Modeling the monetary policy reaction function of the colombian central bank

This paper proposes a simple Ordered Probit model to analyse the monetary policy reaction function of the Colombian Central Bank. There is evidence that the reaction function is asymmetric, in the sense that the Bank increases the Bank rate when the gap between observed inflation and the inflation target (lagged once) is positive, but it does not reduce the Bank rate when the gap is negative. This behaviour suggests that the Bank is more interested in fulfilling the announced inflation target rather than in reducing inflation excessively. The forecasting performance of the model, both within and beyond the estimation period, appears to be particularly good.

Small-area variation in health care affecting the choice of cesarean delivery: the case of a Colombian health insurer

In the midst of health care reform, Colombia has succeeded in increasing health insurance coverage and the quality of health care. In spite of this, efficiency continues to be a matter of concern, and small-area variations in health care are one of the plausible causes of such inefficiencies. In order to understand this issue, we use individual data of all births from a Contributory-Regimen insurer in Colombia. We perform two different specifications of a multilevel logistic regression model. Our results reveal that hospitals account for 20% of variation on the probability of performing cesarean sections. Geographic area only explains 1/3 of the variance attributable to the hospital. Furthermore, some variables from both demand and supply sides are found to be also relevant on the probability of undergoing cesarean sections. This paper contributes to previous research by using a hierarchical model and by defining hospitals as cluster. Moreover, we also include clinical and supply induced demand variables.

An artificial economy based on reinforcement learning and agent based modeling

In this paper, we employ techniques from artificial intelligence such as reinforcement learning and agent based modeling as building blocks of a computational model for an economy based on conventions. First we model the interaction among firms in the private sector. These firms behave in an information environment based on conventions, meaning that a firm is likely to behave as its neighbors if it observes that their actions lead to a good pay off. On the other hand, we propose the use of reinforcement learning as a computational model for the role of the government in the economy, as the agent that determines the fiscal policy, and whose objective is to maximize the growth of the economy. We present the implementation of a simulator of the proposed model based on SWARM, that employs the SARSA(λ) algorithm combined with a multilayer perceptron as the function approximation for the action value function.

Abordajes teóricos en la comprensión de la influencia de los recursos económicos en la actividad física

Estudio cualitativo que analiza los abordajes teóricos utilizados por diferentes autores en la comprensión de la influencia de los recursos económicos en la actividad física desde los modelos de determinantes y determinación social.

Modeling tuition fees in presence of social heterogeneity. 'Como modelar las tasas de matrícula en presencia de la heterogeneidad social'.

Resumen basado en el de la publicación

Teaching large multilevel classes.

Este es un manual diseñado para profesores de clases de niveles múltiples de gran tamaño. Contiene una serie de actividades especialmente creadas para hacer frente a todas las dificultades que surgen en este contexto. Muchas actividades pueden ser utilizadas con éxito también en clases más pequeñas y más homogéneas. Las actividades están seleccionadas según un criterio diferente: cómo despertar el interés de los estudiantes; cómo personalizar e individualizar su trabajo; cómo promover la colaboración; cómo hacer que los estudiantes tomen conciencia de su aprendizaje; cómo lograr una gestión positiva de clase. El autor señala cómo la variedad también puede conducir al desorden y lo importante que es crear y respetar las normas y rutinas, cruciales para la buena gestión de la clase. No se olvida de crear un sentido de pertenencia a un grupo, que es extremadamente importante en las clases grandes, donde los estudiantes tímidos o más débiles podrían sentirse excluidos. El trabajo en grupo se mezcla con el trabajo individual y una vez más el autor demuestra ser comprensivo hacia los sentimientos de los estudiantes, fomenta la individualización y la personalización, junto con actividades de grupo. Las actividades siempre están diseñadas para mantener un equilibrio entre individuo y grupo. El profesor dirige el grupo, mantiene todo bajo control y es el punto de referencia para todos los estudiantes, y al mismo tiempo interactúa con el grupo. De hecho los estudiantes de nivel superior pueden llegar a ser de gran ayuda para los más débiles, creando así una especie de cadena de aprendizaje. Muchas actividades están destinadas a que los estudiantes tomen conciencia de sus estilos de aprendizaje y sean responsables de su propio aprendizaje, y para evaluar su propio progreso.

Multilevel bootstrap analysis with assumptions violated

Resumen tomado de la publicación

Comparing intergroup contact effects on blatant and subtle prejudice in adolescents : a multivariate multilevel model

Resumen tomado de la publicación

Efficient 3D scene modeling and mosaicing

El modelat d'escenes és clau en un gran ventall d'aplicacions que van des de la generació mapes fins a la realitat augmentada. Aquesta tesis presenta una solució completa per a la creació de models 3D amb textura. En primer lloc es presenta un mètode de Structure from Motion seqüencial, a on el model 3D de l'entorn s'actualitza a mesura que s'adquireix nova informació visual. La proposta és més precisa i robusta que l'estat de l'art. També s'ha desenvolupat un mètode online, basat en visual bag-of-words, per a la detecció eficient de llaços. Essent una tècnica completament seqüencial i automàtica, permet la reducció de deriva, millorant la navegació i construcció de mapes. Per tal de construir mapes en àrees extenses, es proposa un algorisme de simplificació de models 3D, orientat a aplicacions online. L'eficiència de les propostes s'ha comparat amb altres mètodes utilitzant diversos conjunts de dades submarines i terrestres.

Signal processing of microstructure profiles: integrating turbulent spatial scales in aquatic ecological modeling

The main objective of this thesis was the integration of microstructure information in synoptic descriptors of turbulence, that reflects the mixing processes. Turbulent patches are intermittent in space and time, but they represent the dominant process for mixing. In this work, the properties of turbulent patches were considered the potential input for integrating the physical microscale measurements. The development of a method for integrating the properties of the turbulent patches required solving three main questions: a) how can we detect the turbulent patches from he microstructure measurements?; b) which are the most relevant properties of the turbulent patches?; and ) once an interval of time has been selected, what kind of synoptic parameters could better reflect the occurrence and properties of the turbulent patches? The answers to these questions were the final specific objectives of this thesis.

Atmospheric downwelling longwave radiation at the surface during cloudless and overcast conditions. Measurements and modeling

Atmospheric downwelling longwave radiation is an important component of the terrestrial energy budget; since it is strongly related with the greenhouse effect, it remarkably affects the climate. In this study, I evaluate the estimation of the downwelling longwave irradiance at the terrestrial surface for cloudless and overcast conditions using a one-dimensional radiative transfer model (RTM), specifically the Santa Barbara DISORT Atmospheric Radiative Transfer (SBDART). The calculations performed by using this model were compared with pyrgeometer measurements at three different European places: Girona (NE of the Iberian Peninsula), Payerne (in the East of Switzerland), and Heselbach (in the Black Forest, Germany). Several studies of sensitivity based on the radiative transfer model have shown that special attention on the input of temperature and water content profiles must be held for cloudless sky conditions; for overcast conditions, similar sensitivity studies have shown that, besides the atmospheric profiles, the cloud base height is very relevant, at least for optically thick clouds. Also, the estimation of DLR in places where radiosoundings are not available is explored, either by using the atmospheric profiles spatially interpolated from the gridded analysis data provided by European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), or by applying a real radiosounding of a nearby site. Calculations have been compared with measurements at all sites. During cloudless sky conditions, when radiosoundings were available, calculations show differences with measurements of -2.7 ± 3.4 Wm-2 (Payerne). While no in situ radiosoundings are available, differences between modeling and measurements were about 0.3 ± 9.4 Wm-2 (Girona). During overcast sky conditions, when in situ radiosoundings and cloud properties (derived from an algorithm that uses spectral infrared and microwave ground based measurements) were available (Black Forest), calculations show differences with measurements of -0.28 ± 2.52 Wm2. When using atmospheric profiles from the ECMWF and fixed values of liquid water path and droplet effective radius (Girona) calculations show differences with measurements of 4.0 ± 2.5 Wm2. For all analyzed sky conditions, it has been confirmed that estimations from radiative transfer modeling are remarkably better than those obtained by simple parameterizations of atmospheric emissivity.

Implementation and application of basis set superposition error-correction schemes to the theoretical modeling of weak intermolecular interactions

This thesis deals with the so-called Basis Set Superposition Error (BSSE) from both a methodological and a practical point of view. The purpose of the present thesis is twofold: (a) to contribute step ahead in the correct characterization of weakly bound complexes and, (b) to shed light the understanding of the actual implications of the basis set extension effects in the ab intio calculations and contribute to the BSSE debate. The existing BSSE-correction procedures are deeply analyzed, compared, validated and, if necessary, improved. A new interpretation of the counterpoise (CP) method is used in order to define counterpoise-corrected descriptions of the molecular complexes. This novel point of view allows for a study of the BSSE-effects not only in the interaction energy but also on the potential energy surface and, in general, in any property derived from the molecular energy and its derivatives A program has been developed for the calculation of CP-corrected geometry optimizations and vibrational frequencies, also using several counterpoise schemes for the case of molecular clusters. The method has also been implemented in Gaussian98 revA10 package. The Chemical Hamiltonian Approach (CHA) methodology has been also implemented at the RHF and UHF levels of theory for an arbitrary number interacting systems using an algorithm based on block-diagonal matrices. Along with the methodological development, the effects of the BSSE on the properties of molecular complexes have been discussed in detail. The CP and CHA methodologies are used for the determination of BSSE-corrected molecular complexes properties related to the Potential Energy Surfaces and molecular wavefunction, respectively. First, the behaviour of both BSSE-correction schemes are systematically compared at different levels of theory and basis sets for a number of hydrogen-bonded complexes. The Complete Basis Set (CBS) limit of both uncorrected and CP-corrected molecular properties like stabilization energies and intermolecular distances has also been determined, showing the capital importance of the BSSE correction. Several controversial topics of the BSSE correction are addressed as well. The application of the counterpoise method is applied to internal rotational barriers. The importance of the nuclear relaxation term is also pointed out. The viability of the CP method for dealing with charged complexes and the BSSE effects on the double-well PES blue-shifted hydrogen bonds is also studied in detail. In the case of the molecular clusters the effect of high-order BSSE effects introduced with the hierarchical counterpoise scheme is also determined. The effect of the BSSE on the electron density-related properties is also addressed. The first-order electron density obtained with the CHA/F and CHA/DFT methodologies was used to assess, both graphically and numerically, the redistribution of the charge density upon BSSE-correction. Several tools like the Atoms in Molecules topologycal analysis, density difference maps, Quantum Molecular Similarity, and Chemical Energy Component Analysis were used to deeply analyze, for the first time, the BSSE effects on the electron density of several hydrogen bonded complexes of increasing size. The indirect effect of the BSSE on intermolecular perturbation theory results is also pointed out It is shown that for a BSSE-free SAPT study of hydrogen fluoride clusters, the use of a counterpoise-corrected PES is essential in order to determine the proper molecular geometry to perform the SAPT analysis.