Design and analysis of climate model experiments for the efficient estimation of anthropogenic signals

Presented herein is an experimental design that allows the effects of several radiative forcing factors on climate to be estimated as precisely as possible from a limited suite of atmosphere-only general circulation model (GCM) integrations. The forcings include the combined effect of observed changes in sea surface temperatures, sea ice extent, stratospheric (volcanic) aerosols, and solar output, plus the individual effects of several anthropogenic forcings. A single linear statistical model is used to estimate the forcing effects, each of which is represented by its global mean radiative forcing. The strong colinearity in time between the various anthropogenic forcings provides a technical problem that is overcome through the design of the experiment. This design uses every combination of anthropogenic forcing rather than having a few highly replicated ensembles, which is more commonly used in climate studies. Not only is this design highly efficient for a given number of integrations, but it also allows the estimation of (nonadditive) interactions between pairs of anthropogenic forcings. The simulated land surface air temperature changes since 1871 have been analyzed. The changes in natural and oceanic forcing, which itself contains some forcing from anthropogenic and natural influences, have the most influence. For the global mean, increasing greenhouse gases and the indirect aerosol effect had the largest anthropogenic effects. It was also found that an interaction between these two anthropogenic effects in the atmosphere-only GCM exists. This interaction is similar in magnitude to the individual effects of changing tropospheric and stratospheric ozone concentrations or to the direct (sulfate) aerosol effect. Various diagnostics are used to evaluate the fit of the statistical model. For the global mean, this shows that the land temperature response is proportional to the global mean radiative forcing, reinforcing the use of radiative forcing as a measure of climate change. The diagnostic tests also show that the linear model was suitable for analyses of land surface air temperature at each GCM grid point. Therefore, the linear model provides precise estimates of the space time signals for all forcing factors under consideration. For simulated 50-hPa temperatures, results show that tropospheric ozone increases have contributed to stratospheric cooling over the twentieth century almost as much as changes in well-mixed greenhouse gases.

Some transition metal complexes derived from mono- and di-ethynyl perfluorobenzenes

Transition metal alkynyl complexes containing perfluoroaryl groups have been prepared directly from trimethylsilyl-protected mono- and di-ethynyl perfluoroarenes by simple desilylation/metallation reaction sequences. Reactions between Me3SiC CC6F5 and RuCl(dppe)Cp'[Cp' = Cp, Cp*] in the presence of KF in MeOH give the monoruthenium complexes Ru(C CC6F5)(dppe)Cp'[Cp' = Cp (2); Cp* (3)], which are related to the known compound Ru(C CC6F5)(PPh3)(2)Cp (1). Treatment of Me3SiC CC6F5 with Pt-2(mu-dppm)(2)Cl-2 in the presence of NaOMe in MeOH gave the bis(alkynyl) complex Pt-2(mu-dppm)(2)(C CC6F5)(2) (4). The Pd(0)/Cu(I)-catalysed reactions between Au(C CC6F5)(PPh3) and Mo( CBr)(CO)(2) Tp* [Tp* = hydridotris(3.5-dimethylpyrazoyl)borate], Co-3(mu(3)-CBr)(mu-dppm)(CO)(7) or IC CFc [Fc = (eta(5)-C5H4)FeCp] afford Mo( CC CC6F5)(CO)(2)Tp* (5), Co-3(mu 3-CC CC6F5)(mu-dppm)(CO)(7) (6) and FcC CC CC6F5 (7), respectively. The diruthenium complexes 1,4-{Cp'(PP)RuC C}(2)C6F4 [(PP)Cp'=(PPh3)(2)Cp (8); (dppe)Cp (9); (dppe)Cp* (10)] are prepared from 1,4-(Me3SiC C)(2)C6F4 in a manner similar to that described for the monoruthenium complexes 1-3. The non-fluorinated complexes 1,4-{Cp'(PP)RuC C}(2)C6H4 [(PP)Cp' = (PPh3)(2)Cp (11); ( dppe) Cp (12); ( dppe) Cp* (13)], prepared for comparison, are obtained from 1,4-(Me3SiC C)(2)C6H4. Spectro-electrochemical studies of the ruthenium aryl and arylene alkynyl complexes 2-3 and 8-13, together with DFT-based computational studies on suitable model systems, indicate that perfluorination of the aromatic ring has little effect on the electronic structures of these compounds, and that the frontier orbitals have appreciable diethynylphenylene character. Molecular structure determinations are reported for the fluoroaromatic complexes 1, 2, 3, 6 and 10.

Deprotection, tethering, and activation of a one-legged metalloporphyrin on a chemically active metal surface: NEXAFS, Synchrotron XPS, and STM study of [SAc]P-Mn(III)Cl on Ag(100)

The structural and reactive properties of the acetyl-protected "one-legged" manganese porphyrin [SAc]P-Mn(III)Cl on Ag(100) have been studied by NEXAFS, synchrotron XPS and STM Spontaneous surface-mediated deprotection occurs at 300 K accompanied by spreading of the resulting thio-tethered porphyrin across the metal surface Loss of the axial chlorine ligand occurs at 498 K, without any demetalation of the macrocycle, leaving the Mn center in a low co-ordination state At low coverages the macrocycle is markedly tilted toward the silver surface, as is the phenyl group that forms part of the tethering "leg". In the monolayer region a striking transition occurs whereby the molecule rolls over, preserving the tilt angle of the phenyl group, strongly increasing that of the macrocycle, decreasing the apparent height of the molecule and decreasing its footprint, thus enabling closer packing These findings are in marked contrast with those previously reported for the corresponding more rigidly bound four-legged porphyrin [Turner, M., Vaughan, O. P. H., Kyriakou, G., Watson, D. J., Scherer, L. J; Davidson, G J. E, Sanders, J. K. M.; Lambert, R. M J. Am. Chem Soc 2009, 131, 1910] suggesting that the physicochemical :)properties and potential applications of these versatile systems should be strongly dependent on the mode of tethering to the surface.

Making sense of supply chain management: acomparative study of aerospace and construction

Current recipes for learning across business sectors too often fail to recognize the embedded and contextual nature of management practice. The existing literature gives little emphasis to the symbiotic relationship between supply chain management and the broader dynamics of context. The aerospace and construction sectors are selected for comparison on the basis that they are so different. The UK aerospace sector has undergone extensive consolidation as a result of the imperatives of global competitive pressures. In contrast, the construction industry has experienced decades of fragmentation and remains highly localized. An increasing proportion of output in the aerospace sector occurs within a small number of large, globally orientated firms. In contrast, construction output is dominated by a plethora of small firms with high levels of subcontracting and a widespread reliance on self-employment. These differences have fundamental implications for the way that supply chain management is understood and implemented in the two sectors. Semi-structured interviews with practitioners from both sectors support the contention that supply chain management is more established in aerospace than construction. The introduction of prime contracting and the increasing use of framework agreements within the construction sector potentially provide a much more supportive climate for supply chain management than has traditionally prevailed. However, progress depends upon an improved continuity of workload under such arrangements.

Learning across business sectors: Knowledge sharing between aerospace and construction

This report addresses the extent that managerial practices can be shared between the aerospace and construction sectors. Current recipes for learning from other industries tend to be oversimplistic and often fail to recognise the embedded and contextual nature of managerial knowledge. Knowledge sharing between business sectors is best understood as an essential source of innovation. The process of comparison challenges assumptions and better equips managers to cope with future change. Comparisons between the aerospace and construction sectors are especially useful because they are so different. The two sectors differ hugely in terms of their institutional context, structure and technological intensity. The aerospace sector has experienced extensive consolidation and is dominated by a small number of global companies. Aerospace companies operate within complex networks of global interdependency such that collaborative working is a commercial imperative. In contrast, the construction sector remains highly fragmented and is characterised by a continued reliance on small firms. The vast majority of construction firms compete within localised markets that are too often characterised by opportunistic behaviour. Comparing construction to aerospace highlights the unique characteristics of both sectors and helps explain how managerial practices are mediated by context. Detailed comparisons between the two sectors are made in a range of areas and guidance is provided for the implementation of knowledge sharing strategies within and across organisations. The commonly accepted notion of ‘best practice’ is exposed as a myth. Indeed, universal models of best practice can be detrimental to performance by deflecting from the need to adapt continuously to changing circumstances. Competitiveness in the construction sector too often rests on efficiency in managing contracts, with a particular emphasis on the allocation of risk. Innovation in construction tends to be problem-driven and is rarely shared from project to project. In aerospace, the dominant model of competitiveness means that firms have little choice other than to invest in continuous innovation, despite difficult trading conditions. Research and development (R&D) expenditure in aerospace continues to rise as a percentage of turnovers. A sustained capacity for innovation within the aerospace sector depends crucially upon stability and continuity of work. In the construction sector, the emergence of the ‘hollowed-out’ firm has undermined the industry’s capacity for innovation. Integrated procurement contexts such as prime contracting in construction potentially provide a more supportive climate for an innovation-based model of competitiveness. However, investment in new ways of working depends upon a shift in thinking not only amongst construction contractors, but also amongst the industry’s major clients.