940 resultados para Multi-cicle, Expectation, and Conditional Estimation Method
Resumo:
The network revenue management (RM) problem arises in airline, hotel, media,and other industries where the sale products use multiple resources. It can be formulatedas a stochastic dynamic program but the dynamic program is computationallyintractable because of an exponentially large state space, and a number of heuristicshave been proposed to approximate it. Notable amongst these -both for their revenueperformance, as well as their theoretically sound basis- are approximate dynamic programmingmethods that approximate the value function by basis functions (both affinefunctions as well as piecewise-linear functions have been proposed for network RM)and decomposition methods that relax the constraints of the dynamic program to solvesimpler dynamic programs (such as the Lagrangian relaxation methods). In this paperwe show that these two seemingly distinct approaches coincide for the network RMdynamic program, i.e., the piecewise-linear approximation method and the Lagrangianrelaxation method are one and the same.
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We study a novel class of noisy rational expectations equilibria in markets with largenumber of agents. We show that, as long as noise increases with the number of agents inthe economy, the limiting competitive equilibrium is well-defined and leads to non-trivialinformation acquisition, perfect information aggregation, and partially revealing prices,even if per capita noise tends to zero. We find that in such equilibrium risk sharing and price revelation play dierent roles than in the standard limiting economy in which per capita noise is not negligible. We apply our model to study information sales by a monopolist, information acquisition in multi-asset markets, and derivatives trading. Thelimiting equilibria are shown to be perfectly competitive, even when a strategic solutionconcept is used.
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Peripheral venous cannulation is the preferred method of inserting central venous silastic catheters in premature infants. The standard techniques are placement of the catheter using a breakaway introducer needle or introduction of the catheter through a cannula. In extremely low birth weight infants (<1000 g) successful cannulation is impeded by the small size of the vessels. After repeated attempts, both procedures can be time-consuming and stressful to the infant. We present a modified insertion technique of the standard 2-French silastic catheter with an increased success rate, thus reducing insertion time, stress to the infant, and costs. The method uses the tip of a 20-gauge cannula as dilator/introducer for the 2-French catheter. This tip is inserted into the vessel with a standard 24-gauge cannula. After successful insertion of the dilator/introducer cannula, the standard 2-French catheter can then be advanced easily.
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We propose a new econometric estimation method for analyzing the probabilityof leaving unemployment using uncompleted spells from repeated cross-sectiondata, which can be especially useful when panel data are not available. Theproposed method-of-moments-based estimator has two important features:(1) it estimates the exit probability at the individual level and(2) it does not rely on the stationarity assumption of the inflowcomposition. We illustrate and gauge the performance of the proposedestimator using the Spanish Labor Force Survey data, and analyze the changesin distribution of unemployment between the 1980s and 1990s during a periodof labor market reform. We find that the relative probability of leavingunemployment of the short-term unemployed versus the long-term unemployedbecomes significantly higher in the 1990s.
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Many political economic theories use and emphasize the process of votingin their explanation of the growth of Social Security, governmentspending, and other public policies. But is there an empirical connectionbetween democracy and Social Security program size or design? Using somenew international data sets to produce both country-panel econometricestimates as well as case studies of South American and southern Europeancountries, we find that Social Security policy varies according toeconomic and demographic factors, but that very different politicalhistories can result in the same Social Security policy. We find littlepartial effect of democracy on the size of Social Security budgets, onhow those budgets are allocated, or how economic and demographic factorsaffect Social Security. If there is any observed difference, democraciesspend a little less of their GDP on Social Security, grow their budgetsa bit more slowly, and cap their payroll tax more often, than doeconomically and demographically similar nondemocracies. Democracies andnondemocracies are equally likely to have benefit formulas inducingretirement and, conditional on GDP per capita, equally likely to induceretirement with a retirement test vs. an earnings test.
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A new debate over the speed of convergence in per capita income across economies is going on. Cross sectional estimates support the idea of slow convergence of about two percent per year. Panel data estimates support the idea of fast convergence of five, ten or even twenty percent per year. This paper shows that, if you ``do it right'', even the panel data estimation method yields the result of slow convergence of about two percent per year.
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We consider two fundamental properties in the analysis of two-way tables of positive data: the principle of distributional equivalence, one of the cornerstones of correspondence analysis of contingency tables, and the principle of subcompositional coherence, which forms the basis of compositional data analysis. For an analysis to be subcompositionally coherent, it suffices to analyse the ratios of the data values. The usual approach to dimension reduction in compositional data analysis is to perform principal component analysis on the logarithms of ratios, but this method does not obey the principle of distributional equivalence. We show that by introducing weights for the rows and columns, the method achieves this desirable property. This weighted log-ratio analysis is theoretically equivalent to spectral mapping , a multivariate method developed almost 30 years ago for displaying ratio-scale data from biological activity spectra. The close relationship between spectral mapping and correspondence analysis is also explained, as well as their connection with association modelling. The weighted log-ratio methodology is applied here to frequency data in linguistics and to chemical compositional data in archaeology.
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PURPOSE: To assess the usefulness of electron microscopy of the aqueous cells when confronted with the clinical association of rhegmatogenous retinal detachment after trauma, high intraocular pressure (IOP) and aqueous cells. METHOD: We report a clinical history of a 50-years-old man who had ocular trauma with perforation in 1944, intraocular lens for traumatic cataract in 1988, Yag capsulotomy in 1993 and retinal detachment with oral dialysis, high IOP and aqueous cells in anterior chamber in 1995. During the surgical therapy we performed an anterior chamber puncture to analyse the aqueous cells. An electron microscopic study was performed on 0.2 ml of aqueous humor mixed in the same volume of 2.5% glutaraldehyde and fixed with 1% osmium acid. RESULTS: Electron microscopic ultrastructural study of the aqueous cells showed numerous photoreceptor outer segments, some of them appearing degenerated. CONCLUSION: The combination of rhegmatogenous retinal detachment with tears near the ora serrata, high IOP and aqueous cells in the anterior chamber should lead the physician to do an anterior chamber puncture and analyse the aqueous cells structure. The combination of those three clinical signs associated with the photoreceptor outer segments in the anterior chamber allowed to diagnose the Schwartz-Matsuo syndrome.
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There is evidence showing that individual behavior often deviates fromthe classical principle of maximization. This evidence raises at least two importantquestions: (i) how severe the deviations are and (ii) which method is the best forextracting relevant information from choice behavior for the purposes of welfare analysis.In this paper we address these two questions by identifying from a foundationalanalysis a new measure of the rationality of individuals that enables the analysis ofindividual welfare in potentially inconsistent subjects, all based on standard revealedpreference data. We call such measure minimal index.
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BACKGROUND: Little is known about smoking, unhealthy use of alcohol, and risk behaviours for sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) in immigrants from developed and developing countries. METHOD: We performed a cross-sectional study of 400 patients who consulted an academic emergency care centre at a Swiss university hospital. The odds ratios for having one or more risk behaviours were adjusted for age, gender, and education level. RESULTS: Immigrants from developing countries were less likely to use alcohol in an unhealthy manner (OR = 0.35, 95% CI 0.22-0.57) or practise risk behaviours for STDs (OR = 0.31, 95% CI 0.13-0.74). They were also less likely to have any of the three studied risk behaviours (OR = 2.5, 95% CI 1.5-4.3). DISCUSSION: In addition to the usual determinants, health behaviours are also associated with origin; distinguishing between immigrants from developing and developed countries is useful in clinical settings. Surprisingly, patients from developing countries tend to possess several protective characteristics.
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The aim of this paper is twofold: firstly, to carry out a theoreticalreview of the most recent stated preference techniques used foreliciting consumers preferences and, secondly, to compare the empiricalresults of two dierent stated preference discrete choice approaches.They dier in the measurement scale for the dependent variable and,therefore, in the estimation method, despite both using a multinomiallogit. One of the approaches uses a complete ranking of full-profiles(contingent ranking), that is, individuals must rank a set ofalternatives from the most to the least preferred, and the other usesa first-choice rule in which individuals must select the most preferredoption from a choice set (choice experiment). From the results werealize how important the measurement scale for the dependent variablebecomes and, to what extent, procedure invariance is satisfied.
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We construct a weighted Euclidean distance that approximates any distance or dissimilarity measure between individuals that is based on a rectangular cases-by-variables data matrix. In contrast to regular multidimensional scaling methods for dissimilarity data, the method leads to biplots of individuals and variables while preserving all the good properties of dimension-reduction methods that are based on the singular-value decomposition. The main benefits are the decomposition of variance into components along principal axes, which provide the numerical diagnostics known as contributions, and the estimation of nonnegative weights for each variable. The idea is inspired by the distance functions used in correspondence analysis and in principal component analysis of standardized data, where the normalizations inherent in the distances can be considered as differential weighting of the variables. In weighted Euclidean biplots we allow these weights to be unknown parameters, which are estimated from the data to maximize the fit to the chosen distances or dissimilarities. These weights are estimated using a majorization algorithm. Once this extra weight-estimation step is accomplished, the procedure follows the classical path in decomposing the matrix and displaying its rows and columns in biplots.
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Comparative abundance and diversity of Dryininae (Hymenoptera, Dryinidae) in three savannah phytophysiognomies in southeastern Brazil, under three sampling methods. This study aimed to assess the abundance and diversity of Dryininae in riparian vegetation, Brazilian savannah, and savannah woodland vegetation at the Estação Ecológica de Jataí, in Luiz Antônio, State of São Paulo, Brazil, by using Moericke, Malaise, and light traps. The sampling was carried out from December 2006 to November 2009, and 371 specimens of Dryininae were caught, with the highest frequencies in spring and summer. Fourteen species of Dryinus Latreille, 1804 and one of Thaumatodryinus Perkins, 1905 were identified. The highest frequencies of Dryinus in the riparian vegetation differed significantly from those obtained in the Brazilian savannah and savannah woodland vegetation. In the riparian vegetation, the highest number of Dryinus was collected using light traps and the interactions between abundance and the collection method used were significant. The number of specimens of Dryinus collected in the Brazilian savannah and savannah woodland vegetation using Malaise traps did not differ significantly from those obtained using Moericke traps. Males significantly outnumbered females in the sex ratio of Dryinus. The species diversity of Dryinus based on females collected using Malaise traps was high in the Brazilian savannah. Furthermore, high species richness of female Dryinus was observed in riparian vegetation (six species) and Brazilian savannah (five). The light trap was the most successful method for sampling diversity of Dryininae.
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The aim of this work was the use of NIR technology by direct application of a fiber optic probe on back fat to analyze the fatty acid composition of CLA fed boars and gilts. 265 animals were fed 3 different diets and the fatty acid profile of back fat from Gluteus medius was analyzed using gas chromatography and FT-NIR. Spectra were acquired using a Bruker Optics Matrix-F duplex spectrometer equipped with a fiber optic probe (IN-268-2). Oleic and stearic fatty acids were predicted accurately; myristic, vaccenic and linoleic fatty acids were predicted with lower accuracy, while palmitic and α-linolenic fatty acids were poorly predicted. The relative percentage of fatty acids and NIR spectra showed differences in fatty acid composition of back fat from pigs fed CLA which increased the relative percentage of SFA and PUFA while MUFA decreased. Results suggest that a NIR fiber optic probe can be used to predict total saturated and unsaturated fatty acid composition, as well as the percentage of stearic and oleic. NIR showed potential as a rapid and easily implemented method to discriminate carcasses from animals fed different diets.
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BACKGROUND: Efavirenz (EFV) causes neuropsychiatric side-effects and an unfavourable blood lipid profile. We investigated the effect of replacing EFV with etravirine (ETR) on patient preference, sleep, anxiety and lipid levels. METHOD: Study participants did not complain of side-effects, had tolerated EFV for at least 3 months, with less than 50 copies/ml HIV-RNA. After randomization, the ETR-first group started with ETR (400 mg daily) [DOSAGE ERROR CORRECTED] with EFV-placebo and the EFV-first group with EFV with ETR-placebo. After 6 weeks, both groups switched to the alternate regimen. Nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors were continued without any change. The primary end point was patient preference for the first or the second regimen, assessed after 12 weeks. RESULTS: Fifty-eight patients were enrolled with a median CD4 cell count of 589 cells/μl and the duration of previous EFV therapy was 3.9 years. Fifty-five patients completed the study. When asked about treatment preference after 12 weeks, 16 preferred EFV and 22 preferred ETR, whereas 17 did not express a preference (P = NS). Patients who continued EFV during the first phase of the trial preferred EFV (15/21, 71%), whereas patients who started with ETR were more likely to prefer ETR (n = 16/17, 94%). This order effect was strongly significant (P < 0.0001). Quality of sleep, depression, anxiety and stress scores did not differ significantly between groups. Median plasma cholesterol levels decreased by 0.7 mmol (29 mg/100 ml) after replacing EFV with ETR (P < 0.002). CONCLUSION: After substitution of EFV by ETR, patients did not express a significant preference for ETR. There was no measurable effect on neuropsychiatric symptoms and sleep. Cholesterol decreased.