Strategic Behavior in Day-Ahead and Real-Time Markets for Electricity: Offer Cost or Payment Cost Minimization?

This study compares the procurement cost-minimizing and productive efficiency performance of the auction mechanism used by independent system operators (ISOs) in wholesale electricity auction markets in the U.S. with that of a proposed alternative. The current practice allocates energy contracts as if the auction featured a discriminatory final payment method when, in fact, the markets are uniform price auctions. The proposed alternative explicitly accounts for the market clearing price during the allocation phase. We find that the proposed alternative largely outperforms the current practice on the basis of procurement costs in the context of simple auction markets featuring both day-ahead and real-time auctions and that the procurement cost advantage of the alternative is complete when we simulate the effects of increased competition. We also find that a trade-off between the objectives of procurement cost minimization and productive efficiency emerges in our simple auction markets and persists in the face of increased competition.

Analysis of Synthetic Diamond Wafer Interferograms Using a Parallelized Simulated Annealing Algorithm

Diamonds are known for both their beauty and their durability. Jefferson National Lab in Newport News, VA has found a way to utilize the diamond's strength to view the beauty of the inside of the atomic nucleus with the hopes of finding exotic forms of matter. By firing very fast electrons at a diamond sheet no thicker than a human hair, high energy particles of light known as photons are produced with a high degree of polarization that can illuminate the constituents of the nucleus known as quarks. The University of Connecticut Nuclear Physics group has responsibility for crafting these extremely thin, high quality diamond wafers. These wafers must be cut from larger stones that are about the size of a human finger, and then carefully machined down to the final thickness. The thinning of these diamonds is extremely challenging, as the diamond's greatest strength also becomes its greatest weakness. The Connecticut Nuclear Physics group has developed a novel technique to assist industrial partners in assessing the quality of the final machining steps, using a technique based on laser interferometry. The images of the diamond surface produced by the interferometer encode the thickness and shape of the diamond surface in a complex way that requires detailed analysis to extract. We have developed a novel software application to analyze these images based on the method of simulated annealing. Being able to image the surface of these diamonds without requiring costly X-ray diffraction measurements allows rapid feedback to the industrial partners as they refine their thinning techniques. Thus, by utilizing a material found to be beautiful by many, the beauty of nature can be brought more clearly into view.

An Experimental Study of Complex-Offer Auctions: Payment Cost Minimization vs. Offer Cost Minimization

A Payment Cost Minimization (PCM) auction has been proposed as an alternative to the Offer Cost Minimization (OCM) auction to be used in wholesale electric power markets with the intention to lower the procurement cost of electricity. Efficiency concerns about this proposal have relied on the assumption of true production cost revelation. Using an experimental approach, I compare the two auctions, strictly controlling for the level of unilateral market power. A specific feature of these complex-offer auctions is that the sellers submit not only the quantities and the minimum prices at which they are willing to sell, but also the start-up fees that are designed to reimburse the fixed start-up costs of the generation plants. I find that both auctions result in start-up fees that are significantly higher than the start-up costs. Overall, the two auctions perform similarly in terms of procurement cost and efficiency. Surprisingly, I do not find a substantial difference between less market power and more market power designs. Both designs result in similar inefficiencies and equally higher procurement costs over the competitive prediction. The PCM auction tends to have lower price volatility than the OCM auction when the market power is minimal but this property vanishes in the designs with market power. These findings lead me to conclude that both the PCM and the OCM auctions do not belong to the class of truth revealing mechanisms and do not easily elicit competitive behavior.

A Simple Statistical Test of Violation of the Weak Axiom of Cost Minimization

A problem with a practical application of Varian.s Weak Axiom of Cost Minimization is that an observed violation may be due to random variation in the output quantities produced by firms rather than due to inefficiency on the part of the firm. In this paper, unlike in Varian (1985), the output rather than the input quantities are treated as random and an alternative statistical test of the violation of WACM is proposed. We assume that there is no technical inefficiency and provide a test of the hypothesis that an observed violation of WACM is merely due to random variations in the output levels of the firms being compared.. We suggest an intuitive approach for specifying a value of the variance of the noise term that is needed for the test. The paper includes an illustrative example utilizing a data set relating to a number of U.S. airlines.

Efficiency in Deregulated Electricity Markets: Offer Cost Minimization vs. Payment Cost Minimization Auction

This study of the wholesale electricity market compares the efficiency performance of the auction mechanism currently in place in U.S. markets with the performance of a proposed mechanism. The analysis highlights the importance of considering strategic behavior when comparing different institutional systems. We find that in concentrated markets, neither auction mechanism can guarantee an efficient allocation. The advantage of the current mechanism increases with increased price competition if market demand is perfectly inelastic. However, if market demand has some responsiveness to price, the superiority of the current auction with respect to efficiency is not that obvious. We present a case where the proposed auction outperforms the current mechanism on efficiency even if all offers reflect true production costs. We also find that a market designer might face a choice problem with a tradeoff between lower electricity cost and production efficiency. Some implications for social welfare are discussed as well.

Fourier Series by Least Square Minimization

An introduction to Fourier Series based on the minimization of the least square error between an approximate series representation and the exact function.

Genome-wide algorithm for detecting CNV associations with diseases

SNP genotyping arrays have been developed to characterize single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and DNA copy number variations (CNVs). The quality of the inferences about copy number can be affected by many factors including batch effects, DNA sample preparation, signal processing, and analytical approach. Nonparametric and model-based statistical algorithms have been developed to detect CNVs from SNP genotyping data. However, these algorithms lack specificity to detect small CNVs due to the high false positive rate when calling CNVs based on the intensity values. Association tests based on detected CNVs therefore lack power even if the CNVs affecting disease risk are common. In this research, by combining an existing Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and the logistic regression model, a new genome-wide logistic regression algorithm was developed to detect CNV associations with diseases. We showed that the new algorithm is more sensitive and can be more powerful in detecting CNV associations with diseases than an existing popular algorithm, especially when the CNV association signal is weak and a limited number of SNPs are located in the CNV.^

EVALUATION OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF ANISOTROPIC ANALYTICAL ALGORITHM IN FLATTENED AND FLATTENING-FILTER-FREE BEAMS FOR HIGH ENERGY LUNG DOSE DELIVERY USING THE RADIOLOGICAL PHYSICS CENTER LUNG PHANTOM

The effectiveness of the Anisotropic Analytical Algorithm (AAA) implemented in the Eclipse treatment planning system (TPS) was evaluated using theRadiologicalPhysicsCenteranthropomorphic lung phantom using both flattened and flattening-filter-free high energy beams. Radiation treatment plans were developed following the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group and theRadiologicalPhysicsCenterguidelines for lung treatment using Stereotactic Radiation Body Therapy. The tumor was covered such that at least 95% of Planning Target Volume (PTV) received 100% of the prescribed dose while ensuring that normal tissue constraints were followed as well. Calculated doses were exported from the Eclipse TPS and compared with the experimental data as measured using thermoluminescence detectors (TLD) and radiochromic films that were placed inside the phantom. The results demonstrate that the AAA superposition-convolution algorithm is able to calculate SBRT treatment plans with all clinically used photon beams in the range from 6 MV to 18 MV. The measured dose distribution showed a good agreement with the calculated distribution using clinically acceptable criteria of ±5% dose or 3mm distance to agreement. These results show that in a heterogeneous environment a 3D pencil beam superposition-convolution algorithms with Monte Carlo pre-calculated scatter kernels, such as AAA, are able to reliably calculate dose, accounting for increased lateral scattering due to the loss of electronic equilibrium in low density medium. The data for high energy plans (15 MV and 18 MV) showed very good tumor coverage in contrast to findings by other investigators for less sophisticated dose calculation algorithms, which demonstrated less than expected tumor doses and generally worse tumor coverage for high energy plans compared to 6MV plans. This demonstrates that the modern superposition-convolution AAA algorithm is a significant improvement over previous algorithms and is able to calculate doses accurately for SBRT treatment plans in the highly heterogeneous environment of the thorax for both lower (≤12 MV) and higher (greater than 12 MV) beam energies.

Pathway Semantics: An Algebraic Data Driven Algorithm to Generate Hypotheses about Molecular Patterns Underlying Disease Progression

The overarching goal of the Pathway Semantics Algorithm (PSA) is to improve the in silico identification of clinically useful hypotheses about molecular patterns in disease progression. By framing biomedical questions within a variety of matrix representations, PSA has the flexibility to analyze combined quantitative and qualitative data over a wide range of stratifications. The resulting hypothetical answers can then move to in vitro and in vivo verification, research assay optimization, clinical validation, and commercialization. Herein PSA is shown to generate novel hypotheses about the significant biological pathways in two disease domains: shock / trauma and hemophilia A, and validated experimentally in the latter. The PSA matrix algebra approach identified differential molecular patterns in biological networks over time and outcome that would not be easily found through direct assays, literature or database searches. In this dissertation, Chapter 1 provides a broad overview of the background and motivation for the study, followed by Chapter 2 with a literature review of relevant computational methods. Chapters 3 and 4 describe PSA for node and edge analysis respectively, and apply the method to disease progression in shock / trauma. Chapter 5 demonstrates the application of PSA to hemophilia A and the validation with experimental results. The work is summarized in Chapter 6, followed by extensive references and an Appendix with additional material.

Pencil -beam redefinition algorithm dose calculations for electron therapy treatment planning

The electron pencil-beam redefinition algorithm (PBRA) of Shiu and Hogstrom has been developed for use in radiotherapy treatment planning (RTP). Earlier studies of Boyd and Hogstrom showed that the PBRA lacked an adequate incident beam model, that PBRA might require improved electron physics, and that no data existed which allowed adequate assessment of the PBRA-calculated dose accuracy in a heterogeneous medium such as one presented by patient anatomy. The hypothesis of this research was that by addressing the above issues the PBRA-calculated dose would be accurate to within 4% or 2 mm in regions of high dose gradients. A secondary electron source was added to the PBRA to account for collimation-scattered electrons in the incident beam. Parameters of the dual-source model were determined from a minimal data set to allow ease of beam commissioning. Comparisons with measured data showed 3% or better dose accuracy in water within the field for cases where 4% accuracy was not previously achievable. A measured data set was developed that allowed an evaluation of PBRA in regions distal to localized heterogeneities. Geometries in the data set included irregular surfaces and high- and low-density internal heterogeneities. The data was estimated to have 1% precision and 2% agreement with accurate, benchmarked Monte Carlo (MC) code. PBRA electron transport was enhanced by modeling local pencil beam divergence. This required fundamental changes to the mathematics of electron transport (divPBRA). Evaluation of divPBRA with the measured data set showed marginal improvement in dose accuracy when compared to PBRA; however, 4% or 2mm accuracy was not achieved by either PBRA version for all data points. Finally, PBRA was evaluated clinically by comparing PBRA- and MC-calculated dose distributions using site-specific patient RTP data. Results show PBRA did not agree with MC to within 4% or 2mm in a small fraction (<3%) of the irradiated volume. Although the hypothesis of the research was shown to be false, the minor dose inaccuracies should have little or no impact on RTP decisions or patient outcome. Therefore, given ease of beam commissioning, documentation of accuracy, and calculational speed, the PBRA should be considered a practical tool for clinical use. ^