Alternative ways to estimate change points in multinomial sequences. An application to an authorship attribution problem

The statistical analysis of literary style is the part of stylometry that compares measurable characteristicsin a text that are rarely controlled by the author, with those in other texts. When thegoal is to settle authorship questions, these characteristics should relate to the author’s style andnot to the genre, epoch or editor, and they should be such that their variation between authors islarger than the variation within comparable texts from the same author.For an overview of the literature on stylometry and some of the techniques involved, see for exampleMosteller and Wallace (1964, 82), Herdan (1964), Morton (1978), Holmes (1985), Oakes (1998) orLebart, Salem and Berry (1998).Tirant lo Blanc, a chivalry book, is the main work in catalan literature and it was hailed to be“the best book of its kind in the world” by Cervantes in Don Quixote. Considered by writterslike Vargas Llosa or Damaso Alonso to be the first modern novel in Europe, it has been translatedseveral times into Spanish, Italian and French, with modern English translations by Rosenthal(1996) and La Fontaine (1993). The main body of this book was written between 1460 and 1465,but it was not printed until 1490.There is an intense and long lasting debate around its authorship sprouting from its first edition,where its introduction states that the whole book is the work of Martorell (1413?-1468), while atthe end it is stated that the last one fourth of the book is by Galba (?-1490), after the death ofMartorell. Some of the authors that support the theory of single authorship are Riquer (1990),Chiner (1993) and Badia (1993), while some of those supporting the double authorship are Riquer(1947), Coromines (1956) and Ferrando (1995). For an overview of this debate, see Riquer (1990).Neither of the two candidate authors left any text comparable to the one under study, and thereforediscriminant analysis can not be used to help classify chapters by author. By using sample textsencompassing about ten percent of the book, and looking at word length and at the use of 44conjunctions, prepositions and articles, Ginebra and Cabos (1998) detect heterogeneities that mightindicate the existence of two authors. By analyzing the diversity of the vocabulary, Riba andGinebra (2000) estimates that stylistic boundary to be near chapter 383.Following the lead of the extensive literature, this paper looks into word length, the use of the mostfrequent words and into the use of vowels in each chapter of the book. Given that the featuresselected are categorical, that leads to three contingency tables of ordered rows and therefore tothree sequences of multinomial observations.Section 2 explores these sequences graphically, observing a clear shift in their distribution. Section 3describes the problem of the estimation of a suden change-point in those sequences, in the followingsections we propose various ways to estimate change-points in multinomial sequences; the methodin section 4 involves fitting models for polytomous data, the one in Section 5 fits gamma modelsonto the sequence of Chi-square distances between each row profiles and the average profile, theone in Section 6 fits models onto the sequence of values taken by the first component of thecorrespondence analysis as well as onto sequences of other summary measures like the averageword length. In Section 7 we fit models onto the marginal binomial sequences to identify thefeatures that distinguish the chapters before and after that boundary. Most methods rely heavilyon the use of generalized linear models

Consens i revolució: Poble i nació a la Barcelona de la Revolució Liberal, 1835-1843

Anàlisi dels deferents discursos de moderats, progressistes i republicans i els usos dels mots “poble” i “nació” durant els anys 1837-1843. L’autor considera que aquesta perspectiva és important per entendre el període, tot i que els recents debats sobre els orígens del nacionalisme a Espanya ho han deixat en un lloc secundari

Modern statistical models for forensic fingerprint examinations : a critical review

Over the last decade, the development of statistical models in support of forensic fingerprint identification has been the subject of increasing research attention, spurned on recently by commentators who claim that the scientific basis for fingerprint identification has not been adequately demonstrated. Such models are increasingly seen as useful tools in support of the fingerprint identification process within or in addition to the ACE-V framework. This paper provides a critical review of recent statistical models from both a practical and theoretical perspective. This includes analysis of models of two different methodologies: Probability of Random Correspondence (PRC) models that focus on calculating probabilities of the occurrence of fingerprint configurations for a given population, and Likelihood Ratio (LR) models which use analysis of corresponding features of fingerprints to derive a likelihood value representing the evidential weighting for a potential source.

A First approximation to the realism/idealism debate about the external world

El text intenta fer una primera aproximació al debat contemporani entre realistes i anti-realistes sobre el món empíric, centrant-se en les posicions de Putnam i Nagel. El seu objectiu principal és el d'entendre les motivacions de les posicions i l'estructura actual del debat, i el d'establir les característiques que hauria de tenir qualsevol posició satisfactòria

Role of Immune Escape Mechanisms in Hodgkin's Lymphoma Development and Progression: A Whole New World with Therapeutic Implications.

Hodgkin's lymphoma represents one of the most frequent lymphoproliferative syndromes, especially in young population. Although HL is considered one of the most curable tumors, a sizeable fraction of patients recur after successful upfront treatment or, less commonly, are primarily resistant. This work tries to summarize the data on clinical, histological, pathological, and biological factors in HL, with special emphasis on the improvement of prognosis and their impact on therapeutical strategies. The recent advances in our understanding of HL biology and immunology show that infiltrated immune cells and cytokines in the tumoral microenvironment may play different functions that seem tightly related with clinical outcomes. Strategies aimed at interfering with the crosstalk between tumoral Reed-Sternberg cells and their cellular partners have been taken into account in the development of new immunotherapies that target different cell components of HL microenvironment. This new knowledge will probably translate into a change in the antineoplastic treatments in HL in the next future and hopefully will increase the curability rates of this disease.

Analyse des réseaux sociaux appliquée à l'organisation d'événements sportifs : le cas de la World Gymnaestrada Lausanne 2011

Au cours des trente dernières années, de nombreuses villes, régions et pays, ont développé des politiques publiques d'accueil systématique d'événements sportifs. La concurrence globalisée qui en résulte demande des ressources dont les pouvoirs publics ne disposent pas nécessairement. Dès lors, la stratégie de développement par l'accueil d'événements sportifs est généralement rendue possible par un regroupement d'acteurs issus du secteur public, privé et du milieu associatif sous la forme d'une coalition. C'est à cette fragmentation de la gouvernance urbaine et au fonctionnement du réseau qui en découle que s'intéresse ce cahier. En prenant comme cas d'étude la World Gymnaestrada Lausanne 2011, il nous a été possible d'appliquer une analyse des réseaux sociaux à la coalition qui s'est formée autour de la manifestation. Cette approche, récente pour analyser les événements sportifs dans le contexte des villes européennes, nous a permis d'observer une prédominance des pouvoirs publics dans le réseau entourant la manifestation. Les observations suggèrent également que l'organisation de l'événement, et sa réussite, permet aux autorités de la ville de Lausanne de gagner en légitimité auprès des acteurs du réseau.

Perspectives for the treatment of brucellosis in the 21st century: the Ioannina recommendations

Summary Points Brucellosis remains the commonest anthropozoonosis worldwide, and its treatment remains complex, requiring protracted administration of more than one antibiotic. In November 2006, a consensus meeting aimed at reaching a common specialist statement on the treatment of brucellosis was held in Ioannina, Greece under the auspices of the International Society of Chemotherapy and the Institute of Continuing Medical Education of Ioannina. The author panel suggests that the optimal treatment of uncomplicated brucellosis should be based on a six-week regimen of doxycycline combined either with streptomycin for 2–3 weeks, or rifampicin for six weeks. Gentamicin may be considered an acceptable alternative to streptomycin, while all other regimens/combinations should be considered second-line. The development of a common global therapeutic language for human brucellosis, and future, properly conducted clinical trials would definitely solve controversies regarding the disease.

Immunodetection of Helicobacter sp. and the associated expression of ABO blood group antigens in the gastric mucosa of captive and free-living New World primates in the Amazon region

The histo-blood group ABH antigens were first described in humans. These antigens are only present on erythrocytes from great apes and humans, while in more primitive animals they are found in tissues and body fluids. The ABH antigens are mainly distributed in tissues exposed to the external environment and potentially serve as ligands for pathogens or inhibitors of tissue connections. The objective of this paper was two-fold: (i) to determine the presence of Helicobacter sp. in the gastric mucosa of 16 captive and 24 free-living New World monkeys and (ii) to evaluate the presence of histopathological alterations related to bacterial infection and the associated expression of ABH antigens in the tissue. Stomach tissues from 13 species of monkey were assessed using haematoxylin-eosin and modified Gram staining (Hucker) methods. An immunohistochemical analysis of the tissue revealed the presence of infectious bacteria that were characteristic of the genus Helicobacter sp. The results demonstrate that various species of monkey might be naturally infected with the Helicobacter sp. and that there is an increased susceptibility to infection. This study serves as a comparative analysis of infection between human and non-human primates and indicates the presence of a new species of Helicobacter.

Footprints of a trypanosomatid RNA world: pre-small subunit rRNA processing by spliced leader addition trans-splicing

The addition of a capped mini-exon [spliced leader (SL)] through trans-splicing is essential for the maturation of RNA polymerase (pol) II-transcribed polycistronic pre-mRNAs in all members of the Trypanosomatidae family. This process is an inter-molecular splicing reaction that follows the same basic rules of cis-splicing reactions. In this study, we demonstrated that mini-exons were added to precursor ribosomal RNA (pre-rRNA) are transcribed by RNA pol I, including the 5' external transcribed spacer (ETS) region. Additionally, we detected the SL-5'ETS molecule using three distinct methods and located the acceptor site between two known 5'ETS rRNA processing sites (A' and A1) in four different trypanosomatids. Moreover, we detected a polyadenylated 5'ETS upstream of the trans-splicing acceptor site, which also occurs in pre-mRNA trans-splicing. After treatment with an indirect trans-splicing inhibitor (sinefungin), we observed SL-5'ETS decay. However, treatment with 5-fluorouracil (a precursor of RNA synthesis that inhibits the degradation of pre-rRNA) led to the accumulation of SL-5'ETS, suggesting that the molecule may play a role in rRNA degradation. The detection of trans-splicing in these molecules may indicate broad RNA-joining properties, regardless of the polymerase used for transcription.

Leprosy frequency in the world, 1999-2010

In 1991, the World Health Organization (WHO) committed to reducing the prevalence of leprosy to below 1 in 10,000 inhabitants by 2000. Significant improvements in leprosy control have occurred, but leprosy remains a public health problem in many countries due to its high incidence and rate of transmission. This paper reviews data published by the WHO in the years 2000, 2005 and 2010. These data sets included 148 countries or territories that reported to the WHO at least once. Only four countries reported higher prevalence rates in 2010 than in 2000 and eight reported higher case detection rate (CDR) in 2009 than in 1999. Prevalence rate reductions were greater for the first five-year period examined, while CDR reductions were greater in the second five-year period. Thirty-six countries and territories reported at least one prevalence value higher than 1 per 10,000 inhabitants and 32 reported at least one CDR value higher than 9 per 100,000 inhabitants. A total of 39 countries fit at least one of these criteria and all were located in tropical regions.

S. P. Huntington : identitats i geopolítica

Aquest treball té com a propòsit esbrinar quina política internacional legitima S. P. Huntington, i quin paper hi adjudica als Estats Units. En aquest sentit, s'analitza el contingut de la teoria del "xoc de civilitzacions" i es treuen conclusions a partir de l'associació que realitza el politòleg nord-americà entre política internacional i les identitats cultural i religiosa en un món que ell considera marcadament hobbesià o d'esperit agonista.