Does the Term Spread play a role in the FED's reaction function? An Empirical Investigation

Using US data for the period 1967:5-2002:4, this paper empirically investigates the performance of a Fed’s reaction function (FRF) that (i) allows for the presence of switching regimes, (ii) considers the long-short term spread in addition to the typical variables, (iii) uses an alternative monthly indicator of general economic activity suggested by Stock and Watson (1999), and (iv) considers interest rate smoothing. The estimation results show the existence of three switching regimes, two characterized by low volatility and the remaining regime by high volatility. Moreover, the scale of the responses of the Federal funds rate to movements in the rate of inflation and the economic activity index depends on the regime. The estimation results also show robust empirical evidence that the importance of the term spread in the FRF has increased over the sample period and the FRF has been more stable during the term of office of Chairman Greenspan than in the pre-Greenspan period.

The role of the term spread in an augmented Taylor rule: An empirical investigation

Using US data for the period 1967:5-2002:4, this paper empirically investigates the performance of an augmented version of the Taylor rule (ATR) that (i) allows for the presence of switching regimes, (ii) considers the long-short term spread in addition to the typical variables, (iii) uses an alternative monthly indicator of general economic activity suggested by Stock and Watson (1999), and (iv) considers interest rate smoothing. The estimation results show the existence of switching regimes, one characterized by low volatility and the other by high volatility. Moreover, the scale of the responses of the Federal funds rate to movements in the term spread, inflation and the economic activity index depend on the regime. The estimation results also show robust empirical evidence that the ATR has been more stable during the term of office of Chairman Greenspan than in the pre-Greenspan period. However, a closer look at the Greenspan period shows the existence of two alternative regimes and that the response of the Fed funds rate to inflation has not been significant during this period once the term spread is considered.

快速Delaunay逐点插入网格生成算法

对插入形心的Delaunay逐点插入算法,提出按单元可插度分组的双向链表组数据结构,避免了对最大可插度单元的搜索。采用了邻接单元搜索、双向链表存储、随机方向搜索、邻接旋转、几何量继承等技术,使算法的计算时间与生成单元数近似呈线性关系,时间复杂度达到O(N1.05),N为生成单元数。算例表明,在一台AMD Athlon3200+(主频2.0 GHz)PC上,该算法的四面体单元生成速度达50 000个/s以上。

Identification of a biomarker panel for colorectal cancer diagnosis

Background: Malignancies arising in the large bowel cause the second largest number of deaths from cancer in the Western World. Despite progresses made during the last decades, colorectal cancer remains one of the most frequent and deadly neoplasias in the western countries. Methods: A genomic study of human colorectal cancer has been carried out on a total of 31 tumoral samples, corresponding to different stages of the disease, and 33 non-tumoral samples. The study was carried out by hybridisation of the tumour samples against a reference pool of non-tumoral samples using Agilent Human 1A 60- mer oligo microarrays. The results obtained were validated by qRT-PCR. In the subsequent bioinformatics analysis, gene networks by means of Bayesian classifiers, variable selection and bootstrap resampling were built. The consensus among all the induced models produced a hierarchy of dependences and, thus, of variables. Results: After an exhaustive process of pre-processing to ensure data quality–lost values imputation, probes quality, data smoothing and intraclass variability filtering–the final dataset comprised a total of 8, 104 probes. Next, a supervised classification approach and data analysis was carried out to obtain the most relevant genes. Two of them are directly involved in cancer progression and in particular in colorectal cancer. Finally, a supervised classifier was induced to classify new unseen samples. Conclusions: We have developed a tentative model for the diagnosis of colorectal cancer based on a biomarker panel. Our results indicate that the gene profile described herein can discriminate between non-cancerous and cancerous samples with 94.45% accuracy using different supervised classifiers (AUC values in the range of 0.997 and 0.955).

Water quality impacts of mechanical shredding of aquatic macrophytes

We examined the impacts of mechanical shredding (i.e.. shredding plants and leaving biomass in the system) of the water chestnut (Trapa natans) on water quality and nutrient mobilization in a control and experimental site in Lake Champlain (Vermont-New York). A 1-ha plot was mechanically shredded within 1 h on 26 July, 1999. Broken plant material was initially concentrated on the lake surface of the experimental station after shredding, and was noticeable on the lake surface for 19 d. Over a two week period after shredding. concentrations of total nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), and soluble reactive P increased in the lower water column of the experimental station, coinciding with decomposition of water chestnut. Sediments in the control and experimental stations exhibited vet-v low rates of N and P release and could not account for increases in nutrient concentrations in the water column after mechanical shredding. Shredded plant material deployed in mesh bags at the experimental station lost similar to 70% of their total mass, and 42%, N and 70% P within 14 d. indicating Substantial nutrient mobilization via autolysis and decomposition. Chlorophyll a concentrations increased to 35 g/L at the experimental station on day 7 after shredding, compared to a concentration of 4 g/L at the control station. suggesting uptake of mobilized nutrients by phytoplankton. Disruption Of the Surface canopy of water chestnut by shredding was associated with marked increases in turbidity and dissolved oxygen, suggesting increased mixing at the experimental site.

Influence of Dilute Acetic Acid Treatments on Survival of Monoecious Hydrilla Tubers in the Oregon House Canal, California

Hydrilla (Hydrilla verticillata (L.f.)Royle), a serious aquatic weed, reproduces through formation of underground tubers. To date, attacking this life-cycle stage has been problematic. The purpose of this study was to measure the impact of exposure to dilute acetic acid on monoecious hydrilla tubers under field conditions. In this field experiment, treatments were acetic acid concentration (0, 2.5, or 5%) and sediment condition (perforated or not perforated). Each of 60, 1x1 m plots (in the Oregon House Canal) were randomly assigned to one treatment. Two weeks after treatment, we collected three samples from each plot. One was washed over 2 mm wire mesh screens to separate tubers from sediment. Relative electrolyte leakage was measured for one tuber from each plot. Five additional tubers from each plot were placed in a growth chamber and sprouting monitored for four weeks. A second sample from each plot was placed in a plastic tub and placed in an outdoor tank, filled with water. These samples were monitored for tuber sprouting. Relative electrolyte leakage increased significantly for tubers exposed to 2.5% or 5% acetic acid. Effects on tubers in perforated sediment were reduced. Exposure to acetic acid inhibited tuber sprouting by 80 to 100%, in both chamber and outdoor tests. These results confirm findings from earlier laboratory/greenhouse experiments, and suggest that this approach may be useful in the management of hydrilla tuber banks in habitats where the water level can be lowered to expose the sediments.

Numerical Simulation of R-M Instability

In order to capture shock waves and contact discontinuities in the field and easy to program with parallel computation a new algorithm is developed to solve the N-S equations for simulation of R-M instability problems. The method with group velocity control is used to suppress numerical oscillations, and an adaptive non-uniform mesh is used to get fine resolution. Numerical results for cylindrical shock-cylindrical interface interaction with a shock Mach number Ms=1.2 and Atwood number A=0.818, 0.961, 0.980 (the interior density of the interface/outer density p(1)/p(2) = 10, 50, 100, respectively), and for the planar shock-spherical interface interaction with Ms=1.2 and p(1)/p(2) = 14.28are presented. The effect of Atwood number and multi-mode initial perturbation on the R-M instability are studied. Multi-collisions of the reflected shock with the interface is a main reason of nonlinear development of the interface instability and formation of the spike-bubble structures In simulation with double mode perturbation vortex merging and second instability are found. After second instability the small vortex structures near the interface produced. It is important factor for turbulent mixing.

Catastrophic Rupture Induced Damage Coalescence in Heterogeneous Brittle Media

In heterogeneous brittle media, the evolution of damage is strongly influenced by the multiscale coupling effect. To better understand this effect, we perform a detailed investigation of the damage evolution, with particular attention focused on the catastrophe transition. We use an adaptive multiscale finite-element model (MFEM) to simulate the damage evolution and the catastrophic failure of heterogeneous brittle media. Both plane stress and plane strain cases are investigated for a heterogeneous medium whose initial shear strength follows the Weibull distribution. Damage is induced through the application of the Coulomb failure criterion to each element, and the element mesh is refined where the failure criterion is met. We found that as damage accumulates, there is a stronger and stronger nonlinear increase in stress and the stress redistribution distance. The coupling of the dynamic stress redistribution and the heterogeneity at different scales result in an inverse cascade of damage cluster size, which represents rapid coalescence of damage at the catastrophe transition.

Distribution and abundance of ichthyoplankton in Florida Bay

Ichthyoplankton was sampled at 14 stations with 60 cm bongo nets fitted with 0.333 mm mesh in basins throughout Florida Bay in 1994-1995. In addition, I compared collections made using an epibenthic sled to those made with standard ichthyoplankton bongo nets at four stations during July 1997-November,1999 to determine ifthe two types of gear are complementary. In 1994-1995, in descending order of abundance, Clupeiformes, Gobiidae, Callionymidae, Sciaenidae, Labrisomidae, Soleidae and Blenniidae dominated the ichthyoplankton. Densities of clupeiforms were generally very high (> 100 larvae 100 m-3) or high (10.0 - 99.9 larvae 100 m-3). Gobiid larvae were ubiquitous with highest densities occurring in waters in close proximity to the Gulf of Mexico (109.7 larvae 100 m-3), lowest in two ofthree eastern Florida Bay stations (<1.0 larva 100 m-3). Spotted seatrout, Cynoscion nebulosus, dominated larval sciaenid collections and the only other sciaenid identified to species was the sand seatrout, Cynoscion arenarius. Taxa differed markedly between collections taken by epibenthic sled and standard ichthyoplankton bongo nets. Taxa collected with standard ichthyoplankton gear were those that spawn in Florida Bay and have pelagic larvae (i.e., engraulids and gobiids). Taxa collected with the sled were small resident species that have benthic larvae (i.e., syngnathids and cyprinodonts) or taxa that spawn outside the bay, but use the bay as a nursery area (i.e., gerreids and haemulids). Recently-settled red drum, Sciaenops ocellatus, were collected with the epibenthic sled in November 1999, although juveniles of this important gamefish are rare in the bay.

Benthic sampling program in Biscayne Bay, 1981-1982

The Biscayne Bay Benthic Sampling Program was divided into two phases. In Phase I, sixty sampling stations were established in Biscayne Bay (including Dumfoundling Bay and Card Sound) representing diverse habitats. The stations were visited in the wet season (late fall of 1981) and in the dry season (midwinter of 1982). At each station certain abiotic conditions were measured or estimated. These included depth, sources of freshwater inflow and pollution, bottom characteristics, current direction and speed, surface and bottom temperature, salinity and dissolved oxygen, and water clarity was estimated with a secchi disk. Seagrass blades and macroalgae were counted in a 0.1-m2 grid placed so as to best represent the bottom community within a 50-foot radius. Underwater 35-mm photographs were made of the bottom using flash apparatus. Benthic samples were collected using a petite Ponar dredge. These samples were washed through a 5-mm mesh screen, fixed in formalin in the field, and later sorted and identified by experts to a pre-agreed taxonomic level. During the wet season sampling period, a nonquantitative one-meter wide trawl was made of the epibenthic community. These samples were also washed, fixed, sorted and identified. During the dry season sampling period, sediment cores were collected at each station not located on bare rock. These cores were analyzed for sediment size and organic composition by personnel of the University of Miami. Data resulting from the sampling were entered into a computer. These data were subjected to cluster analyses, Shannon-Weaver diversity analysis, multiple regression analysis of variance and covariance, and factor analysis. In Phase II of the program, fifteen stations were selected from among the sixty of Phase I. These stations were sampled quarterly. At each quarter, five Petite Ponar dredge samples were collected from each station. As in Phase I, observations and measurements, including seagrass blade counts, were made at each station. In Phase II, polychaete specimens collected were given to a separate contractor for analysis to the species level. These analyses included mean, standard deviation, coefficient of dispersion, percent of total, and numeric rank for each organism in each station as well as number of species, Shannon-Weaver taxa diversity, and dominance (the compliment of Simpson's Index) for each station. Multiple regression analysis of variance and covariance, and factor analysis were applied to the data to determine effect of abiotic factors measured at each station. (PDF contains 96 pages)

Codend selection of winter flounder Pseudopleuronectes americanus

Codend selection of winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) in 76-127 mm mesh codends was examined from experiments conducted in Long Island Sound during the spring of 1986-87. The results show a slightly larger size at selection than was found in earlier work as indicated by the selection factor, 2.31 in the present study compared with 2.2 and 2.24 from previous studies. Diamond mesh was found to have a length at 50% retention about 1 cm longer (Lso =22.6 cm), and a selection range (3.4 cm) about 1 cm narrower, than square mesh in 102-mm codends. Tow duration varied from 1 to 2 hours using 114-mm diamond mesh. As has been found in previous studies, tow duration and Lso are positively related, with I-hour tows averaging 24.6 cm and 2-hour tows averaging 26.6 cm. The importance of the slope of the selection curve was examined in yield-per-recruit analyses by comparing knife-edge and stepwise recruitment. In all mesh sizes, stepwise recruitment provides a more conservative estimate of yield in the presence of a minimum size limit. Differences in yield estimates between the two models were generally small (1-7%), except in the largest mesh size, 127 mm, where yield is overestimated by 10% when assuming knife-edge recruitment. (PDF file contains 16 pages.)

Food habits and dietary variability of pelagic nekton off Oregon and Washington, 1979-1984

The food habits of 20 species of pelagic nekton were investigated from collections made with small-mesh purse seines from 1979-84 off Washington and Oregon. Four species (spiny dogfish, Squalus acanthias; soupfin shark, Galeorhinus zyopterus; blue shark, Prionace glauca; and cutthroat trout, Salmo clarki) were mainly piscivorous. Six species (coho salmon, Oncorhynchus kisutch; chinook salmon, O. tshawytscha; black rockfish, Sebastes melanops; yellowtail rockfish, S. f1avidus; sablefish, Anoplopoma fimbria; and jack mackerel, Trachurus symmetricus) consumed both nektonic and planktonic organisms. The remaining species (market squid, Loligo opalescens; American shad, Alosa sapidissima; Pacific herring, Clupea harengus pallasi; northern anchovy, Engraulis mordax; pink salmon, O. gorbuscha; surf smelt, Hypomesus pretiosus; Pacific hake, Merluccius productus; Pacific saury, Cololabis saira; Pacific mackerel, Scomber japonicus; and medusafish, Icichthys lockingtom) were primarily planktonic feeders. There were substantial interannual, seasonal, and geographic variations in the diets of several species due primarily to changes in prey availability. Juvenile salmonids were not commonly consumed by this assemblage of fishes (PDF file contains 36 pages.)

Distribution and relative abundance of pelagic nonsalmonid nekton Off Oregon and Washington, 1979-84

Fifteen fine-mesh (32-mm mesh) pelagic purse seine surveys were conducted between 1979 and 1984 off the Oregon and Washington coasts. Environmental conditions varied greatly among the years sampled, and even within years, due to variability in upwelling conditions and productivity and the effects of a strong El Nino from late 1982 to the middle of 1984. In the 843 sets made, a total of 115,891 specimens from 69 taxa was collected. Most individuals collected belonged to nine dominant taxa. Seasonal and interannual variations in the abundance and distribution patterns of these dominant taxa are presented in detail. A recurrent group analysis delineated four major groupings of nekton. (PDF file contains 91 pages.)

Guidelines for reducing porpoise mortality in tuna purse seining

More than a decade has passed since the passage of the Marine Mammal Protection Act of 1972. During that time the U.S. tuna purse seine neet reduced its incidental porpoise mortality rate more than 10-fold. This was made possible through the development of gear and techniques aimed at reducing the frequency of many low probability events that contribute to the kill. Porpoise are killed by becoming entangled or entrapped in folds and canopies of the net and suffocating. The configuration of the net, both before and during the backdown release procedure, is a major determinant of the number of porpoise killed. Speedboats can be used to tow on the corkllne to prevent net collapse and also to adjust the net configuration to reduce net canopies prior to backdown. Deepening a net can reduce the probability of porpoise being killed by prebackdown net collapse. The effects of environmental conditions and mechanical failures on net configuration can result in high porpoise mortality unless mitigated by skilled vessel maneuvers or prevented by the timely use of speedboats to adjust the net. The backdown procedure is the only means to effectively release captured porpoise from a purse seine. It is also the time during the set when most of the mortality occurs. The use of small mesh safety panels and aprons in the backdown areas of nets reduces porpoise entanglement, and Increases the probability of an effective release. The tie-down points on the net for preparing the backdown channel must be properly located in order to optimize porpoise release. A formula uses the stretched depth of the net to calculate one of these points, making it a simple matter to locate the other. Understanding the dynamics of the backdown procedure permits a thorough troubleshooting of performance, thus preventing the repetition of poorly executed backdowns and thereby reducing mortality. Porpoise that cannot be released must be rescued by hand. A rescuer in a rigidly inflated raft can rescue porpoise effectively at any time during a net set. Hand rescue can make the difference between above average kill and zero kill sets. In all circumstances, the skill and motivation of the captain and his crew are the final determinants in the prevention of incidental porpoise mortality in tuna seining. (PDF file contains 22 pages.)

Auswirkungen von größeren Steertmaschen bei Grundschleppnetzen auf Plattfischfänge in der Nordsee

The present fishing effort regulation for bottom trawls in the North Sea (EU 40/2008) reduces the fishing effort with larger co-dend mesh sizes (> 100 mm mesh opening) to 86 fishing days per year. The aim of this technical measure is the protection of the weak cod stock usually harvested with this mesh opening. By combining the results of our selectivity investigations on plaice during a commercial fishing trip and the samples taken within the frame of the EU data collection regulation (DCR) we could draw conclusions on commercial and non-commercial fish species. When using codend meshes with larger mesh opening the discard was reduced remarkably. In the reference codend with 80 mm mesh opening the undersized bycatch was 47 % of the total catch of plaice, in the experimental codends with 120 mm mesh opening it was only 7 % and with 130 mm mesh opening just 3 %. On the other hand however, the applied mesh openings in the experimental codends let escape marketable plaice to some extent. The loss of catch was assessed on the basis of fish numbers per length class using a length-weight conversion rate from the DCR. The loss by weight of marketable fish with 120 mm codend mesh opening was 18 %, and 28 % with 130 mm codend mesh opening. To assure the protection of young round and flatfish with one general mesh size, a new regulation should prescribe a minimum mesh opening of 120 mm, accompanied by an expansion of the fishing effort.