Pro-poor growth or poverty trap? : estimating intergenerational income mobility in rural Philippines

Using an intergenerational database covering nearly a quarter of a century, we explored the degree of intergenerational income mobility among individuals who had grown up in rural Central Luzon, the Philippines. We found that the intergenerational income elasticity is significantly lower than unity, at roughly 0.23, indicating that the average income growth rate is higher for children born to poorer families. The detailed analysis, however, revealed that its magnitude significantly varies across percentiles in a U-shape. The results provide supporting evidence of multiple equilibria or poverty trap.

Sustainable development goals and Japan -- sustainability overshadows poverty reduction

The Development Cooperation Charter of Japan, which took over the ODA (Official Development Assistance) Charter in February 2015, drives Japan's cooperation towards non-poor countries and non-poverty issues. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) put Japan forward in these directions. As a result, in Japan the focus on global poverty reduction is overshadowed by its national interests and sustainability under the concept of universality, which was a core principle of the SDGs as differentiated from the Millennium Development Goals.

Gobernar la complejidad urbana desde la sostenibilidad. Evaluación del gobierno de la gestión visible utilizando indicadores de gobernanza (Venezuela)

Se evalúa con indicadores de gobernanza urbana la sostenibilidad de las formas de hacer ciudad hibrida compleja del gobierno de la gestión visible (GGV). Argumenta que el GGV hace ciudad para legitimarse por desempeño y fortalecer la gobernanza local, en un contexto de mutaciones múltiples y radicales que tienden a diluir y centralizar el poder local y fractalizar la ciudad, profundizando la segregación sociopolítica-territorial y la ingobernabilidad genética de la ciudad hibrida, poniendo en riesgo el Estado federal descentralizado, el derecho a la ciudad, al gobierno local y la gobernanza urbana y multinivel (hipótesis). La estrategia de evaluación de gobernanza innovadora (EEG+i) diseñada para evaluar la relación entre las formas de hacer ciudad hibrida (variables espaciales) y gobernanza (variable a-espacial) es transversal, multidimensional y se construye desde la complejidad, el análisis de escenarios, formulación de constructos, modelos e indicadores de gobernanza, entretejiendo tres campos de conocimiento, gobierno, ciudad y sostenibilidad, en cuatro fases. La Fase 1, contextualiza la gobernanza en la dramática del siglo XXI. La Fase 2, desarrolla la fundamentación teórico-práctica, nuevos conceptos y un abordaje analítico propio ‘genética territorial’, para analizar y comprehender la complejidad de la ciudad hibrida de países en desarrollo, tejiendo ontogenética territorial y el carácter autopoiético del gen informal. En la Fase 3, se caracterizan las formas de hacer ciudad desde la genética del territorio, se formulan modelos e indicadores de gobernanza con los que se evalúan, aplicando un delphi y cuestionarios, los genes tipológicos-formas de hacer ciudad y validan las conclusiones. En la Fase 4, se correlacionan los resultados de los instrumentos aplicados con la praxis urbana del GGV, durante cuatro periodos de gobierno (1996-2010). Concluyendo que, la estrategia de evaluación comprobó las hipótesis y demostró la correlación transversal y multinivel existente entre, las mutaciones en curso que contradicen el modelo de gobernanza constitucional, el paisaje de gobernanza latinoamericano y venezolano, la praxis de los regímenes híbridos ricos en recursos naturales, las perspectivas de desarrollo globales y se expresa sociopolíticamente en déficit de gobernanza, Estado de derecho y cohesión-capital social y, espaciolocalmente, en la ciudad hibrida dispersa y diluida (compleja) y en el gobierno del poder diluido centralizado. La confrontación de flujos de poder centrípetos y centrífugos en la ciudad profundiza la fragmentación socioespacial y política y el deterioro de la calidad de vida, incrementando las protestas ciudadanas e ingobernabilidad que obstaculiza la superación de la pobreza y gobernanza urbana y multinivel. La evaluación de la praxis urbana del GGV evidenció que la correlación entre gobernanza, la producción de genes formales y la ciudad por iniciativa privada tiende a ser positiva y entre gobernanza, genes y producción de ciudad informal negativa, por el carácter autopoiético-autogobernable del gen informal y de los nuevos gobiernos sublocales que dificulta gobernar en gobernanza. La praxis del GGV es contraria al modelo de gobernanza formulado y la disolución centralizada del gobierno local y de la ciudad hibrida-dispersa es socio-espacial y políticamente insostenible. Se proponen estrategias y tácticas de gobernanza multinivel para recuperar la cohesión social y de planificación de la gestión innovadora (EG [PG] +i) para orquestar, desde el Consejo Local de Gobernanza (CLG) y con la participación de los espacios y gobiernos sublocales, un proyecto de ciudad compartido y sostenible. ABSTRACT The sustainability of the forms of making the hybrid-complex city by the visible management government (VMG) is evaluated using urban governance indicators. Argues that the VMG builds city to legitimate itself by performance and to strengthen local governance in a context of multiple and radical mutations that tend to dilute and centralize local power and fractalize the city, deepening the socio-spatial and political segregation, the genetic ingovernability of the hybrid city and placing the decentralized federal State, the right to city, local government and urban governance at risk (hypothesis). The innovative governance evaluation strategy (GES+i) designed to assess the relationship between the forms of making the hybrid city (spatial variables) and governance (a-spatial variable) is transversal, multidimensional; is constructed from complexity, scenario analysis, the formulation of concepts, models and governance indicators, weaving three fields of knowledge, government, city and sustainability in four phases. Phase 1, contextualizes governance in the dramatic of the twenty-first century. Phase 2, develops the theoretical and practical foundations, new concepts and a proper analytical approach to comprehend the complexity of the hybrid city from developing countries, weaving territorial ontogenetic with the autopiethic character of the informal city gen. In Phase 3, the ways of making city are characterized from the genetics of territory; governance indicators and models are formulated to evaluate, using delphi and questionnaires, the ways of making city and validate the conclusions. In Phase 4, the results of the instruments applied are correlated with the urban praxis of the VMG during the four periods of government analyzed (1996-2010). Concluding that, the evaluation strategy proved the hypothesis and showed the transversal and multilevel correlation between, mutations that contradict the constitutional governance model, the governance landscape of Latinamerica and the country, the praxis of the hybrid regimes rich in natural resources, the perspectives of the glocal economy and expresses socio-politically the governance and rule of law and social capital-cohesion deficit and spatial-temporarily the hybrid disperse and diluted city (complex) and the diluted-centralized local government. The confrontation of flows of power centripetal and centrifugal in the city deepens the socio-spatial and political fragmentation and deterioration of the quality of life, increasing citizens' protests and ingovernability which hinders poverty eradication and, multilevel and urban governance. The evaluation of the VMG urban praxis showed the correlation between governance, the production of formal genes and city by private initiative tended to be positive and, between informal genes-city production and governance negative, due to its autopiethic-self governable character that hinders governance. The urban praxis of the VMG contradicts the formulated governance model and thecentralized dissolution of the local government and hybrid city are socio-spatial and politically unsustainable. Multiscale governance strategies are proposed to recreate social cohesion and a management planning innovative method (EG [PG] + i) to orchestrate, from the Local Governance Council (LGC) and with the participation of sublocal governments and spaces, a shared and sustainable city project.

On the Mahalanobis Distance Classification Criterion for Multidimensional Normal Distributions

Many existing engineering works model the statistical characteristics of the entities under study as normal distributions. These models are eventually used for decision making, requiring in practice the definition of the classification region corresponding to the desired confidence level. Surprisingly enough, however, a great amount of computer vision works using multidimensional normal models leave unspecified or fail to establish correct confidence regions due to misconceptions on the features of Gaussian functions or to wrong analogies with the unidimensional case. The resulting regions incur in deviations that can be unacceptable in high-dimensional models. Here we provide a comprehensive derivation of the optimal confidence regions for multivariate normal distributions of arbitrary dimensionality. To this end, firstly we derive the condition for region optimality of general continuous multidimensional distributions, and then we apply it to the widespread case of the normal probability density function. The obtained results are used to analyze the confidence error incurred by previous works related to vision research, showing that deviations caused by wrong regions may turn into unacceptable as dimensionality increases. To support the theoretical analysis, a quantitative example in the context of moving object detection by means of background modeling is given.

Assessing agriculture-water relationships: a Pan-European multidimensional modelling approach.

This paper aims at developing a simulation framework to jointly assess agricultural and water issues. While the strong linkages between water, food, and the environment call for an integrated and multidisciplinary modelling approach, a complete and consistent modelling system to evaluate food-water relationships in Europe was missing so far. The spatial economic simulation model for agriculture CAPRI, which comprises a set of environmental indicators to assess food-environment interrelations within European regions, has been extended to account for food-water links. This modelling framework enables simulating the potential impact of climate change and water availability on agricultural production at the EU regional level, as well as looking at the sustainable use of water, the implementation of water policies or the integration of water issues in the Common Agricultural Policy

La Planificación de Áreas Mineras en Declive : Una respuesta multidimensional = Planning Declining Mining Areas. A multidimensional response

La actividad minera tiene un gran impacto sobre el territorio, probablemente más que ninguna otra de las actividades humanas, ya que transforma el espacio en todas sus dimensiones: ecológica, ambiental, social y económica. Cuando la reducción de la rentabilidad de la explotación conduce al cierre de ésta, la repercusión sobre su entorno puede llegar a ser brutal. Pero las explotaciones mineras son muy distintas entre ellas y los efectos que su abandono producen sobre el espacio en la que se enclavan pueden ser diversos, por lo que la decisión sobre el futuro de estas áreas no es simple y evidente. Aquí se propone desarrollar una propuesta de clasificación tipológica de las minas y sus regiones con el objetivo de determinar las estrategias de intervención más adecuadas para el futuro de estos espacios y sus habitantes. En concreto se busca diferenciar los conceptos de Mina, Parque Minero, Espacio Minero y Región Minera, todos ellos fruto de la interacción de la huella de la actividad minera con el medio físico, los enclaves urbanizados, y la estructura socioeconómica de la región en la que se enclavan. Mining activity is having a great impact on the territory, probably more than any other human activity, which transforms the space in all of its dimensions, ecological, environmental, social and economic. When reducing the profitability of the operation leads to the conclusion thereof, the impact on the environment can be brutal. But mining are very different between them and the effects they produce on their abandonment in space that interlock can be diverse, so the decision on the future of these areas is not simple and obvious. This proposal aims to develop a typological classification of mines and their regions in order to determine the most appropriate intervention strategies for the future of these spaces and their inhabitants. Specifically, it seeks to differentiate the concepts of Mine, Mining Park, Space Miner and Mining Region, all the result of the interaction of the mining footprint with the physical environment, the urbanized enclaves, and the socio-economic structure of the region which interlock. El presente libro reúne las ponencias presentadas por los investigadores de la red REUSE dentro del 1er Simposio de Reutilización del Espacio Minero; evento organizado por la Universidad Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG) en Belo Horizonte, entre el 1 y el 3 de octubre de 2012, en el marco del 1er Seminario Internacional de Reconversión de Territorios. La red REUSE es una red realizada gracias a la financiación del programa CYTED

Joint assessment of water and agricultural policies: a Pan-European multidimensional modelling approach.

Sustainability and the food-water-environment nexus. Food-water linkages in global agro-economic models. The CAPRI water module. Potential to jointly assess food and water policies. Pilot case study. Further development.

Multidimensional, multislaces, and multiscale MRI for quality evaluation in food.

InsideFood explicitly aims at measuring food microstructure, the spatial distribution of food components within foods, with state of the art tomographic, spectroscopic and texture measurement techniques including X-ray micro-and nano CT, MRI,OCT, NMR, TRS and SRS, and acoustic emission. Nutritional quality (sugar and gluten free cereal products), sensory quality (texture of all foods) and safety (foreign material detection in cereal products) are considered. Online and inline techniques including NMR, MRI, TRS, SRS and X-ray imaging to visualise and monitor structure will be developed.

Towards a fuel poverty definition for Spain

During the last years, an increasing interest has been developed so as to address the problem of fuel poverty which is already affecting a huge number of European citizens. In 2013, the European Parliament has claimed to the Commission and State Members through several resolutions, the legislative development of policies in order to tackle energy vulnerability of households. In 2000 the UK Government, through the Warm Homes and Energy Conservation Act, established that a person could be regarded as fuel poor if he is a member of a household that cannot get warmth at a reasonable cost. Nevertheless, in order to establish the incidence of fuel poverty among Spanish households, it must be understood which should be the adequate thresholds for indoor temperatures. The research here presented proposes new indoor temperature thresholds for fuel poor households based on adaptive comfort models.

Fuel poverty as a determinant in energy retrofitting actions

Fuel poverty can be defined as “the inability to afford adequate warmth in the home" and it is the result of the combination of three items: low household income, housing lack of energy efficiency and high energy bills. Although it affects a growing number of households within the European Union only some countries have an official definition for it. In 2013, the European Parliament claimed the Commission and Estate Members to develop different policies in order to fight household energy vulnerability. The importance of tackling fuel poverty is based on the critical consequences it has for human health living below certain temperatures. In Spain some advances have been made in this field but main existing studies remain at the statistical level and do not deepen the understanding of the problem from the perspective of dwelling indoor habitability conditions. What is more, this concept is yet to be officially defined. This paper presents the evaluation of fuel poverty in a building block of social housing located in the centre of Zaragoza and how this issue determined the strategies implemented in the energy retrofitting intervention project. At a first step, fuel poverty was appraised through the exploration of indoor thermal conditions. The adaptive thermal comfort (UNE-EN 15251:2008) method was used to establish the appropriate indoor temperatures and consequently to determine what can be called 'comfort gap'. Results were collated and verified with energy bills collection and a survey work that gathered data from neighbours. All this permitted pointing out those households more in need. Results from the social analysis combined with the evaluation of the building thermal performance determined the intervention. The renovation project was aimed at the implementation of passive strategies that improve households thermal comfort in order to alleviate households fuel poverty situation. This research is part of the project NewSolutions4OldHousing (LIFE10 ENV/ES/439) cofounded by the European Commission under the LIFE+ Programme.

Optimization of multidimensional cross-section tables for few-group core calculations

Multigroup diffusion codes for three dimensional LWR core analysis use as input data pre-generated homogenized few group cross sections and discontinuity factors for certain combinations of state variables, such as temperatures or densities. The simplest way of compiling those data are tabulated libraries, where a grid covering the domain of state variables is defined and the homogenized cross sections are computed at the grid points. Then, during the core calculation, an interpolation algorithm is used to compute the cross sections from the table values. Since interpolation errors depend on the distance between the grid points, a determined refinement of the mesh is required to reach a target accuracy, which could lead to large data storage volume and a large number of lattice transport calculations. In this paper, a simple and effective procedure to optimize the distribution of grid points for tabulated libraries is presented. Optimality is considered in the sense of building a non-uniform point distribution with the minimum number of grid points for each state variable satisfying a given target accuracy in k-effective. The procedure consists of determining the sensitivity coefficients of k-effective to cross sections using perturbation theory; and estimating the interpolation errors committed with different mesh steps for each state variable. These results allow evaluating the influence of interpolation errors of each cross section on k-effective for any combination of state variables, and estimating the optimal distance between grid points.

MedVir: an interactive representation system of multidimensional medical data applied to Traumatic Brain Injury's rehabilitation prediction

Clinicians could model the brain injury of a patient through his brain activity. However, how this model is defined and how it changes when the patient is recovering are questions yet unanswered. In this paper, the use of MedVir framework is proposed with the aim of answering these questions. Based on complex data mining techniques, this provides not only the differentiation between TBI patients and control subjects (with a 72% of accuracy using 0.632 Bootstrap validation), but also the ability to detect whether a patient may recover or not, and all of that in a quick and easy way through a visualization technique which allows interaction.

A multi-scale analysis of transforming agricultural markets in the context of globalization: implications for natural resources, food prices and rural poverty in Latin America

Vivimos una época en la que el mundo se transforma aceleradamente. La globalización está siguiendo un curso imparable, la población mundial así como la población urbana siguen creciendo, y en los países emergentes los ingresos promedios aumentan, resultando en un cambio también acelerado de las dietas y hábitos alimentarios. En conjunto esos factores están causando un aumento fundamental de la demanda de alimentos. Junto con la apertura de los mercados agrícolas, estos procesos han provocado un crecimiento del comercio internacional de alimentos durante la última década. Dado que muchos países de América Latina están dotados de abundancia de recursos naturales, estas tendencias han producido un crecimiento rápido de las exportaciones de bienes primarios desde América Latina al resto del mundo. En sólo 30 años la participación en el mercado agrícola de América Latina casi se ha duplicado, desde 10% en 1980 a 18% en 2010. Este aumento del comercio agrícola ha dado lugar a un debate sobre una serie de cuestiones cruciales relacionadas con los impactos del comercio en la seguridad alimentaria mundial, en el medio ambiente o en la reducción de la pobreza rural en países en desarrollo. Esta tesis aplica un marco integrado para analizar varios impactos relacionados con la transformación de los mercados agrícolas y los mercados rurales debidos a la globalización y, en particular, al progresivo aumento del comercio internacional. En concreto, la tesis aborda los siguientes temas: En primer lugar, la producción mundial de alimentos tendrá que aumentar considerablemente para poder satisfacer la demanda de una población mundial de 9000 millones personas en 2050, lo cual plantea grandes desafíos sobre los sistemas de la producción de alimentos. Alcanzar este logro, sin comprometer la integridad del medio ambiente en regiones exportadoras, es un reto aún mayor. En este contexto, la tesis analiza los efectos de la liberalización del comercio mundial, considerando distintas tecnologías de producción agraria, sobre unos indicadores de seguridad alimentaria en diferentes regiones del mundo y sobre distintos indicadores ambientales, teniendo en cuenta escalas diferentes en América Latina y el Caribe. La tesis utiliza el modelo “International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)” – un modelo dinámico de equilibrio parcial del sector agrícola a escala global – para modelar la apertura de los mercados agrícolas así como diferentes escenarios de la producción hasta el año 2050. Los resultados del modelo están vinculados a modelos biofísicos para poder evaluar los cambios en la huella hídrica y la calidad del agua, así como para cuantificar los impactos del cambio en el uso del suelo sobre la biodiversidad y los stocks de carbono en 2050. Los resultados indican que la apertura de los mercados agrícolas es muy importante para mejorar la seguridad alimentaria a nivel mundial, sin embargo, produce también presiones ambientales indeseables en algunas regiones de América Latina. Contrastando dos escenarios que consideran distintas modos de producción, la expansión de la tierra agrícola frente a un escenario de la producción más intensiva, se demuestra que las mejoras de productividad son generalmente superiores a la expansión de las tierras agrícolas, desde un punto de vista económico e ambiental. En cambio, los escenarios de intensificación sostenible no sólo hacen posible una mayor producción de alimentos, sino que también generan menos impactos medioambientales que los otros escenarios futuros en todas sus dimensiones: biodiversidad, carbono, emisiones de nitratos y uso del agua. El análisis muestra que hay un “trade-off” entre el objetivo de alcanzar la sostenibilidad ambiental y el objetivo de la seguridad alimentaria, independiente del manejo agrícola en el futuro. En segundo lugar, a la luz de la reciente crisis de los precios de alimentos en los años 2007/08, la tesis analiza los impactos de la apertura de los mercados agrícolas en la transmisión de precios de los alimentos en seis países de América Latina: Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, México y el Perú. Para identificar las posibles relaciones de cointegración entre los índices de precios al consumidor de alimentos y los índices de precios de agrarios internacionales, sujetos a diferentes grados de apertura de mercados agrícolas en los seis países de América Latina, se utiliza un modelo simple de corrección de error (single equation error correction). Los resultados indican que la integración global de los mercados agrícolas ha dado lugar a diferentes tasas de transmisión de precios en los países investigados. Sobre todo en el corto plazo, las tasas de transmisión dependen del grado de apertura comercial, mientras que en el largo plazo las tasas de transmisión son elevadas, pero en gran medida independientes del régimen de comercio. Por lo tanto, durante un período de shocks de precios mundiales una mayor apertura del comercio trae consigo más inestabilidad de los precios domésticos a corto plazo y la resultante persistencia en el largo plazo. Sin embargo, estos resultados no verifican necesariamente la utilidad de las políticas comerciales, aplicadas frecuentemente por los gobiernos para amortiguar los shocks de precios. Primero, porque existe un riesgo considerable de volatilidad de los precios debido a cambios bruscos de la oferta nacional si se promueve la autosuficiencia en el país; y segundo, la política de proteccionismo asume el riesgo de excluir el país de participar en las cadenas de suministro de alto valor del sector agrícola, y por lo tanto esa política podría obstaculizar el desarrollo económico. Sin embargo, es indispensable establecer políticas efectivas para reducir la vulnerabilidad de los hogares a los aumentos repentinos de precios de alimentos, lo cual requiere una planificación gubernamental precisa con el presupuesto requerido disponible. En tercer lugar, la globalización afecta a la estructura de una economía y, por medios distintos, la distribución de los ingreso en un país. Perú sirve como ejemplo para investigar más profundamente las cuestiones relacionadas con los cambios en la distribución de los ingresos en zonas rurales. Perú, que es un país que está cada vez más integrado en los mercados mundiales, consiguió importantes descensos en la pobreza extrema en sus zonas rurales, pero a la vez adolece de alta incidencia de pobreza moderada y de desigualdad de los ingresos en zonas rural al menos durante el periodo comprendido entre 2004 y 2012. Esta parte de la tesis tiene como objetivo identificar las fuerzas impulsoras detrás de estas dinámicas en el Perú mediante el uso de un modelo de microsimulación basado en modelos de generación de ingresos aplicado a nivel los hogares rurales. Los resultados indican que la fuerza principal detrás de la reducción de la pobreza ha sido el crecimiento económico general de la economía, debido a las condiciones macroeconómicas favorables durante el periodo de estudio. Estos efectos de crecimiento beneficiaron a casi todos los sectores rurales, y dieron lugar a la disminución de la pobreza rural extrema, especialmente entre los agricultores de papas y de maíz. En parte, estos agricultores probablemente se beneficiaron de la apertura de los mercados agrícolas, que es lo que podría haber provocado un aumento de los precios al productor en tiempos de altos precios mundiales de los alimentos. Sin embargo, los resultados también sugieren que para una gran parte de la población más pobre existían barreras de entrada a la hora de poder participar en el empleo asalariado fuera de la agricultura o en la producción de cultivos de alto valor. Esto podría explicarse por la falta de acceso a unos activos importantes: por ejemplo, el nivel de educación de los pobres era apenas mejor en 2012 que en 2004; y también las dotaciones de tierra y de mano de obra, sobre todo de los productores pobres de maíz y patata, disminuyeron entre 2004 y 2012. Esto lleva a la conclusión de que aún hay margen para aplicar políticas para facilitar el acceso a estos activos, que podría contribuir a la erradicación de la pobreza rural. La tesis concluye que el comercio agrícola puede ser un importante medio para abastecer una población mundial creciente y más rica con una cantidad suficiente de calorías. Para evitar adversos efectos ambientales e impactos negativos para los consumidores y de los productores pobres, el enfoque debe centrarse en las mejoras de la productividad agrícola, teniendo en cuenta los límites ambientales y ser socialmente inclusivo. En este sentido, será indispensable seguir desarrollando soluciones tecnológicas que garanticen prácticas de producción agrícola minimizando el uso de recursos naturales. Además, para los pequeños pobres agricultores será fundamental eliminar las barreras de entrada a los mercados de exportación que podría tener efectos indirectos favorables a través de la adopción de nuevas tecnologías alcanzables a través de mercados internacionales. ABSTRACT The world is in a state of rapid transition. Ongoing globalization, population growth, rising living standards and increasing urbanization, accompanied by changing dietary patterns throughout the world, are increasing the demand for food. Together with more open trade regimes, this has triggered growing international agricultural trade during the last decade. For many Latin American countries, which are gifted with relative natural resource abundance, these trends have fueled rapid export growth of primary goods. In just 30 years, the Latin American agricultural market share has almost doubled from 10% in 1980 to 18% in 2010. These market developments have given rise to a debate around a number of crucial issues related to the role of agricultural trade for global food security, for the environment or for poverty reduction in developing countries. This thesis uses an integrated framework to analyze a broad array of possible impacts related to transforming agricultural and rural markets in light of globalization, and in particular of increasing trade activity. Specifically, the following issues are approached: First, global food production will have to rise substantially by the year 2050 to meet effective demand of a nine billion people world population which poses major challenges to food production systems. Doing so without compromising environmental integrity in exporting regions is an even greater challenge. In this context, the thesis explores the effects of future global trade liberalization on food security indicators in different world regions and on a variety of environmental indicators at different scales in Latin America and the Caribbean, in due consideration of different future agricultural production practices. The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) –a global dynamic partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)– is applied to run different future production scenarios, and agricultural trade regimes out to 2050. Model results are linked to biophysical models, used to assess changes in water footprints and water quality, as well as impacts on biodiversity and carbon stocks from land use change by 2050. Results indicate that further trade liberalization is crucial for improving food security globally, but that it would also lead to more environmental pressures in some regions across Latin America. Contrasting land expansion versus more intensified agriculture shows that productivity improvements are generally superior to agricultural land expansion, from an economic and environmental point of view. Most promising for achieving food security and environmental goals, in equal measure, is the sustainable intensification scenario. However, the analysis shows that there are trade-offs between environmental and food security goals for all agricultural development paths. Second, in light of the recent food price crisis of 2007/08, the thesis looks at the impacts of increasing agricultural market integration on food price transmission from global to domestic markets in six Latin American countries, namely Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. To identify possible cointegrating relationships between the domestic food consumer price indices and world food price levels, subject to different degrees of agricultural market integration in the six Latin American countries, a single equation error correction model is used. Results suggest that global agricultural market integration has led to different levels of price path-through in the studied countries. Especially in the short-run, transmission rates depend on the degree of trade openness, while in the long-run transmission rates are high, but largely independent of the country-specific trade regime. Hence, under world price shocks more trade openness brings with it more price instability in the short-term and the resulting persistence in the long-term. However, these findings do not necessarily verify the usefulness of trade policies, often applied by governments to buffer such price shocks. First, because there is a considerable risk of price volatility due to domestic supply shocks if self-sufficiency is promoted. Second, protectionism bears the risk of excluding a country from participating in beneficial high-value agricultural supply chains, thereby hampering economic development. Nevertheless, to reduce households’ vulnerability to sudden and large increases of food prices, effective policies to buffer food price shocks should be put in place, but must be carefully planned with the required budget readily available. Third, globalization affects the structure of an economy and, by different means, the distribution of income in a country. Peru serves as an example to dive deeper into questions related to changes in the income distribution in rural areas. Peru, a country being increasingly integrated into global food markets, experienced large drops in extreme rural poverty, but persistently high rates of moderate rural poverty and rural income inequality between 2004 and 2012. The thesis aims at disentangling the driving forces behind these dynamics by using a microsimulation model based on rural household income generation models. Results provide evidence that the main force behind poverty reduction was overall economic growth of the economy due to generally favorable macroeconomic market conditions. These growth effects benefited almost all rural sectors, and led to declines in extreme rural poverty, especially among potato and maize farmers. In part, these farmers probably benefited from policy changes towards more open trade regimes and the resulting higher producer prices in times of elevated global food price levels. However, the results also suggest that entry barriers existed for the poorer part of the population to participate in well-paid wage-employment outside of agriculture or in high-value crop production. This could be explained by a lack of sufficient access to important rural assets. For example, poor people’s educational attainment was hardly better in 2012 than in 2004. Also land and labor endowments, especially of (poor) maize and potato growers, rather decreased than increased over time. This leads to the conclusion that there is still scope for policy action to facilitate access to these assets, which could contribute to the eradication of rural poverty. The thesis concludes that agricultural trade can be one important means to provide a growing and richer world population with sufficient amounts of calories. To avoid adverse environmental effects and negative impacts for poor food consumers and producers, the focus should lie on agricultural productivity improvements, considering environmental limits and be socially inclusive. In this sense, it will be crucial to further develop technological solutions that guarantee resource-sparing agricultural production practices, and to remove entry barriers for small poor farmers to export markets which might allow for technological spill-over effects from high-value global agricultural supply chains.

Fuel poverty analysis in three spanish autonomous regions. Some retrofitting policy considerations

A person is to be regarded as living ‘in fuel poverty’ if he is a member of a household living on a lower income in a home which cannot be kept warm at a reasonable cost. This situation is mainly triggered by three factors: low household income, lack of energy efficiency and high energy invoices. Some European countries have already made some advantages towards officially defining fuel poverty in their countries. Nevertheless, in Spain only some research has been done and an official definition of the term is yet to come. This research explores the relation among households’ income, energy expenditure and housing stock in three autonomous regions in Spain in order to evaluate the housing stock of the fuel poor as well as to identify those households more in need. The results of the research allow establishing energy retrofitting priorities of existing housing stock as well as identifying current retrofitting policies limitations on order to tackle fuel poverty.