Simulating the value of collaboration in multi-actor conservation planning

The loss of habitat and biodiversity worldwide has led to considerable resources being spent for conservation purposes on actions such as the acquisition and management of land, the rehabilitation of degraded habitats, and the purchase of easements from private landowners. Prioritising these actions is challenging due to the complexity of the problem and because there can be multiple actors undertaking conservation actions, often with divergent or partially overlapping objectives. We use a modelling framework to explore this issue with a study involving two agents sequentially purchasing land for conservation. We apply our model to simulated data using distributions taken from real data to simulate the cost of patches and the rarity and co-occurence of species. In our model each agent attempted to implement a conservation network that met its target for the minimum cost using the conservation planning software Marxan. We examine three scenarios where the conservation targets of the agents differ. The first scenario (called NGO-NGO) models the situation where two NGOs are both are targeting different sets of threatened species. The second and third scenarios (called NGO-Gov and Gov-NGO, respectively) represent a case where a government agency attempts to implement a complementary conservation network representing all species, while an NGO is focused on achieving additional protection for the most endangered species. For each of these scenarios we examined three types of interactions between agents: i) acting in isolation where the agents are attempting to achieve their targets solely though their own actions ii) sharing information where each agent is aware of the species representation achieved within the other agent’s conservation network and, iii) pooling resources where agents combine their resources and undertake conservation actions as a single entity. The latter two interactions represent different types of collaborations and in each scenario we determine the cost savings from sharing information or pooling resources. In each case we examined the utility of these interactions from the viewpoint of the combined conservation network resulting from both agents' actions, as well as from each agent’s individual perspective. The costs for each agent to achieve their objectives varied depending on the order in which the agents acted, the type of interaction between agents, and the specific goals of each agent. There were significant cost savings from increased collaboration via sharing information in the NGO-NGO scenario were the agent’s representation goals were mutually exclusive (in terms of specie targeted). In the NGO-Gov and Gov-NGO scenarios, collaboration generated much smaller savings. If the two agents collaborate by pooling resources there are multiple ways the total cost could be shared between both agents. For each scenario we investigate the costs and benefits for all possible cost sharing proportions. We find that there are a range of cost sharing proportions where both agents can benefit in the NGO-NGO scenarios while the NGO-Gov and Gov-NGO scenarios again showed little benefit. Although the model presented here has a range of simplifying assumptions, it demonstrates that the value of collaboration can vary significantly in different situations. In most cases, collaborating would have associated costs and these costs need to be weighed against the potential benefits from collaboration. The model demonstrates a method for determining the range of collaboration costs that would result in collaboration providing an efficient use of scarce conservation resources.

The emergence of knowledge exchange:an agent-based model of a software market

We investigate knowledge exchange among commercial organizations, the rationale behind it, and its effects on the market. Knowledge exchange is known to be beneficial for industry, but in order to explain it, authors have used high-level concepts like network effects, reputation, and trust. We attempt to formalize a plausible and elegant explanation of how and why companies adopt information exchange and why it benefits the market as a whole when this happens. This explanation is based on a multiagent model that simulates a market of software providers. Even though the model does not include any high-level concepts, information exchange naturally emerges during simulations as a successful profitable behavior. The conclusions reached by this agent-based analysis are twofold: 1) a straightforward set of assumptions is enough to give rise to exchange in a software market, and 2) knowledge exchange is shown to increase the efficiency of the market.

Simulating the value of collaboration in multi-actor conservation planning

The loss of habitat and biodiversity worldwide has led to considerable resources being spent on conservation interventions. Prioritising these actions is challenging due to the complexity of the problem and because there can be multiple actors undertaking conservation actions, often with divergent or partially overlapping objectives. We explore this issue with a simulation study involving two agents sequentially purchasing land for the conservation of multiple species using three scenarios comprising either divergent or partially overlapping objectives between the agents. The first scenario investigates the situation where both agents are targeting different sets of threatened species. The second and third scenarios represent a case where a government agency attempts to implement a complementary conservation network representing 200 species, while a non-government organisation is focused on achieving additional protection for the ten rarest species. Simulated input data was generated using distributions taken from real data to model the cost of parcels, and the rarity and co-occurrence of species. We investigated three types of collaborative interactions between agents: acting in isolation, sharing information and pooling resources with the third option resulting in the agents combining their resources and effectively acting as a single entity. In each scenario we determine the cost savings when an agent moves from acting in isolation to either sharing information or pooling resources with the other agent. The model demonstrates how the value of collaboration can vary significantly in different situations. In most cases, collaborating would have associated costs and these costs need to be weighed against the potential benefits from collaboration. Our model demonstrates a method for determining the range of costs that would result in collaboration providing an efficient use of scarce conservation resources.

A multi-level investigation of psychological contract breach and organizational identification through the lens of perceived organizational membership:testing a moderated-mediated model

Drawing on the perceived organizational membership theoretical framework and the social identity view of dissonance theory, I examined in this study the dynamics of the relationship between psychological contract breach and organizational identification. I included group-level transformational and transactional leadership as well as procedural justice in the hypothesized model as key antecedents for organizational membership processes. I further explored the mediating role of psychological contract breach in the relationship between leadership, procedural justice climate, and organizational identification and proposed separateness–connectedness self-schema as an important moderator of the above mediated relationship. Hierarchical linear modeling results from a sample of 864 employees from 162 work units in 10 Greek organizations indicated that employees' perception of psychological contract breach negatively affected their organizational identification. I also found psychological contract breach to mediate the impact of transformational and transactional leadership on organizational identification. Results further provided support for moderated mediation and showed that the indirect effects of transformational and transactional leadership on identification through psychological contract breach were stronger for employees with a low connectedness self-schema.

A fuzzy AHP based integer linear programming model for the multi-criteria transshipment problem

Purpose – The purpose of this research is to develop a holistic approach to maximize the customer service level while minimizing the logistics cost by using an integrated multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) method for the contemporary transshipment problem. Unlike the prevalent optimization techniques, this paper proposes an integrated approach which considers both quantitative and qualitative factors in order to maximize the benefits of service deliverers and customers under uncertain environments. Design/methodology/approach – This paper proposes a fuzzy-based integer linear programming model, based on the existing literature and validated with an example case. The model integrates the developed fuzzy modification of the analytic hierarchy process (FAHP), and solves the multi-criteria transshipment problem. Findings – This paper provides several novel insights about how to transform a company from a cost-based model to a service-dominated model by using an integrated MCDM method. It suggests that the contemporary customer-driven supply chain remains and increases its competitiveness from two aspects: optimizing the cost and providing the best service simultaneously. Research limitations/implications – This research used one illustrative industry case to exemplify the developed method. Considering the generalization of the research findings and the complexity of the transshipment service network, more cases across multiple industries are necessary to further enhance the validity of the research output. Practical implications – The paper includes implications for the evaluation and selection of transshipment service suppliers, the construction of optimal transshipment network as well as managing the network. Originality/value – The major advantages of this generic approach are that both quantitative and qualitative factors under fuzzy environment are considered simultaneously and also the viewpoints of service deliverers and customers are focused. Therefore, it is believed that it is useful and applicable for the transshipment service network design.

Multi-Domain Information Model

The Multi-Domain Information Model for organisation of the information bases is presented.

Multi-model fitting based on minimum spanning tree

This paper presents a novel approach to the computation of primitive geometrical structures, where no prior knowledge about the visual scene is available and a high level of noise is expected. We based our work on the grouping principles of proximity and similarity, of points and preliminary models. The former was realized using Minimum Spanning Trees (MST), on which we apply a stable alignment and goodness of fit criteria. As for the latter, we used spectral clustering of preliminary models. The algorithm can be generalized to various model fitting settings, without tuning of run parameters. Experiments demonstrate the significant improvement in the localization accuracy of models in plane, homography and motion segmentation examples. The efficiency of the algorithm is not dependent on fine tuning of run parameters like most others in the field.

Validation of a multi-component digital dissolution model for irregular particles

A new mesoscale simulation model for solids dissolution based on an computationally efficient and versatile digital modelling approach (DigiDiss) is considered and validated against analytical solutions and published experimental data for simple geometries. As the digital model is specifically designed to handle irregular shapes and complex multi-component structures, use of the model is explored for single crystals (sugars) and clusters. Single crystals and the cluster were first scanned using X-ray microtomography to obtain a digital version of their structures. The digitised particles and clusters were used as a structural input to digital simulation. The same particles were then dissolved in water and the dissolution process was recorded by a video camera and analysed yielding: the overall dissolution times and images of particle size and shape during the dissolution. The results demonstrate the coherence of simulation method to reproduce experimental behaviour, based on known chemical and diffusion properties of constituent phase. The paper discusses how further sophistications to the modelling approach will need to include other important effects such as complex disintegration effects (particle ejection, uncertainties in chemical properties). The nature of the digital modelling approach is well suited to for future implementation with high speed computation using hybrid conventional (CPU) and graphical processor (GPU) systems.

Implementing an agent-based model with a spatial visual display in discrete-event simulation software

There has been an increasing interest in the use of agent-based simulation and some discussion of the relative merits of this approach as compared to discrete-event simulation. There are differing views on whether an agent-based simulation offers capabilities that discrete-event cannot provide or whether all agent-based applications can at least in theory be undertaken using a discrete-event approach. This paper presents a simple agent-based NetLogo model and corresponding discrete-event versions implemented in the widely used ARENA software. The two versions of the discrete-event model presented use a traditional process flow approach normally adopted in discrete-event simulation software and also an agent-based approach to the model build. In addition a real-time spatial visual display facility is provided using a spreadsheet platform controlled by VBA code embedded within the ARENA model. Initial findings from this investigation are that discrete-event simulation can indeed be used to implement agent-based models and with suitable integration elements such as VBA provide the spatial displays associated with agent-based software.

An agent-based model of team coordination and performance

This research is based on the premises that teams can be designed to optimize its performance, and appropriate team coordination is a significant factor to team outcome performance. Contingency theory argues that the effectiveness of a team depends on the right fit of the team design factors to the particular job at hand. Therefore, organizations need computational tools capable of predict the performance of different configurations of teams. This research created an agent-based model of teams called the Team Coordination Model (TCM). The TCM estimates the coordination load and performance of a team, based on its composition, coordination mechanisms, and job’s structural characteristics. The TCM can be used to determine the team’s design characteristics that most likely lead the team to achieve optimal performance. The TCM is implemented as an agent-based discrete-event simulation application built using JAVA and Cybele Pro agent architecture. The model implements the effect of individual team design factors on team processes, but the resulting performance emerges from the behavior of the agents. These team member agents use decision making, and explicit and implicit mechanisms to coordinate the job. The model validation included the comparison of the TCM’s results with statistics from a real team and with the results predicted by the team performance literature. An illustrative 26-1 fractional factorial experimental design demonstrates the application of the simulation model to the design of a team. The results from the ANOVA analysis have been used to recommend the combination of levels of the experimental factors that optimize the completion time for a team that runs sailboats races. This research main contribution to the team modeling literature is a model capable of simulating teams working on complex job environments. The TCM implements a stochastic job structure model capable of capturing some of the complexity not capture by current models. In a stochastic job structure, the tasks required to complete the job change during the team execution of the job. This research proposed three new types of dependencies between tasks required to model a job as a stochastic structure. These dependencies are conditional sequential, single-conditional sequential, and the merge dependencies.

Deterministic and probabilistic verification of multi-model meteorological forecasts on the subseasonal timescale

In questo studio, un multi-model ensemble è stato implementato e verificato, seguendo una delle priorità di ricerca del Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project (S2S). Una regressione lineare è stata applicata ad un insieme di previsioni di ensemble su date passate, prodotte dai centri di previsione mensile del CNR-ISAC e ECMWF-IFS. Ognuna di queste contiene un membro di controllo e quattro elementi perturbati. Le variabili scelte per l'analisi sono l'altezza geopotenziale a 500 hPa, la temperatura a 850 hPa e la temperatura a 2 metri, la griglia spaziale ha risoluzione 1 ◦ × 1 ◦ lat-lon e sono stati utilizzati gli inverni dal 1990 al 2010. Le rianalisi di ERA-Interim sono utilizzate sia per realizzare la regressione, sia nella validazione dei risultati, mediante stimatori nonprobabilistici come lo scarto quadratico medio (RMSE) e la correlazione delle anomalie. Successivamente, tecniche di Model Output Statistics (MOS) e Direct Model Output (DMO) sono applicate al multi-model ensemble per ottenere previsioni probabilistiche per la media settimanale delle anomalie di temperatura a 2 metri. I metodi MOS utilizzati sono la regressione logistica e la regressione Gaussiana non-omogenea, mentre quelli DMO sono il democratic voting e il Tukey plotting position. Queste tecniche sono applicate anche ai singoli modelli in modo da effettuare confronti basati su stimatori probabilistici, come il ranked probability skill score, il discrete ranked probability skill score e il reliability diagram. Entrambe le tipologie di stimatori mostrano come il multi-model abbia migliori performance rispetto ai singoli modelli. Inoltre, i valori più alti di stimatori probabilistici sono ottenuti usando una regressione logistica sulla sola media di ensemble. Applicando la regressione a dataset di dimensione ridotta, abbiamo realizzato una curva di apprendimento che mostra come un aumento del numero di date nella fase di addestramento non produrrebbe ulteriori miglioramenti.