Modelling the resistance of Enterprise Architecture adoption: linking strategic level of Enterprise Architecture to organisational changes and change resistance

During the last few years Enterprise Architecture (EA) has received increasing attention among industry and academia. By adopting EA, organisations may gain a number of benefits such as better decision making,increased revenues and cost reduction, and alignment of business and IT. However, EA adoption has been found to be difficult. In this paper a model to explain resistance during EA adoption process (REAP) is introduced and validated. The model reveals relationships between strategic level of EA, resulting organisational changes, and sources of resistance. By utilising REAP model, organisations may anticipate and prepare for the organisational change resistance during EA adoption.

A mechanism of internal decadal atlantic ocean variability in a high-resolution coupled climate model

The North Atlantic Ocean subpolar gyre (NA SPG) is an important region for initialising decadal climate forecasts. Climate model simulations and palaeo climate reconstructions have indicated that this region could also exhibit large, internally generated variability on decadal timescales. Understanding these modes of variability, their consistency across models, and the conditions in which they exist, is clearly important for improving the skill of decadal predictions — particularly when these predictions are made with the same underlying climate models. Here we describe and analyse a mode of internal variability in the NA SPG in a state-of-the-art, high resolution, coupled climate model. This mode has a period of 17 years and explains 15–30% of the annual variance in related ocean indices. It arises due to the advection of heat content anomalies around the NA SPG. Anomalous circulation drives the variability in the southern half of the NA SPG, whilst mean circulation and anomalous temperatures are important in the northern half. A negative feedback between Labrador Sea temperatures/densities and those in the North Atlantic Current is identified, which allows for the phase reversal. The atmosphere is found to act as a positive feedback on to this mode via the North Atlantic Oscillation which itself exhibits a spectral peak at 17 years. Decadal ocean density changes associated with this mode are driven by variations in temperature, rather than salinity — a point which models often disagree on and which we suggest may affect the veracity of the underlying assumptions of anomaly-assimilating decadal prediction methodologies.

Enterprise Architecture adoption method for Higher Education Institutions

During the last few years Enterprise Architecture has received increasing attention among industry and academia. Enterprise Architecture (EA) can be defined as (i) a formal description of the current and future state(s) of an organisation, and (ii) a managed change between these states to meet organisation’s stakeholders’ goals and to create value to the organisation. By adopting EA, organisations may gain a number of benefits such as better decision making, increased revenues and cost reductions, and alignment of business and IT. To increase the performance of public sector operations, and to improve public services and their availability, the Finnish Parliament has ratified the Act on Information Management Governance in Public Administration in 2011. The Act mandates public sector organisations to start adopting EA by 2014, including Higher Education Institutions (HEIs). Despite the benefits of EA and the Act, EA adoption level and maturity in Finnish HEIs are low. This is partly caused by the fact that EA adoption has been found to be difficult. Thus there is a need for a solution to help organisations to adopt EA successfully. This thesis follows Design Science (DS) approach to improve traditional EA adoption method in order to increase the likelihood of successful adoption. First a model is developed to explain the change resistance during EA adoption. To find out problems associated with EA adoption, an EA-pilot conducted in 2010 among 12 Finnish HEIs was analysed using the model. It was found that most of the problems were caused by misunderstood EA concepts, attitudes, and lack of skills. The traditional EA adoption method does not pay attention to these. To overcome the limitations of the traditional EA adoption method, an improved EA Adoption Method (EAAM) is introduced. By following EAAM, organisations may increase the likelihood of successful EA adoption. EAAM helps in acquiring the mandate for EA adoption from top-management, which has been found to be crucial to success. It also helps in supporting individual and organisational learning, which has also found to be essential in successful adoption.

The response of the Southern Hemispheric eddy-driven jet to future changes in shortwave radiation in CMIP5

A strong relationship is found between changes in the meridional gradient of absorbed shortwave radiation (ASR) and Southern Hemispheric jet shifts in 21st century climate simulations of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) coupled models. The relationship is such that models with increases in the meridional ASR gradient around the southern midlatitudes, and therefore increases in midlatitude baroclinicity, tend to produce a larger poleward jet shift. The ASR changes are shown to be dominated by changes in cloud properties, with sea ice declines playing a secondary role. We demonstrate that the ASR changes are the cause, and not the result, of the intermodel differences in jet response by comparing coupled simulations with experiments in which sea surface temperature increases are prescribed. Our results highlight the importance of reducing the uncertainty in cloud feedbacks in order to constrain future circulation changes.

Current model capabilities for simulating black carbon and sulfate concentrations in the Arctic atmosphere: a multi-model evaluation using a comprehensive measurement data set

The concentrations of sulfate, black carbon (BC) and other aerosols in the Arctic are characterized by high values in late winter and spring (so-called Arctic Haze) and low values in summer. Models have long been struggling to capture this seasonality and especially the high concentrations associated with Arctic Haze. In this study, we evaluate sulfate and BC concentrations from eleven different models driven with the same emission inventory against a comprehensive pan-Arctic measurement data set over a time period of 2 years (2008–2009). The set of models consisted of one Lagrangian particle dispersion model, four chemistry transport models (CTMs), one atmospheric chemistry-weather forecast model and five chemistry climate models (CCMs), of which two were nudged to meteorological analyses and three were running freely. The measurement data set consisted of surface measurements of equivalent BC (eBC) from five stations (Alert, Barrow, Pallas, Tiksi and Zeppelin), elemental carbon (EC) from Station Nord and Alert and aircraft measurements of refractory BC (rBC) from six different campaigns. We find that the models generally captured the measured eBC or rBC and sulfate concentrations quite well, compared to previous comparisons. However, the aerosol seasonality at the surface is still too weak in most models. Concentrations of eBC and sulfate averaged over three surface sites are underestimated in winter/spring in all but one model (model means for January–March underestimated by 59 and 37 % for BC and sulfate, respectively), whereas concentrations in summer are overestimated in the model mean (by 88 and 44 % for July–September), but with overestimates as well as underestimates present in individual models. The most pronounced eBC underestimates, not included in the above multi-site average, are found for the station Tiksi in Siberia where the measured annual mean eBC concentration is 3 times higher than the average annual mean for all other stations. This suggests an underestimate of BC sources in Russia in the emission inventory used. Based on the campaign data, biomass burning was identified as another cause of the modeling problems. For sulfate, very large differences were found in the model ensemble, with an apparent anti-correlation between modeled surface concentrations and total atmospheric columns. There is a strong correlation between observed sulfate and eBC concentrations with consistent sulfate/eBC slopes found for all Arctic stations, indicating that the sources contributing to sulfate and BC are similar throughout the Arctic and that the aerosols are internally mixed and undergo similar removal. However, only three models reproduced this finding, whereas sulfate and BC are weakly correlated in the other models. Overall, no class of models (e.g., CTMs, CCMs) performed better than the others and differences are independent of model resolution.

Climate-driven expansion of blanket bogs in Britain during the Holocene

Blanket bog occupies approximately 6 % of the area of the UK today. The Holocene expansion of this hyperoceanic biome has previously been explained as a consequence of Neolithic forest clearance. However, the present distribution of blanket bog in Great Britain can be predicted accurately with a simple model (PeatStash) based on summer temperature and moisture index thresholds, and the same model correctly predicts the highly disjunct distribution of blanket bog worldwide. This finding suggests that climate, rather than land-use history, controls blanket-bog distribution in the UK and everywhere else. We set out to test this hypothesis for blanket bogs in the UK using bioclimate envelope modelling compared with a database of peat initiation age estimates. We used both pollen-based reconstructions and climate model simulations of climate changes between the mid-Holocene (6000 yr BP, 6 ka) and modern climate to drive PeatStash and predict areas of blanket bog. We compiled data on the timing of blanket-bog initiation, based on 228 age determinations at sites where peat directly overlies mineral soil. The model predicts large areas of northern Britain would have had blanket bog by 6000 yr BP, and the area suitable for peat growth extended to the south after this time. A similar pattern is shown by the basal peat ages and new blanket bog appeared over a larger area during the late Holocene, the greatest expansion being in Ireland, Wales and southwest England, as the model predicts. The expansion was driven by a summer cooling of about 2 °C, shown by both pollen-based reconstructions and climate models. The data show early Holocene (pre-Neolithic) blanket-bog initiation at over half of the sites in the core areas of Scotland, and northern England. The temporal patterns and concurrence of the bioclimate model predictions and initiation data suggest that climate change provides a parsimonious explanation for the early Holocene distribution and later expansion of blanket bogs in the UK, and it is not necessary to invoke anthropogenic activity as a driver of this major landscape change.

The role of lipid composition on the interaction between a tryptophan-rich protein and model bacterial membranes

The interaction between tryptophan-rich puroindoline proteins and model bacterial membranes at the air-liquid interface has been investigated by FTIR spectroscopy, surface pressure measurements and Brewster angle microscopy. The role of different lipid constituents on the interactions between lipid membrane and protein was studied using wild type (Pin-b) and mutant (Trp44 to Arg44 mutant, Pin-bs) puroindoline proteins. The results show differences in the lipid selectivity of the two proteins in terms of preferential binding to specific lipid head groups in mixed lipid systems. Pin-b wild type was able to penetrate mixed layers of phosphatidylethanolamine (PE) and phosphatidylglycerol (PG) head groups more deeply compared to the mutant Pin-bs. Increasing saturation of the lipid tails increased penetration and adsorption of Pin-b wild type, but again the response of the mutant form differed. The results provide insight as to the role of membrane architecture, lipid composition and fluidity, on antimicrobial activity of proteins. Data show distinct differences in the lipid binding behavior of Pin-b as a result of a single residue mutation, highlighting the importance of hydrophobic and charged amino acids in antimicrobial protein and peptide activity.

Southern Ocean isopycnal mixing and ventilation changes driven by winds

Observed and predicted changes in the strength of the westerly winds blowing over the Southern Ocean have motivated a number of studies of the response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) to wind perturbations and led to the discovery of the``eddy-compensation" regime, wherein the MOC becomes insensitive to wind changes. In addition to the MOC, tracer transport also depends on mixing processes. Here we show, in a high-resolution process model, that isopycnal mixing by mesoscale eddies is strongly dependent on the wind strength. This dependence can be explained by mixing-length theory and is driven by increases in eddy kinetic energy; the mixing length does not change strongly in our simulation. Simulation of a passive ventilation tracer (analogous to CFCs or anthropogenic CO$_2$) demonstrates that variations in tracer uptake across experiments are dominated by changes in isopycnal mixing, rather than changes in the MOC. We argue that, to properly understand tracer uptake under different wind-forcing scenarios, the sensitivity of isopycnal mixing to winds must be accounted for.

Climate-driven expansion of blanket bogs in Britain during the Holocene

Blanket bog occupies approximately 6% of the area of the UK today. The Holocene expansion of this hyperoceanic biome has previously been explained as a consequence of Neolithic forest clearance. However, the present distribution of blanket bog in Great Britain can be predicted accurately with a simple model (PeatStash) based on summer temperature and moisture index thresholds, and the same model correctly predicts the highly disjunct distribution of blanket bog worldwide. This finding suggests that climate, rather than land-use history, controls blanket-bog distribution in the UK and everywhere else. We set out to test this hypothesis for blanket bogs in the UK using bioclimate envelope modelling compared with a database of peat initiation age estimates. We used both pollen-based reconstructions and climate model simulations of climate changes between the mid-Holocene (6000 yr BP, 6 ka) and modern climate to drive PeatStash and predict areas of blanket bog. We compiled data on the timing of blanketbog initiation, based on 228 age determinations at sites where peat directly overlies mineral soil. The model predicts that large areas of northern Britain would have had blanket bog by 6000 yr BP, and the area suitable for peat growth extended to the south after this time. A similar pattern is shown by the basal peat ages and new blanket bog appeared over a larger area during the late Holocene, the greatest expansion being in Ireland,Wales, and southwest England, as the model predicts. The expansion was driven by a summer cooling of about 2 °C, shown by both pollen-based reconstructions and climate models. The data show early Holocene (pre- Neolithic) blanket-bog initiation at over half of the sites in the core areas of Scotland and northern England. The temporal patterns and concurrence of the bioclimate model predictions and initiation data suggest that climate change provides a parsimonious explanation for the early Holocene distribution and later expansion of blanket bogs in the UK, and it is not necessary to invoke anthropogenic activity as a driver of this major landscape change.

Interactions between wind-blown snow redistribution and melt ponds in a coupled ocean–sea ice model

Introducing a parameterization of the interactions between wind-driven snow depth changes and melt pond evolution allows us to improve large scale models. In this paper we have implemented an explicit melt pond scheme and, for the first time, a wind dependant snow redistribution model and new snow thermophysics into a coupled ocean–sea ice model. The comparison of long-term mean statistics of melt pond fractions against observations demonstrates realistic melt pond cover on average over Arctic sea ice, but a clear underestimation of the pond coverage on the multi-year ice (MYI) of the western Arctic Ocean. The latter shortcoming originates from the concealing effect of persistent snow on forming ponds, impeding their growth. Analyzing a second simulation with intensified snow drift enables the identification of two distinct modes of sensitivity in the melt pond formation process. First, the larger proportion of wind-transported snow that is lost in leads directly curtails the late spring snow volume on sea ice and facilitates the early development of melt ponds on MYI. In contrast, a combination of higher air temperatures and thinner snow prior to the onset of melting sometimes make the snow cover switch to a regime where it melts entirely and rapidly. In the latter situation, seemingly more frequent on first-year ice (FYI), a smaller snow volume directly relates to a reduced melt pond cover. Notwithstanding, changes in snow and water accumulation on seasonal sea ice is naturally limited, which lessens the impacts of wind-blown snow redistribution on FYI, as compared to those on MYI. At the basin scale, the overall increased melt pond cover results in decreased ice volume via the ice-albedo feedback in summer, which is experienced almost exclusively by MYI.

The role of CO2 and dynamic vegetation on the impact of temperate land use change in the HadCM3 coupled climate model

Human induced land-use change (LUC) alters the biogeophysical characteristics of the land surface influencing the surface energy balance. The level of atmospheric CO2 is expected to increase in the coming century and beyond, modifying temperature and precipitation patterns and altering the distribution and physiology of natural vegetation. It is important to constrain how CO2-induced climate and vegetation change may influence the regional extent to which LUC alters climate. This sensitivity study uses the HadCM3 coupled climate model under a range of equilibrium forcings to show that the impact of LUC declines under increasing atmospheric CO2, specifically in temperate and boreal regions. A surface energy balance analysis is used to diagnose how these changes occur. In Northern Hemisphere winter this pattern is attributed in part to the decline in winter snow cover and in the summer due to a reduction in latent cooling with higher levels of CO2. The CO2-induced change in natural vegetation distribution is also shown to play a significant role. Simulations run at elevated CO2 yet present day vegetation show a significantly increased sensitivity to LUC, driven in part by an increase in latent cooling. This study shows that modelling the impact of LUC needs to accurately simulate CO2 driven changes in precipitation and snowfall, and incorporate accurate, dynamic vegetation distribution.

A low mortality, high morbidity reduced intensity status epilepticus (RISE) model of epilepsy and epileptogenesis in the rat

Animal models of acquired epilepsies aim to provide researchers with tools for use in understanding the processes underlying the acquisition, development and establishment of the disorder. Typically, following a systemic or local insult, vulnerable brain regions undergo a process leading to the development, over time, of spontaneous recurrent seizures. Many such models make use of a period of intense seizure activity or status epilepticus, and this may be associated with high mortality and/or global damage to large areas of the brain. These undesirable elements have driven improvements in the design of chronic epilepsy models, for example the lithium-pilocarpine epileptogenesis model. Here, we present an optimised model of chronic epilepsy that reduces mortality to 1% whilst retaining features of high epileptogenicity and development of spontaneous seizures. Using local field potential recordings from hippocampus in vitro as a probe, we show that the model does not result in significant loss of neuronal network function in area CA3 and, instead, subtle alterations in network dynamics appear during a process of epileptogenesis, which eventually leads to a chronic seizure state. The model’s features of very low mortality and high morbidity in the absence of global neuronal damage offer the chance to explore the processes underlying epileptogenesis in detail, in a population of animals not defined by their resistance to seizures, whilst acknowledging and being driven by the 3Rs (Replacement, Refinement and Reduction of animal use in scientific procedures) principles.

Evaluation of moisture sources for the Central European summer flood of May/June 2013 based on regional climate model simulations

Heavy precipitation affected Central Europe in May/June 2013, triggering damaging floods both on the Danube and the Elbe rivers. Based on a modelling approach with COSMO-CLM, moisture fluxes, backward trajectories, cyclone tracks and precipitation fields are evaluated for the relevant time period 30 May–2 June 2013. We identify potential moisture sources and quantify their contribution to the flood event focusing on the Danube basin through sensitivity experiments: Control simulations are performed with undisturbed ERA-Interim boundary conditions, while multiple sensitivity experiments are driven with modified evaporation characteristics over selected marine and land areas. Two relevant cyclones are identified both in reanalysis and in our simulations, which moved counter-clockwise in a retrograde path from Southeastern Europe over Eastern Europe towards the northern slopes of the Alps. The control simulations represent the synoptic evolution of the event reasonably well. The evolution of the precipitation event in the control simulations shows some differences in terms of its spatial and temporal characteristics compared to observations. The main precipitation event can be separated into two phases concerning the moisture sources. Our modelling results provide evidence that the two main sources contributing to the event were the continental evapotranspiration (moisture recycling; both phases) and the North Atlantic Ocean (first phase only). The Mediterranean Sea played only a minor role as a moisture source. This study confirms the importance of continental moisture recycling for heavy precipitation events over Central Europe during the summer half year.

Fast and slow precipitation responses to individual climate forcers: a PDRMIP multi-model study

Precipitation is expected to respond differently to various drivers of anthropogenic climate change. We present the first results from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), where nine global climate models have perturbed CO2, CH4, black carbon, sulfate, and solar insolation. We divide the resulting changes to global mean and regional precipitation into fast responses that scale with changes in atmospheric absorption and slow responses scaling with surface temperature change. While the overall features are broadly similar between models, we find significant regional intermodel variability, especially over land. Black carbon stands out as a component that may cause significant model diversity in predicted precipitation change. Processes linked to atmospheric absorption are less consistently modeled than those linked to top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing. We identify a number of land regions where the model ensemble consistently predicts that fast precipitation responses to climate perturbations dominate over the slow, temperature-driven responses.

A METHOD FOR THE STUDY OF ACCRETION DISK EMISSION IN CATACLYSMIC VARIABLES. I. THE MODEL

We have developed a spectrum synthesis method for modeling the ultraviolet (UV) emission from the accretion disk from cataclysmic variables (CVs). The disk is separated into concentric rings, with an internal structure from the Wade & Hubeny disk-atmosphere models. For each ring, a wind atmosphere is calculated in the comoving frame with a vertical velocity structure obtained from a solution of the Euler equation. Using simple assumptions, regarding rotation and the wind streamlines, these one-dimensional models are combined into a single 2.5-dimensional model for which we compute synthetic spectra. We find that the resulting line and continuum behavior as a function of the orbital inclination is consistent with the observations, and verify that the accretion rate affects the wind temperature, leading to corresponding trends in the intensity of UV lines. In general, we also find that the primary mass has a strong effect on the P Cygni absorption profiles, the synthetic emission line profiles are strongly sensitive to the wind temperature structure, and an increase in the mass-loss rate enhances the resonance line intensities. Synthetic spectra were compared with UV data for two high orbital inclination nova-like CVs-RW Tri and V347 Pup. We needed to include disk regions with arbitrary enhanced mass loss to reproduce reasonably well widths and line profiles. This fact and a lack of flux in some high ionization lines may be the signature of the presence of density-enhanced regions in the wind, or alternatively, may result from inadequacies in some of our simplifying assumptions.