884 resultados para Mean squared error
Resumo:
Biodiesel is a renewable fuel derived from vegetable oils or animal fats, which can be a total or partial substitute for diesel. Since 2005, this fuel was introduced in the Brazilian energy matrix through Law 11.097 that determines the percentage of biodiesel added to diesel oil as well as monitoring the insertion of this fuel in market. The National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) establish the obligation of adding 7% (v/v) of biodiesel to diesel commercialized in the country, making crucial the analytical control of this content. Therefore, in this study were developed and validated methodologies based on the use of Mid Infrared Spectroscopy (MIR) and Multivariate Calibration by Partial Least Squares (PLS) to quantify the methyl and ethyl biodiesels content of cotton and jatropha in binary blends with diesel at concentration range from 1.00 to 30.00% (v/v), since this is the range specified in standard ABNT NBR 15568. The biodiesels were produced from two routes, using ethanol or methanol, and evaluated according to the parameters: oxidative stability, water content, kinematic viscosity and density, presenting results according to ANP Resolution No. 45/2014. The built PLS models were validated on the basis of ASTM E1655-05 for Infrared Spectroscopy and Multivariate Calibration and ABNT NBR 15568, with satisfactory results due to RMSEP (Root Mean Square Error of Prediction) values below 0.08% (<0.1%), correlation coefficients (R) above 0.9997 and the absence of systematic error (bias). Therefore, the methodologies developed can be a promising alternative in the quality control of this fuel.
Resumo:
The main goal of this work is to determine the true cost incurred by the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland in order to meet their EU renewable electricity targets. The primary all-island of Ireland policy goal is that 40% of electricity will come from renewable sources in 2020. From this it is expected that wind generation on the Irish electricity system will be in the region of 32-37% of total generation. This leads to issues resulting from wind energy being a non-synchronous, unpredictable and variable source of energy use on a scale never seen before for a single synchronous system. If changes are not made to traditional operational practices, the efficient running of the electricity system will be directly affected by these issues in the coming years. Using models of the electricity system for the all-island grid of Ireland, the effects of high wind energy penetration expected to be present in 2020 are examined. These models were developed using a unit commitment, economic dispatch tool called PLEXOS which allows for a detailed representation of the electricity system to be achieved down to individual generator level. These models replicate the true running of the electricity system through use of day-ahead scheduling and semi-relaxed use of these schedules that reflects the Transmission System Operator's of real time decision making on dispatch. In addition, it carefully considers other non-wind priority dispatch generation technologies that have an effect on the overall system. In the models developed, three main issues associated with wind energy integration were selected to be examined in detail to determine the sensitivity of assumptions presented in other studies. These three issues include wind energy's non-synchronous nature, its variability and spatial correlation, and its unpredictability. This leads to an examination of the effects in three areas: the need for system operation constraints required for system security; different onshore to offshore ratios of installed wind energy; and the degrees of accuracy in wind energy forecasting. Each of these areas directly impact the way in which the electricity system is run as they address each of the three issues associated with wind energy stated above, respectively. It is shown that assumptions in these three areas have a large effect on the results in terms of total generation costs, wind curtailment and generator technology type dispatch. In particular accounting for these issues has resulted in wind curtailment being predicted in much larger quantities than had been previously reported. This would have a large effect on wind energy companies because it is already a very low profit margin industry. Results from this work have shown that the relaxation of system operation constraints is crucial to the economic running of the electricity system with large improvements shown in the reduction of wind curtailment and system generation costs. There are clear benefits in having a proportion of the wind installed offshore in Ireland which would help to reduce variability of wind energy generation on the system and therefore reduce wind curtailment. With envisaged future improvements in day-ahead wind forecasting from 8% to 4% mean absolute error, there are potential reductions in wind curtailment system costs and open cycle gas turbine usage. This work illustrates the consequences of assumptions in the areas of system operation constraints, onshore/offshore installed wind capacities and accuracy in wind forecasting to better inform the true costs associated with running Ireland's changing electricity system as it continues to decarbonise into the near future. This work also proposes to illustrate, through the use of Ireland as a case study, the effects that will become ever more prevalent in other synchronous systems as they pursue a path of increasing renewable energy generation.
Resumo:
Magnetic field inhomogeneity results in image artifacts including signal loss, image blurring and distortions, leading to decreased diagnostic accuracy. Conventional multi-coil (MC) shimming method employs both RF coils and shimming coils, whose mutual interference induces a tradeoff between RF signal-to-noise (SNR) ratio and shimming performance. To address this issue, RF coils were integrated with direct-current (DC) shim coils to shim field inhomogeneity while concurrently emitting and receiving RF signal without being blocked by the shim coils. The currents applied to the new coils, termed iPRES (integrated parallel reception, excitation and shimming), were optimized in the numerical simulation to improve the shimming performance. The objectives of this work is to offer a guideline for designing the optimal iPRES coil arrays to shim the abdomen.
In this thesis work, the main field () inhomogeneity was evaluated by root mean square error (RMSE). To investigate the shimming abilities of iPRES coil arrays, a set of the human abdomen MRI data was collected for the numerical simulations. Thereafter, different simplified iPRES(N) coil arrays were numerically modeled, including a 1-channel iPRES coil and 8-channel iPRES coil arrays. For 8-channel iPRES coil arrays, each RF coil was split into smaller DC loops in the x, y and z direction to provide extra shimming freedom. Additionally, the number of DC loops in a RF coil was increased from 1 to 5 to find the optimal divisions in z direction. Furthermore, switches were numerically implemented into iPRES coils to reduce the number of power supplies while still providing similar shimming performance with equivalent iPRES coil arrays.
The optimizations demonstrate that the shimming ability of an iPRES coil array increases with number of DC loops per RF coil. Furthermore, the z direction divisions tend to be more effective in reducing field inhomogeneity than the x and y divisions. Moreover, the shimming performance of an iPRES coil array gradually reach to a saturation level when the number of DC loops per RF coil is large enough. Finally, when switches were numerically implemented in the iPRES(4) coil array, the number of power supplies can be reduced from 32 to 8 while keeping the shimming performance similar to iPRES(3) and better than iPRES(1). This thesis work offers a guidance for the designs of iPRES coil arrays.
Resumo:
Tuned liquid column dampers have been proved to be successful in mitigating the dynamic responses of civil infrastructure. There have been some recent applications of this concept on wind turbines and this passive control system can help to mitigate responses of offshore floating platforms and wave devices. The control of dynamic responses of these devices is important for reducing loads on structural elements and facilitating operations and maintenance (O&M) activities. This paper outlines the use of a tuned single liquid column damper for the control of a tension leg platform supported wind turbine. Theoretical studies were carried out and a scaled model was tested in a wave basin to assess the performance of the damper. The tests on the model presented in this paper correspond to a platform with a very low natural frequency for surge, sway and yaw motions. For practical purposes, it was not possible to tune the liquid damper exactly to this frequency. The consequent approach taken and the efficiency of such approach are presented in this paper. Responses to waves of a single frequency are investigated along with responses obtained from wave spectra characterising typical sea states. The extent of control is quantified using peak and root mean squared dynamic responses respectively. The tests present some guidelines and challenges for testing scaled devices in relation to including response control mechanisms. Additionally, the results provide a basis for dictating future research on tuned liquid column damper based control on floating platforms.
Resumo:
The amount and quality of available biomass is a key factor for the sustainable livestock industry and agricultural management related decision making. Globally 31.5% of land cover is grassland while 80% of Ireland’s agricultural land is grassland. In Ireland, grasslands are intensively managed and provide the cheapest feed source for animals. This dissertation presents a detailed state of the art review of satellite remote sensing of grasslands, and the potential application of optical (Moderate–resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)) and radar (TerraSAR-X) time series imagery to estimate the grassland biomass at two study sites (Moorepark and Grange) in the Republic of Ireland using both statistical and state of the art machine learning algorithms. High quality weather data available from the on-site weather station was also used to calculate the Growing Degree Days (GDD) for Grange to determine the impact of ancillary data on biomass estimation. In situ and satellite data covering 12 years for the Moorepark and 6 years for the Grange study sites were used to predict grassland biomass using multiple linear regression, Neuro Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS) models. The results demonstrate that a dense (8-day composite) MODIS image time series, along with high quality in situ data, can be used to retrieve grassland biomass with high performance (R2 = 0:86; p < 0:05, RMSE = 11.07 for Moorepark). The model for Grange was modified to evaluate the synergistic use of vegetation indices derived from remote sensing time series and accumulated GDD information. As GDD is strongly linked to the plant development, or phonological stage, an improvement in biomass estimation would be expected. It was observed that using the ANFIS model the biomass estimation accuracy increased from R2 = 0:76 (p < 0:05) to R2 = 0:81 (p < 0:05) and the root mean square error was reduced by 2.72%. The work on the application of optical remote sensing was further developed using a TerraSAR-X Staring Spotlight mode time series over the Moorepark study site to explore the extent to which very high resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data of interferometrically coherent paddocks can be exploited to retrieve grassland biophysical parameters. After filtering out the non-coherent plots it is demonstrated that interferometric coherence can be used to retrieve grassland biophysical parameters (i. e., height, biomass), and that it is possible to detect changes due to the grass growth, and grazing and mowing events, when the temporal baseline is short (11 days). However, it not possible to automatically uniquely identify the cause of these changes based only on the SAR backscatter and coherence, due to the ambiguity caused by tall grass laid down due to the wind. Overall, the work presented in this dissertation has demonstrated the potential of dense remote sensing and weather data time series to predict grassland biomass using machine-learning algorithms, where high quality ground data were used for training. At present a major limitation for national scale biomass retrieval is the lack of spatial and temporal ground samples, which can be partially resolved by minor modifications in the existing PastureBaseIreland database by adding the location and extent ofeach grassland paddock in the database. As far as remote sensing data requirements are concerned, MODIS is useful for large scale evaluation but due to its coarse resolution it is not possible to detect the variations within the fields and between the fields at the farm scale. However, this issue will be resolved in terms of spatial resolution by the Sentinel-2 mission, and when both satellites (Sentinel-2A and Sentinel-2B) are operational the revisit time will reduce to 5 days, which together with Landsat-8, should enable sufficient cloud-free data for operational biomass estimation at a national scale. The Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (InSAR) approach is feasible if there are enough coherent interferometric pairs available, however this is difficult to achieve due to the temporal decorrelation of the signal. For repeat-pass InSAR over a vegetated area even an 11 days temporal baseline is too large. In order to achieve better coherence a very high resolution is required at the cost of spatial coverage, which limits its scope for use in an operational context at a national scale. Future InSAR missions with pair acquisition in Tandem mode will minimize the temporal decorrelation over vegetation areas for more focused studies. The proposed approach complements the current paradigm of Big Data in Earth Observation, and illustrates the feasibility of integrating data from multiple sources. In future, this framework can be used to build an operational decision support system for retrieval of grassland biophysical parameters based on data from long term planned optical missions (e. g., Landsat, Sentinel) that will ensure the continuity of data acquisition. Similarly, Spanish X-band PAZ and TerraSAR-X2 missions will ensure the continuity of TerraSAR-X and COSMO-SkyMed.
Resumo:
Reliable and fine resolution estimates of surface net-radiation are required for estimating latent and sensible heat fluxes between the land surface and the atmosphere. However, currently, fine resolution estimates of net-radiation are not available and consequently it is challenging to develop multi-year estimates of evapotranspiration at scales that can capture land surface heterogeneity and are relevant for policy and decision-making. We developed and evaluated a global net-radiation product at 5 km and 8-day resolution by combining mutually consistent atmosphere and land data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board Terra. Comparison with net-radiation measurements from 154 globally distributed sites (414 site-years) from the FLUXNET and Surface Radiation budget network (SURFRAD) showed that the net-radiation product agreed well with measurements across seasons and climate types in the extratropics (Wilmott’s index ranged from 0.74 for boreal to 0.63 for Mediterranean sites). Mean absolute deviation between the MODIS and measured net-radiation ranged from 38.0 ± 1.8 W∙m−2 in boreal to 72.0 ± 4.1 W∙m−2 in the tropical climates. The mean bias was small and constituted only 11%, 0.7%, 8.4%, 4.2%, 13.3%, and 5.4% of the mean absolute error in daytime net-radiation in boreal, Mediterranean, temperate-continental, temperate, semi-arid, and tropical climate, respectively. To assess the accuracy of the broader spatiotemporal patterns, we upscaled error-quantified MODIS net-radiation and compared it with the net-radiation estimates from the coarse spatial (1° × 1°) but high temporal resolution gridded net-radiation product from the Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES). Our estimates agreed closely with the net-radiation estimates from the CERES. Difference between the two was less than 10 W•m−2 in 94% of the total land area. MODIS net-radiation product will be a valuable resource for the science community studying turbulent fluxes and energy budget at the Earth’s surface.
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A number of studies have shown that Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) can be applied to quantitatively assess lacustrine sediment constituents. In this study, we developed calibration models based on FTIR for the quantitative determination of biogenic silica (BSi; n = 420; gradient: 0.9-56.5%), total organic carbon (TOC; n = 309; gradient: 0-2.9%), and total inorganic carbon (TIC; n= 152; gradient: 0-0.4%) in a 318 m-long sediment record with a basal age of 3.6 million years from Lake El'gygytgyn, Far East Russian Arctic. The developed partial least squares (PLS) regression models yield high cross-validated (CV) R2CV = 0.86-0.91 and low root mean square error of cross-validation (RMSECV) (3.1-7.0% of the gradient for the different properties). By applying these models to 6771 samples from the entire sediment record, we obtained detailed insight into bioproductivity variations in Lake El'gygytgyn throughout the middle to late Pliocene and Quaternary. High accumulation rates of BSi indicate a productivity maximum during the middle Pliocene (3.6-3.3 Ma), followed by gradually decreasing rates during the late Pliocene and Quaternary. The average BSi accumulation during the middle Pliocene was ~3 times higher than maximum accumulation rates during the past 1.5 million years. The indicated progressive deterioration of environmental and climatic conditions in the Siberian Arctic starting at ca. 3.3 Ma is consistent with the first occurrence of glacial periods and the finally complete establishment of glacial-interglacial cycles during the Quaternary.
Resumo:
Reconstructions of eolian dust accumulation in northwest African margin sediments provide important continuous records of past changes in atmospheric circulation and aridity in the region. Existing records indicate dramatic changes in North African dust emissions over the last 20 ka, but the limited spatial extent of these records and the lack of high-resolution flux data do not allow us to determine whether changes in dust deposition occurred with similar timing, magnitude and abruptness throughout northwest Africa. Here we present new records from a meridional transect of cores stretching from 31°N to 19°N along the northwest African margin. By combining grain size endmember modeling with 230Th-normalized fluxes for the first time, we are able to document spatial and temporal changes in dust deposition under the North African dust plume throughout the last 20 ka. Our results provide quantitative estimates of the magnitude of dust flux changes associated with Heinrich Stadial 1, the Younger Dryas, and the African Humid Period (AHP; ~11.7-5 ka), offering robust targets for model-based estimates of the climatic and biogeochemical impacts of past changes in North African dust emissions. Our data suggest that dust fluxes between 8 and 6 ka were a factor of ~5 lower than average fluxes during the last 2 ka. Using a simple model to estimate the effects of bioturbation on dust input signals, we find that our data are consistent with abrupt, synchronous changes in dust fluxes in all cores at the beginning and end of the AHP. The mean ages of these transitions are 11.8±0.2 ka (1Sigma) and 4.9±0.2 ka, respectively.
Resumo:
The Indian winter monsoon (IWM) is a key component of the seasonally changing monsoon system that affects the densely populated regions of South Asia. Cold winds originating in high northern latitudes provide a link of continental-scale Northern Hemisphere climate to the tropics. Western Disturbances (WD) associated with the IWM play a critical role for the climate and hydrology in northern India and the western Himalaya region. It is vital to understand the mechanisms and teleconnections that influence IWM variability to better predict changes in future climate. Here we present a study of regionally calibrated winter (January) temperatures and according IWM intensities, based on a planktic foraminiferal record with biennial (2.55 years) resolution. Over the last ~250 years, IWM intensities gradually weakened, based on the long-term trend of reconstructed January temperatures. Furthermore, the results indicate that IWM is connected on interannual- to decadal time scales to climate variability of the tropical and extratropical Pacific, via El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). However, our findings suggest that this relationship appeared to begin to decouple since the beginning of the 20th century. Cross-spectral analysis revealed that several distinct decadal-scale phases of colder climate and accordingly more intense winter monsoon centered at the years ~1800, ~1890 and ~1930 can be linked to changes of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).
Resumo:
We study a multiuser multicarrier downlink communication system in which the base station (BS) employs a large number of antennas. By assuming frequency-division duplex operation, we provide a beam domain channel model as the number of BS antennas grows asymptotically large. With this model, we first derive a closed-form upper bound on the achievable ergodic sum-rate before developing necessary conditions to asymptotically maximize the upper bound, with only statistical channel state information at the BS. Inspired by these conditions, we propose a beam division multiple access (BDMA) transmission scheme, where the BS communicates with users via different beams. For BDMA transmission, we design user scheduling to select users within non-overlapping beams, work out an optimal pilot design under a minimum mean square error criterion, and provide optimal pilot sequences by utilizing the Zadoff-Chu sequences. The proposed BDMA scheme reduces significantly the pilot overhead, as well as, the processing complexity at transceivers. Simulations demonstrate the high spectral efficiency of BDMA transmission and the advantages in the bit error rate performance of the proposed pilot sequences.
Resumo:
This paper studies the impact of in-phase and quadrature-phase imbalance (IQI) in two-way amplify-and-forward (AF) relaying systems. In particular, the effective signal-to-interference-plus-noise ratio (SINR) is derived for each source node, considering four different linear detection schemes, namely, uncompensated (Uncomp) scheme, maximal-ratio-combining (MRC), zero-forcing (ZF) and minimum mean-square error (MMSE) based schemes. For each proposed scheme, the outage probability (OP) is investigated over independent, non-identically distributed Nakagami-m fading channels, and exact closed-form expressions are derived for the first three schemes. Based on the closed-form OP expressions, an adaptive detection mode switching scheme is designed for minimizing the OP of both sources. An important observation is that, regardless of the channel conditions and transmit powers, the ZF-based scheme should always be selected if the target SINR is larger than 3 (4.77dB), while the MRC-based scheme should be avoided if the target SINR is larger than 0.38 (-4.20dB).
Resumo:
Il existe désormais une grande variété de lentilles panoramiques disponibles sur le marché dont certaines présentant des caractéristiques étonnantes. Faisant partie de cette dernière catégorie, les lentilles Panomorphes sont des lentilles panoramiques anamorphiques dont le profil de distorsion est fortement non-uniforme, ce qui cause la présence de zones de grandissement augmenté dans le champ de vue. Dans un contexte de robotique mobile, ces particularités peuvent être exploitées dans des systèmes stéréoscopiques pour la reconstruction 3D d’objets d’intérêt qui permettent à la fois une bonne connaissance de l’environnement, mais également l’accès à des détails plus fins en raison des zones de grandissement augmenté. Cependant, à cause de leur complexité, ces lentilles sont difficiles à calibrer et, à notre connaissance, aucune étude n’a réellement été menée à ce propos. L’objectif principal de cette thèse est la conception, l’élaboration et l’évaluation des performances de systèmes stéréoscopiques Panomorphes. Le calibrage a été effectué à l’aide d’une technique établie utilisant des cibles planes et d’une boîte à outils de calibrage dont l’usage est répandu. De plus, des techniques mathématiques nouvelles visant à rétablir la symétrie de révolution dans l’image (cercle) et à uniformiser la longueur focale (cercle uniforme) ont été développées pour voir s’il était possible d’ainsi faciliter le calibrage. Dans un premier temps, le champ de vue a été divisé en zones à l’intérieur desquelles la longueur focale instantanée varie peu et le calibrage a été effectué pour chacune d’entre elles. Puis, le calibrage général des systèmes a aussi été réalisé pour tout le champ de vue simultanément. Les résultats ont montré que la technique de calibrage par zone ne produit pas de gain significatif quant à la qualité des reconstructions 3D d’objet d’intérêt par rapport au calibrage général. Cependant, l’étude de cette nouvelle approche a permis de réaliser une évaluation des performances des systèmes stéréoscopiques Panomorphes sur tout le champ de vue et de montrer qu’il est possible d’effectuer des reconstructions 3D de qualité dans toutes les zones. De plus, la technique mathématique du cercle a produit des résultats de reconstructions 3D en général équivalents à l’utilisation des coordonnées originales. Puisqu’il existe des outils de calibrage qui, contrairement à celui utilisé dans ce travail, ne disposent que d’un seul degré de liberté sur la longueur focale, cette technique pourrait rendre possible le calibrage de lentilles Panomorphes à l’aide de ceux-ci. Finalement, certaines conclusions ont pu être dégagées quant aux facteurs déterminants influençant la qualité de la reconstruction 3D à l’aide de systèmes stéréoscopiques Panomorphes et aux caractéristiques à privilégier dans le choix des lentilles. La difficulté à calibrer les optiques Panomorphes en laboratoire a mené à l’élaboration d’une technique de calibrage virtuel utilisant un logiciel de conception optique et une boîte à outils de calibrage. Cette approche a permis d’effectuer des simulations en lien avec l’impact des conditions d’opération sur les paramètres de calibrage et avec l’effet des conditions de calibrage sur la qualité de la reconstruction. Des expérimentations de ce type sont pratiquement impossibles à réaliser en laboratoire mais représentent un intérêt certain pour les utilisateurs. Le calibrage virtuel d’une lentille traditionnelle a aussi montré que l’erreur de reprojection moyenne, couramment utilisée comme façon d’évaluer la qualité d’un calibrage, n’est pas nécessairement un indicateur fiable de la qualité de la reconstruction 3D. Il est alors nécessaire de disposer de données supplémentaires pour juger adéquatement de la qualité d’un calibrage.