893 resultados para MORTALITY RISK
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Background Depression after myocardial infarction has been associated with increased cardiovascular mortality. This study assessed whether depressive symptoms were associated with adverse outcomes in people with a history of an acute coronary syndrome, and evaluated possible explanations for such an association. Methods and results Depressive symptoms were assessed using the General Health Questionnaire at least 5 months after hospital admission for acute myocardial infarction or unstable angina in 1130 participants of the Long-Term Intervention with Pravastatin in Ischaemic Disease (LIPID) Study, a multicentre, placebo-controlled, clinical trial of cholesterol-lowering treatment. Cardiovascular symptoms, self-rated general health, cardiovascular risk factors, employment status, social support and life events were also assessed at the baseline visit. Cardiovascular death (n=114), non-fatal myocardial infarction (n=108), non-fatal stroke (n=53) and unstable angina (n=274) were documented during a median follow-up period of 8.1 years. Individuals with depressive symptoms (General. Health Questionnaire score greater than or equal to5; 22% of participants) were more likely to report angina, dyspnoea, claudication, poorer general health, not being in paid employment, few social contacts and/or adverse life events (P
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OBJECTIVES We sought to develop and validate a risk score combining both clinical and dobutamine echocardiographic (DbE) features in 4,890 patients who underwent DbE at three expert laboratories and were followed for death or myocardial infarction for up to five years. BACKGROUND In contrast to exercise scores, no score exists to combine clinical, stress, and echocardiographic findings with DbE. METHODS Dobutamine echocardiography was performed for evaluation of known or suspected coronary artery disease in 3,156 patients at two sites in the U.S. After exclusion of patients with incomplete follow-up, 1,456 DbEs were randomly selected to develop a multivariate model for prediction of events. After simplification of each model for clinical use, the models were internally validated in the remaining DbE patients in the same series and externally validated in 1,733 patients in an independent series. RESULTS The following score was derived from regression models in the modeling group (160 events): DbE risk = (age (.) 0.02) + (heart failure + rate-pressure product <15,000) (.) 0.4 + (ischemia + scar) (.) 0.6. The presence of each variable was scored as 1 and its absence scored as 0, except for age (continuous variable). Using cutoff values of 1.2 and 2.6, patients were classified into groups with five-year event-free survivals >95%, 75% to 95%, and <75%. Application of the score in the internal validation group (265 events) gave equivalent results, as did its application in the external validation group (494 events, C index = 0.72). CONCLUSIONS A risk score based on clinical and echocardiographic data may be used to quantify the risk of events in patients undergoing DbE. (C) 2004 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation.
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PURPOSE: To determine the efficacy of exercise training and its effects on outcomes in patients with heart failure. METHODS: MEDLINE, Medscape, and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Registry were searched for trials of exercise training in heart failure patients. Data relating to training protocol, exercise capacity, and outcome measures were extracted and reviewed. RESULTS: A total of 81 studies were identified: 30 randomized controlled trials, five nonrandomized controlled trials, nine randomized crossover trials, and 37 longitudinal cohort studies. Exercise training was performed in 2387 patients. The average increment in peak oxygen consumption was 17% in 57 studies that measured oxygen consumption directly, 17% in 40 studies of aerobic training, 9% in three studies that only used strength training, 15% in 13 studies of combined aerobic and strength training, and 16% in the one study on inspiratory training. There were no reports of deaths that were directly related to exercise during more than 60,000 patient-hours of exercise training. During the training and follow-up periods of the randomized controlled trials, there were 56 combined (deaths or adverse events) events in the exercise groups and 75 combined events in the control groups (odds ratio [OR] = 0.98; 95% confidence interval [Cl]: 0.61 to 1.32; P = 0.60). During this same period, 26 exercising and 41 nonexercising subjects died (OR = 0.71; 95% CT: 0.37 to 1.02; P = 0.06). CONCLUSION: Exercise training is safe and effective in patients with heart failure. The risk of adverse events may be reduced, but further studies are required to determine whether there is any mortality benefit. (C) 2004 by Excerpta Medica Inc.
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Background: Smoking has been causally associated with increased mortality from several diseases, and has increased considerably in many developing countries in the past few decades. Mortality attributable to smoking in the year 2000 was estimated for adult males and females, including estimates by age and for specific diseases in 14 epidemiological subregions of the world. Methods: Lung cancer mortality was used as an indirect marker of the accumulated hazard of smoking. Never-smoker lung cancer mortality was estimated based on the household use of coal with poor ventilation. Estimates of mortality caused by smoking were made for lung cancer, upper aerodigestive cancer, all other cancers, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease ( COPD), other respiratory diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and selected other medical causes. Estimates were limited to ages 30 years and above. Results: In 2000, an estimated 4.83 million premature deaths in the world were attributable to smoking, 2.41 million in developing countries and 2.43 million in industrialised countries. There were 3.84 million male deaths and 1.00 million female deaths attributable to smoking. 2.69 million smoking attributable deaths were between the ages of 30 - 69 years, and 2.14 million were 70 years of age and above. The leading causes of death from smoking in industrialised regions were cardiovascular diseases ( 1.02 million deaths), lung cancer (0.52 million deaths), and COPD (0.31 million deaths), and in the developing world cardiovascular diseases (0.67 million deaths), COPD (0.65 million deaths), and lung cancer (0.33 million deaths). The share of male and female deaths and younger and older adult deaths, and of various diseases in total smoking attributable deaths exhibited large inter-regional heterogeneity, especially in the developing world. Conclusions: Smoking was an important cause of global mortality in 2000, affecting a large number of diseases. Age, sex, and disease patterns of smoking-caused mortality varied greatly across regions, due to both historical and current smoking patterns, and the presence of other risk factors that affect background mortality from specific diseases.
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Objective: Whole-body skin self-examination (SSE) with presentation of suspicious lesions to a physician may improve early detection of melanoma. The aim of this study was to establish the prevalence and determinants of SSE in a high-risk population in preparation for a community-based randomised controlled trial of screening for melanoma. Methods: A telephone survey reached 3110 residents older than 30 years (overall response rate of 66.9%) randomly selected from 18 regional communities in Queensland, Australia. Results: Overall, 804 (25.9%) participants reported whole-body SSE within the past 12 months and 1055 (33.9%) within the past three years. Whole-body SSE was associated in multivariate logistic regression analysis with younger age (< 50 years); higher education; having received either a whole-body skin examination, recommendation or instruction on SSE by a primary care physician; giving skin checks a high priority; concern about skin cancer and a personal history of skin cancer. Conclusion: Overall, the prevalence of SSE in the present study is among the highest yet observed in Australia, with about one-third of the adult population reporting whole-body SSE in the past three years. People over 50 years, who are at relatively higher risk for skin cancer, currently perform SSE less frequently than younger people.
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In the United States and several other countries., the development of population viability analyses (PVA) is a legal requirement of any species survival plan developed for threatened and endangered species. Despite the importance of pathogens in natural populations, little attention has been given to host-pathogen dynamics in PVA. To study the effect of infectious pathogens on extinction risk estimates generated from PVA, we review and synthesize the relevance of host-pathogen dynamics in analyses of extinction risk. We then develop a stochastic, density-dependent host-parasite model to investigate the effects of disease on the persistence of endangered populations. We show that this model converges on a Ricker model of density dependence under a suite of limiting assumptions, including. a high probability that epidemics will arrive and occur. Using this modeling framework, we then quantify: (1) dynamic differences between time series generated by disease and Ricker processes with the same parameters; (2) observed probabilities of quasi-extinction for populations exposed to disease or self-limitation; and (3) bias in probabilities of quasi-extinction estimated by density-independent PVAs when populations experience either form of density dependence. Our results suggest two generalities about the relationships among disease, PVA, and the management of endangered species. First, disease more strongly increases variability in host abundance and, thus, the probability of quasi-extinction, than does self-limitation. This result stems from the fact that the effects and the probability of occurrence of disease are both density dependent. Second, estimates of quasi-extinction are more often overly optimistic for populations experiencing disease than for those subject to self-limitation. Thus, although the results of density-independent PVAs may be relatively robust to some particular assumptions about density dependence, they are less robust when endangered populations are known to be susceptible to disease. If potential management actions involve manipulating pathogens, then it may be useful to. model disease explicitly.
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Purpose: Several occupational carcinogens are metabolized by polymorphic enzymes. The distribution of the polymorphic enzymes N-acetyltransferase 2 (NAT2; substrates: aromatic amines), glutathione S-transferase M1 (GSTM1; substrates: e.g., reactive metabolites of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons), and glutathione S-transferase T1 (GSTT1; substrates: small molecules with 1 - 2 carbon atoms) were investigated. Material and Methods: At the urological department in Lutherstadt Wittenberg, 136 patients with a histologically proven transitional cell cancer of the urinary bladder were investigated for all occupations performed for more than 6 months. Several occupational and non-occupational risk factors were asked. The genotypes of NAT2, GSTM1, and GSTT1 were determined from leucocyte DNA by PCR. Results: Compared to the general population in Middle Europe, the percentage of GSTT1 negative persons (22.1%) was ordinary; the percentage of slow acetylators (59.6%) was in the upper normal range, while the percentage of GSTM1 negative persons (58.8%) was elevated in the entire group. Shifts in the distribution of the genotypes were observed in subgroups who had been exposed to asbestos (6/6 GSTM1 negative, 5/6 slow acetylators), rubber manufacturing (8/10 GSTM1 negative), and chlorinated solvents (9/15 GSTM1 negative). Conclusions: The overrepresentation of GSTM1 negative bladder cancer patients also in this industrialized area and more pronounced in several occupationally exposed subgroups points to an impact of the GSTM1 negative genotype in bladder carcinogenesis.
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Objectives To assess the associations between three measurements of socioeconomic position (SEP) - education, occupation and ability to cope on available income - and cardiovascular risk factors in three age cohorts of Australian women. Methods Cross-sectional analysis of three cohorts of Australian women aged 18-23, 45-50 and 70-75 years. Results In general, for all exposures and in all three cohorts, the odds of each adverse risk factor (smoking, obesity and physical inactivity) were lower in the most advantaged compared with the least advantaged. Within each of the three cohorts, the effects of each measurement of SEP on the outcomes were similar. There were, however, some notable between-cohort differences. The most marked differences were those with smoking. For women aged 70-75 (older), those with the highest educational attainment were more likely to have ever smoked than those with the lowest level of attainment. However, for the other two cohorts, this association was reversed, with a stronger association between low levels of education and ever smoking among those aged 18-23 (younger) than those aged 45-50 (mid-age). Similarly, for older women, those in the most skilled occupational classes were most likely to have ever smoked, with opposite findings for mid-age women. Education was also differently associated with physical inactivity across the three cohorts. Older women who were most educated were least likely to be physically inactive, whereas among the younger and mid-age cohorts there was little or no effect of education on physical inactivity. Conclusion These findings demonstrate the dynamic nature of the association between SEP and some health outcomes. Our findings do not appear to confirm previous suggestions that prestige-based measurements of SEP are more strongly associated with health-related behaviours than measurements that reflect material and psychosocial resources.
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Background and Purpose - The cause of subarachnoid hemorrhage ( SAH) is poorly understood and there are few large cohort studies of risk factors for SAH. We investigated the risk of SAH mortality and morbidity associated with common cardiovascular risk factors in the Asia-Pacific region and examined whether the strengths of these associations were different in Asian and Australasian ( predominantly white) populations. Methods - Cohort studies were identified from Internet electronic databases, searches of proceedings of meetings, and personal communication. Hazard ratios (HRs) for systolic blood pressure (SBP), current smoking, total serum cholesterol, body mass index (BMI), and alcohol drinking were calculated from Cox models that were stratified by sex and cohort and adjusted for age at risk. Results - Individual participant data from 26 prospective cohort studies ( total number of participants 306 620) that reported incident cases of SAH ( fatal and/or nonfatal) were available for analysis. During the median follow-up period of 8.2 years, a total of 236 incident cases of SAH were observed. Current smoking (HR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.8 to 3.4) and SBP > 140 mm Hg ( HR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.5 to 2.7) were significant and independent risk factors for SAH. Attributable risks of SAH associated with current smoking and elevated SBP ( similar to 140 mm Hg) were 29% and 19%, respectively. There were no significant associations between the risk of SAH and cholesterol, BMI, or drinking alcohol. The strength of the associations of the common cardiovascular risk factors with the risk of SAH did not differ much between Asian and Australasian regions. Conclusions - Cigarette smoking and SBP are the most important risk factors for SAH in the Asia-Pacific region.
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Background: Indigenous Australians are at high risk for cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes. Carotid artery intimal medial thickness (CIMT) and brachial artery flow-mediated vasodilation (FMD) are ultrasound imaging based surrogate markers of cardiovascular risk. This study examines the relative contributions of traditional cardiovascular risk factors on CIMT and FMD in adult Indigenous Australians with and without type 2 diabetes mellitus. Method: One hundred and nineteen Indigenous Australians were recruited. Physical and biochemical markers of cardiovascular risk, together with CIMT and FMD were meausred for all subjects. Results: Fifty-three Indigenous Australians subjects (45%) had type 2 diabetes mellitus. There was a significantly greater mean CIMT in diabetic versus non-diabetic subjects (p = 0.049). In the non-diabetic group with non-parametric analyses, there were significant correlations between CIMT and: age (r = 0.64, p < 0.001), systolic blood pressure (r = 0.47, p < 0.001) and non-smokers (r = -0.30, p = 0.018). In the diabetic group, non-parametric analysis showed correlations between CIMT, age (r = 0.36, p = 0.009) and duration of diabetes (r = 0.30, p = 0.035) only. Adjusting forage, sex, smoking and history of cardiovascular disease, Hb(A1c) became the sole significant correlate of CIMT (r = 0.35,p = 0.01) in the diabetic group. In non-parametric analysis, age was the sole significant correlate of FMD (r = -0.31,p = 0.013), and only in non-diabetic subjects. Linear regression analysis showed significant associations between CIMT and age (t = 4.6,p < 0.001), systolic blood pressure (t = 2.6, p = 0.010) and Hb(A1c) (t = 2.6, p = 0.012), smoking (t = 2.1, p = 0.04) and fasting LDL-cholesterol (t = 2.1, p = 0.04). There were no significant associations between FMD and examined cardiovascular risk factors with linear regression analysis Conclusions: CIMT appears to be a useful surrogate marker of cardiovascular risk in this sample of Indigenous Australian subjects, correlating better than FMD with established cardiovascular risk factors. A lifestyle intervention programme may alleviate the burden of cardiovascular disease in Indigenous Australians by reducing central obesity, lowering blood pressure, correcting dyslipidaemia and improving glycaemic control. CIMT may prove to be a useful tool to assess efficacy of such an intervention programme. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Background-Elevated serum inflammatory marker levels are associated with a greater long-term risk of cardiovascular events. Because 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme-A reductase inhibitors (statins) may have an antiinflammatory action, it has been suggested that patients with elevated inflammatory marker levels may have a greater reduction in cardiovascular risk with statin treatment. Methods and Results-We evaluated the association between the white blood cell count (WBC) and coronary heart disease mortality during a mean follow-up of 6.0 years in the Long-Term Intervention With Pravastatin in Ischemic Disease (LIPID) Study, a clinical trial comparing pravastatin (40 mg/d) with a placebo in 9014 stable patients with previous myocardial infarction or unstable angina. An increase in baseline WBC was associated with greater coronary heart disease mortality in patients randomized to placebo (hazard ratio for 1 X 10(9)/L increase in WBC, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.25; P<0.001) but not pravastatin (hazard ratio, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.96 to 1.09; P=0.56; P for interaction=0.004). The numbers of coronary heart disease deaths prevented per 1000 patients treated with pravastatin were 0, 9, 30, and 38 for baseline WBC quartiles of <5.9, 6.0 to 6.9, 7.0 to 8.1, and >8.2X10(9)/L, respectively. WBC was a stronger predictor of this treatment benefit than the ratio of total to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and a global measure of cardiac risk. There was also a greater reduction (P=0.052) in the combined incidence of cardiovascular mortality, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and stroke with pravastatin as baseline WBC increased ( by quartile: 3, 41, 61, and 60 events prevented per 1000 patients treated, respectively). Conclusions-These data support the hypothesis that individuals with evidence of inflammation may obtain a greater benefit from statin therapy.
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Background and Purpose. The re-admission of patients to intensive care is associated with increased morbidity, mortality, loss of morale for patients and family, and increased health costs. The aim of the present study was to identify factors which place patients at a higher risk of re-admission to intensive care. Method. A prospective study of patients who were re-admitted to a 22-bed tertiary level intensive care facility within a 12-month period. Data were kept on every patient re-admitted to intensive care, including standard demographic data, initial admission diagnosis, co-morbidities, re-admission diagnosis, mobility on discharge, secretions, airway, chest X-ray, PaCO2, PaO2, PaO2/FiO2and time of discharge. Subjects included 74 patients who had been re-admitted to intensive care in a 12-month period and a comparison group of patients who were not re-admitted to intensive care. A cross-tabs procedure was initially used to estimate maximum likelihood. Significant factors with an value of 65 years (p