939 resultados para Lee-Carter model


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Video surveillance systems using Closed Circuit Television (CCTV) cameras, is one of the fastest growing areas in the field of security technologies. However, the existing video surveillance systems are still not at a stage where they can be used for crime prevention. The systems rely heavily on human observers and are therefore limited by factors such as fatigue and monitoring capabilities over long periods of time. This work attempts to address these problems by proposing an automatic suspicious behaviour detection which utilises contextual information. The utilisation of contextual information is done via three main components: a context space model, a data stream clustering algorithm, and an inference algorithm. The utilisation of contextual information is still limited in the domain of suspicious behaviour detection. Furthermore, it is nearly impossible to correctly understand human behaviour without considering the context where it is observed. This work presents experiments using video feeds taken from CAVIAR dataset and a camera mounted on one of the buildings Z-Block) at the Queensland University of Technology, Australia. From these experiments, it is shown that by exploiting contextual information, the proposed system is able to make more accurate detections, especially of those behaviours which are only suspicious in some contexts while being normal in the others. Moreover, this information gives critical feedback to the system designers to refine the system.

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In John Frazer's seminal book An Evolutionary Architecture (1995), from which this essay is extracted, a fundamental approach is established for have natural systems can unfold mechanisms for negotiating the complex design space inherent in architectural systems. In this essay, which forms a critical part of the book, Frazer draws both correlations and distinctions from natural processes as emulated in design processes and form as active manifestations within natural systems. Form is seen as an evolving agent generated via the rules of descriptive genetic coding, functioning as a part of a metabolic environment. Frazer's process-model establishes the realm in which computation must manoeuvre to produce a valid solution space, including the operations of self-organisation, complexity and emergent behaviour. Addressing design as an authored practice, he extends the transference of 'creativity' from the explicit impression into form, to the investment of though, organisation and strategy in the computational processes which produce form. Frazer's text concentrates astutely on the practising of the evolutionary paradigm, the output of which postulates an architecture born of the relationships to dynamic environmental and socio-economic contexts, and realised through morphogenetic materialisation.

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The health system is one sector dealing with a deluge of complex data. Many healthcare organisations struggle to utilise these volumes of health data effectively and efficiently. Also, there are many healthcare organisations, which still have stand-alone systems, not integrated for management of information and decision-making. This shows, there is a need for an effective system to capture, collate and distribute this health data. Therefore, implementing the data warehouse concept in healthcare is potentially one of the solutions to integrate health data. Data warehousing has been used to support business intelligence and decision-making in many other sectors such as the engineering, defence and retail sectors. The research problem that is going to be addressed is, "how can data warehousing assist the decision-making process in healthcare". To address this problem the researcher has narrowed an investigation focusing on a cardiac surgery unit. This research used the cardiac surgery unit at the Prince Charles Hospital (TPCH) as the case study. The cardiac surgery unit at TPCH uses a stand-alone database of patient clinical data, which supports clinical audit, service management and research functions. However, much of the time, the interaction between the cardiac surgery unit information system with other units is minimal. There is a limited and basic two-way interaction with other clinical and administrative databases at TPCH which support decision-making processes. The aims of this research are to investigate what decision-making issues are faced by the healthcare professionals with the current information systems and how decision-making might be improved within this healthcare setting by implementing an aligned data warehouse model or models. As a part of the research the researcher will propose and develop a suitable data warehouse prototype based on the cardiac surgery unit needs and integrating the Intensive Care Unit database, Clinical Costing unit database (Transition II) and Quality and Safety unit database [electronic discharge summary (e-DS)]. The goal is to improve the current decision-making processes. The main objectives of this research are to improve access to integrated clinical and financial data, providing potentially better information for decision-making for both improved from the questionnaire and by referring to the literature, the results indicate a centralised data warehouse model for the cardiac surgery unit at this stage. A centralised data warehouse model addresses current needs and can also be upgraded to an enterprise wide warehouse model or federated data warehouse model as discussed in the many consulted publications. The data warehouse prototype was able to be developed using SAS enterprise data integration studio 4.2 and the data was analysed using SAS enterprise edition 4.3. In the final stage, the data warehouse prototype was evaluated by collecting feedback from the end users. This was achieved by using output created from the data warehouse prototype as examples of the data desired and possible in a data warehouse environment. According to the feedback collected from the end users, implementation of a data warehouse was seen to be a useful tool to inform management options, provide a more complete representation of factors related to a decision scenario and potentially reduce information product development time. However, there are many constraints exist in this research. For example the technical issues such as data incompatibilities, integration of the cardiac surgery database and e-DS database servers and also, Queensland Health information restrictions (Queensland Health information related policies, patient data confidentiality and ethics requirements), limited availability of support from IT technical staff and time restrictions. These factors have influenced the process for the warehouse model development, necessitating an incremental approach. This highlights the presence of many practical barriers to data warehousing and integration at the clinical service level. Limitations included the use of a small convenience sample of survey respondents, and a single site case report study design. As mentioned previously, the proposed data warehouse is a prototype and was developed using only four database repositories. Despite this constraint, the research demonstrates that by implementing a data warehouse at the service level, decision-making is supported and data quality issues related to access and availability can be reduced, providing many benefits. Output reports produced from the data warehouse prototype demonstrated usefulness for the improvement of decision-making in the management of clinical services, and quality and safety monitoring for better clinical care. However, in the future, the centralised model selected can be upgraded to an enterprise wide architecture by integrating with additional hospital units’ databases.

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As business process management technology matures, organisations acquire more and more business process models. The resulting collections can consist of hundreds, even thousands of models and their management poses real challenges. One of these challenges concerns model retrieval where support should be provided for the formulation and efficient execution of business process model queries. As queries based on only structural information cannot deal with all querying requirements in practice, there should be support for queries that require knowledge of process model semantics. In this paper we formally define a process model query language that is based on semantic relationships between tasks. This query language is independent of the particular process modelling notation used, but we will demonstrate how it can be used in the context of Petri nets by showing how the semantic relationships can be determined for these nets in such a way that state space explosion is avoided as much as possible. An experiment with three large process model repositories shows that queries expressed in our language can be evaluated efficiently.

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Fibroblasts and their activated phenotype, myofibroblasts, are the primary cell types involved in the contraction associated with dermal wound healing. Recent experimental evidence indicates that the transformation from fibroblasts to myofibroblasts involves two distinct processes: the cells are stimulated to change phenotype by the combined actions of transforming growth factor β (TGFβ) and mechanical tension. This observation indicates a need for a detailed exploration of the effect of the strong interactions between the mechanical changes and growth factors in dermal wound healing. We review the experimental findings in detail and develop a model of dermal wound healing that incorporates these phenomena. Our model includes the interactions between TGFβ and collagenase, providing a more biologically realistic form for the growth factor kinetics than those included in previous mechanochemical descriptions. A comparison is made between the model predictions and experimental data on human dermal wound healing and all the essential features are well matched.

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Hypertrophic scars arise when there is an overproduction of collagen during wound healing. These are often associated with poor regulation of the rate of programmed cell death(apoptosis) of the cells synthesizing the collagen or by an exuberant inflammatory response that prolongs collagen production and increases wound contraction. Severe contractures that occur, for example, after a deep burn can cause loss of function especially if the wound is over a joint such as the elbow or knee. Recently, we have developed a morphoelastic mathematical model for dermal repair that incorporates the chemical, cellular and mechanical aspects of dermal wound healing. Using this model, we examine pathological scarring in dermal repair by first assuming a smaller than usual apoptotic rate for myofibroblasts, and then considering a prolonged inflammatory response, in an attempt to determine a possible optimal intervention strategy to promote normal repair, or terminate the fibrotic scarring response. Our model predicts that in both cases it is best to apply the intervention strategy early in the wound healing response. Further, the earlier an intervention is made, the less aggressive the intervention required. Finally, if intervention is conducted at a late time during healing, a significant intervention is required; however, there is a threshold concentration of the drug or therapy applied, above which minimal further improvement to wound repair is obtained.

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We report the application of a novel scaffold design in a sheep thoracic spine model for spine deformity correction. The combination of the calcium-phosphate coated polycaprolactone scaffolds with recombinant human bone morphogenic protein-2 (rhBMP-2) are intended as a future bone graft substitute in ensuring the stability of bony intervertebral fusion. A solid free-form fabrication process based on melt extrusion has been utilized in the manufacturing of these scaffolds. To date there are no studies examining the use of such biodegradable implants in a sheep thoracic spine model. The success of anterior scoliosis surgery in humans depends on achieving a solid bony fusion between adjacent vertebrae after the intervertebral discs have been surgically cleared and the disc spaces filled with graft material. Due to limited availability of autograft, there is much current interest in the development of synthetic scaffolds in combination with growth factors such as recombinant human bone morphogenetic protein (rhBMP-2) to achieve a solid bony fusion following scoliosis surgery.

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Although Design Led Innovation activities aim to raise the value of design within the business, knowledge about which tools are available to support companies and how to apply them to make the connection between design for new product development and design as a strategic driver of growth is needed. This paper presents a conceptual method to supplement existing process and tools to assist companies to grow through design. The model extends the authors’ previous work to explore how through storytelling, customer observation can be captured and translated into new meaning, then creating new design propositions shaped into product needs, which can drive internal business activities, brand and the strategic vision. The paper contributes to a gap in the theoretical frameworks and literature by highlighting the need to align and scale design processes which match the needs of SME’s as they transition along a trajectory to become design led businesses.

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Management (or perceived mismanagement) of large-scale, complex projects poses special problems and often results in spectacular failures, cost overruns, time blowouts and stakeholder dissatisfaction. While traditional project management responds with increasingly administrative constraints, we argue that leaders of such projects also need to display adaptive and enabling behaviours to foster adaptive processes, such as opportunity recognition, which requires an interaction of cognitive and affective processes of individual, project, and team leader attributes and behaviours. At the core of this model we propose is an interaction of cognitive flexibility, affect and emotional intelligence. The result of this interaction is enhanced leader opportunity recognition that, in turn, facilitates multilevel outcomes.

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Humans have altered environments and enhanced their well being unlike any other creature on the planet (Heilman & Donna, 2007); this is no different whether the environment is ecological, social or organisational. In recent times business modelling techniques have become intricately detailed in the pre-designing and evaluating of business flow before the final implementation (Ou-Yang & Lin, 2008). The importance of the organisation change and business process model is undeniable. The feedback received from real business process users is that the notation is easy to learn; the models do help people to understand the process better; the models can be used to improve the (business) process; and the notation is expressive enough to capture the essential information (Bennett, Doshi, Do Vale Junior, Kumar, Manikam, & Madavan, 2009).

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“The process of innovation is often seen as being very linear, with research results, new technologies or user insights being channelled, often prematurely, into specific products and process” (Kyffin and Gardien 2009). It is precisely this perception of innovation-as-linear-process which this paper seeks to challenge. While there are many current theories and much contemporary literature available which discuss the management and catalysts of innovation, what is missing are examples of how innovation occurs from the application of these theories and literature (Wrigley & Bucolo 2010). This paper addresses both this gap and perceptions of the viability of linear innovation by presenting a case study for the commercialisation of a core technology (a cleantech, semi-portable mass-energy generator posited as a direct competitor to conventional energy provision systems), within an 18-month timeframe by the use of the Design-Led Innovation approach: “a process of creating a sustainable competitive advantage by radically changing the customer value proposition” (Bucolo & Matthews 2011).

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Currently, well established clinical therapeutic approaches for bone reconstruction are restricted to the transplantation of autografts and allografts, and the implantation of metal devices or ceramic-based implants to assist bone regeneration. Bone grafts possess osteoconductive and osteoinductive properties, their application, however, is associated with disadvantages. These include limited access and availability, donor site morbidity and haemorrhage, increased risk of infection, and insufficient transplant integration. As a result, recent research focuses on the development of complementary therapeutic concepts. The field of tissue engineering has emerged as an important alternative approach to bone regeneration. Tissue engineering unites aspects of cellular biology, biomechanical engineering, biomaterial sciences and trauma and orthopaedic surgery. To obtain approval by regulatory bodies for these novel therapeutic concepts the level of therapeutic benefit must be demonstrated rigorously in well characterized, clinically relevant animal models. Therefore, in this PhD project, a reproducible and clinically relevant, ovine, critically sized, high load bearing, tibial defect model was established and characterized as a prerequisite to assess the regenerative potential of a novel treatment concept in vivo involving a medical grade polycaprolactone and tricalciumphosphate based composite scaffold and recombinant human bone morphogenetic proteins.

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This research is one of several ongoing studies conducted within the IT Professional Services (ITPS) research programme at Queensland University of Technology (QUT). In 2003, ITPS introduced the IS-Impact model, a measurement model for measuring information systems success from the viewpoint of multiple stakeholders. The model, along with its instrument, is robust, simple, yet generalisable, and yields results that are comparable across time, stakeholders, different systems and system contexts. The IS-Impact model is defined as “a measure at a point in time, of the stream of net benefits from the Information System (IS), to date and anticipated, as perceived by all key-user-groups”. The model represents four dimensions, which are ‘Individual Impact’, ‘Organizational Impact’, ‘Information Quality’ and ‘System Quality’. The two Impact dimensions measure the up-to-date impact of the evaluated system, while the remaining two Quality dimensions act as proxies for probable future impacts (Gable, Sedera & Chan, 2008). To fulfil the goal of ITPS, “to develop the most widely employed model” this research re-validates and extends the IS-Impact model in a new context. This method/context-extension research aims to test the generalisability of the model by addressing known limitations of the model. One of the limitations of the model relates to the extent of external validity of the model. In order to gain wide acceptance, a model should be consistent and work well in different contexts. The IS-Impact model, however, was only validated in the Australian context, and packaged software was chosen as the IS understudy. Thus, this study is concerned with whether the model can be applied in another different context. Aiming for a robust and standardised measurement model that can be used across different contexts, this research re-validates and extends the IS-Impact model and its instrument to public sector organisations in Malaysia. The overarching research question (managerial question) of this research is “How can public sector organisations in Malaysia measure the impact of information systems systematically and effectively?” With two main objectives, the managerial question is broken down into two specific research questions. The first research question addresses the applicability (relevance) of the dimensions and measures of the IS-Impact model in the Malaysian context. Moreover, this research question addresses the completeness of the model in the new context. Initially, this research assumes that the dimensions and measures of the IS-Impact model are sufficient for the new context. However, some IS researchers suggest that the selection of measures needs to be done purposely for different contextual settings (DeLone & McLean, 1992, Rai, Lang & Welker, 2002). Thus, the first research question is as follows, “Is the IS-Impact model complete for measuring the impact of IS in Malaysian public sector organisations?” [RQ1]. The IS-Impact model is a multidimensional model that consists of four dimensions or constructs. Each dimension is represented by formative measures or indicators. Formative measures are known as composite variables because these measures make up or form the construct, or, in this case, the dimension in the IS-Impact model. These formative measures define different aspects of the dimension, thus, a measurement model of this kind needs to be tested not just on the structural relationship between the constructs but also the validity of each measure. In a previous study, the IS-Impact model was validated using formative validation techniques, as proposed in the literature (i.e., Diamantopoulos and Winklhofer, 2001, Diamantopoulos and Siguaw, 2006, Petter, Straub and Rai, 2007). However, there is potential for improving the validation testing of the model by adding more criterion or dependent variables. This includes identifying a consequence of the IS-Impact construct for the purpose of validation. Moreover, a different approach is employed in this research, whereby the validity of the model is tested using the Partial Least Squares (PLS) method, a component-based structural equation modelling (SEM) technique. Thus, the second research question addresses the construct validation of the IS-Impact model; “Is the IS-Impact model valid as a multidimensional formative construct?” [RQ2]. This study employs two rounds of surveys, each having a different and specific aim. The first is qualitative and exploratory, aiming to investigate the applicability and sufficiency of the IS-Impact dimensions and measures in the new context. This survey was conducted in a state government in Malaysia. A total of 77 valid responses were received, yielding 278 impact statements. The results from the qualitative analysis demonstrate the applicability of most of the IS-Impact measures. The analysis also shows a significant new measure having emerged from the context. This new measure was added as one of the System Quality measures. The second survey is a quantitative survey that aims to operationalise the measures identified from the qualitative analysis and rigorously validate the model. This survey was conducted in four state governments (including the state government that was involved in the first survey). A total of 254 valid responses were used in the data analysis. Data was analysed using structural equation modelling techniques, following the guidelines for formative construct validation, to test the validity and reliability of the constructs in the model. This study is the first research that extends the complete IS-Impact model in a new context that is different in terms of nationality, language and the type of information system (IS). The main contribution of this research is to present a comprehensive, up-to-date IS-Impact model, which has been validated in the new context. The study has accomplished its purpose of testing the generalisability of the IS-Impact model and continuing the IS evaluation research by extending it in the Malaysian context. A further contribution is a validated Malaysian language IS-Impact measurement instrument. It is hoped that the validated Malaysian IS-Impact instrument will encourage related IS research in Malaysia, and that the demonstrated model validity and generalisability will encourage a cumulative tradition of research previously not possible. The study entailed several methodological improvements on prior work, including: (1) new criterion measures for the overall IS-Impact construct employed in ‘identification through measurement relations’; (2) a stronger, multi-item ‘Satisfaction’ construct, employed in ‘identification through structural relations’; (3) an alternative version of the main survey instrument in which items are randomized (rather than blocked) for comparison with the main survey data, in attention to possible common method variance (no significant differences between these two survey instruments were observed); (4) demonstrates a validation process of formative indexes of a multidimensional, second-order construct (existing examples mostly involved unidimensional constructs); (5) testing the presence of suppressor effects that influence the significance of some measures and dimensions in the model; and (6) demonstrates the effect of an imbalanced number of measures within a construct to the contribution power of each dimension in a multidimensional model.