Can a website-delivered computer-tailored physical activity intervention be acceptable, usable, and effective for older people?

Despite the numerous health benefits, population physical activity levels are low and declining with age. A continued increase of Internet access allows for website-delivered interventions to be implemented across age-groups, though older people have typically not been considered for this type of intervention. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to evaluate a website-delivered computer-tailored physical activity intervention, with a specific focus on differences in tailored advice acceptability, website usability, and physical activity change between three age-groups. To mimic "real-life" conditions, the intervention, which provided personalized physical activity feedback delivered via the Internet, was implemented and evaluated without any personal contact for the entire duration of the study. Data were collected online at baseline, 1-week, and 1-month follow-up and analyzed for three age-groups (≤44, 45-59, and ≥60 years) using linear mixed models. Overall, 803 adults received the intervention and 288 completed all measures. The oldest age-group increased physical activity more than the other two groups, spent the most time on the website, though had significantly lower perceived Internet self-confidence scores when compared with the youngest age-group. No differences were found in terms of website usability and tailored advice acceptability. These results suggest that website-delivered physical activity interventions can be suitable and effective for older aged adults.

Stable virulence levels in the HIV epidemic of Switzerland over two decades

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the virulence of HIV-1 has been changing since its introduction into Switzerland. DESIGN: A prospective cohort study of HIV-1 infected individuals with well-characterized pre-therapy disease history. METHODS: To minimize the effect of recently imported viruses and ethnicity-associated host factors, the analysis was restricted to the white, north-west-European majority population of the cohort. Virulence was characterized by the decline slope of the CD4 cell count (n = 817 patients), the decline slope of the CD4:CD8 ratio (n = 815 patients) and the viral setpoint (n = 549 patients) in untreated patients with sufficient data points. Linear regression models were used to detect correlations between the date of diagnosis (ranging between 1984 and 2003) and the virulence markers, controlling for gender, exposure category, age and CD4 cell count at entry. RESULTS: We found no correlation between any of the virulence markers and the date of diagnosis. Inspection of short-term trends confirmed that virulence has fluctuated around a stable level over time. CONCLUSIONS: The lack of long-term time trends in the virulence markers indicates that HIV-1 is not evolving towards increasing or decreasing virulence at a perceptible rate. Both highly virulent and attenuated strains have apparently been unable to spread at the population level. This result suggests that either the evolution of virulence may be slow or inhibited due to evolutionary constraints, or HIV-1 may have already evolved to optimal virulence in the human host.

UMTS base station-like exposure, well-being, and cognitive performance

BACKGROUND: Radio-frequency electromagnetic fields (RF EMF) of mobile communication systems are widespread in the living environment, yet their effects on humans are uncertain despite a growing body of literature. OBJECTIVES: We investigated the influence of a Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS) base station-like signal on well-being and cognitive performance in subjects with and without self-reported sensitivity to RF EMF. METHODS: We performed a controlled exposure experiment (45 min at an electric field strength of 0, 1, or 10 V/m, incident with a polarization of 45 degrees from the left back side of the subject, weekly intervals) in a randomized, double-blind crossover design. A total of 117 healthy subjects (33 self-reported sensitive, 84 nonsensitive subjects) participated in the study. We assessed well-being, perceived field strength, and cognitive performance with questionnaires and cognitive tasks and conducted statistical analyses using linear mixed models. Organ-specific and brain tissue-specific dosimetry including uncertainty and variation analysis was performed. RESULTS: In both groups, well-being and perceived field strength were not associated with actual exposure levels. We observed no consistent condition-induced changes in cognitive performance except for two marginal effects. At 10 V/m we observed a slight effect on speed in one of six tasks in the sensitive subjects and an effect on accuracy in another task in nonsensitive subjects. Both effects disappeared after multiple end point adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to a recent Dutch study, we could not confirm a short-term effect of UMTS base station-like exposure on well-being. The reported effects on brain functioning were marginal and may have occurred by chance. Peak spatial absorption in brain tissue was considerably smaller than during use of a mobile phone. No conclusions can be drawn regarding short-term effects of cell phone exposure or the effects of long-term base station-like exposure on human health.

Sleepless night, the moon is bright: longitudinal study of lunar phase and sleep

Popular belief holds that the lunar cycle affects human physiology, behaviour and health. We examined the influence of moon phase on sleep duration in a secondary analysis of a feasibility study of mobile telephone base stations and sleep quality. We studied 31 volunteers (18 women and 13 men, mean age 50 years) from a suburban area of Switzerland longitudinally over 6 weeks, including two full moons. Subjective sleep duration was calculated from sleep diary data. Data were analysed using multiple linear regression models with random effects. Mean sleep duration was 6 h 49 min. Subjective sleep duration varied with the lunar cycle, from 6 h 41 min at full moon to 7 h 00 min at new moon (P < 0.001). Average sleep duration was shortened by 68 min during the week compared with weekends (P < 0.001). Men slept 17 min longer than women (P < 0.001) and sleep duration decreased with age (P < 0.001). There was also evidence that rating of fatigue in the morning was associated with moon phase, with more tiredness (P = 0.027) at full moon. The study was designed for other purposes and the association between lunar cycle and sleep duration will need to be confirmed in further studies.

Whither PQL?

Generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) are generalized linear models with normally distributed random effects in the linear predictor. Penalized quasi-likelihood (PQL), an approximate method of inference in GLMMs, involves repeated fitting of linear mixed models with “working” dependent variables and iterative weights that depend on parameter estimates from the previous cycle of iteration. The generality of PQL, and its implementation in commercially available software, has encouraged the application of GLMMs in many scientific fields. Caution is needed, however, since PQL may sometimes yield badly biased estimates of variance components, especially with binary outcomes. Recent developments in numerical integration, including adaptive Gaussian quadrature, higher order Laplace expansions, stochastic integration and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, provide attractive alternatives to PQL for approximate likelihood inference in GLMMs. Analyses of some well known datasets, and simulations based on these analyses, suggest that PQL still performs remarkably well in comparison with more elaborate procedures in many practical situations. Adaptive Gaussian quadrature is a viable alternative for nested designs where the numerical integration is limited to a small number of dimensions. Higher order Laplace approximations hold the promise of accurate inference more generally. MCMC is likely the method of choice for the most complex problems that involve high dimensional integrals.

Semiparametric Estimation in General Repeated Measures Problems

This paper considers a wide class of semiparametric problems with a parametric part for some covariate effects and repeated evaluations of a nonparametric function. Special cases in our approach include marginal models for longitudinal/clustered data, conditional logistic regression for matched case-control studies, multivariate measurement error models, generalized linear mixed models with a semiparametric component, and many others. We propose profile-kernel and backfitting estimation methods for these problems, derive their asymptotic distributions, and show that in likelihood problems the methods are semiparametric efficient. While generally not true, with our methods profiling and backfitting are asymptotically equivalent. We also consider pseudolikelihood methods where some nuisance parameters are estimated from a different algorithm. The proposed methods are evaluated using simulation studies and applied to the Kenya hemoglobin data.

MORTALITY IN THE MEDICARE POPULATION AND CHRONIC EXPOSURE TO FINE PARTICULATE AIR POLLUTION

Prospective cohort studies have provided evidence on longer-term mortality risks of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), but due to their complexity and costs, only a few have been conducted. By linking monitoring data to the U.S. Medicare system by county of residence, we developed a retrospective cohort study, the Medicare Air Pollution Cohort Study (MCAPS), comprising over 20 million enrollees in the 250 largest counties during 2000-2002. We estimated log-linear regression models having as outcome the age-specific mortality rate for each county and as the main predictor, the average level for the study period 2000. Area-level covariates were used to adjust for socio-economic status and smoking. We reported results under several degrees of adjustment for spatial confounding and with stratification into by eastern, central and western counties. We estimated that a 10 µg/m3 increase in PM25 is associated with a 7.6% increase in mortality (95% CI: 4.4 to 10.8%). We found a stronger association in the eastern counties than nationally, with no evidence of an association in western counties. When adjusted for spatial confounding, the estimated log-relative risks drop by 50%. We demonstrated the feasibility of using Medicare data to establish cohorts for follow-up for effects of air pollution. Particulate matter (PM) air pollution is a global public health problem (1). In developing countries, levels of airborne particles still reach concentrations at which serious health consequences are well-documented; in developed countries, recent epidemiologic evidence shows continued adverse effects, even though particle levels have declined in the last two decades (2-6). Increased mortality associated with higher levels of PM air pollution has been of particular concern, giving an imperative for stronger protective regulations (7). Evidence on PM and health comes from studies of acute and chronic adverse effects (6). The London Fog of 1952 provides dramatic evidence of the unacceptable short-term risk of extremely high levels of PM air pollution (8-10); multi-site time-series studies of daily mortality show that far lower levels of particles are still associated with short-term risk (5)(11-13). Cohort studies provide complementary evidence on the longer-term risks of PM air pollution, indicating the extent to which exposure reduces life expectancy. The design of these studies involves follow-up of cohorts for mortality over periods of years to decades and an assessment of mortality risk in association with estimated long-term exposure to air pollution (2-4;14-17). Because of the complexity and costs of such studies, only a small number have been conducted. The most rigorously executed, including the Harvard Six Cities Study and the American Cancer Society’s (ACS) Cancer Prevention Study II, have provided generally consistent evidence for an association of long- term exposure to particulate matter air pollution with increased all-cause and cardio-respiratory mortality (2,4,14,15). Results from these studies have been used in risk assessments conducted for setting the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for PM and for estimating the global burden of disease attributable to air pollution (18,19). Additional prospective cohort studies are necessary, however, to confirm associations between long-term exposure to PM and mortality, to broaden the populations studied, and to refine estimates by regions across which particle composition varies. Toward this end, we have used data from the U.S. Medicare system, which covers nearly all persons 65 years of age and older in the United States. We linked Medicare mortality data to (particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter) air pollution monitoring data to create a new retrospective cohort study, the Medicare Air Pollution Cohort Study (MCAPS), consisting of 20 million persons from 250 counties and representing about 50% of the US population of elderly living in urban settings. In this paper, we report on the relationship between longer-term exposure to PM2.5 and mortality risk over the period 2000 to 2002 in the MCAPS.

Endocrine symptom assessment in women with breast cancer: what a simple "yes" means

GOALS OF WORK: To investigate the self-reported symptoms related to endocrine therapy in women with early or advanced breast cancer and the impact of these symptoms on quality of life (QL) indicators. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Symptom occurrence was assessed by the Checklist for Patients on Endocrine Therapy (C-PET) and symptom intensity was assessed by linear analogue self-assessment (LASA) indicators. Patients also responded to global LASA indicators for physical well-being, mood, coping effort and treatment burden. Associations between symptoms and these indicators were analysed by linear regression models. MAIN RESULTS: Among 373 women, the distribution of symptom intensity showed considerable variation in patients reporting a symptom as present. Even though patients recorded a symptom as absent, some patients reported having experienced that symptom when responding to symptom intensity, as seen for decreased sex drive, tiredness and vaginal dryness. Six of 13 symptoms and lower age had a detrimental impact on the global indicators, particularly tiredness and irritability. CONCLUSIONS: Patients' experience of endocrine symptoms needs to be considered both in patient care and research, when interpreting the association between symptoms and QL.

Development of a screening tool predicting the transition from acute to chronic low back pain for patients in a GP setting: protocol of a multinational prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Low back pain (LBP) is by far the most prevalent and costly musculoskeletal problem in our society today. Following the recommendations of the Multinational Musculoskeletal Inception Cohort Study (MMICS) Statement, our study aims to define outcome assessment tools for patients with acute LBP and the time point at which chronic LBP becomes manifest and to identify patient characteristics which increase the risk of chronicity. METHODS: Patients with acute LBP will be recruited from clinics of general practitioners (GPs) in New Zealand (NZ) and Switzerland (CH). They will be assessed by postal survey at baseline and at 3, 6, 12 weeks and 6 months follow-up. Primary outcome will be disability as measured by the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI); key secondary endpoints will be general health as measured by the acute SF-12 and pain as measured on the Visual Analogue Scale (VAS). A subgroup analysis of different assessment instruments and baseline characteristics will be performed using multiple linear regression models. This study aims to examine: 1. Which biomedical, psychological, social, and occupational outcome assessment tools are identifiers for the transition from acute to chronic LBP and at which time point this transition becomes manifest. 2. Which psychosocial and occupational baseline characteristics like work status and period of work absenteeism influence the course from acute to chronic LBP. 3. Differences in outcome assessment tools and baseline characteristics of patients in NZ compared with CH. DISCUSSION: This study will develop a screening tool for patients with acute LBP to be used in GP clinics to access the risk of developing chronic LBP. In addition, biomedical, psychological, social, and occupational patient characteristics which influence the course from acute to chronic LBP will be identified. Furthermore, an appropriate time point for follow-ups will be given to detect this transition. The generalizability of our findings will be enhanced by the international perspective of this study. TRIAL REGISTRATION: [Clinical Trial Registration Number, ACTRN12608000520336].

Differences across health care systems in outcome and cost-utility of surgical and conservative treatment of chronic low back pain: a study protocol

BACKGROUND: There is little evidence on differences across health care systems in choice and outcome of the treatment of chronic low back pain (CLBP) with spinal surgery and conservative treatment as the main options. At least six randomised controlled trials comparing these two options have been performed; they show conflicting results without clear-cut evidence for superior effectiveness of any of the evaluated interventions and could not address whether treatment effect varied across patient subgroups. Cost-utility analyses display inconsistent results when comparing surgical and conservative treatment of CLBP. Due to its higher feasibility, we chose to conduct a prospective observational cohort study. METHODS: This study aims to examine if1. Differences across health care systems result in different treatment outcomes of surgical and conservative treatment of CLBP2. Patient characteristics (work-related, psychological factors, etc.) and co-interventions (physiotherapy, cognitive behavioural therapy, return-to-work programs, etc.) modify the outcome of treatment for CLBP3. Cost-utility in terms of quality-adjusted life years differs between surgical and conservative treatment of CLBP.This study will recruit 1000 patients from orthopaedic spine units, rehabilitation centres, and pain clinics in Switzerland and New Zealand. Effectiveness will be measured by the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) at baseline and after six months. The change in ODI will be the primary endpoint of this study.Multiple linear regression models will be used, with the change in ODI from baseline to six months as the dependent variable and the type of health care system, type of treatment, patient characteristics, and co-interventions as independent variables. Interactions will be incorporated between type of treatment and different co-interventions and patient characteristics. Cost-utility will be measured with an index based on EQol-5D in combination with cost data. CONCLUSION: This study will provide evidence if differences across health care systems in the outcome of treatment of CLBP exist. It will classify patients with CLBP into different clinical subgroups and help to identify specific target groups who might benefit from specific surgical or conservative interventions. Furthermore, cost-utility differences will be identified for different groups of patients with CLBP. Main results of this study should be replicated in future studies on CLBP.

The international spine registry SPINE TANGO: status quo and first results

With an official life time of over 5 years, Spine Tango can meanwhile be considered the first international spine registry. In this paper we present an overview of frequency statistics of Spine Tango for demonstrating the genesis of questionnaire development and the constantly increasing activity in the registry. Results from two exemplar studies serve for showing concepts of data analysis applied to a spine registry. Between 2002 and 2006, about 6,000 datasets were submitted by 25 centres. Descriptive analyses were performed for demographic, surgical and follow-up data of three generations of the Spine Tango surgery and follow-up forms. The two exemplar studies used multiple linear regression models to identify potential predictor variables for the occurrence of dura lesions in posterior spinal fusion, and to evaluate which covariates influenced the length of hospital stay. Over the study period there was a rise in median patient age from 52.3 to 58.6 years in the Spine Tango data pool and an increasing percentage of degenerative diseases as main pathology from 59.9 to 71.4%. Posterior decompression was the most frequent surgical measure. About one-third of all patients had documented follow-ups. The complication rate remained below 10%. The exemplar studies identified "centre of intervention" and "number of segments of fusion" as predictors of the occurrence of dura lesions in posterior spinal fusion surgery. Length of hospital stay among patients with posterior fusion was significantly influenced by "centre of intervention", "surgeon credentials", "number of segments of fusion", "age group" and "sex". Data analysis from Spine Tango is possible but complicated by the incompatibility of questionnaire generations 1 and 2 with the more recent generation 3. Although descriptive and also analytic studies at evidence level 2++ can be performed, findings cannot yet be generalised to any specific country or patient population. Current limitations of Spine Tango include the low number and short duration of follow-ups and the lack of sufficiently detailed patient data on subgroup levels. Although the number of participants is steadily growing, no country is yet represented with a sufficient number of hospitals. Nevertheless, the benefits of the project for the whole spine community become increasingly visible.

Farmer land allocation for maize, groundnut and cotton production in Chipata District, Eastern Province, Zambia

Small-scale farmers in the Chipata District of Zambia rely on their farm fields to grow maize and groundnuts for food security. Cotton production and surplus food security crops are used to generate income to provide for their families. With increasing population pressure, available land has decreased and farmers struggle to provide the necessary food requirements and income to meet their family’s needs. The purpose of the study was to determine how a farmer can best allocate his land to produce maize, groundnuts and cotton when constrained by labor and capital resources to generate the highest potential for food security and financial gains. Data from the 2008-2009 growing season was compiled and analyzed using a linear programming model. The study determined that farmers make the most profit by allocating all additional land and resources to cotton after meeting their minimum food security requirements. The study suggests growing cotton is a beneficial practice for small-scale subsistence farmers to generate income when restricted by limited resources.

Long-term immunologic response to antiretroviral therapy in low-income countries: a collaborative analysis of prospective studies

BACKGROUND: Few data are available on the long-term immunologic response to antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings, where ART is being rapidly scaled up using a public health approach, with a limited repertoire of drugs. OBJECTIVES: To describe immunologic response to ART among ART patients in a network of cohorts from sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and Asia. STUDY POPULATION/METHODS: Treatment-naive patients aged 15 and older from 27 treatment programs were eligible. Multilevel, linear mixed models were used to assess associations between predictor variables and CD4 cell count trajectories following ART initiation. RESULTS: Of 29 175 patients initiating ART, 8933 (31%) were excluded due to insufficient follow-up time and early lost to follow-up or death. The remaining 19 967 patients contributed 39 200 person-years on ART and 71 067 CD4 cell count measurements. The median baseline CD4 cell count was 114 cells/microl, with 35% having less than 100 cells/microl. Substantial intersite variation in baseline CD4 cell count was observed (range 61-181 cells/microl). Women had higher median baseline CD4 cell counts than men (121 vs. 104 cells/microl). The median CD4 cell count increased from 114 cells/microl at ART initiation to 230 [interquartile range (IQR) 144-338] at 6 months, 263 (IQR 175-376) at 1 year, 336 (IQR 224-472) at 2 years, 372 (IQR 242-537) at 3 years, 377 (IQR 221-561) at 4 years, and 395 (IQR 240-592) at 5 years. In multivariable models, baseline CD4 cell count was the most important determinant of subsequent CD4 cell count trajectories. CONCLUSION: These data demonstrate robust and sustained CD4 response to ART among patients remaining on therapy. Public health and programmatic interventions leading to earlier HIV diagnosis and initiation of ART could substantially improve patient outcomes in resource-limited settings.

Low current and nadir CD4+ T-cell counts are associated with higher hepatitis C virus RNA levels in the Swiss HIV cohort study

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of CD4+ T-cell counts and other characteristics of HIV-infected individuals on hepatitis C virus (HCV) RNA levels. METHODS: All HIV-HCV-coinfected Swiss HIV Cohort Study participants with available HCV RNA levels and concurrent CD4+ T-cell counts before starting HCV therapy were included. Potential predictors of HCV RNA levels were assessed by multivariate censored linear regression models that adjust for censored values. RESULTS: The study included 1,031 individuals. Low current and nadir CD4+ T-cell counts were significantly associated with higher HCV RNA levels (P = 0.004 and 0.001, respectively). In individuals with current CD4+ T-cell counts < 200/microl, median HCV RNA levels (6.22 log10 IU/ml) were +0.14 and +0.24 log10 IU/ml higher than those with CD4+ T-cell counts of 200-500/microl and > 500/microl. Based on nadir CD4+ T-cell counts, median HCV RNA levels (6.12 log10 IU/ml) in individuals with < 200/microl CD4+ T-cells were +0.06 and +0.44 log10 IU/ml higher than those with nadir T-cell counts of 200-500/microl and > 500/microl. Median HCV RNA levels were also significantly associated with HCV genotype: lower values were associated with genotype 4 and higher values with genotype 2, as compared with genotype 1. Additional significant predictors of lower HCV RNA levels were female gender and HIV transmission through male homosexual contacts. In multivariate analyses, only CD4+ T-cell counts and HCV genotype remained significant predictors of HCV RNA levels. Conclusions: Higher HCV RNA levels were associated with CD4+ T-cell depletion. This finding is in line with the crucial role of CD4+ T-cells in the control of HCV infection.

Circulating fibrinogen but not D-dimer level is associated with vital exhaustion in school teachers

Meta-analyses have established elevated fibrinogen and D-dimer levels in the circulation as biological risk factors for the development and progression of coronary artery disease (CAD). Here, we investigated whether vital exhaustion (VE), a known psychosocial risk factor for CAD, is associated with fibrinogen and D-dimer levels in a sample of apparently healthy school teachers. The teaching profession has been proposed as a potentially high stressful occupation due to enhanced psychosocial stress at the workplace. Plasma fibrinogen and D-dimer levels were measured in 150 middle-aged male and female teachers derived from the first year of the Trier-Teacher-Stress-Study. Log-transformed levels were analyzed using linear regression. Results yielded a significant association between VE and fibrinogen (p = 0.02) but not D-dimer controlling for relevant covariates. Further investigation of possible interaction effects resulted in a significant association between fibrinogen and the interaction term "VE x gender" (p = 0.05). In a secondary analysis, we reran linear regression models for males and females separately. Gender-specific results revealed that the association between fibrinogen and VE remained significant in males but not females. In sum, the present data support the notion that fibrinogen levels are positively related to VE. Elevated fibrinogen might be one biological pathway by which chronic work stress may impact on teachers' cardiovascular health in the long run.