Cost of wind energy: comparing distant wind resources to local resources in the midwestern United States.

The best wind sites in the United States are often located far from electricity demand centers and lack transmission access. Local sites that have lower quality wind resources but do not require as much power transmission capacity are an alternative to distant wind resources. In this paper, we explore the trade-offs between developing new wind generation at local sites and installing wind farms at remote sites. We first examine the general relationship between the high capital costs required for local wind development and the relatively lower capital costs required to install a wind farm capable of generating the same electrical output at a remote site,with the results representing the maximum amount an investor should be willing to pay for transmission access. We suggest that this analysis can be used as a first step in comparing potential wind resources to meet a state renewable portfolio standard (RPS). To illustrate, we compare the cost of local wind (∼50 km from the load) to the cost of distant wind requiring new transmission (∼550-750 km from the load) to meet the Illinois RPS. We find that local, lower capacity factor wind sites are the lowest cost option for meeting the Illinois RPS if new long distance transmission is required to access distant, higher capacity factor wind resources. If higher capacity wind sites can be connected to the existing grid at minimal cost, in many cases they will have lower costs.

Assessing variability and long-term trends in burned area by merging multiple satellite fire products

Long term, high quality estimates of burned area are needed for improving both prognostic and diagnostic fire emissions models and for assessing feedbacks between fire and the climate system. We developed global, monthly burned area estimates aggregated to 0.5° spatial resolution for the time period July 1996 through mid-2009 using four satellite data sets. From 2001ĝ€ "2009, our primary data source was 500-m burned area maps produced using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface reflectance imagery; more than 90% of the global area burned during this time period was mapped in this fashion. During times when the 500-m MODIS data were not available, we used a combination of local regression and regional regression trees developed over periods when burned area and Terra MODIS active fire data were available to indirectly estimate burned area. Cross-calibration with fire observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS) and the Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) allowed the data set to be extended prior to the MODIS era. With our data set we estimated that the global annual area burned for the years 1997ĝ€ "2008 varied between 330 and 431 Mha, with the maximum occurring in 1998. We compared our data set to the recent GFED2, L3JRC, GLOBCARBON, and MODIS MCD45A1 global burned area products and found substantial differences in many regions. Lastly, we assessed the interannual variability and long-term trends in global burned area over the past 13 years. This burned area time series serves as the basis for the third version of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED3) estimates of trace gas and aerosol emissions.

Design and Emergence in the Making of American Grand Strategy

The main research question of this thesis is how do grand strategies form. Grand strategy is defined as a state's coherent and consistent pattern of behavior over a long period of time in search of an overarching goal. The political science literature usually explains the formation of grand strategies by using a planning (or design) model. In this dissertation, I use primary sources, interviews with former government officials, and historical scholarship to show that the formation of grand strategy is better understood using a model of emergent learning imported from the business world. My two case studies examine the formation of American grand strategy during the Cold War and the post-Cold War eras. The dissertation concludes that in both these strategic eras the dominating grand strategies were formed primarily by emergent learning rather than flowing from advanced designs.

Contracting Freedom: Governance and East Indian Indenture in the British Atlantic, 1838-1917

This is a dissertation about identity and governance, and how they are mutually constituted. Between 1838 and 1917, the British brought approximately half a million East Indian laborers to the Atlantic to work on sugar plantations. The dissertation argues that contrary to previous historiographical assumptions, indentured East Indians were an amorphous mass of people drawn from various regions of British India. They were brought together not by their innate "Indian-ness" upon their arrival in the Caribbean, but by the common experience of indenture recruitment, transportation and plantation life. Ideas of innate "Indian-ness" were products of an imperial discourse that emerged from and shaped official approaches to governing East Indians in the Atlantic. Government officials and planters promoted visions of East Indians as "primitive" subjects who engaged in child marriage and wife murder. Officials mobilized ideas about gender to sustain racialized stereotypes of East Indian subjects. East Indian women were thought to be promiscuous, and East Indian men were violent and depraved (especially in response to East Indian women's promiscuity). By pointing to these stereotypes about East Indians, government officials and planters could highlight the promise of indenture as a civilizing mechanism. This dissertation links the study of governance and subject formation to complicate ideas of colonial rule as static. It uncovers how colonial processes evolved to handle the challenges posed by migrant populations.

The primary architects of indenture, Caribbean governments, the British Colonial Office, and planters hoped that East Indian indentured laborers would form a stable and easily-governed labor force. They anticipated that the presence of these laborers would undermine the demands of Afro-Creole workers for higher wages and shorter working hours. Indenture, however, was controversial among British liberals who saw it as potentially hindering the creation of a free labor market, and abolitionists who also feared that indenture was a new form of slavery. Using court records, newspapers, legislative documents, bureaucratic correspondence, memoirs, novels, and travel accounts from archives and libraries in Britain, Guyana, and Trinidad and Tobago, this dissertation explores how indenture was envisioned and constantly re-envisioned in response to its critics. It chronicles how the struggles between the planter class and the colonial state for authority over indentured laborers affected the way that indenture functioned in the British Atlantic. In addition to focusing on indenture's official origins, this dissertation examines the actions of East Indian indentured subjects as they are recorded in the imperial archive to explore how these people experienced indenture.

Indenture contracts were central to the justification of indenture and to the creation of a pliable labor force in the Atlantic. According to English common law, only free parties could enter into contracts. Indenture contracts limited the period of indenture and affirmed that laborers would be remunerated for their labor. While the architects of indenture pointed to contracts as evidence that indenture was not slavery, contracts in reality prevented laborers from participating in the free labor market and kept the wages of indentured laborers low. Further, in late nineteenth-century Britain, contracts were civil matters. In the British Atlantic, indentured laborers who violated the terms of their contracts faced criminal trials and their associated punishments such as imprisonment and hard labor. Officials used indenture contracts to exploit the labor and limit the mobility of indentured laborers in a manner that was reminiscent of slavery but that instead established indentured laborers as subjects with limited rights. The dissertation chronicles how indenture contracts spawned a complex inter-imperial bureaucracy in British India, Britain, and the Caribbean that was responsible for the transportation and governance of East Indian indentured laborers overseas.

Sensory information and associative cues used in food detection by wild vervet monkeys.

Understanding animals' spatial perception is a critical step toward discerning their cognitive processes. The spatial sense is multimodal and based on both the external world and mental representations of that world. Navigation in each species depends upon its evolutionary history, physiology, and ecological niche. We carried out foraging experiments on wild vervet monkeys (Chlorocebus pygerythrus) at Lake Nabugabo, Uganda, to determine the types of cues used to detect food and whether associative cues could be used to find hidden food. Our first and second set of experiments differentiated between vervets' use of global spatial cues (including the arrangement of feeding platforms within the surrounding vegetation) and/or local layout cues (the position of platforms relative to one another), relative to the use of goal-object cues on each platform. Our third experiment provided an associative cue to the presence of food with global spatial, local layout, and goal-object cues disguised. Vervets located food above chance levels when goal-object cues and associative cues were present, and visual signals were the predominant goal-object cues that they attended to. With similar sample sizes and methods as previous studies on New World monkeys, vervets were not able to locate food using only global spatial cues and local layout cues, unlike all five species of platyrrhines thus far tested. Relative to these platyrrhines, the spatial location of food may need to stay the same for a longer time period before vervets encode this information, and goal-object cues may be more salient for them in small-scale space.

Furnishing a Globalized World: Local Distinctiveness in the International Furniture Industry

Advances in technology, communication, and transportation over the past thirty years have led to tighter linkages and enhanced collaboration across traditional borders between nations, institutions, and cultures. This thesis uses the furniture industry as a lens to examine the impacts of globalization on individual countries and companies as they interact on an international scale. Using global value chain analysis and international trade data, I break down the furniture production process and explore how countries have specialized in particular stages of production to differentiate themselves from competitors and maximize the benefits of global involvement. Through interviews with company representatives and evaluation of branding strategies such as advertisements, webpages, and partnerships, I investigate across four country cases how furniture companies construct strong brands in an effort to stand out as unique to consumers with access to products made around the globe. Branding often serves to highlight distinctiveness and associate companies with national identities, thus revealing that in today’s globalized and interconnected society, local differences and diversity are more significant than ever.

Local kinetic interpretation of entropy production through reversed diffusion.

The time reversal of stochastic diffusion processes is revisited with emphasis on the physical meaning of the time-reversed drift and the noise prescription in the case of multiplicative noise. The local kinematics and mechanics of free diffusion are linked to the hydrodynamic description. These properties also provide an interpretation of the Pope-Ching formula for the steady-state probability density function along with a geometric interpretation of the fluctuation-dissipation relation. Finally, the statistics of the local entropy production rate of diffusion are discussed in the light of local diffusion properties, and a stochastic differential equation for entropy production is obtained using the Girsanov theorem for reversed diffusion. The results are illustrated for the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.

Computational Methods for RNA Structure Validation and Improvement.

With increasing recognition of the roles RNA molecules and RNA/protein complexes play in an unexpected variety of biological processes, understanding of RNA structure-function relationships is of high current importance. To make clean biological interpretations from three-dimensional structures, it is imperative to have high-quality, accurate RNA crystal structures available, and the community has thoroughly embraced that goal. However, due to the many degrees of freedom inherent in RNA structure (especially for the backbone), it is a significant challenge to succeed in building accurate experimental models for RNA structures. This chapter describes the tools and techniques our research group and our collaborators have developed over the years to help RNA structural biologists both evaluate and achieve better accuracy. Expert analysis of large, high-resolution, quality-conscious RNA datasets provides the fundamental information that enables automated methods for robust and efficient error diagnosis in validating RNA structures at all resolutions. The even more crucial goal of correcting the diagnosed outliers has steadily developed toward highly effective, computationally based techniques. Automation enables solving complex issues in large RNA structures, but cannot circumvent the need for thoughtful examination of local details, and so we also provide some guidance for interpreting and acting on the results of current structure validation for RNA.

New tools provide a second look at HDV ribozyme structure, dynamics and cleavage.

The hepatitis delta virus (HDV) ribozyme is a self-cleaving RNA enzyme essential for processing viral transcripts during rolling circle viral replication. The first crystal structure of the cleaved ribozyme was solved in 1998, followed by structures of uncleaved, mutant-inhibited and ion-complexed forms. Recently, methods have been developed that make the task of modeling RNA structure and dynamics significantly easier and more reliable. We have used ERRASER and PHENIX to rebuild and re-refine the cleaved and cis-acting C75U-inhibited structures of the HDV ribozyme. The results correct local conformations and identify alternates for RNA residues, many in functionally important regions, leading to improved R values and model validation statistics for both structures. We compare the rebuilt structures to a higher resolution, trans-acting deoxy-inhibited structure of the ribozyme, and conclude that although both inhibited structures are consistent with the currently accepted hammerhead-like mechanism of cleavage, they do not add direct structural evidence to the biochemical and modeling data. However, the rebuilt structures (PDBs: 4PR6, 4PRF) provide a more robust starting point for research on the dynamics and catalytic mechanism of the HDV ribozyme and demonstrate the power of new techniques to make significant improvements in RNA structures that impact biologically relevant conclusions.

Improving the Timeliness and Response to an Aerosolizedanthrax Attack in the Metropolitan Washington, D.C. Region

Our research was conducted to improve the timeliness, coordination, and communication during the detection, investigation and decision-making phases of the response to an aerosolized anthrax attack in the metropolitan Washington, DC, area with the goal of reducing casualties. Our research gathered information of the current response protocols through an extensive literature review and interviews with relevant officials and experts in order to identify potential problems that may exist in various steps of the detection, investigation, and response. Interviewing officials from private and government sector agencies allowed the development of a set of models of interactions and a communication network to identify discrepancies and redundancies that would elongate the delay time in initiating a public health response. In addition, we created a computer simulation designed to model an aerosol spread using weather patterns and population density to identify an estimated population of infected individuals within a target region depending on the virulence and dimensions of the weaponized spores. We developed conceptual models in order to design recommendations that would be presented to our collaborating contacts and agencies that would use such policy and analysis interventions to improve upon the overall response to an aerosolized anthrax attack, primarily through changes to emergency protocol functions and suggestions of technological detection and monitoring response to an aerosolized anthrax attack.

Forward and inverse transport of particulate matter and gaseous pollutants affecting the region bordering the English Channel

The ATTMA "Aerosol Transport in the Trans-Manche Atmosphere" project investigates the transportation and dispersion of air pollutants across the English Channel, in collaboration with local authorities and other Universities in Southern England and Northern France. The research is concerned with both forward and inverse (receptor based) tracking. Two alternative dispersion simulation methods are used: (a) Lagrangian Particle Dispersion (LPD) models, (b) Eulerian Finite Volume type models. This paper is concerned with part (a), the simulations based on LPD models. Two widely applied LPD models are used and compared. Since in many observed episodes the source of pollution is traced outside the region of interest, long range, trans-continental transport is also investigated.

The Olympic Games and urban displacement: the case of Beijing

Urban spectacles such as the Olympic Games have been long perceived as being able to impose desired effects in the city that act as host. This kind of urban boost may include the creation of new jobs and revenue for local community, growth in tourism and convention business, improvements to city infrastructure and environment, and the stimulation of broad reform in the social, political and institutional realm. Nevertheless at the other end of the debate, the potentially detrimental impacts of Olympic urban development, particularly on disadvantaged and vulnerable groups, have also been increasingly noticed in recent years and subsequently cited by a number of high profile anti-Olympic groups to campaign against Olympic bids and awards. The common areas of concern over Olympic-related projects include the cost and debts risk, environmental threat, the occurrence of social imbalance, and disruption and disturbance of existing community life. Among these issues, displacement of low income households and squatter communities resulting from Olympic-inspired urban renewal are comparatively under-explored and have emerged as an imperative area for research inquiry. This is particularly the case where many other problems have become less prominent. Changing a city’s demographic landscape, particularly displacing lower income people from the area proposed for a profitable development is a highly contentious matter in its own right. Some see it as a natural and inevitable outgrowth of the process of urban evolution, without which cities cannot move towards a more attractive location for consumption-based business. Others believe it reflects urban crises and conflicts, highlighting the market failures, polarization and injustice. Regardless of perception,these phenomena are visible everywhere in post-industrial cities and particularly cannot be ignored when planning for the Olympic Games and other mega-events. The aim of this paper is to start the process of placing the displacement issue in the context of Olympic preparation and to seek a better understanding of their interrelations. In order to develop a better understanding of this issue in terms of cause, process, influential factors and its implication on planning policy, this paper studies the topic from both theoretic and empirical angles. It portrays various situations where the Olympics may trigger or facilitate displacement in host cities during the preparation of the Games, identifies several major variables that may affect the process and the overall outcome, and explores what could be learnt in generic terms for planning Olympic oriented infrastructure so that ill-effects to the local community can be effectively controlled. The paper concludes that the selection of development sites, the integration of Olympic facilities with the city’s fabric, the diversity of housing type produced for local residents and the dynamics of the new socioeconomic structure.

A new 14+: vocational diplomas and the future of schools, colleges and universities. An educational and campaigning pamphlet

Written in an accessible and campaigning style, this pamphlet affords a valuable context to the introduction of the first group of specialist diplomas for 14 year olds in September 2008. The diplomas are the latest in a line of failed initiatives that have sought to provide vocational ‘alternatives’ for those young people staying in full-time education and not considered ‘academic’. Rather than developing any useful employment skills, Allen and Ainley argue that their introduction reflects the changing significance of education in the division and social control of learners that now extends from school to college and on to university. Those who are opposed to the current post-14 agenda, must not only put forward radical alternatives to the current curriculum offer but also, the authors argue, address issues of democracy and accountability. To do this, teacher trade unionists must make new types of alliances with local communities and also with their students.

Long-Term Oceanographic and Ecological Research in the Western English Channel

Long-term research in the western English Channel, undertaken by the marine laboratories in Plymouth, is described and details of survey methods, sites, and time series given in this chapter. Major findings are summarized and their limitations outlined. Current research, with recent reestablishment and expansion of many sampling programmes, is presented, and possible future approaches are indicated. These unique long-term data sets provide an environmental baseline for predicting complex ecological responses to local, regional, and global environmental change. Between 1888 and the present, investigations have been carried out into the physical, chemical, and biological components (ranging from plankton and fish to benthic and intertidal assemblages) of the western English Channel ecosystem. The Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom has performed the main body of these observations. More recent contributions come from the Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey, now the Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, dating from 1957; the Institute for Marine Environmental Research, from 1974 to 1987; and the Plymouth Marine Laboratory, which was formed by amalgamation of the Institute for Marine Environmental Research and part of the Marine Biological Association, from 1988. Together, these contributions constitute a unique data series; one of the longest and most comprehensive samplings of environmental and marine biological variables in the world. Since the termination of many of these time series in 1987-1988 during a reorganisation of UK marine research, there has been a resurgence of interest in long-term environmental change. Many programmes have been restarted and expanded with support from several agencies. The observations span significant periods of warming (1921-1961; 1985-present) and cooling (1962-1980). During these periods of change, the abundance of key species underwent dramatic shifts. The first period of warming saw changes in zooplankton, pelagic fish, and larval fish, including the collapse of an important herring fishery. During later periods of change, shifts in species abundances have been reflected in other assemblages, such as the intertidal zone and the benthic fauna. Many of these changes appear to be related to climate, manifested as temperature changes, acting directly or indirectly. The hypothesis that climate is a forcing factor is widely supported today and has been reinforced by recent studies that show responses of marine organisms to climatic attributes such as the strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The long-term data also yield important insights into the effects of anthropogenic disturbances such as fisheries exploitation and pollution. Comparison of demersal fish hauls over time highlights fisheries effects not only on commercially important species but also on the entire demersal community. The effects of acute ("Torrey Canyon" oil spill) and chronic (tributyltin [TBT] antifoulants) pollution are clearly seen in the intertidal records. Significant advances in diverse scientific disciplines have been generated from research undertaken alongside the long-term data series.

Long-term changes in the pelagos, benthos and fisheries of the North Sea

Pronounced changes have occurred in the fisheries, plankton and benthos of the North Sea over the last five decades. Attribution of the relative contribution of anthropogenic versus natural hydrometeorological modulation to these changes is still unclear. As a background a summary history of our understanding of the state of health of the North Sea is outlined. We then focus on two contrasting periods in the North Sea, one between 1978-82 (cold) and the other post 1987 (warm) when pronounced alterations in many ecosystem characteristics occurred. The scale of the changes in the second of these periods is sufficiently large and wide ranging for it to have been termed a regime shift. A combination of local, regional and far field hydrometeorological forcing, and in particular variability in oceanic inflow, is believed to be responsible for the observed changes. Finally attention is drawn to the poor status of North Sea fish stocks where 7 stocks are documented as being fished outside safe biological limits. This situation is primarily believed to be a consequence of overfishing, but may have been exacerbated by environmental change.