, heterogeneous and complex coastal urban systems. Data, methods and results from engineering, remote sensing and social sciences are interlinked and provide comprehensive information for disaster risk assessment, management and reduction. In detail, we combine inundation modeling, urban morphology analysis, population assessment, socioeconomic analysis of the population and evacuation modeling. The interdisciplinary results eventually lead to recommendations for mitigation strategies in the fields of spatial planning or coping capacity. © Author(s) 2009.

An ontology for risk management of digital collections

Maintaining accessibility to and understanding of digital information over time is a complex challenge that often requires contributions and interventions from a variety of individuals and organizations. The processes of preservation planning and evaluation are fundamentally implicit and share similar complexity. Both demand comprehensive knowledge and understanding of every aspect of to-be-preserved content and the contexts within which preservation is undertaken. Consequently, means are required for the identification, documentation and association of those properties of data, representation and management mechanisms that in combination lend value, facilitate interaction and influence the preservation process. These properties may be almost limitless in terms of diversity, but are integral to the establishment of classes of risk exposure, and the planning and deployment of appropriate preservation strategies. We explore several research objectives within the course of this thesis. Our main objective is the conception of an ontology for risk management of digital collections. Incorporated within this are our aims to survey the contexts within which preservation has been undertaken successfully, the development of an appropriate methodology for risk management, the evaluation of existing preservation evaluation approaches and metrics, the structuring of best practice knowledge and lastly the demonstration of a range of tools that utilise our findings. We describe a mixed methodology that uses interview and survey, extensive content analysis, practical case study and iterative software and ontology development. We build on a robust foundation, the development of the Digital Repository Audit Method Based on Risk Assessment. We summarise the extent of the challenge facing the digital preservation community (and by extension users and creators of digital materials from many disciplines and operational contexts) and present the case for a comprehensive and extensible knowledge base of best practice. These challenges are manifested in the scale of data growth, the increasing complexity and the increasing onus on communities with no formal training to offer assurances of data management and sustainability. These collectively imply a challenge that demands an intuitive and adaptable means of evaluating digital preservation efforts. The need for individuals and organisations to validate the legitimacy of their own efforts is particularly prioritised. We introduce our approach, based on risk management. Risk is an expression of the likelihood of a negative outcome, and an expression of the impact of such an occurrence. We describe how risk management may be considered synonymous with preservation activity, a persistent effort to negate the dangers posed to information availability, usability and sustainability. Risk can be characterised according to associated goals, activities, responsibilities and policies in terms of both their manifestation and mitigation. They have the capacity to be deconstructed into their atomic units and responsibility for their resolution delegated appropriately. We continue to describe how the manifestation of risks typically spans an entire organisational environment, and as the focus of our analysis risk safeguards against omissions that may occur when pursuing functional, departmental or role-based assessment. We discuss the importance of relating risk-factors, through the risks themselves or associated system elements. To do so will yield the preservation best-practice knowledge base that is conspicuously lacking within the international digital preservation community. We present as research outcomes an encapsulation of preservation practice (and explicitly defined best practice) as a series of case studies, in turn distilled into atomic, related information elements. We conduct our analyses in the formal evaluation of memory institutions in the UK, US and continental Europe. Furthermore we showcase a series of applications that use the fruits of this research as their intellectual foundation. Finally we document our results in a range of technical reports and conference and journal articles. We present evidence of preservation approaches and infrastructures from a series of case studies conducted in a range of international preservation environments. We then aggregate this into a linked data structure entitled PORRO, an ontology relating preservation repository, object and risk characteristics, intended to support preservation decision making and evaluation. The methodology leading to this ontology is outlined, and lessons are exposed by revisiting legacy studies and exposing the resource and associated applications to evaluation by the digital preservation community.

Genetic Diversity of Oilseed Rape Fields and Feral Populations in the Context of Coexistence with GM Crops

Despite growing concern about transgenes escaping from fields, few studies have analysed the genetic diversity of crops in an agroecosystem over several years. Accurate information about the dynamics and relationship of the genetic diversity of crops in an agroecosystem is essential for risk assessment and policies concerning the containment of genetically modified crops and their coexistence with crops grown by conventional practices. Here, we analysed the genetic diversity of oilseed rape plants from fields and feral populations over 4 years in an agricultural landscape of 41 km2. We used exact compatibility and maximum likelihood assignment methods to assign these plants to cultivars. Even pure lines and hybrid cultivar seed lots contained several genotypes. The cultivar diversity in fields reflected the conventional view of agroecosystems quite well: that is, there was a succession of cultivars, some grown for longer than others because of their good performance, some used for one year and then abandoned, and others gradually adopted. Three types of field emerged: fields sown with a single cultivar, fields sown with two cultivars, and unassigned fields (too many cultivars or unassigned plants to reliably assign the field). Field plant diversity was higher than expected, indicating the persistence of cultivars that were grown for only one year. The cultivar composition of feral populations was similar to that of field plants, with an increasing number of cultivars each year. By using genetic tools, we found a link between the cultivars of field plants in a particular year and the cultivars of feral population plants in the following year. Feral populations on road verges were more diverse than those on path verges. All of these findings are discussed in terms of their consequences in the context of coexistence with genetically modified crops.

Nutritional risk among surgery patients and associations with hospital stay and postoperative complications

Introduction and Objectives: Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS 2002) is employed to identify nutritional risk in the hospital setting and determine which patients would benefit from nutritional support. The aim of the present study was to identify nutritional risk in patients admitted to the surgery ward and determine possible associations with hospital stay and postoperative complications. Methods: Three hundred fifteen surgery patients were evaluated in the first 24 hours since admission. Evaluations involved the calculation of the body mass index, the determination of weight loss ≥ 5% in the previous six months and the assessment of nutritional risk using the NRS 2002. Hospital stay (in days) and postoperative complications were also recorded. Results: A total of 31.1% of the patients were classified as being "at risk", among whom 98.3% had food intake 50% lower than habitual intake, 65.9% had weight loss ≥ 5% in the previous six months, 64.7% had a diagnosis of neoplasm, 59.9% were aged ≥ 60 years and 59.9% were candidates for non-elective surgery. Postoperative complications were recorded in 4.4% of the overall sample and were more frequent in patients at nutritional risk (p < 0.000). Hospital stay was also longer among the patients at nutritional risk (p < 0.01). Conclusion: A high percentage of surgery patients were at nutritional risk in the present study and associations were found with age ≥ 60 years, a diagnosis of neoplasm, non-elective surgery of the gastrointestinal tract, a reduction in habitual food intake and weight loss. Patients at nutritional risk had a greater frequency of postoperative complications and a longer hospital stay.

Effects of dredging operations on sediment quality: contaminant mobilization in dredged sediments from the Port of Santos, SP, Brazil

Background, aim, and scope Contaminated sediments are a worldwide problem, and mobilization of contaminants is one of the most critical issues in environmental risk assessment insofar as dredging projects are concerned. The investigation of how toxic compounds are mobilized during dredging operations in the channel of the Port of Santos, Brazil, was conducted in an attempt to assess changes in the bioavailability and toxicity of these contaminants.Materials and methods Bulk sediment samples and their interstitial waters and elutriates were subjected to chemical evaluation and ecotoxicological assessment. Samples were collected from the channel before dredging, from the dredge's hopper, and from the disposal site and its surroundings.Results The results indicate that the bulk sediments from the dredging site are contaminated moderately with As, Pb, and Zn and severely with Hg, and that polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) concentrations are relatively high. Our results also show a 50% increase in PAH concentrations in suspended solids in the water collected from the hopper dredge. This finding is of great concern, since it refers to the dredge overflow water which is pumped back into the ecosystem. Acute toxicity tests on bulk sediment using the amphipod Tiburonella viscana showed no toxicity, while chronic tests with the sea urchin Lytechinus variegatus showed toxicity in the interstitial waters and elutriates. Results are compared with widely used sediment quality guidelines and with a sediment quality assessment scheme based on various lines of evidence.Conclusions The data presented here indicate that the sediments collected in this port show a certain degree of contamination, especially those from the inner part of the channel. The classification established in this study indicated that sediments from the dredged channel are impacted detrimentally and that sea disposal may disperse contaminants. According to this classification, the sediments are inappropriate for disposal at sea. It should be emphasized that the poor quality of fine sediments discharged from the hopper dredge in the overflow process can recontaminate the environment.Recommendations and perspectives These findings will help to underpin improved planning of management strategies for dredging operations and sediment disposal in Brazil and other countries.

MULTI-UNIT ACCIDENT CONTRIBUTIONS TO U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION QUANTITATIVE HEALTH OBJECTIVES: A SAFETY GOAL POLICY ANALYSIS USING MODELS FROM STATE-OF-THE-ART REACTOR CONSEQUENCE ANALYSES

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission implemented a safety goal policy in response to the 1979 Three Mile Island accident. This policy addresses the question “How safe is safe enough?” by specifying quantitative health objectives (QHOs) for comparison with results from nuclear power plant (NPP) probabilistic risk analyses (PRAs) to determine whether proposed regulatory actions are justified based on potential safety benefit. Lessons learned from recent operating experience—including the 2011 Fukushima accident—indicate that accidents involving multiple units at a shared site can occur with non-negligible frequency. Yet risk contributions from such scenarios are excluded by policy from safety goal evaluations—even for the nearly 60% of U.S. NPP sites that include multiple units. This research develops and applies methods for estimating risk metrics for comparison with safety goal QHOs using models from state-of-the-art consequence analyses to evaluate the effect of including multi-unit accident risk contributions in safety goal evaluations.

Assessing the safety of Pseudomonas putida introduction in the environment: an overview of ecotoxicological tests.

Risk assessment guidelines for the environmental release of microbial agents are performed in a tiered sequence which includes evaluation of exposure effects on non target organisms. However, it becomes important to verify whether environmental risk assessment from temperate studies is applicable to tropical countries, as Brazil. Pseudomonas putida is a bacteria showing potential to be used for environmental applications as bioremediation and plant disease control. This study investigates the effects of this bacteria exposure on rodents and aquatic organisms (Daphnia similes) that are recommended to be used as non-target organism in environmental risk assessments. Also, the microbial activity in three different soils under P. putida exposure was evaluated. Rats did not show clinical alterations, although the agent was recovered 16 h after the exposure in lung homogenates. The bacteria did not reduce significantly the reproduction and survival of D. similis. The soil enzymatic activities presented fluctuating values after inoculation with bacteria. The measurement of perturbations in soil biochemical characteristics is presented as an alternative way of monitoring the overall effects of the microbial agent to be introduced even in first stage (Tier I) of the risk assessment in tropical ecosystems.

Ciblage des délinquants sexuels : regard sur la qualité et la pertinence d'un programme de surveillance en communauté

Les crimes sexuels génèrent beaucoup d’inquiétudes chez la société, particulièrement quand vient le temps de libérer certains délinquants sexuels à risque élevé de récidive. Les évaluations du risque sont ainsi pertinentes puisque la majorité des délinquants sexuels sont libérés suivant une peine d’emprisonnement déterminée (Wilson, Picheca and Prinzo, 2005). Certaines méthodes sont donc mises en place servant à gérer les délinquants sexuels en communauté. Un cadre légal impose certaines conditions de remise en liberté et vise à réduire le risque de récidive (Hanson and Morton-Bourgon, 2005). Toutefois, une fois leur sentence complétée, certains délinquants posent toujours un risque pour la société. Pour répondre à ce problème, des partenariats ont été développés au Québec entre les services correctionnels et policiers. Ils imposent une surveillance accrue des personnes à risque élevé de récidive (PRER). Les décisions qui sont prises peuvent être lourdes de conséquences. Il est donc important d’évaluer si les méthodes de ciblage sont efficaces, soit orientées vers les individus à haut risque de récidive. Les données utilisées dans le cadre de ce mémoire proviennent de deux sources. Premièrement, un échantillon comparatif issu d’une compilation de données comprenant l’ensemble des délinquants sexuels condamnés depuis 20 ans a été utilisé (n = 235). Puis, un registre développé depuis 10 ans regroupant l’ensemble des individus soumis au programme a été analysé (n = 235). Les participants ont été évalués en fonction des variables disponibles de la Statique-99R. L’utilité de l’outil pour la police a été mise en perspective. Le programme ne semble pas n’impliquer que des délinquants sexuels à haut risque de récidive. Les taux de récidive sont relativement bas et similaires dans les deux échantillons. Les services de police ont des données pertinentes qui permettent d’étudier la qualité du ciblage fait dans le cadre du programme. Des évaluations plus fiables pourraient améliorer l’allocation des ressources et les stratégies de ciblage.