Assessing the date of the global oil peak: the need to use 2P reserves

Combining geological knowledge with proved plus probable ('2P') oil discovery data indicates that over 60 countries are now past their resource-limited peak of conventional oil production. The data show that the global peak of conventional oil production is close. Many analysts who rely only on proved ('1P') oil reserves data draw a very different conclusion. But proved oil reserves contain no information about the true size of discoveries, being variously under-reported, over-reported and not reported. Reliance on 1P data has led to a number of misconceptions, including the notion that past oil forecasts were incorrect, that oil reserves grow very significantly due to technology gain, and that the global supply of oil is ensured provided sufficient investment is forthcoming to 'turn resources into reserves'. These misconceptions have been widely held, including within academia, governments, some oil companies, and organisations such as the IEA. In addition to conventional oil, the world contains large quantities of non-conventional oil. Most current detailed models show that past the conventional oil peak the non-conventional oils are unlikely to come on-stream fast enough to offset conventional's decline. To determine the extent of future oil supply constraints calculations are required to determine fundamental rate limits for the production of non-conventional oils, as well as oil from gas, coal and biomass, and of oil substitution. Such assessments will need to examine technological readiness and lead-times, as well as rate constraints on investment, pollution, and net-energy return. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Chemistry and biology of maculalactone A from the marine cyanobacterium Kyrtuthrix maculans

Maculalactone A is the most abundant secondary metabolite in Kyrtuthrix maculans, a marine cyanobacterium found in the mid-high shore of moderately exposed to sheltered rocky shores in Hong Kong and South East Asia. This species appears to survive as pure colonies forming distinct black zones on the rock. Maculalactone A may provide K. maculans with a chemical defense against several marine organisms, including the common grazer, Chlorostoma argyrostoma and settlement by larvae of the barnacles, Tetraclita japonica, Balanus amphitrite and Ibla cumingii. The natural concentration of maculalactone A varied with season and also with tidal height on the shore and although a strong positive linear correlation was observed between maculalactone A concentration and herbivore grazing pressure, manipulative experiments demonstrated that grazing pressure was not directly responsible for inducing the biosynthesis of this metabolite. The potential of maculalactone A as a natural marine anti-fouling agent (i.e. as an alternative to environmentally-damaging copper- and tin-based anti-fouling paints) was investigated after achieving a gram-scale synthesis of this compound. Preliminary field trials with anti-fouling paints which contained synthetic maculalactone A as the active principle have confirmed that this compound seems to have a specific activity against molluscan settlers.

Sea-breeze modification of the growth of a marine internal boundary layer

A numerical mesoscale model is used to make a high-resolution simulation of the marine boundary layer in the Persian Gulf, during conditions of offshore flow from Saudi Arabia. A marine internal boundary layer (MIBL) and a sea-breeze circulation (SBC) are found to co-exist. The sea breeze develops in the mid-afternoon, at which time its front is displaced several tens of kilometres offshore. Between the coast and the sea-breeze system, the MIBL that occurs is consistent with a picture described in the existing literature. However, the MIBL is perturbed by the SBC, the boundary layer deepening significantly seaward of the sea-breeze front. Our analysis suggests that this strong, localized deepening is not a direct consequence of frontal uplift, but rather that the immediate cause is the retardation of the prevailing, low-level offshore wind by the SBC. The simulated boundary-layer development can be accounted for by using a simple 1D Lagrangian model of growth driven by the surface heat flux. This model is obtained as a straightforward modification of an established MIBL analytic growth model.

An assessment of aerosol‐cloud interactions in marine stratus clouds based on surface remote sensing

An assessment of aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) from ground-based remote sensing under coastal stratiform clouds is presented. The assessment utilizes a long-term, high temporal resolution data set from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program deployment at Pt. Reyes, California, United States, in 2005 to provide statistically robust measures of ACI and to characterize the variability of the measures based on variability in environmental conditions and observational approaches. The average ACIN (= dlnNd/dlna, the change in cloud drop number concentration with aerosol concentration) is 0.48, within a physically plausible range of 0–1.0. Values vary between 0.18 and 0.69 with dependence on (1) the assumption of constant cloud liquid water path (LWP), (2) the relative value of cloud LWP, (3) methods for retrieving Nd, (4) aerosol size distribution, (5) updraft velocity, and (6) the scale and resolution of observations. The sensitivity of the local, diurnally averaged radiative forcing to this variability in ACIN values, assuming an aerosol perturbation of 500 c-3 relative to a background concentration of 100 cm-3, ranges betwee-4 and -9 W -2. Further characterization of ACI and its variability is required to reduce uncertainties in global radiative forcing estimates.

Actinomyces marimammalium sp. nov., from marine mammals

Three strains of a previously undescribed Actinomyces-like bacterium were isolated from samples taken from two dead seals and a porpoise. Biochemical testing and PAGE analysis of whole-cell proteins indicated the strains were phenotypically similar to each other but different from previously described Actinomyces and Arcanobacterium species. Comparative 16S rRNA gene sequencing studies showed the organisms from marine animals were genetically closely related and represent a hitherto unknown subline within the genus Actinomyces (sequence divergence values > 6% with recognized species). Based on phylogenetic and phenotypic evidence it is proposed that the unknown bacterium from the seals and a porpoise should be classified as Actinomyces marimammalium sp. nov. The type strain is CCUG 41710T.

Reactive Halogens in the Marine Boundary Layer (RHaMBLe): the tropical North Atlantic experiments

The NERC UK SOLAS-funded Reactive Halogens in the Marine Boundary Layer (RHaMBLe) programme comprised three field experiments. This manuscript presents an overview of the measurements made within the two simultaneous remote experiments conducted in the tropical North Atlantic in May and June 2007. Measurements were made from two mobile and one ground-based platforms. The heavily instrumented cruise D319 on the RRS Discovery from Lisbon, Portugal to São Vicente, Cape Verde and back to Falmouth, UK was used to characterise the spatial distribution of boundary layer components likely to play a role in reactive halogen chemistry. Measurements onboard the ARSF Dornier aircraft were used to allow the observations to be interpreted in the context of their vertical distribution and to confirm the interpretation of atmospheric structure in the vicinity of the Cape Verde islands. Long-term ground-based measurements at the Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory (CVAO) on São Vicente were supplemented by long-term measurements of reactive halogen species and characterisation of additional trace gas and aerosol species during the intensive experimental period. This paper presents a summary of the measurements made within the RHaMBLe remote experiments and discusses them in their meteorological and chemical context as determined from these three platforms and from additional meteorological analyses. Air always arrived at the CVAO from the North East with a range of air mass origins (European, Atlantic and North American continental). Trace gases were present at stable and fairly low concentrations with the exception of a slight increase in some anthropogenic components in air of North American origin, though NOx mixing ratios during this period remained below 20 pptv (note the non-IUPAC adoption in this manuscript of pptv and ppbv, equivalent to pmol mol−1 and nmol mol−1 to reflect common practice). Consistency with these air mass classifications is observed in the time series of soluble gas and aerosol composition measurements, with additional identification of periods of slightly elevated dust concentrations consistent with the trajectories passing over the African continent. The CVAO is shown to be broadly representative of the wider North Atlantic marine boundary layer; measurements of NO, O3 and black carbon from the ship are consistent with a clean Northern Hemisphere marine background. Aerosol composition measurements do not indicate elevated organic material associated with clean marine air. Closer to the African coast, black carbon and NO levels start to increase, indicating greater anthropogenic influence. Lower ozone in this region is possibly associated with the increased levels of measured halocarbons, associated with the nutrient rich waters of the Mauritanian upwelling. Bromide and chloride deficits in coarse mode aerosol at both the CVAO and on D319 and the continuous abundance of inorganic gaseous halogen species at CVAO indicate significant reactive cycling of halogens. Aircraft measurements of O3 and CO show that surface measurements are representative of the entire boundary layer in the vicinity both in diurnal variability and absolute levels. Above the inversion layer similar diurnal behaviour in O3 and CO is observed at lower mixing ratios in the air that had originated from south of Cape Verde, possibly from within the ITCZ. ECMWF calculations on two days indicate very different boundary layer depths and aircraft flights over the ship replicate this, giving confidence in the calculated boundary layer depth.

The north Atlantic marine oundary layer experiment (NAMBLEX): Overview of the campaign held at Mace Head, Ireland, in summer 2002

The North Atlantic Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (NAMBLEX), involving over 50 scientists from 12 institutions, took place at Mace Head, Ireland (53.32° N, 9.90° W), between 23 July and 4 September 2002. A wide range of state-of-the-art instrumentation enabled detailed measurements of the boundary layer structure and atmospheric composition in the gas and aerosol phase to be made, providing one of the most comprehensive in situ studies of the marine boundary layer to date. This overview paper describes the aims of the NAMBLEX project in the context of previous field campaigns in the Marine Boundary Layer (MBL), the overall layout of the site, a summary of the instrumentation deployed, the temporal coverage of the measurement data, and the numerical models used to interpret the field data. Measurements of some trace species were made for the first time during the campaign, which was characterised by predominantly clean air of marine origin, but more polluted air with higher levels of NOx originating from continental regions was also experienced. This paper provides a summary of the meteorological measurements and Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) structure measurements, presents time series of some of the longer-lived trace species (O3, CO, H2, DMS, CH4, NMHC, NOx, NOy, PAN) and summarises measurements of other species that are described in more detail in other papers within this special issue, namely oxygenated VOCs, HCHO, peroxides, organo-halogenated species, a range of shorter lived halogen species (I2, OIO, IO, BrO), NO3 radicals, photolysis frequencies, the free radicals OH, HO2 and (HO2+Σ RO2), as well as a summary of the aerosol measurements. NAMBLEX was supported by measurements made in the vicinity of Mace Head using the NERC Dornier-228 aircraft. Using ECMWF wind-fields, calculations were made of the air-mass trajectories arriving at Mace Head during NAMBLEX, and were analysed together with both meteorological and trace-gas measurements. In this paper a chemical climatology for the duration of the campaign is presented to interpret the distribution of air-mass origins and emission sources, and to provide a convenient framework of air-mass classification that is used by other papers in this issue for the interpretation of observed variability in levels of trace gases and aerosols.

Perspectives on community representation within the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative: experiences from south-east Madagascar

This article critically examines the nature and quality of governance in community representation and civil society engagement in the context of trans-national large-scale mining, drawing on experiences in the Anosy Region of south-east Madagascar. An exploration of functional relationships between government, mining business and civil society stakeholders reveals an equivocal legitimacy of certain civil society representatives, created by state manipulation, which contributes to community disempowerment. The appointment of local government officials, rather than election, creates a hierarchy of upward dependencies and a culture where the majority of officials express similar views and political alliances. As a consequence, community resistance is suppressed. Voluntary mechanisms such as Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) advocate community stakeholder engagement in decision making processes as a measure to achieve public accountability. In many developing countries, where there is a lack of transparency and high levels of corruption, the value of this engagement, however, is debatable. Findings from this study indicate that the power relationships which exist between stakeholders in the highly lucrative mining industry override efforts to achieve "good governance" through voluntary community engagement. The continuing challenge lies in identifying where the responsibility sits in order to address this power struggle to achieve fair representation.

Corporate social responsibility in the extractive industries: experiences from developing countries

This paper introduces a special issue on ‘Corporate Social Responsibility in the Extractive Industries: Experiences from Developing Countries’. Drawing upon case study analysis from Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa and Asia, the papers in this issue broaden understanding of how multinational mining and oil and gas companies have embraced the CSR challenge and responded to criticisms of their performance in developing countries. This paper provides an introduction to the debate on CSR in the extractive industries in developing countries, reviewing the key issues examined on this subject to date.