Bayesian change-point analysis in linear regression model with scale mixtures of normal distributions

In this thesis, we consider Bayesian inference on the detection of variance change-point models with scale mixtures of normal (for short SMN) distributions. This class of distributions is symmetric and thick-tailed and includes as special cases: Gaussian, Student-t, contaminated normal, and slash distributions. The proposed models provide greater flexibility to analyze a lot of practical data, which often show heavy-tail and may not satisfy the normal assumption. As to the Bayesian analysis, we specify some prior distributions for the unknown parameters in the variance change-point models with the SMN distributions. Due to the complexity of the joint posterior distribution, we propose an efficient Gibbs-type with Metropolis- Hastings sampling algorithm for posterior Bayesian inference. Thereafter, following the idea of [1], we consider the problems of the single and multiple change-point detections. The performance of the proposed procedures is illustrated and analyzed by simulation studies. A real application to the closing price data of U.S. stock market has been analyzed for illustrative purposes.

INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC, CLIMATE, AND POLICY INDUCED CHANGES OF PHOSPHORUS EXPORT IN THE UNITED STATES LAURENTIAN GREAT LAKES WATERSHEDS

Anthropogenic activities have increased phosphorus (P) loading in tributaries to the Laurentian Great Lakes resulting in eutrophication in small bays to most notably, Lake Erie. Changes to surface water quality from P loading have resulted in billions of dollars in damage and threaten the health of the world’s largest freshwater resource. To understand the factors affecting P delivery with projected increasing urban lands and biofuels expansion, two spatially explicit models were coupled. The coupled models predict that the majority of the basin will experience a significant increase in urban area P sources while the agriculture intensity and forest sources of P will decrease. Changes in P loading across the basin will be highly variable spatially. Additionally, the impacts of climate change on high precipitation events across the Great Lakes were examined. Using historical regression relationships on phosphorus concentrations, key Great Lakes tributaries were found to have future changes including decreasing total loads and increases to high-flow loading events. The urbanized Cuyahoga watersheds exhibits the most vulnerability to these climate-induced changes with increases in total loading and storm loading , while the forested Au Sable watershed exhibits greater resilience. Finally, the monitoring network currently in place for sampling the amount of phosphorus entering the U.S. Great Lakes was examined with a focus on the challenges to monitoring. Based on these interviews, the research identified three issues that policy makers interested in maintaining an effective phosphorus monitoring network in the Great Lakes should consider: first, that the policy objectives driving different monitoring programs vary, which results in different patterns of sampling design and frequency; second, that these differences complicate efforts to encourage collaboration; and third, that methods of funding sampling programs vary from agency to agency, further complicating efforts to generate sufficient long-term data to improve our understanding of phosphorus into the Great Lakes. The dissertation combines these three areas of research to present the potential future impacts of P loading in the Great Lakes as anthropogenic activities, climate and monitoring changes. These manuscripts report new experimental data for future sources, loading and climate impacts on phosphorus.

BIOMASS FUEL-BRIQUETTES AND IMPROVED STOVES IN DINSHO, ETHIOPIA

This report is a study of the development and implementation of a biomass fuel briquette and improved stove project in the highlands of Ethiopia. The primary goal of the project was to determine if the introduction of an improved stove would affect the acceptability of fuel briquettes. The secondary goal was to establish briquette and improved stove manufacturing associations in Dinsho and Rira towns. Two problems encountered during the project were cultural differences in material valuation, and difficulty working with local administrative frameworks and multi-organization communication difficulties. Both briquettes and improved stoves received positive feedback from respondents. Survey data indicated that a price of 0.75 Ethiopian birr per briquette would make them a competitive fuel source against fuelwood. Recommendations for feedstock sourcing and supply, capital investment, labor reduction, estimating cost effectiveness, appropriate technology design, development work setbacks, and valuation paradigms for fuel briquette, improved stove, and development work projects.

The Domestic Natural Gas Shortage in China

This thesis analyzes the domestic shortage in the Chinese natural gas market. Both the domestic supply and demand of natural gas are growing fast in China. However, the supply cannot catch up with the demand. Under the present pricing mechanism, the Chinese natural gas market cannot get the equilibrium by itself. Expensive imports are inadequate to fill the increasing gap between the domestic demand and supply. Therefore, the shortage problem occurs. Since the energy gap can result in the arrested development of economics, the shortage problem need to be solved. This thesis gives three suggestions to solve the problem: the use of Unconventional Gas, Natural Gas Storage and Pricing Reform.

MITEP: REFLECTIVE JOURNEY

This research looks at the use of the Interactive Student Notebook (ISN) in the math classroom and the impact on student achievement as part of the MiTEP program. A reflective critical analysis of the MiTEP program discusses impact on teacher pedagogy, leadership, and connections to people and resources. The purpose of the study stemmed from the lack of student retention, poor organizational skills, and the students’ inability to demonstrate college readiness skills such as how to study, completing homework, and thinking independently. Motivation also stemmed from teacher frustration. The research was conducted at Linden Grove Middle School in Kalamazoo Michigan in a strategic math class. Twenty-two sixth graders, thirty-two seventh graders, and forty eighth graders were part of the study.Students were given the Strategic Math Inventory (SMI) test in week 1 of the class and again at the end of a 12 week marking period. Students participated in an attitude survey to record their feelings about the use of the ISN in the strategic math classroom. The data compared the control group (the previous year’s [2012-2013] growth data) to the experimental group, the current year’s (2013-2014) growth data. Both groups were statistically similar in that the mean average was about a 4th grade level equivalency and the groups had similar numbers of grade level students. The significant findings were in the amount of growth made using the ISN. The control group started with a mean average of 586.6 and ended with a mean average of 697.1, making about one year’s growth from a 4th to a 5th grade level equivalency. The experimental group started with a mean average of 585.2 and ended with a mean average of 744.2, making about two years growth from a 4th to a 6th grade level equivalency. This is double the growth of the control group. The Cohen’s test resulted in a score of 0.311 which describes that the teaching method, the use of the ISN in the math classroom had a medium impact on student growth.

EXPERIMENTAL INVESTIGATION OF CERTAIN INTERNAL CONDENSING AND BOILING FLOWS: THEIR SENSITIVITY TO PRESSURE FLUCTUATIONS AND HEAT TRANSFER ENHANCEMENTS

Space-based (satellite, scientific probe, space station, etc.) and millimeter – to – microscale (such as are used in high power electronics cooling, weapons cooling in aircraft, etc.) condensers and boilers are shear/pressure driven. They are of increasing interest to system engineers for thermal management because flow boilers and flow condensers offer both high fluid flow-rate-specific heat transfer capacity and very low thermal resistance between the fluid and the heat exchange surface, so large amounts of heat may be removed using reasonably-sized devices without the need for excessive temperature differences. However, flow stability issues and degradation of performance of shear/pressure driven condensers and boilers due to non-desirable flow morphology over large portions of their lengths have mostly prevented their use in these applications. This research is part of an ongoing investigation seeking to close the gap between science and engineering by analyzing two key innovations which could help address these problems. First, it is recommended that the condenser and boiler be operated in an innovative flow configuration which provides a non-participating core vapor stream to stabilize the annular flow regime throughout the device length, accomplished in an energy-efficient manner by means of ducted vapor re-circulation. This is demonstrated experimentally. Second, suitable pulsations applied to the vapor entering the condenser or boiler (from the re-circulating vapor stream) greatly reduce the thermal resistance of the already effective annular flow regime. For experiments reported here, application of pulsations increased time-averaged heat-flux up to 900 % at a location within the flow condenser and up to 200 % at a location within the flow boiler, measured at the heat-exchange surface. Traditional fully condensing flows, reported here for comparison purposes, show similar heat-flux enhancements due to imposed pulsations over a range of frequencies. Shear/pressure driven condensing and boiling flow experiments are carried out in horizontal mm-scale channels with heat exchange through the bottom surface. The sides and top of the flow channel are insulated. The fluid is FC-72 from 3M Corporation.

Virus purification, detection and removal

The biopharmaceutical industry has a growing demand and an increasing need to improve the current virus purification technologies, especially as more and more vaccines are produced from cell-culture derived virus particles. Downstream purification strategies can be expensive and account for 70% of the overall manufacturing costs. The economic pressure and purification processes can be particularly challenging when the virus to be purified is small, as in our model virus, porcine parvovirus (PPV). Our efforts are focused on designing an easy, economical, scalable and efficient system for virus purification, and we focused on aqueous two-phase systems. Industry acceptable standards for virus vaccine recovery can be as low as 30% due to demand of high final titer, virus transduction inhibitors and presence of empty or defective virus capsids as impurities. We have overcome these shortcomings by recovering a high 64% of infectious virus using an aqueous two-phase system. We used high molecular weight polymer and citrate salt to achieve a good yield and eliminated the major contaminant bovine serum albumin. Viruses are also studied for ensuring pure and safe drinking water. Low pressure microfiltrations are continuously being investigated for water filters as they allow high permeate flux and low fouling. Viruses such as PPV are small enough to pass through the microporous membranes. Control of viruses in water is crucial for public health and we have designed an affinity based membrane filter to capture virus. Nanofibers have a high surface to volume ratio providing a highly accessible surface area for virus adsorption. Chitosan an insoluble, biocompatible and biodegradable polymer was used for adsorbing trimer peptide WRW. About 0.2 μmoles of cysteine terminal WRW peptide was conjugated to amine terminal chitosan using maleimide conjugation chemistry. We achieved 90-99% virus removal from water adjusted to a neutral pH. The virus removal from affinity based chitosan was attributed to electrostatic and hydrophobic driven binding effect.

Faulted Structures in Li Ion Exchanged NaMO2 (M=Ni(0.25)Mn(0.75))

A family of LiMO2 materials (M=Ni0.25Mn0.75) was prepared from Na1.2-xLixMO∂ precursors (0≤x≤0.6) via ion exchange. The resulting IE products were examined via XRD and compared to simulated XRD patterns produced using DIFFax to determine the defect structures resulting from the IE process. For the 0.1≤x≤0.6 materials, it is observed that there are 3 LiMO2 sub-phases with different Li contents present. As the amount of Li in the precursor increases, the amount of each phase changes resulting in a net shift to higher 2-theta; corresponding to an overall decrease in lattice parameter, approaching the theoretical values for LiMO2. Additionally, as x increases, the probability of O3-type shifting increases, most likely due to an increase in the amount O3-Li2MO3 minority phase which acts to weaken bonds in the TM layer, allowing the O3 shift to occur more easily. For the x=0 IE product, it was seen that the product had an ~O2-type structure, but with lattice parameters closer to those expected for a NaMO2 material.

DEVELOPMENT OF AN IONIC LIQUID FERROFLUID ELECTROSPRAY SOURCE AND MODE SHAPE STUDIES OF A FERROFLUID IN A NON-UNIFORM MAGNETIC FIELD

An electrospray source has been developed using a novel new fluid that is both magnetic and conductive. Unlike conventional electrospray sources that required microfabricated structures to support the fluid to be electrosprayed, this new electrospray fluid utilizes the Rosensweig instability to create the structures in the magnetic fluid when an external magnetic field was applied. Application of an external electric field caused these magnetic fluid structures to spray. These fluid based structures were found to spray at a lower onset voltage than was predicted for electrospray sources with solid structures of similar geometry. These fluid based structures were also found to be resilient to damage, unlike the solid structures found in traditional electrospray sources. Further, experimental studies of magnetic fluids in non-uniform magnetic fields were conducted. The modes of Rosensweig instabilities have been studied in-depth when created by uniform magnetic fields, but little to no studies have been performed on Rosensweig instabilities formed due to non-uniform magnetic fields. The measured spacing of the cone-like structures of ferrofluid, in a non-uniform magnetic field, were found to agree with a proposed theoretical model.

THE IMPACTS OF MITEP ON MY CAREER IN EDUCATION

MiTEP, the Michigan Teacher Excellence Program, provides current teachers the opportunity to partner with Michigan Technological University to obtain graduate credit towards a Master’s degree in applied science education. In exchange, the university collects data on the implementation of inquiry and earth science concepts into science classrooms. This paper documents my experience within this program, including how it has affected my personal and professional learning.

Maximum principle preserving high order schemes for convection-dominated diffusion equations

The maximum principle is an important property of solutions to PDE. Correspondingly, it's of great interest for people to design a high order numerical scheme solving PDE with this property maintained. In this thesis, our particular interest is solving convection-dominated diffusion equation. We first review a nonconventional maximum principle preserving(MPP) high order finite volume(FV) WENO scheme, and then propose a new parametrized MPP high order finite difference(FD) WENO framework, which is generalized from the one solving hyperbolic conservation laws. A formal analysis is presented to show that a third order finite difference scheme with this parametrized MPP flux limiters maintains the third order accuracy without extra CFL constraint when the low order monotone flux is chosen appropriately. Numerical tests in both one and two dimensional cases are performed on the simulation of the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations in vorticity stream-function formulation and several other problems to show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

EXAMINING POLICY CAPACITY INITIATIVES WITHIN CLIMATE CHANGE FRAMEWORKS IN THREE US AND CANADIAN SECTORS USING NVIVO CONTENT ANALYSIS

The climate change narrative has changed from one of mitigation to one of adaptation. Governments around the world have created climate change frameworks which address how the country can better cope with the expected and unexpected changes due to global climate change. In an effort to do so, federal governments of Canada and the United States, as well as some provinces and states within these countries, have created detailed documents which outline what steps must be taken to adapt to these changes. However, not much is mentioned about how these steps will be translated in to policy, and how that policy will eventually be implemented. To examine the ability of governments to acknowledge and incorporate the plethora of scientific information to policy, consideration must be made for policy capacity. This report focuses on three sectors: water supply and demand; drought and flood planning; and forest and grassland ecosystems, and the word ‘capacity’ as related to nine different forms of policy capacity acknowledged in these frameworks. Qualitative content analysis using NVivo was carried out on fifty four frameworks and the results obtained show that there is a greater consideration for managerial capacity compared to analytical or political capacity. The data also indicated that although there were more Canadian frameworks which referred to policy capacity, the frameworks from the United States actually considered policy capacity to a greater degree.

TERPENE AND TERPENOID EMISSIONS AND SECONDARY ORGANIC AEROSOL PRODUCTION

Approximately 90% of fine aerosol in the Midwestern United States has a regional component with a sizable fraction attributed to secondary production of organic aerosol (SOA). The Ozark Forest is an important source of biogenic SOA precursors like isoprene (> 150 mg m-2 d-1), monoterpenes (10-40 mg m-2 d-1), and sesquiterpenes (10-40 mg m-2d-1). Anthropogenic sources include secondary sulfate and nitrate and biomass burning (51-60%), vehicle emissions (17-26%), and industrial emissions (16-18%). Vehicle emissions are an important source of volatile and vapor-phase, semivolatile aliphatic and aromatic hydrocarbons that are important anthropogenic sources of SOA precursors. The short lifetime of SOA precursors and the complex mixture of functionalized oxidation products make rapid sampling, quantitative processing methods, and comprehensive organic molecular analysis essential elements of a comprehensive strategy to advance understanding of SOA formation pathways. Uncertainties in forecasting SOA production on regional scales are large and related to uncertainties in biogenic emission inventories and measurement of SOA yields under ambient conditions. This work presents a bottom-up approach to develop a conifer emission inventory based on foliar and cortical oleoresin composition, development of a model to estimate terpene and terpenoid signatures of foliar and bole emissions from conifers, development of processing and analytic techniques for comprehensive organic molecular characterization of SOA precursors and oxidation products, implementation of the high-volume sampling technique to measure OA and vapor-phase organic matter, and results from a 5 day field experiment conducted to evaluate temporal and diurnal trends in SOA precursors and oxidation products. A total of 98, 115, and 87 terpene and terpenoid species were identified and quantified in commercially available essential oils of Pinus sylvestris, Picea mariana, and Thuja occidentalis, respectively, by comprehensive, two-dimensional gas chromatography with time-of-flight mass spectrometric detection (GC × GC-ToF-MS). Analysis of the literature showed that cortical oleoresin composition was similar to foliar composition of the oldest branches. Our proposed conceptual model for estimation of signatures of terpene and terpenoid emissions from foliar and cortical oleoresin showed that emission potentials of the foliar and bole release pathways are dissimilar and should be considered for conifer species that develop resin blisters or are infested with herbivores or pathogens. Average derivatization efficiencies for Methods 1 and 2 were 87.9 and 114%, respectively. Despite the lower average derivatization efficiency of Method 1, distinct advantages included a greater certainty of derivatization yield for the entire suite of multi- and poly-functional species and fewer processing steps for sequential derivatization. Detection limits for Method 1 using GC × GC- ToF-MS were 0.09-1.89 ng μL-1. A theoretical retention index diagram was developed for a hypothetical GC × 2GC analysis of the complex mixture of SOA precursors and derivatized oxidation products. In general, species eluted (relative to the alkyl diester reference compounds) from the primary column (DB-210) in bands according to n and from the secondary columns (BPX90, SolGel-WAX) according to functionality, essentially making the GC × 2GC retention diagram a Carbon number-functionality grid. The species clustered into 35 groups by functionality and species within each group exhibited good separation by n. Average recoveries of n-alkanes and polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) by Soxhlet extraction of XAD-2 resin with dichloromethane were 80.1 ± 16.1 and 76.1 ± 17.5%, respectively. Vehicle emissions were the common source for HSVOCs [i.e., resolved alkanes, the unresolved complex mixture (UCM), alkylbenzenes, and 2- and 3-ring PAHs]. An absence of monoterpenes at 0600-1000 and high concentrations of monoterpenoids during the same period was indicative of substantial losses of monoterpenes overnight and the early morning hours. Post-collection, comprehensive organic molecular characterization of SOA precursors and products by GC × GC-ToFMS in ambient air collected with ~2 hr resolution is a promising method for determining biogenic and anthropogenic SOA yields that can be used to evaluate SOA formation models.

Automatic Food Intake Assessment Using Camera Phones

Obesity is becoming an epidemic phenomenon in most developed countries. The fundamental cause of obesity and overweight is an energy imbalance between calories consumed and calories expended. It is essential to monitor everyday food intake for obesity prevention and management. Existing dietary assessment methods usually require manually recording and recall of food types and portions. Accuracy of the results largely relies on many uncertain factors such as user's memory, food knowledge, and portion estimations. As a result, the accuracy is often compromised. Accurate and convenient dietary assessment methods are still blank and needed in both population and research societies. In this thesis, an automatic food intake assessment method using cameras, inertial measurement units (IMUs) on smart phones was developed to help people foster a healthy life style. With this method, users use their smart phones before and after a meal to capture images or videos around the meal. The smart phone will recognize food items and calculate the volume of the food consumed and provide the results to users. The technical objective is to explore the feasibility of image based food recognition and image based volume estimation. This thesis comprises five publications that address four specific goals of this work: (1) to develop a prototype system with existing methods to review the literature methods, find their drawbacks and explore the feasibility to develop novel methods; (2) based on the prototype system, to investigate new food classification methods to improve the recognition accuracy to a field application level; (3) to design indexing methods for large-scale image database to facilitate the development of new food image recognition and retrieval algorithms; (4) to develop novel convenient and accurate food volume estimation methods using only smart phones with cameras and IMUs. A prototype system was implemented to review existing methods. Image feature detector and descriptor were developed and a nearest neighbor classifier were implemented to classify food items. A reedit card marker method was introduced for metric scale 3D reconstruction and volume calculation. To increase recognition accuracy, novel multi-view food recognition algorithms were developed to recognize regular shape food items. To further increase the accuracy and make the algorithm applicable to arbitrary food items, new food features, new classifiers were designed. The efficiency of the algorithm was increased by means of developing novel image indexing method in large-scale image database. Finally, the volume calculation was enhanced through reducing the marker and introducing IMUs. Sensor fusion technique to combine measurements from cameras and IMUs were explored to infer the metric scale of the 3D model as well as reduce noises from these sensors.

Carbon in the Peatlands in the Great Lakes Region

Peatlands cover only ~3% of the global land area, but store ~30% of the worlds' soil carbon. There are many different peat types that store different amounts of carbon. Most inventories of carbon storage in northern peatlands have been conducted in the expansive Sphagnum dominated peatlands. Although, northern white cedar peatlands (NW cedar, Thuja occidentalis L.) are also one of the most common peatland types in the Great Lakes Region, occupying more than 2 million hectares. NW cedar swamps are understudied, due in part to the difficulties in collection methods. General lack of rapid and consistent sampling methods has also contributed in a lack of carbon stock quantification for many peatlands. The main objective of this thesis is to quantify: 1) to evaluate peat sampling methods 2) the amount of C-stored and the rates of long-term carbon accumulation in NW cedar peatlands. We sampled 38 peatlands separated into four categories (black ash, NW cedar swamp, sedge, and Sphagnum) during the summers of 2011/2012 across northern MN and the Upper Peninsula of MI. Basal dates of peat indicate that cedar peatlands were between 1970-7790 years old. Cedar peatlands are generally shallower than Sphagnum peat, but due to their higher bulk density, hold similar amounts of carbon with our sites averaging ~800 MgC ha-1. We estimate that NW cedar peatlands store over 1.7 Gt of carbon in the Great Lakes Region. Each of the six methods evaluated had a different level of accuracy and requires varying levels of effort and resources. The depth only method and intermittent sampling method were the most accurate methods of peatland sampling.