Risk charts to guide targeted HIV-1 viral load monitoring of ART: development and validation in patients from resource-limited settings.

BACKGROUND HIV-1 RNA viral load (VL) testing is recommended to monitor antiretroviral therapy (ART) but not available in many resource-limited settings. We developed and validated CD4-based risk charts to guide targeted VL testing. METHODS We modeled the probability of virologic failure up to 5 years of ART based on current and baseline CD4 counts, developed decision rules for targeted VL testing of 10%, 20% or 40% of patients in seven cohorts of patients starting ART in South Africa, and plotted cut-offs for VL testing on colour-coded risk charts. We assessed the accuracy of risk chart-guided VL testing to detect virologic failure in validation cohorts from South Africa, Zambia and the Asia-Pacific. FINDINGS 31,450 adult patients were included in the derivation and 25,294 patients in the validation cohorts. Positive predictive values increased with the percentage of patients tested: from 79% (10% tested) to 98% (40% tested) in the South African, from 64% to 93% in the Zambian and from 73% to 96% in the Asia-Pacific cohorts. Corresponding increases in sensitivity were from 35% to 68% in South Africa, from 55% to 82% in Zambia and from 37% to 71% in Asia-Pacific. The area under the receiver-operating curve increased from 0.75 to 0.91 in South Africa, from 0.76 to 0.91 in Zambia and from 0.77 to 0.92 in Asia Pacific. INTERPRETATION CD4-based risk charts with optimal cut-offs for targeted VL testing may be useful to monitor ART in settings where VL capacity is limited.

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Implementation and Operational Research: Risk Charts to Guide Targeted HIV-1 Viral Load Monitoring of ART: Development and Validation in Patients From Resource-Limited Settings.

BACKGROUND HIV-1 RNA viral load (VL) testing is recommended to monitor antiretroviral therapy (ART) but not available in many resource-limited settings. We developed and validated CD4-based risk charts to guide targeted VL testing. METHODS We modeled the probability of virologic failure up to 5 years of ART based on current and baseline CD4 counts, developed decision rules for targeted VL testing of 10%, 20%, or 40% of patients in 7 cohorts of patients starting ART in South Africa, and plotted cutoffs for VL testing on colour-coded risk charts. We assessed the accuracy of risk chart-guided VL testing to detect virologic failure in validation cohorts from South Africa, Zambia, and the Asia-Pacific. RESULTS In total, 31,450 adult patients were included in the derivation and 25,294 patients in the validation cohorts. Positive predictive values increased with the percentage of patients tested: from 79% (10% tested) to 98% (40% tested) in the South African cohort, from 64% to 93% in the Zambian cohort, and from 73% to 96% in the Asia-Pacific cohort. Corresponding increases in sensitivity were from 35% to 68% in South Africa, from 55% to 82% in Zambia, and from 37% to 71% in Asia-Pacific. The area under the receiver operating curve increased from 0.75 to 0.91 in South Africa, from 0.76 to 0.91 in Zambia, and from 0.77 to 0.92 in Asia-Pacific. CONCLUSIONS CD4-based risk charts with optimal cutoffs for targeted VL testing maybe useful to monitor ART in settings where VL capacity is limited.

Collecting the Painted Netherlands: The Art Collection of Ernest of Austria in Brussels

The (art) collection of Archduke Ernest of Austria (1553-1595) is widely unknown when it comes to early-modern Habsburg collections. Ernest, younger brother of Emperor Rudolf II (b. 1552) and educated at the Madrid court, was appointed Governor-General of the Netherlands by King Philip II of Spain, his uncle, in summer 1593. Ernest relocated his court from Vienna to Brussels in early 1594 and was welcomed there with lavish festivities: the traditional Blijde Inkomst, Joyous Entry, of the new sovereign. Unfortunately, the archduke died in February 1595 after residing in Brussels for a mere thirteen months. This investigation aims to shed new light on the archduke and his short-lived collecting ambitions in the Low Countries, taking into account that he had the mercantile and artistic metropolis Antwerp in his immediate reach. I argue, that his collecting ambitions can be traced back to one specific occasion: Ernest’s Joyous Entry into Antwerp in June 1594. There the archduke received a series of six paintings of Pieter Bruegel the Elder (1525/30-1569) known as The Months (painted in 1565), hanging today in separate locations in Vienna, New York and Prague. These works of art triggered Ernest’s collecting ambitions and prompted him to focus mainly on works of art and artefacts manufactured at or traded within the Netherlands during the last eight months of his lifetime. Additionally, it will be shown that the archduke was inspired by the paintings’ motifs and therefore concentrated on acquiring works of art depicting nature and landscape scenes from the 1560s and 1590s. On the basis of the archduke’s recently published account book (Kassabuch) and of the partially published inventory of his belongings, it becomes clear that Ernest of Austria must be seen in line with the better-known Habsburg collectors and that his specific collection of “the painted Netherlands” can be linked directly to his self-fashioning as a rightful sovereign of the Low Countries.