Erosion and channel change as factors of landslides and valley formation in Champlain sea clays: The Chacoura river, Quebec, Canada

The Champlain Sea clays of Eastern Canada are incised by numerous rivers. Their slopes have been modified by landslides: on the Chacoura River near Trois-Rivières (Quebec), several large landslide scars, more or less recent, are visible. The role of erosion (channel incision, lateral channel migration and erosion of slopes due to agricultural drainage) as a trigger of these landslides is important. The aim of this study is to understand how erosion and landslides are related to valley development. From a detailed analysis of aerial photographs and DEMs, a map of the phenomena has been drawn by identifying various elements such as landslides, limits of the slope, position of the channel, and the area covered by forest. It is shown that channel change and erosion are strongly linked to landslides by the fact that they change the bank morphology in an unstable way. A slide in itself is a natural way for the slope to achieve stability. But when it occurs in a stream, it creates a disturbance to the stream flow enhancing local erosion which may change the river path and generate more erosion downstream or upstream resulting in more slides. Cross-valley sections and a longitudinal profile show that landslides are a major factor of valley formation. It appears that the upper part of the Chacoura River valley is still unaffected by landslides and has V-shaped sections. The lower part has been subject to intense erosion and many landslide scars can be seen. This shows that the valley morphology is transient, and that future activity is more likely to occur in the upper part of the river. Therefore the identification of areas prone to erosion will help determine the possible location of future large landslides just like the ones that occurred in the lower part.

Risk analysis of climate change on coffee nematodes and leaf miner in Brazil

The objective of this work was to assess the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of coffee nematodes (races of Meloidogyne incognita) and leaf miner (Leucoptera coffeella), using a Geographic Information System. Assessment of the impacts of climate change on pest infestations and disease epidemics in crops is needed as a basis for revising management practices to minimize crop losses as climatic conditions shift. Future scenarios focused on the decades of the 2020's, 2050's, and 2080's (scenarios A2 and B2) were obtained from five General Circulation Models available on Data Distribution Centre from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geographic distribution maps were prepared using models to predict the number of generations of the nematodes and leaf miner. Maps obtained in scenario A2 allowed prediction of an increased infestation of the nematode and of the pest, due to greater number of generations per month, than occurred under the climatological normal from 1961-1990. The number of generations also increased in the B2 scenario, but was lower than in the A2 scenario for both organisms.

Uncovering the genetic basis of adaptive change: on the intersection of landscape genomics and theoretical population genetics

A workshop recently held at the Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL, Switzerland) was dedicated to understanding the genetic basis of adaptive change, taking stock of the different approaches developed in theoretical population genetics and landscape genomics and bringing together knowledge accumulated in both research fields. Indeed, an important challenge in theoretical population genetics is to incorporate effects of demographic history and population structure. But important design problems (e.g. focus on populations as units, focus on hard selective sweeps, no hypothesis-based framework in the design of the statistical tests) reduce their capability of detecting adaptive genetic variation. In parallel, landscape genomics offers a solution to several of these problems and provides a number of advantages (e.g. fast computation, landscape heterogeneity integration). But the approach makes several implicit assumptions that should be carefully considered (e.g. selection has had enough time to create a functional relationship between the allele distribution and the environmental variable, or this functional relationship is assumed to be constant). To address the respective strengths and weaknesses mentioned above, the workshop brought together a panel of experts from both disciplines to present their work and discuss the relevance of combining these approaches, possibly resulting in a joint software solution in the future.

Elevation gradient of successful plant traits for colonizing alpine summits under climate change

Upward migration of plant species due to climate change has become evident in several European mountain ranges. It is still, however, unclear whether certain plant traits increase the probability that a species will colonize mountain summits or vanish, and whether these traits differ with elevation. Here, we used data from a repeat survey of the occurrence of plant species on 120 summits, ranging from 2449 to 3418 m asl, in south-eastern Switzerland to identify plant traits that increase the probability of colonization or extinction in the 20th century. Species numbers increased across all plant traits considered. With some traits, however, numbers increased proportionally more. The most successful colonizers seemed to prefer warmer temperatures and well-developed soils. They produced achene fruits and/or seeds with pappus appendages. Conversely, cushion plants and species with capsule fruits were less efficient as colonizers. Observed changes in traits along the elevation gradient mainly corresponded to the natural distribution of traits. Extinctions did not seem to be clearly related to any trait. Our study showed that plant traits varied along both temporal and elevational gradients. While seeds with pappus seemed to be advantageous for colonization, most of the trait changes also mirrored previous gradients of traits along elevation and hence illustrated the general upward migration of plant species. An understanding of the trait characteristics of colonizing species is crucial for predicting future changes in mountain vegetation under climate change.

Genetic diversity in caribou linked to past and future climate change

Climate-driven range fluctuations during the Pleistocene have continuously reshaped species distribution leading to populations of contrasting genetic diversity. Contemporary climate change is similarly influencing species distribution and population structure, with important consequences for patterns of genetic diversity and species' evolutionary potential1. Yet few studies assess the impacts of global climatic changes on intraspecific genetic variation2, 3, 4, 5. Here, combining analyses of molecular data with time series of predicted species distributions and a model of diffusion through time over the past 21 kyr, we unravel caribou response to past and future climate changes across its entire Holarctic distribution. We found that genetic diversity is geographically structured with two main caribou lineages, one originating from and confined to Northeastern America, the other originating from Euro-Beringia but also currently distributed in western North America. Regions that remained climatically stable over the past 21 kyr maintained a high genetic diversity and are also predicted to experience higher climatic stability under future climate change scenarios. Our interdisciplinary approach, combining genetic data and spatial analyses of climatic stability (applicable to virtually any taxon), represents a significant advance in inferring how climate shapes genetic diversity and impacts genetic structure.

Identification of the minimal promoter region of the mouse NKX5-3, a transcription factor implicated in eye development.

Early ocular development is controlled by a complex network of transcription factors, cell cycle regulators, and diffusible signalling molecules. Together, these molecules regulate cell proliferation and apoptosis, and specify retinal fate. NKX5-3 is a homeobox transcription factor implicated in eye development. The analysis of the 5'-flanking region of the mouse Nkx5-3 gene revealed a predicted TATA-less promoter sequence between -416 and -166 of the translation start site. To functionally characterise Nkx5-3 promoter activity, serial deletions of the promoter sequence were introduced in pGL-3 basic vector and promoter activity of these 5'- and 3'-deleted constructions was tested in HeLa and CHO cells. Transactivation assays identified a region between -350 and -296 exhibiting promoter-like activity. Combined analysis by deletions and point mutations showed that this sequence, containing multiple Sp1 binding sites was necessary to promote transcriptional activity. Binding of Sp1 to this region was confirmed by electrophoretic mobility shift assay (EMSA) and chromatin immunoprecipitation, using an antibody specific for Sp1. Altogether, these results demonstrated that the immediate upstream region of Nkx5-3 gene possessed a strong intrinsic promoter activity in vitro, suggesting a potential role in Nkx5-3 transcription in vivo.

Impacts of climate change on Swiss biodiversity: An indicator taxa approach

We present a new indicator taxa approach to the prediction of climate change effects on biodiversity at the national level in Switzerland. As indicators, we select a set of the most widely distributed species that account for 95% of geographical variation in sampled species richness of birds, butterflies, and vascular plants. Species data come from a national program designed to monitor spatial and temporal trends in species richness. We examine some opportunities and limitations in using these data. We develop ecological niche models for the species as functions of both climate and land cover variables. We project these models to the future using climate predictions that correspond to two IPCC 3rd assessment scenarios for the development of 'greenhouse' gas emissions. We find that models that are calibrated with Swiss national monitoring data perform well in 10-fold cross-validation, but can fail to capture the hot-dry end of environmental gradients that constrain some species distributions. Models for indicator species in all three higher taxa predict that climate change will result in turnover in species composition even where there is little net change in predicted species richness. Indicator species from high elevations lose most areas of suitable climate even under the relatively mild B2 scenario. We project some areas to increase in the number of species for which climate conditions are suitable early in the current century, but these areas become less suitable for a majority of species by the end of the century. Selection of indicator species based on rank prevalence results in a set of models that predict observed species richness better than a similar set of species selected based on high rank of model AUC values. An indicator species approach based on selected species that are relatively common may facilitate the use of national monitoring data for predicting climate change effects on the distribution of biodiversity.

Impaired chemical coupling of cerebral blood flow is compatible with intact neurological outcome in neonates with perinatal risk factors.

Early detection of pathophysiological factors associated with permanent brain damage is a major issue in neonatal medicine. The aim of our study was to evaluate the significance of the CO2 reactivity of cerebral blood flow (CBF) in neonates with perinatal risk factors. Fourteen ventilated neonates with perinatal risk factors (pathological cardiotocogramm, low cord pH, postpartal encephalopathy) were enrolled into this prospective study. The study was performed 18-123 h after birth. CBF was measured using the noninvasive intravenous 133Xe method. Two measurements were taken with a minimal PaCO2-difference of 5 mm Hg. From the two CBF values the CO2 reactivity was calculated. Outcome was evaluated 1 year after birth. The CBF values at a lower PaCO2 ranged from 6.6 to 115. 2 ml/100 g brain issue/min (median = 18.2) and at a higher PaCO2 level from 7.1 to 125.7 ml/100 g brain tissue/min (median = 18.75). The calculated CO2 reactivity ranged from -9.6 to 6.6% (median 1.1%) change in CBF/mm Hg change in PaCO2. CO2 reactivity correlated with lowest pH (r2 = 0.35, p = 0.02). Two infants died, one of neonatal sepsis, the other of heart failure. Neurological outcome at the age of 1 year was normal in 11 patients, 1 had severe cerebral palsy. From the 12 surviving patients the patient with severe neurological deficit showed the highest CBF values (125.7 ml/100 g/min). Impaired chemical coupling of cerebral blood flow is compatible with intact neurological outcome in neonates with perinatal risk factors. CO2 reactivity in these newborns correlates with the lowest pH and may reflect the severity of perinatal asphyxia.

Remote Sensing Change Analysis Methodology to Support Traffic Monitoring Programs, 2003

The Federal Highway Administration mandates that states collect traffic count information at specified intervals to meet the needs of the Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS). A manual land use change detection method was employed to determine the effects of land use change on traffic for Black Hawk County, Iowa, from 1994 to 2002. Results from land use change detection could enable redirecting traffic count activities and related data management resources to areas that are experiencing the greatest changes in land use and related traffic volume. Including a manual land use change detection process in the Iowa Department of Transportation’s traffic count program has the potential to improve efficiency by focusing monitoring activities in areas more likely to experience significant increase in traffic.

Remote Sensing Change Analysis Methodology to Support Traffic Monitoring Programs: Phase 2, 2004

The Center for Transportation Research and Education (CTRE) issued a report in July 2003, based on a sample study of the application of remote sensed image land use change detection to the methodology of traffic monitoring in Blackhawk County, Iowa. In summary, the results indicated a strong correlation and a statistically significant regression coefficient between the identification of built-up land use change areas from remote sensed data and corresponding changes in traffic patterns, expressed as vehicle miles traveled (VMT). Based on these results, the Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) requested that CTRE expand the study area to five counties in the southwest quadrant of the state. These counties are scheduled for traffic counts in 2004, and the Iowa DOT desired the data to 1) evaluate the current methodology used to place the devices; 2) potentially influence the placement of traffic counting devices in areas of high built-up land use change; and 3) determine if opportunities exist to reduce the frequency and/or density of monitoring activity in lower trafficked rural areas of the state. This project is focused on the practical application of built-up land use change data for placement of traffic count data recording devices in five southwest Iowa counties.

Predictive Value of Readiness, Importance, and Confidence in Ability to Change Drinking and Smoking

Background: Visual analog scales (VAS) are used to assess readiness to changeconstructs, which are often considered critical for change.Objective: We studied whether 3 constructs -readiness to change, importance of changing and confidence inability to change- predict risk status 6 months later in 20 year-old men with either orboth of two behaviors: risky drinking and smoking. Methods: 577 participants in abrief intervention randomized trial were assessed at baseline and 6 months later onalcohol and tobacco consumption and with three 1-10 VAS (readiness, importance,confidence) for each behavior. For each behavior, we used one regression model foreach constructs. Models controlled for receipt of a brief intervention and used thelowest level (1-4) in each construct as the reference group (vs medium (5-7) and high(8-10) levels).Results: Among the 475 risky drinkers, mean (SD) readiness, importance and confidence to change drinking were 4.0 (3.1), 2.8 (2.2) and 7.2 (3.0).Readiness was not associated with being alcohol-risk free 6 months later (OR 1.3[0.7; 2.2] and 1.4 [0.8; 2.6] for medium and high readiness). High importance andhigh confidence were associated with being risk free (OR 0.9 [0.5; 1.8] and 2.9 [1.2;7.5] for medium and high importance; 2.1 [1.0;4.8] and 2.8 [1.5;5.6] for medium andhigh confidence). Among the 320 smokers, mean readiness, importance andconfidence to change smoking were 4.6 (2.6), 5.3 (2.6) and 5.9 (2.6). Neitherreadiness nor importance were associated with being smoking free (OR 2.1 [0.9; 4.7]and 2.1 [0.8; 5.8] for medium and high readiness; 1.4 [0.6; 3.4] and 2.1 [0.8; 5.4] formedium and high importance). High confidence was associated with being smokingfree (OR 2.2 [0.8;6.6] and 3.4 [1.2;9.8] for medium and high confidence).Conclusions: For drinking and smoking, high confidence in ability to change wasassociated -with similar magnitude- with a favorable outcome. This points to thevalue of confidence as an important predictor of successful change.

The global welfare impact of China: Trade integration and technological change

This paper evaluates the global welfare impact of China's trade integration and technological change in a multi-country quantitative Ricardian-Heckscher-Ohlin model.We simulate two alternative growth scenarios: a "balanced" one in which China's productivity grows at the same rate in each sector, and an "unbalanced" one in whichChina's comparative disadvantage sectors catch up disproportionately faster to theworld productivity frontier. Contrary to a well-known conjecture (Samuelson 2004),the large majority of countries experience significantly larger welfare gains whenChina's productivity growth is biased towards its comparative disadvantage sectors.This finding is driven by the inherently multilateral nature of world trade.

A minimal i-motif stabilized by minor groove G:T:G:T tetrads

The repetitive DNA sequences found at telomeres and centromeres play a crucial role in the structure and function of eukaryotic chromosomes. This role may be related to the tendency observed in many repetitive DNAs to adopt non-canonical structures. Although there is an increasing recognition of the importance of DNA quadruplexes in chromosome biology, the co-existence of different quadruplex-forming elements in the same DNA structure is still a matter of debate. Here we report the structural study of the oligonucleotide d(TCGTTTCGT) and its cyclic analog d. Both sequences form dimeric quadruplex structures consisting of a minimal i-motif capped, at both ends, by a slipped minor groove-aligned G:T:G:T tetrad. These mini i-motifs, which do not exhibit the characteristic CD spectra of other i-motif structures, can be observed at neutral pH, although they are more stable under acidic conditions. This finding is particularly relevant since these oligonucleotide sequences do not contain contiguous cytosines. Importantly, these structures resemble the loop moiety adopted by an 11-nucleotide fragment of the conserved centromeric protein B (CENP-B) box motif, which is the binding site for the CENP-B.