A potential vorticity signature for the cold sector of winter extratropical cyclones

The cold sector of a midlatitude storm is characterized by distinctive features such as strong surface heat fluxes, shallow convection, convective precipitation and synoptic subsidence. In order to evaluate the contribution of processes occurring in the cold sector to the mean climate, an appropriate indicator is needed. This study describes the systematic presence of negative potential vorticity (PV) behind the cold front of extratropical storms in winter. The origin of this negative PV is analyzed using ERA-Interim data, and PV tendencies averaged over the depth of the boundary layer are evaluated. It is found that negative PV is generated by diabatic processes in the cold sector and by Ekman pumping at the low centre, whereas positive PV is generated by Ekman advection of potential temperature in the warm sector. We suggest here that negative PV at low levels can be used to identify the cold sector. A PV-based indicator is applied to estimate the respective contributions of the cold sector and the remainder of the storm to upward motion and large-scale and convective precipitation. We compare the PV-based indicator with other distinctive features that could be used as markers of the cold sector and find that potential vorticity is the best criterion when taken alone and the best when combined with any other.

Protocol for a feasibility study of a self help cognitive behavioural therapy resource for the reduction of dental anxiety in young people

Background Childhood dental anxiety is very common, with 10–20 % of children and young people reporting high levels of dental anxiety. It is distressing and has a negative impact on the quality of life of young people and their parents as well as being associated with poor oral health. Affected individuals may develop a lifelong reliance on general anaesthetic or sedation for necessary dental treatment thus requiring the support of specialist dental services. Children and young people with dental anxiety therefore require additional clinical time and can be costly to treat in the long term. The reduction of dental anxiety through the use of effective psychological techniques is, therefore, of high importance. However, there is a lack of high-quality research investigating the impact of cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) approaches when applied to young people’s dental anxiety. Methods/design The first part of the study will develop a profile of dentally anxious young people using a prospective questionnaire sent to a consecutive sample of 100 young people referred to the Paediatric Dentistry Department, Charles Clifford Dental Hospital, in Sheffield. The second part will involve interviewing a purposive sample of 15–20 dental team members on their perceptions of a CBT self-help resource for dental anxiety, their opinions on whether they might use such a resource with patients, and their willingness to recruit participants to a future randomised controlled trial (RCT) to evaluate the resource. The third part of the study will investigate the most appropriate outcome measures to include in a trial, the acceptability of the resource, and retention and completion rates of treatment with a sample of 60 dentally anxious young people using the CBT resource. Discussion This study will provide information on the profile of dentally anxious young people who could potentially be helped by a guided self-help CBT resource. It will gain the perceptions of dental care team members of guided self-help CBT for dental anxiety in young people and their willingness to recruit participants to a trial. Acceptability of the resource to participants and retention and completion rates will also be investigated to inform a future RCT.

Examining the predictability of the Stratospheric Sudden Warming of January 2013 using multiple NWP systems

The first multi-model study to estimate the predictability of a boreal Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is performed using five NWP systems. During the 2012-2013 boreal winter, anomalous upward propagating planetary wave activity was observed towards the end of December, which followed by a rapid deceleration of the westerly circulation around 2 January 2013, and on 7 January 2013 the zonal mean zonal wind at 60°N and 10 hPa reversed to easterly. This stratospheric dynamical activity was followed by an equatorward shift of the tropospheric jet stream and by a high pressure anomaly over the North Atlantic, which resulted in severe cold conditions in the UK and Northern Europe. In most of the five models, the SSW event was predicted 10 days in advance. However, only some ensemble members in most of the models predicted weakening of westerly wind when the models were initialized 15 days in advance of the SSW. Further dynamical analysis of the SSW shows that this event was characterized by the anomalous planetary wave-1 amplification followed by the anomalous wave-2 amplification in the stratosphere, which resulted in a split vortex occurring between 6 January 2013 and 8 January 2013. The models have some success in reproducing wave-1 activity when initialized 15 days in advance, they but generally failed to produce the wave-2 activity during the final days of the event. Detailed analysis shows that models have reasonably good skill in forecasting tropospheric blocking features that stimulate wave-2 amplification in the troposphere, but they have limited skill in reproducing wave-2 amplification in the stratosphere.

The evolution of green leases: towards inter-organizational environmental governance

Improving the environmental performance of non-domestic buildings is a complex and ‘wicked’ problem due to conflicting interests and incentives. This is particularly challenging in tenanted spaces, where landlord and tenant interactions are regulated through leases that traditionally ignore environmental considerations. ‘Green leasing’ is conceptualized as a form of ‘middle-out’ inter-organizational environmental governance that operates between organizations, alongside other drivers. This paper investigates how leases are evolving to become ‘greener’ in the UK and Australia, providing evidence from five varied sources on: (1) UK office and retail leases, (2) UK retail sector energy management, (3) a major UK retailer case study; (4) office leasing in Sydney, and (5) expert interviews on Australian retail leases. With some exceptions, the evidence reveals an increasing trend towards green leases in prime offices in both countries, but not in retail or sub-prime offices. Generally introduced by landlords, adopted green leases contain a variety of ambitions and levels of enforcement. As an evolving form of private–private environmental governance, green leases form a valuable framework for further tenant–landlord cooperation within properties and across portfolios. This increased cohesion could create new opportunities for polycentric governance, particularly at the interface of cities and the property industry.

Patterns of hominin occupation and cultural diversity across the Gebel Akhdar of Northern Libya over the last ~200 kyr

Excavations at Haua Fteah cave in Cyrenaica, Libya, have revealed a cultural sequence that may span the last glacial–interglacial-glacial cycle. The TRANS-NAP project has been re-excavating Haua Fteah and conducting geoarchaeological survey of an ecologically diverse landscape that includes the fertile Gebel Akhdar and littoral, pre-desert, and desert biomes. A major aim of this project is to characterize cultural and environmental changes across the region and correlate the surface archaeology with that from Haua Fteah. To date, 181 sites have been recorded, ranging from the Middle Stone Age (MSA) to Late Stone Age (LSA). Their geographic distribution suggests temporal variation in patterns of hominin habitat preference, with significantly more LSA than MSA sites at higher elevations. The surface archaeology also points to substantial spatiotemporal technological variation within the MSA. These patterns may be explained by both paleoenvironmental change and paleodemographic shifts in the region, resulting in a variety of hominin adaptive responses.

The impact of the elderly on inflation rates in developed countries

What explains the cross-national variation in inflation rates in developed countries? Previous literature has emphasised the role of ideas and institutions, and to a lesser extent interest groups, while leaving the role of electoral politics comparatively unexplored. This paper seeks to redress this neglect by focusing on one case where electoral politics matters for inflation: the share of the population above 65 years old in a country. I argue that countries with a larger share of elderly have lower inflation because older people are both more inflation averse and politically powerful, forcing governments to pursue lower inflation. I test my argument in three steps. First, logistic regression analysis of survey data confirms older people are more inflation averse. Second, panel data regression analysis of party manifesto data reveals that European countries with more old people have more economically orthodox political parties. Third, time series cross-section regression analyses demonstrate that the share of the elderly is negatively correlated with inflation in both a sample of 21 advanced OECD economies and a larger sample of 175 countries. Ageing may therefore push governments to adopt a low inflation regime.

Coordination, inclusiveness and wage inequality between median and bottom income workers

What explains cross-national variation in wage inequality? Research in comparative political economy stresses the importance of the welfare state and wage coordination in reducing not only disposable income inequality but also gross earnings inequality. However, the cross-national variation in gross earnings inequality between median and low income workers is at odds with this conventional wisdom: the German coordinated market economy is now more unequal in this type of inequality than the UK, a liberal market economy. To solve this puzzle, I argue that non-inclusive coordination benefits median but not bottom income workers and is as a result associated with higher – rather than lower - wage inequality. I find support for this argument using a large N quantitative analysis of wage inequality in a panel of Western European countries. Results are robust to the inclusion of numerous controls, country fixed effects, and also hold with a sample of OECD countries. Taken together these findings force us to reconsider the relationship between coordination and wage inequality at the bottom of the income distribution.

The “pain matrix” in pain-free individuals

Human functional imaging provides a correlative picture of brain activity during pain. A particular set of central nervous system structures (eg, the anterior cingulate cortex, thalamus, and insula) consistently respond to transient nociceptive stimuli causing pain. Activation of this so-called pain matrix or pain signature has been related to perceived pain intensity, both within and between individuals,1,2 and is now considered a candidate biomarker for pain in medicolegal settings and a tool for drug discovery. The pain-specific interpretation of such functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) responses, although logically flawed,3,4 remains pervasive. For example, a 2015 review states that “the most likely interpretation of activity in the pain matrix seems to be pain.”4 Demonstrating the nonspecificity of the pain matrix requires ruling out the presence of pain when highly salient sensory stimuli are presented. In this study, we administered noxious mechanical stimuli to individuals with congenital insensitivity to pain and sampled their brain activity with fMRI. Loss-of-function SCN9A mutations in these individuals abolishes sensory neuron sodium channel Nav1.7 activity, resulting in pain insensitivity through an impaired peripheral drive that leaves tactile percepts fully intact.5 This allows complete experimental disambiguation of sensory responses and painful sensations

Wheat seed embryo excision enables the creation of axenic seedlings and Koch’s postulates testing of putative bacterial endophytes

Early establishment of endophytes can play a role in pathogen suppression and improve seedling development. One route for establishment of endophytes in seedlings is transmission of bacteria from the parent plant to the seedling via the seed. In wheat seeds, it is not clear whether this transmission route exists, and the identities and location of bacteria within wheat seeds are unknown. We identified bacteria in the wheat (Triticum aestivum) cv. Hereward seed environment using embryo excision to determine the location of the bacterial load. Axenic wheat seedlings obtained with this method were subsequently used to screen a putative endophyte bacterial isolate library for endophytic competency. This absence of bacteria recovered from seeds indicated low bacterial abundance and/or the presence of inhibitors. Diversity of readily culturable bacteria in seeds was low with 8 genera identified, dominated by Erwinia and Paenibacillus. We propose that anatomical restrictions in wheat limit embryo associated vertical transmission, and that bacterial load is carried in the seed coat, crease tissue and endosperm. This finding facilitates the creation of axenic wheat plants to test competency of putative endophytes and also provides a platform for endophyte competition, plant growth, and gene expression studies without an indigenous bacterial background.

Discovering biomarkers for antidepressant response: protocol from the Canadian biomarker integration network in depression (CAN-BIND) and clinical characteristics of the first patient cohort

Background Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) is among the most prevalent and disabling medical conditions worldwide. Identification of clinical and biological markers (“biomarkers”) of treatment response could personalize clinical decisions and lead to better outcomes. This paper describes the aims, design, and methods of a discovery study of biomarkers in antidepressant treatment response, conducted by the Canadian Biomarker Integration Network in Depression (CAN-BIND). The CAN-BIND research program investigates and identifies biomarkers that help to predict outcomes in patients with MDD treated with antidepressant medication. The primary objective of this initial study (known as CAN-BIND-1) is to identify individual and integrated neuroimaging, electrophysiological, molecular, and clinical predictors of response to sequential antidepressant monotherapy and adjunctive therapy in MDD. Methods CAN-BIND-1 is a multisite initiative involving 6 academic health centres working collaboratively with other universities and research centres. In the 16-week protocol, patients with MDD are treated with a first-line antidepressant (escitalopram 10–20 mg/d) that, if clinically warranted after eight weeks, is augmented with an evidence-based, add-on medication (aripiprazole 2–10 mg/d). Comprehensive datasets are obtained using clinical rating scales; behavioural, dimensional, and functioning/quality of life measures; neurocognitive testing; genomic, genetic, and proteomic profiling from blood samples; combined structural and functional magnetic resonance imaging; and electroencephalography. De-identified data from all sites are aggregated within a secure neuroinformatics platform for data integration, management, storage, and analyses. Statistical analyses will include multivariate and machine-learning techniques to identify predictors, moderators, and mediators of treatment response. Discussion From June 2013 to February 2015, a cohort of 134 participants (85 outpatients with MDD and 49 healthy participants) has been evaluated at baseline. The clinical characteristics of this cohort are similar to other studies of MDD. Recruitment at all sites is ongoing to a target sample of 290 participants. CAN-BIND will identify biomarkers of treatment response in MDD through extensive clinical, molecular, and imaging assessments, in order to improve treatment practice and clinical outcomes. It will also create an innovative, robust platform and database for future research.