Estimation and prediction of average vehicle occupancies using traffic accident records

As congestion management strategies begin to put more emphasis on person trips than vehicle trips, the need for vehicle occupancy data has become more critical. The traditional methods of collecting these data include the roadside windshield method and the carousel method. These methods are labor-intensive and expensive. An alternative to these traditional methods is to make use of the vehicle occupancy information in traffic accident records. This method is cost effective and may provide better spatial and temporal coverage than the traditional methods. However, this method is subject to potential biases resulting from under- and over-involvement of certain population sectors and certain types of accidents in traffic accident records. In this dissertation, three such potential biases, i.e., accident severity, driver’s age, and driver’s gender, were investigated and the corresponding bias factors were developed as needed. The results show that although multi-occupant vehicles are involved in higher percentages of severe accidents than are single-occupant vehicles, multi-occupant vehicles in the whole accident vehicle population were not overrepresented in the accident database. On the other hand, a significant difference was found between the distributions of the ages and genders of drivers involved in accidents and those of the general driving population. An information system that incorporates adjustments for the potential biases was developed to estimate the average vehicle occupancies (AVOs) for different types of roadways on the Florida state roadway system. A reasonableness check of the results from the system shows AVO estimates that are highly consistent with expectations. In addition, comparisons of AVOs from accident data with the field estimates show that the two data sources produce relatively consistent results. While accident records can be used to obtain the historical AVO trends and field data can be used to estimate the current AVOs, no known methods have been developed to project future AVOs. Four regression models for the purpose of predicting weekday AVOs on different levels of geographic areas and roadway types were developed as part of this dissertation. The models show that such socioeconomic factors as income, vehicle ownership, and employment have a significant impact on AVOs.

Demographic effects of thatch harvest and implications for sustainable use of irapai palm (Lepidocaryum tenue, Mart.), by riverine communities in the Peruvian Amazon

Lepidocaryum tenue Mart. (Arecaceae) is a small, understory palm of terra firme forests of the western and central Amazon basin. Known as irapai, it is used for roof thatch by Amazonian peoples who collect its leaves from the wild and generate income from its fronds and articles fabricated from them. Increasing demand has caused local concern that populations are declining. Cultivation attempts have been unsuccessful. The purpose of this study was to investigate market conditions and quantify population dynamics and demographic responses of harvested and unharvested irapai growing near Iquitos, Peru. ^ Ethnobotanical research included participant surveys to determine movement of thatch tiles, called crisnejas, through Moronacocha Port. I also conducted a seed germination trial, and for four years studied five populations growing in communities with similar topography and soils but different land tenure and management strategies. Stage, survival, leaf production, and reproductive transitions were used to calculate ramet demographic rates and develop population projection matrices. ^ Weavers made an average of 20–30 crisnejas per day (90–130 leaves each), and earned US$0.09 to 0.70 each (US$1.80 to 21.00 per day). Average crisnejas per month sold per vendor was 2,955 with a profit range of US$0.05 to 0.32 per crisneja. Wholesalers worked with capital outlay from US$100 to 400, and an estimated ten to twenty vendors could be found at a given time. Consumers paid between US$0.23 to 1.20 per crisneja. Although differences in demographic rates by location existed, most were not significant enough to attribute to management. ^ After 60 months, mean seed germination rate was 19.5% in all media (37.9% in peat). Seedling survival was less than two percent after twelve months. Annual palm mortality was three percent, and occurred disproportionately in small (<50 cm) palms. Small palms grew more in height. Unharvested palms grew less than harvested palms. Large palms (≥50 cm) produced more leaves, were more likely to reproduce, and collectors harvested them more frequently. Reproductive potentials (sexual and asexual) were low. Population growth rates were greater than or not significantly different from 1.0, indicating populations maintained or increased in size. Current levels of irapai harvest appear sustainable. DNA analysis of stems and recruits is recommended to understand population composition and stage-specific asexual fecundity. ^

The influence of body size on the ecology of coastal fish predators in the Bahamas

Body size is a fundamental structural characteristic of organisms, determining critical life history and physiological traits, and influencing population dynamics, community structure, and ecosystem function. For my dissertation, I focused on effects of body size on habitat use and diet of important coastal fish predators, as well as their influence on faunal communities in Bahamian wetlands. First, using acoustic telemetry and stable isotope analysis, I identified high variability in movement patterns and habitat use among individuals within a gray snapper (Lutjanus griseus) and schoolmaster snapper (L. apodus) population. This intrapopulation variation was not explained by body size, but by individual behavior in habitat use. Isotope values differed between individuals that moved further distances and individuals that stayed close to their home sites, suggesting movement differences were related to specific patterns of foraging behavior. Subsequently, while investigating diet of schoolmaster snapper over a two-year period using stomach content and stable isotope analyses, I also found intrapopulation diet variation, mostly explained by differences in size class, individual behavior and temporal variability. I then developed a hypothesis-testing framework examining intrapopulation niche variation between size classes using stable isotopes. This framework can serve as baseline to categorize taxonomic or functional groupings into specific niche shift scenarios, as well as to help elucidate underlying mechanisms causing niche shifts in certain size classes. Finally, I examined the effect of different-sized fish predators on epifaunal community structure in shallow seagrass beds using exclusion experiments at two spatial scales. Overall, I found that predator effects were rather weak, with predator size and spatial scale having no impact on the community. Yet, I also found some evidence of strong interactions on particular common snapper prey. As Bahamian wetlands are increasingly threatened by human activities (e.g., overexploitation, habitat degradation), an enhanced knowledge of the ecology of organisms inhabiting these systems is crucial for developing appropriate conservation and management strategies. My dissertation research contributed to this effort by providing critical information about the resource use of important Bahamian fish predators, as well as their effect on faunal seagrass communities.

Influence of teleost abundance on the distribution and abundance of sharks in Florida Bay, USA

Understanding the factors that influence the distribution and abundance of predators, including sharks, is important for predicting the impacts of human changes to the environment. Such studies are particularly important in Florida Bay, USA where there are planned large-scale changes to patterns of freshwater input from the Everglades ecosystem. Studies of many marine predators suggest that links between predator and prey habitat use may vary with spatial scale, but there have been few studies of the role of prey distribution in shaping habitat use and abundance of sharks. We used longline catches of sharks and trawls for potential teleost prey to determine the influence of teleost abundance on shark abundance at the scale of regions and habitats in Florida Bay. We found that shark catch per unit effort (CPUE) was not linked to CPUE ofteleosts at the scale of sampling sites, but shark CPUE was positively correlated with the mean CPUE for teleosts within a region. Although there does not appear to be a strong match between the abundance of teleosts and sharks at small spatial scales, regional shark abundance is likely driven, at least partially, by the availability of prey. Management strategies that influence teleost abundance will have cascading effects to higher trophic levels in Florida Bay.

Intra-Population Variation in Activity Ranges, Diel Patterns, Movement Rates, and Habitat Use of American Alligators in a Subtropical Estuary

Movement and habitat use patterns are fundamental components of the behaviors of mobile animals and help determine the scale and types of interactions they have with their environments. These behaviors are especially important to quantify for top predators because they can have strong effects on lower trophic levels as well as the wider ecosystem. Many studies of top predator movement and habitat use focus on general population level trends, which may overlook important intra-population variation in behaviors that now appear to be common. In an effort to better understand the prevalence of intra-population variation in top predator movement behaviors and the potential effects of such variation on ecosystem dynamics, we examined the movement and habitat use patterns of a population of adult American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) in a subtropical estuary for nearly four years. We found that alligators exhibited divergent behaviors with respect to activity ranges, movement rates, and habitat use, and that individualized behaviors were stable over multiple years. We also found that the variations across the three behavioral metrics were correlated such that consistent behavioral types emerged, specifically more exploratory individuals and more sedentary individuals. Our study demonstrates that top predator populations can be characterized by high degrees of intra-population variation in terms of movement and habitat use behaviors that could lead to individuals filling different ecological roles in the same ecosystem. By extension, one-size-fits-all ecosystem and species-specific conservation and management strategies that do not account for potential intra-population variation in top predator behaviors may not produce the desired outcomes in all cases.

Estimation and Prediction of Average Vehicle Occupancies using Traffic Accident Records

As congestion management strategies begin to put more emphasis on person trips than vehicle trips, the need for vehicle occupancy data has become more critical. The traditional methods of collecting these data include the roadside windshield method and the carousel method. These methods are labor-intensive and expensive. An alternative to these traditional methods is to make use of the vehicle occupancy information in traffic accident records. This method is cost effective and may provide better spatial and temporal coverage than the traditional methods. However, this method is subject to potential biases resulting from under- and over-involvement of certain population sectors and certain types of accidents in traffic accident records. In this dissertation, three such potential biases, i.e., accident severity, driver¡¯s age, and driver¡¯s gender, were investigated and the corresponding bias factors were developed as needed. The results show that although multi-occupant vehicles are involved in higher percentages of severe accidents than are single-occupant vehicles, multi-occupant vehicles in the whole accident vehicle population were not overrepresented in the accident database. On the other hand, a significant difference was found between the distributions of the ages and genders of drivers involved in accidents and those of the general driving population. An information system that incorporates adjustments for the potential biases was developed to estimate the average vehicle occupancies (AVOs) for different types of roadways on the Florida state roadway system. A reasonableness check of the results from the system shows AVO estimates that are highly consistent with expectations. In addition, comparisons of AVOs from accident data with the field estimates show that the two data sources produce relatively consistent results. While accident records can be used to obtain the historical AVO trends and field data can be used to estimate the current AVOs, no known methods have been developed to project future AVOs. Four regression models for the purpose of predicting weekday AVOs on different levels of geographic areas and roadway types were developed as part of this dissertation. The models show that such socioeconomic factors as income, vehicle ownership, and employment have a significant impact on AVOs.

Macroinvertebrate abundance in tropical Andean streams, Ecuador

Deforestation in the tropical Andes is affecting ecological conditions of streams, and determination of how much forest should be retained is a pressing task for conservation, restoration and management strategies. We calculated and analyzed eight benthic metrics (structural, compositional and water quality indices) and a physical-chemical composite index with gradients of vegetation cover to assess the effects of deforestation on macroinvertebrate communities and water quality of 23 streams in southern Ecuadorian Andes. Using a geographical information system (GIS), we quantified vegetation cover at three spatial scales: the entire catchment, the riparian buffer of 30 m width extending the entire stream length, and the local scale defined for a stream reach of 100 m in length and similar buffer width. Macroinvertebrate and water quality metrics had the strongest relationships with vegetation cover at catchment and riparian scales, while vegetation cover did not show any association with the macroinvertebrate metrics at local scale. At catchment scale, the water quality metrics indicate that ecological condition of Andean streams is good when vegetation cover is over 70%. Further, macroinvertebrate community assemblages were more diverse and related in catchments largely covered by native vegetation (>70%). Overall, our results suggest that retaining an important quantity of native vegetation cover within the catchments and a linkage between headwater and riparian forests help to maintain and improve stream biodiversity and water quality in Andean streams affected by deforestation. Also, this research proposes that a strong regulation focused to the management of riparian buffers can be successful when decision making is addressed to conservation/restoration of Andean catchments.

Gestão do sistema de produção e práticas enxutas adotadas nas indústrias paraibanas: um estudo multicaso

The evolution of the practices and strategies of manufacturing management, over the years, has made many companies realign their production systems in order to raise their competitiveness and operational performance. However, in most cases these changes are made in a heterogeneous manner, which ends up leaving the production system without a defined goal, which may end up damaging the managerial strategies of the organization as a whole. Thus, some organizations seek to use techniques and/or successful production practices used by other companies, believing can be able to reproduce the same results. An efficient production system must be fully planned and appropriate to the strategic objectives of the organization. Thus, this paper aims to identify the manufacturing management strategies adopted in paraibanas industries, as well as identify the lean practices used by them. Thus, a qualitative study was conducted, using as methodological basis the multicase study. Were made: direct observations, semi-structured interviews and questionnaires applied to those responsible by the production sector of the participating companies. As a result, it was possible to identify the type of manufacturing management system adopted by companies. Where it was detected that Company A uses a system of Modern Mass Production with focus on productivity and low cost and the Company B is using Lean Manufacturing system focused on quality and diversity. In the two organizations was possible to realize the application of lean practices where the Company what does not use the LM, possessed lean practices in standard extremely mature of utilization.

Gato-do-mato-pequeno (Leopardus tigrinus) na Caatinga: ocupação e padrão de atividade de um felídeo ameaçado e pouco conhecido na floresta tropical seca do nordeste do Brasil

While the carnivores are considered regulators and structuring of natural communities are also extremely threatened by human activities. Endangered little-spotted-cat (Leopardus tigrinus) is one of the lesser known species from the Neotropical cats. In this work we investigate the occupancy and the activity pattern of L. tigrinus in Caatinga of Rio Grande do Norte testing: 1) how environmental and anthropogenic factors influence their occupation and 2) how biotic and abiotic factors influence their activity pattern. For this we raised occurrence data of species in 10 priority areas for conservation. We built hierarchical models of occupancy based on maximum likelihood to represent biological hypotheses which were ranked using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). According to the results the feline occupancy is more likely away from rural settlements and in areas with a higher proportion of woody vegetation. The opportunistic killing of L. tigrinus and in retaliation for poultry predation close to residential areas can explain this result; as well as more complex vegetation structure can better serve as refuge and ensure more food. Analyzing the records of the species through circular statistics we conclude that the activity pattern is mostly nocturnal, although considerable crepuscular and a small diurnal activity. L. tigrinus activity was directly affected by the availability of small terrestrial mammals, which are essentially nocturnal. In addition, the temperatures recorded in the environment directly and indirectly affect the activity of the little-spotted-cat, as also influence the activity of their potential prey. Generally, the cats were more active when possible prey were active, and this happened at night when lower temperatures are recorded. Moreover, the different lunar phases did not affect the activity pattern. The results improve the understanding of an endangered feline inhabiting the Caatinga biome, and thus can help develop conservation and management strategies, as well as in planning future research in this semi-arid ecosystem.

Reserva extrativista Acaú-Goiana: tragédia comum ou decisão coletiva?

In recent years we have observed, in Brazil, the expansion of democratic spaces, providing the use of participatory management strategies in common-pool areas. However, the existence of a co-management model does not guarantee its practice, neither that it will prevent the depletion of common features characterizing the tragedy proposed by Hardin. In this work we analysed the management of Acaú-Goiana RESEX which is located in the cities of Acaú (PB) and Goiana (PE), eight years after its legal creation. We evaluated how much the users of RESEX possess information (even if non formalized) regarding the common use of area and whether they exhibit collectivist values. We used as an interpretative tool the facilitators principles of common resource management (PGRC) identified by Elinor Ostrom and the questionnaire of human values proposed by Schwartz. The human values questionnaire was applied to 240 individuals, half beneficiary and the other half non-beneficiary, only the beneficiaries were submitted to the questionnaire of PGRC. Interviews were conducted in the period of May to September 2014. We tested three hypotheses: 1) The degree of dependence from RESEX resources will play an important role on indirect knowledge of the PGRC; 2) the inclusion of individuals in a communal area (RESEX) increases collectivists values; 3) higher collectivist value rates increases knowledge of PGRC. To this end, we defined levels of socio-economic dependence of RESEX resources, knowledge of PGRC and individual values. GLM statistic analysis of mean comparison and correlation were employed. Our results showed that the knowledge on six of the seven items analyzed in the basic principles (PGRC) is still low. The extended land area and the high number of users may be exerting a detrimental effect on the development of a co-management. Contrary to expected, it was not the dependency who influenced knowledge on the PGRC, but the time spent in contact with the RESEX. This indicates that direct contact with the environment, not the dependence of it, that raises awareness about PGRC. According to our hypothesis, individuals with collectivist values showed greater knowledge of PGRC and reduced hours of work within the RESEX, indicating a greater tendency of individuals refrain their use of the common resource. Individualistic values correlated with less knowledge of a PGRC. Among the beneficiaries, individuals with higher individualistic values had higher monthly income, while among non-beneficiaries there was no such correlation, demonstrating the economic advantages of individualism (free-riding) in situations of non-private use of resources. Our data emphasize the importance of guiding the main actors in the development of a co-participatory management in the direction of the basic principles, and to develop collectivist values among users of a common good can raise awareness of these principles.

Morphometrics of seagrasses at species level, Moreton Bay, Australia determined from core samples collected in 2012-2013

Seagrass meadows are important marine carbon sinks, yet they are threatened and declining worldwide. Seagrass management and conservation requires adequate understanding of the physical and biological factors determining carbon content in seagrass sediments. Here, we identified key factors that influence carbon content in seagrass meadows across several environmental gradients in Moreton Bay, SE Queensland. Sampling was conducted in two regions: (1) Canopy Complexity, 98 sites on the Eastern Banks, where seagrass canopy structure and species composition varied while turbidity was consistently low; and (2) Turbidity Gradient, 11 locations across the entire bay, where turbidity varied among sampling locations. Sediment organic carbon content and seagrass structural complexity (shoot density, leaf area, and species specific characteristics) were measured from shallow sediment and seagrass biomass cores at each location, respectively. Environmental data were obtained from empirical measurements (water quality) and models (wave height). The key factors influencing carbon content in seagrass sediments were seagrass structural complexity, turbidity, water depth, and wave height. In the Canopy Complexity region, carbon content was higher for shallower sites and those with higher seagrass structural complexity. When turbidity varied along the Turbidity Gradient, carbon content was higher at sites with high turbidity. In both regions carbon content was consistently higher in sheltered areas with lower wave height. Seagrass canopy structure, water depth, turbidity, and hydrodynamic setting of seagrass meadows should therefore be considered in conservation and management strategies that aim to maximize sediment carbon content.

Estrutura e dinâmica de perfilhamento do capim-marandu com alturas variáveis no inverno

The livestock system in Brazil mainly uses the pastures as source of food to cattle, and the marandu palisade grass is one of the main forage crop plants. In order to supply the demand of these animals in amount of forage, it is necessary to adopt management strategies aimed at increased forage production with adequate characteristics to animal intake. In this context, is requiered to identify management strategies of defoliation that improve tillering of marandu palisade grass during the seasons. There is a chance that the maintenance of lower marandu palisade grass during the fall and winter compared to spring and summer, increase the incidence of light at the base of the plants and, indeed, encourage tillering and modify the structure of the pasture compared to maintain marandu palisade grass with constant height along these stations.

Hydrological Response of East China to the Variation of East Asian Summer Monsoon

Copyright © 2016 Fuxing Li et al.The sensitivity of hydrologic variables in East China, that is, runoff, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture to the fluctuation of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), is evaluated by the Mann-Kendall correlation analysis on a spatial resolution of 1/4° in the period of 1952-2012. The results indicate remarkable spatial disparities in the correlation between the hydrologic variables and EASM. The regions in East China susceptible to hydrological change due to EASM fluctuation are identified. When the standardized anomaly of intensity index of EASM (EASMI) is above 1.00, the runoff of Haihe basin has increased by 49% on average, especially in the suburb of Beijing and Hebei province where the runoff has increased up to 105%. In contrast, the runoff in the basins of Haihe and Yellow River has decreased by about 27% and 17%, respectively, when the standardized anomaly of EASMI is below -1.00, which has brought severe drought to the areas since mid-1970s. The study can be beneficial for national or watershed agencies developing adaptive water management strategies in the face of global climate change.

An analysis of beginning mentors’ critical incidents in English post-compulsory education: navigating stormy waters

This qualitative study explores the barriers and dilemmas faced by beginning and novice mentors in post-compulsory education in the southeast of England. It analyses critical incidents (Tripp, 2012) taken from the everyday practice of mentors who were supporting new teachers and lecturers in the southeast of England. It categorises different types of critical incidents that mentors encountered and describes the strategies and rationales mentors used to support mentees and (indirectly) their learners and colleagues. The study explores ways in which mentors' own values, beliefs and life experiences affected their mentoring practice.  Methodology As part of a specialist master’s-level professional development module, 21 mentors wrote about two critical incidents (Tripp, 2012) taken from their own professional experiences, which aimed to demonstrate their support for their mentee’s range of complex needs. These critical incidents were written up as short case studies, which justified the rationale for their interventions and demonstrated the mentors' own professional development in mentoring. Critical incidents were used as units of analysis and categorised thematically by topic, sector and mentoring strategies used. Findings The research demonstrated the complex nature of decision-making and the potential for professional learning within a mentoring dyad. The study of these critical incidents found that mentors most frequently cited the controversial nature of teaching observations, the mentor’s role in mediating professional relationships, the importance of inculcating professional dispositions in education, and the need to support new teachers so that they can use effective behaviour management strategies. This study contributes to our understanding of the central importance of mentoring for professional growth within teacher education. It identifies common dilemmas that novice mentors face in post-compulsory education, justifies the rationale for their interventions and mentoring strategies, and helps to identify ways in which mentors' professional development needs can be met. It demonstrates that mentoring is complex, non-linear and mediated by mentors’ motivation and values.

Projecting Changes in the Distribution and Productivity of Living Marine Resources: A Critical Review of the Suite of Modeling Approaches used in the Large European Project VECTORS

We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by fisheries. Statistical (correlative) approaches can be used to detect historical patterns which may not be relevant in the future. Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. New formulations are needed which (depending on the question) will need to strive for more realism in ecophysiology and behaviour of individuals, life history strategies of species, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales. Coupling existing models (e.g. physical, biological, economic) is one avenue that has proven successful. However, fundamental advancements are needed to address key issues such as the adaptive capacity of species/groups and ecosystems. The continued development of end-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) will be critical if we hope to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources including the ecological and economic costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models reviewed here, confidence in projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources will be increased by assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling.