Impact numbers: measures of risk factor impact on the whole population from case-control and cohort studies

Objective: To describe new measures of risk from case-control and cohort studies, which are simple to understand and relate to numbers of the population at risk. Design: Theoretical development of new measures of risk. Setting: Review of literature and previously described measures. Main results: The new measures are: (1) the population impact number (PIN), the number of those in the whole population among whom one case is attributable to the exposure or risk factor (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the population attributable risk),- (2) the case impact number (CIN) the number of people with the disease or outcome for whom one case will be attributable to the exposure or risk factor (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the population attributable fraction); (3) the exposure impact number (EIN) the number of people with the exposure among whom one excess case is attributable to the exposure (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the attributable risk); (4) the exposed cases impact number (ECIN) the number of exposed cases among whom one case is attributable to the exposure (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the aetiological fraction). The impact number reflects the number of people in each population (the whole population, the cases, all those exposed, and the exposed cases) among whom one case is attributable to the particular risk factor. Conclusions: These new measures should help communicate the impact on a population, of estimates of risk derived from cohort or case-control studies.

Secondary structure of the third extracellular loop responsible for ligand selectivity of a mammalian gonadotropin-releasing hormone receptor

The extracellular loop 3 (ECL3) of the mammalian gonadotropin-releasing hormone receptor (GnRH-R) contains an acidic amino acid (Glu(301) in the mouse GnRH-R,) that confers agonist selectivity for Are in mammalian GnRH. It is proposed that a specific conformation of ECL3 is necessary to orientate the carboxyl side chain of the acidic residue for interaction with Arg(8) of GnRH, which is supported by decreased affinity for Arg(8) GnRH but not Gln(8) GnRH when an adjacent Pro is mutated to Ala. To probe the structural contribution of the loop domain to the proposed presentation of the carboxyl side chain, we synthesized a model peptide (CGPEMLNRVSEPGC) representing residues 293-302 of mouse ECL3, where Cys and Gly residues are added symmetrically at the N and C termini, respectively, allowing the introduction of a disulfide bridge to simulate the distances at which the ECL3 is tethered to the transmembrane domains 6 and 7 of the receptor. The ability of the ECL3 peptide to bind GnRH with low affinity was demonstrated by its inhibition of GnRH stimulation of inositol phosphate production in cells expressing the GnRH-R. The CD bands of the ECL3 peptides exhibited a superposition of predominantly unordered structure and partial contributions from beta-sheet structure. Likewise, the analysis of the amide I and amide III bands from micro-Raman and FT Raman experiments revealed mainly unordered conformations of the cyclic and of the linear peptide. NMR data demonstrated the presence of a beta-hairpin among an ensemble of largely disordered structures in the cyclic peptide. The location of the turn linking the two strands of the hairpin was assigned to the three central residues L-296, N-297, and R-298. A small population of structured species among an ensemble of predominantly random coil conformation suggests that the unliganded receptor represents a variety of structural conformers, some of which have the potential to make contacts with the ligand. We propose a mechanism of receptor activation whereby binding of the agonist to the inactive receptor state induces and stabilizes a particular structural state of the loop domain, leading to further conformational rearrangements across the transmembrane domain and signal propagating interaction with G proteins. Interaction of the Glu(301) of the receptor with Arg(8) of GnRH induces a folded configuration of the ligand. Our proposal thus suggests that conformational changes of both ligand and receptor result from this interaction.

A technique to assess small-scale heterogeneity of chemical properties in soil aggregates

A new method is presented which allows the separation of the soil aggregate exterior from the aggregate core. The method employs a combination of aggregate freezing with rapid separation of aggregate exteriors using ultrasonic energy. The factors influencing the thickness of the removed aggregate surface layer include water content of the aggregate prior to freezing, temperature difference between that of the frozen aggregate and that of the liquid it is submerged in during sonification, sonification time and energy, and the type of the immersion liquid. The success of the method and the thickness of the removed aggregate surface were examined using barium ( Ba2+) as a tracer. Barium ( as BaCl2) is rapidly absorbed by soil and is present at only very low levels in natural soils. Surface layers of 0.2 - 0.4 cm thickness were successfully removed from aggregates of 1 - 4 cm diameter. Two examples are given from soils in northern NSW to demonstrate the occurrence of small- scale heterogeneity in soil chemical properties. Compared with the surface fraction, a 4 - 7% higher calcium concentration was found in the core fraction of a clay loam soil ( Dermosol). Conversely, on a cracking clay soil ( Vertosol), atrazine concentration was around 15 times greater in the aggregate surface fractions compared with core fractions. Compared with the traditional estimation of soil chemical properties on homogenised bulk soil samples, it is suggested that separate analysis of aggregate surface and core fractions could provide useful additional information on the relationships between soil properties and environmental responses.

The population of Brazil

In 1970 the population of Brazil with 94,508,554 inhabitants was extreme youth, since 42.67% was composed of children under 14 years old. In that year the proportion of female was 50.2%. The population density increased from 1.17 inhabitants /km² in 1872 to 11.18 in 1970, and in this last year the range was 1.03 in the North region and 43.90 in the South-East region. The urban population increased from 31.24% in 1940 to 55.98% in 1970 and for the first time the rural population was smaller than the urban population. In 1950 concerning with marital status 39% of the population 15 years old and over was single and 54% married. In 1970 this rate was respectively 35.4% and 56.6%. The population economically inactive increased from 49.17% in 1940 to 52.24% in 1970. The literacy ratio increased from 43% in 1940, to 48% in 1950 and 68.04% in 1970. The crude birth rate was 43/1000 live births in 1950 and fell to 37.7/1000 in 1970. The fertility rate decreased from 179.3/1000 women (15-49 years old} to 156.7/1000 in 1960/70. The crude death rate decreased from 20.60/1000 inhabitants in 1940/50 to 9.4/1000 in 1960/70. The infant mortality rate still remains high: 171/1000 live births in 1940/50 and 170/1000 in 1971. Concerning with the size of the cities, 8 in 1940 had 100,000 or more inhabitants and in 1970 this number increased to 94 cities. The population growth increased from 2.38% in 1940/50, to 2.99% in 1950/60 and 2.83% in 1960./70. Brazil is the first country in population size in Latin America and the eighth in the world. Concerning his area, Brazil is the fifth country in size.

Evaluation of the respiratory motion effect in small animal PET images with GATE Monte Carlo simulations

The rapid growth in genetics and molecular biology combined with the development of techniques for genetically engineering small animals has led to increased interest in in vivo small animal imaging. Small animal imaging has been applied frequently to the imaging of small animals (mice and rats), which are ubiquitous in modeling human diseases and testing treatments. The use of PET in small animals allows the use of subjects as their own control, reducing the interanimal variability. This allows performing longitudinal studies on the same animal and improves the accuracy of biological models. However, small animal PET still suffers from several limitations. The amounts of radiotracers needed, limited scanner sensitivity, image resolution and image quantification issues, all could clearly benefit from additional research. Because nuclear medicine imaging deals with radioactive decay, the emission of radiation energy through photons and particles alongside with the detection of these quanta and particles in different materials make Monte Carlo method an important simulation tool in both nuclear medicine research and clinical practice. In order to optimize the quantitative use of PET in clinical practice, data- and image-processing methods are also a field of intense interest and development. The evaluation of such methods often relies on the use of simulated data and images since these offer control of the ground truth. Monte Carlo simulations are widely used for PET simulation since they take into account all the random processes involved in PET imaging, from the emission of the positron to the detection of the photons by the detectors. Simulation techniques have become an importance and indispensable complement to a wide range of problems that could not be addressed by experimental or analytical approaches.

Bat rabies in the north-northwestern regions of the state of São Paulo, Brazil: 1997-2002

OBJECTIVE: Reports on bat rabies in Brazil are sporadic and isolated. This study aimed at describing the detection of rabies virus in bats in the state of São Paulo. METHODS: A total of 7,393 bats from 235 municipalities of the north and northwestern areas of the state of São Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, were assessed according to their morphological and morphometric characteristics from 1997 to 2002. Fluorescent antibody test and mice inoculation were used for viral identification. RESULTS: Of all samples examined, 1.3% was rabies virus positive, ranging from 0.2% in 1997 to 1.6% in 2001. There were found 98 bats infected, 87 in the urban area. Fluorescent antibody test was detected in 77 positive samples, whereas 92 produced rabies signs in mice; incubation period ranging from 4 to 23 days. In 43 cities at least one rabid bat was observed. The highest proportion (33.7%) of rabies virus was found in Artibeus lituratus. Eptesicus and Myotis were the most frequent positive species (24.5%) of the Vespertilionidae family. The species Molossus molossus and Molossus rufus showed 14.3% positive bats. There were no differences in the distribution of positive rabies between females (33; 48.5%) and males (35; 51.5%). CONCLUSIONS: Rabies-infected bats were found in environments that pose a risk to both human and domestic animal population and there is a need for actions aiming at the control of these species and public education.

Data analysis model selection for estimating local population size of the Risso’s dolphin (Grampus griseus) in the Azores

27th Annual Conference of the European Cetacean Society. Setúbal, Portugal, 8-10 April 2013.

Role of the wider Azores region as a nursery ground for North Atlantic blue shark (Prionace glauca)

Tese de Doutoramento, Ciências do Mar (Ecologia Marinha)

Spatial analysis of the tuberculosis treatment dropout, Buenos Aires, Argentina

OBJECTIVE Identify spatial distribution patterns of the proportion of nonadherence to tuberculosis treatment and its associated factors.METHODS We conducted an ecological study based on secondary and primary data from municipalities of the metropolitan area of Buenos Aires, Argentina. An exploratory analysis of the characteristics of the area and the distributions of the cases included in the sample (proportion of nonadherence) was also carried out along with a multifactor analysis by linear regression. The variables related to the characteristics of the population, residences and families were analyzed.RESULTS Areas with higher proportion of the population without social security benefits (p = 0.007) and of households with unsatisfied basic needs had a higher risk of nonadherence (p = 0.032). In addition, the proportion of nonadherence was higher in areas with the highest proportion of households with no public transportation within 300 meters (p = 0.070).CONCLUSIONS We found a risk area for the nonadherence to treatment characterized by a population living in poverty, with precarious jobs and difficult access to public transportation.

Impact of long-stay beds on the performance of a tertiary hospital in emergencies

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To assess the impact of implementing long-stay beds for patients of low complexity and high dependency in small hospitals on the performance of an emergency referral tertiary hospital. METHODS For this longitudinal study, we identified hospitals in three municipalities of a regional department of health covered by tertiary care that supplied 10 long-stay beds each. Patients were transferred to hospitals in those municipalities based on a specific protocol. The outcome of transferred patients was obtained by daily monitoring. Confounding factors were adjusted by Cox logistic and semiparametric regression. RESULTS Between September 1, 2013 and September 30, 2014, 97 patients were transferred, 72.1% male, with a mean age of 60.5 years (SD = 1.9), for which 108 transfers were performed. Of these patients, 41.7% died, 33.3% were discharged, 15.7% returned to tertiary care, and only 9.3% tertiary remained hospitalized until the end of the analysis period. We estimated the Charlson comorbidity index – 0 (n = 28 [25.9%]), 1 (n = 31 [56.5%]) and ≥ 2 (n = 19 [17.5%]) – the only variable that increased the chance of death or return to the tertiary hospital (Odds Ratio = 2.4; 95%CI 1.3;4.4). The length of stay in long-stay beds was 4,253 patient days, which would represent 607 patients at the tertiary hospital, considering the average hospital stay of seven days. The tertiary hospital increased the number of patients treated in 50.0% for Intensive Care, 66.0% for Neurology and 9.3% in total. Patients stayed in long-stay beds mainly in the first 30 (50.0%) and 60 (75.0%) days. CONCLUSIONS Implementing long-stay beds increased the number of patients treated in tertiary care, both in general and in system bottleneck areas such as Neurology and Intensive Care. The Charlson index of comorbidity is associated with the chance of patient death or return to tertiary care, even when adjusted for possible confounding factors.

Prevalence of rubella antibodies in a non-immunized urban population, São Paulo, Brazil

The prevalence of rubella antibodies was evaluated through a ramdom Seroepidemiological survey in 1400 blood samples of 2-14 year old children and in 329 samples of umbilical cord serum. Rubella IgG antibodies were detected by ELISA, and the sera were collected in 1987, five years before the mass vaccination campaign with measles-mumps-rubella vaccine carried out in the city of São Paulo in 1992. A significant increase in prevalence of rubella infection was observed after 6 years of age, and 77% of the individuals aged from 15 to 19 years had detectable rubella antibodies. However, the seroprevalence rose to 90.5% (171/189) in cord serum samples from children whose mothers were 20 to 29 years old, and reached 95.6% in newborns of mothers who were 30 to 34 years old, indicating that a large number of women are infected during childbearing years. This study confirms that rubella infection represents an important Public Health problem in São Paulo city. The data on the seroprevalence of rubella antibodies before the mass vaccination campaign reflects the baseline immunological status of this population before any intervention and should be used to design an adequate vaccination strategy and to assess the Seroepidemiological impact of this intervention.

Prevalence of Trypanosoma cruzi and Leishmania chagasi infection and risk factors in a Colombian indigenous population

This study was carried out in order to obtain base-line data concerning the epidemiology of American Visceral Leishmaniasis and Chagas’ Disease in an indigenous population with whom the government is starting a dwelling improvement programme. Information was collected from 242 dwellings (1,440 people), by means of house to house interviews about socio-economic and environmental factors associated with Leishmania chagasi and Trypanosoma cruzi transmission risk. A leishmanin skin test was applied to 385 people and 454 blood samples were collected on filter paper in order to detect L. chagasi antibodies by ELISA and IFAT and T. cruzi antibodies by ELISA. T. cruzi seroprevalence was 8.7% by ELISA, L. chagasi was 4.6% and 5.1% by IFAT and ELISA, respectively. ELISA sensitivity and specificity for L. chagasi antibodies were 57% and 97.5% respectively, as compared to the IFAT. Leishmanin skin test positivity was 19%. L. chagasi infection prevalence, being defined as a positive result in the three-immunodiagnostic tests, was 17.1%. Additionally, 2.7% of the population studied was positive to both L. chagasi and T. cruzi, showing a possible cross-reaction. L. chagasi and T. cruzi seropositivity increased with age, while no association with gender was observed. Age (p<0.007), number of inhabitants (p<0.05), floor material (p<0.03) and recognition of vector (p<0.01) were associated with T. cruzi infection, whilst age ( p<0.007) and dwelling improvement (p<0.02) were associated with L. chagasi infection. It is necessary to evaluate the long-term impact of the dwelling improvement programme on these parasitic infections in this community.

Upper Arm Anthropometry Is Not a Valid Predictor of Regional Body Composition in Preterm Infants

Background: Upper arm anthropometry has been used in the nutritional assessment of small infants, but it has not yet been validated as a predictor of regional body composition in this population. Objective: Validation of measured and derived upper arm anthropometry as a predictor of arm fat and fat-free compartments in preterm infants. Methods: Upper arm anthropometry, including the upper arm cross-sectional areas, was compared individually or in combination with other anthropometric measurements, with the cross-sectional arm areas measured by magnetic resonance imaging, in a cohort of consecutive preterm appropriate-for-gestationalage neonates, just before discharge. Results: Thirty infants born with (mean 8 SD) a gestational age of 30.7 8 1.9 weeks and birth weight of 1,380 8 325 g, were assessed at 35.4 8 1.1 weeks of corrected gestational age, weighing 1,785 8 93 g. None of the anthropometric measurements are reliable predictors (r 2 ! 0.56) of the measurements obtained by magnetic resonance imaging, individually or in combination with other anthropometric measurements. Conclusion: Both measured anthropometry and derived upper arm anthropometry are inaccurate predictors of regional body composition in preterm appropriate-for-gestational-age infants.

Antibody levels to hantavirus in inhabitants of western Santa Catarina State, Brazil

Hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS) is an infectious disease caused by hantaviruses of the family Bunyaviridae, and is transmitted by aerosols of excreta of infected rodents. The aim of the present study was to determine antibody levels to hantavirus in the population that lives at frontier of Brazil and Argentina. Participated of the study 405 individuals living in the municipalities of Bandeirante, Santa Helena, Princesa and Tunapolis, state of Santa Catarina, Brazil. IgG antibodies to hantavirus were analyzed in sera by an ELISA that uses a recombinant N protein of Araraquara hantavirus as antigen. The results were also confirmed by immunofluorescent test. Eight individuals showed antibodies to hantavirus (1.97% positivity), with serum titers ranging from 100 to 800. Six seropositives were males, older than 30 years and farmers. Our results reinforce previous data on hantavirus circulation and human infections in the southern border of Brazil with Argentina.

ASSESSMENT OF THE PRESENCE OF Toxocara EGGS IN SOILS OF AN ARID AREA IN CENTRAL-WESTERN ARGENTINA

With the aim of studying the contamination of soils with eggs of Toxocara spp. in an arid area in the central-western region of Argentina, 76 soil samples were collected from 18 towns belonging to six provinces of central-western Argentina. They were processed by the centrifugal flotation method. No eggs of Toxocara spp. were found. It can be concluded that the negative results are directly related to the characteristics of the environment and climate present in the studied area. The finding of eggs in soils depends on several factors: the presence of canine or feline feces, the hygienic behavior of pet owners, the presence of stray animals without veterinary supervision, the weather and environmental conditions, and laboratory techniques used; and all these circumstances must be considered when comparing the results found in different geographical regions. In order to accurately define the importance of public spaces in the transmission of infection to humans, it is important to consider the role of backyards or green spaces around housing in small towns, where the population is not used to walking pets in public spaces, and in such cases a significant fraction of the population may acquire the infection within households.