Bt-cotton boosts the gross margin of small-scale cotton producers in South Africa

This paper explores some of the issues involved in the Genetic Modification (GM) debate by focusing on one crop that has been modified for pest resistance, cotton (Gossypium hirsutum), and commercially released to small-scale farmers in the Makhathini Flats, KwaZulu Natal, the Republic of South Africa. This was the first commercial release of a GM variety (Bt-cotton) in Sub-Saharan Africa, and thus provides valuable and timely insights into some of the potential advantages and disadvantages of the technology for small-scale farmers in Africa. Even though there are wider concerns regarding the vulnerability of small-scale farmers in the area, the survey results suggest that Bt-cotton generated higher yields and gross margins than non-Bt-cotton. In addition, Bt-cotton significantly reduced the use of pesticide with consequent potential benefits to human health and the environment.

Environmental impact of genetically modified cotton in South Africa

This paper presents the results of a large-scale study designed to monitor the impact arising from the introduction of insect-resistant Bt cotton in the Makhathini Flats, Republic of South Africa. Bt cotton provides a degree of resistance to cotton bollworm complex (Lepidoptera). Data were collected on the use of insecticides (type and quantity) as well as the farm-level economics of production from over 2200 farmers in three growing seasons (1998/1999, 1999/2000 and 2000/2001). and the results are discussed within the context of environmental impact brought about by insecticide. Over the three seasons of the study it was clear that Bt cotton provided benefits in terms of higher yield and gross margin relative to farmers growing conventional (non-Bt) cotton, and the benefits were particularly apparent for the smallest producers. Bt growers also used significantly less insecticide than growers of non-Bt cotton. Once quantities of insecticide applied to Bt and non-Bt cotton were converted into a Biocide Index and an Environmental Impact Quotient (EIQ) in order to allow for differences in terms of toxicity and persistence in the environment, it was apparent that the growing of Bt had a less negative impact on the environment. While this points to beneficial impacts on agricultural sustainability there are wider concerns regarding the vulnerability of resource-poor farmers in an area with limited (as yet) marketing options for their product and options for livelihood diversification both within and outside agriculture. Cotton producers in Makhathini are vulnerable as they rely on just One company for inputs (including, credit) and for their market. While Bt cotton provides benefits it does not in itself address some of the structural limitations that farmers face. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Making 'dirty' nations look clean? The nation state and the problem of selecting and weighting indices as tools for measuring progress towards sustainability

Pressing global environmental problems highlight the need to develop tools to measure progress towards "sustainability." However, some argue that any such attempt inevitably reflects the views of those creating such tools and only produce highly contested notions of "reality." To explore this tension, we critically assesses the Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI), a well-publicized product of the World Economic Forum that is designed to measure 'sustainability' by ranking nations on league tables based on extensive databases of environmental indicators. By recreating this index, and then using statistical tools (principal components analysis) to test relations between various components of the index, we challenge ways in which countries are ranked in the ESI. Based on this analysis, we suggest (1) that the approach taken to aggregate, interpret and present the ESI creates a misleading impression that Western countries are more sustainable than the developing world; (2) that unaccounted methodological biases allowed the authors of the ESI to over-generalize the relative 'sustainability' of different countries; and, (3) that this has resulted in simplistic conclusions on the relation between economic growth and environmental sustainability. This criticism should not be interpreted as a call for the abandonment of efforts to create standardized comparable data. Instead, this paper proposes that indicator selection and data collection should draw on a range of voices, including local stakeholders as well as international experts. We also propose that aggregating data into final league ranking tables is too prone to error and creates the illusion of absolute and categorical interpretations. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Saito-Tomita-Lusin theorem for JB*-triples and applications

A theorem of Lusin is proved in the non-ordered context of JB*-triples. This is applied to obtain versions of a general transitivity theorem and to deduce refinements of facial structure in closed unit ballls of JB*-triples and duals.

Using aircraft measurements to determine the refractive index of Saharan dust during the DODO Experiments

Much uncertainty in the value of the imaginary part of the refractive index of mineral dust contributes to uncertainty in the radiative effect of mineral dust in the atmosphere. A synthesis of optical, chemical and physical in-situ aircraft measurements from the DODO experiments during February and August 2006 are used to calculate the refractive index mineral dust encountered over West Africa. Radiative transfer modeling and measurements of broadband shortwave irradiance at a range of altitudes are used to test and validate these calculations for a specific dust event on 23 August 2006 over Mauritania. Two techniques are used to determine the refractive index: firstly a method combining measurements of scattering, absorption, size distributions and Mie code simulations, and secondly a method using composition measured on filter samples to apportion the content of internally mixed quartz, calcite and iron oxide-clay aggregates, where the iron oxide is represented by either hematite or goethite and clay by either illite or kaolinite. The imaginary part of the refractive index at 550 nm (ni550) is found to range between 0.0001 i to 0.0046 i, and where filter samples are available, agreement between methods is found depending on mineral combination assumed. The refractive indices are also found to agree well with AERONET data where comparisons are possible. ni550 is found to vary with dust source, which is investigated with the NAME model for each case. The relationship between both size distribution and ni550 on the accumulation mode single scattering albedo at 550 nm (ω0550) are examined and size distribution is found to have no correlation to ω0550, while ni550 shows a strong linear relationship with ω0550. Radiative transfer modeling was performed with different models (Mie-derived refractive indices, but also filter sampling composition assuming both internal and external mixing). Our calculations indicate that Mie-derived values of ni550 and the externally mixed dust where the iron oxide-clay aggregate corresponds to the goethite-kaolinite combination result in the best agreement with irradiance measurements. The radiative effect of the dust is found to be very sensitive to the mineral combination (and hence refractive index) assumed, and to whether the dust is assumed to be internally or externally mixed.

Calculating the exclusion probability and paternity index for X-chromosomal loci in the presence of substructure

There has been recent interest in the use of X-chromosomal loci for forensic and relatedness testing casework, with many authors developing new X-linked short tandem repeat (STR) loci suitable for forensic use. Here we present formulae for two key quantities in paternity testing, the average probability of exclusion and the paternity index, which are suitable for Xchromosomal loci in the presence of population substructure.

Revisiting youden’s index as a useful measure of the misclassification error in meta-analysis of diagnostic studies

The paper considers meta-analysis of diagnostic studies that use a continuous score for classification of study participants into healthy or diseased groups. Classification is often done on the basis of a threshold or cut-off value, which might vary between studies. Consequently, conventional meta-analysis methodology focusing solely on separate analysis of sensitivity and specificity might be confounded by a potentially unknown variation of the cut-off value. To cope with this phenomena it is suggested to use, instead, an overall estimate of the misclassification error previously suggested and used as Youden’s index and; furthermore, it is argued that this index is less prone to between-study variation of cut-off values. A simple Mantel–Haenszel estimator as a summary measure of the overall misclassification error is suggested, which adjusts for a potential study effect. The measure of the misclassification error based on Youden’s index is advantageous in that it easily allows an extension to a likelihood approach, which is then able to cope with unobserved heterogeneity via a nonparametric mixture model. All methods are illustrated at hand of an example on a diagnostic meta-analysis on duplex doppler ultrasound, with angiography as the standard for stroke prevention.

Measuring productivity growth when technological change is biased - a new index and an application to UK agriculture

Productivity growth is conventionally measured by indices representing discreet approximations of the Divisia TFP index under the assumption that technological change is Hicks-neutral. When this assumption is violated, these indices are no longer meaningful because they conflate the effects of factor accumulation and technological change. We propose a way of adjusting the conventional TFP index that solves this problem. The method adopts a latent variable approach to the measurement of technical change biases that provides a simple means of correcting product and factor shares in the standard Tornqvist-Theil TFP index. An application to UK agriculture over the period 1953-2000 demonstrates that technical progress is strongly biased. The implications of that bias for productivity measurement are shown to be very large, with the conventional TFP index severely underestimating productivity growth. The result is explained primarily by the fact that technological change has favoured the rapidly accumulating factors against labour, the factor leaving the sector. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reductions in insecticide use from adoption of Bt cotton in South Africa: impacts on economic performance and toxic load to the environment

The study reported presents the findings relating to commercial growing of genetically-modified Bt cotton in South Africa by a large sample of smallholder farmers over three seasons (1998/99, 1999/2000, 2000/01) following adoption. The analysis presents constructs and compares groupwise differences for key variables in Bt v. non-Bt technology and uses regressions to further analyse the production and profit impacts of Bt adoption. Analysis of the distribution of benefits between farmers due to the technology is also presented. In parallel with these socio-economic measures, the toxic loads being presented to the environment following the introduction of Bt cotton are monitored in terms of insecticide active ingredient (ai) and the Biocide Index. The latter adjusts ai to allow for differing persistence and toxicity of insecticides. Results show substantial and significant financial benefits to smallholder cotton growers of adopting Bt cotton over three seasons in terms of increased yields, lower insecticide spray costs and higher gross margins. This includes one particularly wet, poor growing season. In addition, those with the smaller holdings appeared to benefit proportionately more from the technology (in terms of higher gross margins) than those with larger holdings. Analysis using the Gini-coefficient suggests that the Bt technology has helped to reduce inequality amongst smallholder cotton growers in Makhathini compared to what may have been the position if they had grown conventional cotton. However, while Bt growers applied lower amounts of insecticide and had lower Biocide Indices (per ha) than growers of non-Bt cotton, some of this advantage was due to a reduction in non-bollworm insecticide. Indeed, the Biocide Index for all farmers in the population actually increased with the introduction of Bt cotton. The results indicate the complexity of such studies on the socio-economic and environmental impacts of GM varieties in the developing world.

A cross-taxonomic index for quantifying the health of farmland biodiversity

P>1. The development of sustainable, multi-functional agricultural systems involves reconciling the needs of agricultural production with the objectives for environmental protection, including biodiversity conservation. However, the definition of sustainability remains ambiguous and it has proven difficult to identify suitable indicators for monitoring progress towards, and the successful achievement of, sustainability. 2. In this study, we show that a trait-based approach can be used to assess the detrimental impacts of agricultural change to a broad range of taxonomic groupings and derive a standardised index of farmland biodiversity health, built around an objective of achieving stable or increasing populations in all species associated with agricultural landscapes. 3. To demonstrate its application, we assess the health of UK farmland biodiversity relative to this goal. Our results suggest that the populations of two-thirds of 333 plant and animal species assessed are unsustainable under current UK agricultural practices. 4. We then explore the potential benefits of an agri-environment scheme, Entry Level Stewardship (ELS), to farmland biodiversity in the UK under differing levels of risk mitigation delivery. We show that ELS has the potential to make a significant contribution to progress towards sustainability targets but that this potential is severely restricted by current patterns of scheme deployment. 5.Synthesis and applications: We have developed a cross-taxonomic sustainability index which can be used to assess both the current health of farmland biodiversity and the impacts of future agricultural changes relative to quantitative biodiversity targets. Although biodiversity conservation is just one of a number of factors that must be considered when defining sustainability, we believe our cross-taxonomic index has the potential to be a valuable tool for guiding the development of sustainable agricultural systems.