Nemlineáris dinamika klasszikus növekedési modellekben (Nonlinear dynamics in classical economic growth models)

Ebben a tanulmányban a klasszikus Harrod növekedési modellt nemlineáris kiterjesztéssel, keynesi és schumpeteri tradíciók bevezetésével reprezentatív ügynök modellbe alakítjuk. A híres Lucas kritika igazolásaként megmutatjuk, hogy az intrinsic gazdasági növekedési ütemek trajektóriái vagy egy turbulens káoszba szóródnak szét, vagy egy nagyméretű rendhez vezetnek, ami elsődlegesen a megfelelő fogyasztási függvény típusától függ, s bizonyos paraméterek piaci értékei, pedig csak másodlagos szerepet játszanak. A másik meglepő eredmény empirikus, ami szerint külkereskedelmi többlet, a hazai valuta bizonyos devizapiaci értékei mellett, különös attraktorokat generálhat. _____ In this paper the classical Harrodian growth model is transformed into a representative agent model by its nonlinear extensions and the Keynesian and Schumpeterian traditions. For the proof of the celebrated Lucas critique it is shown that the trajectories of intrinsic economic growth rates either are scattered into a turbulent chaos or lead to a large scale order. It depends on the type of the appropriate consumption function, and the market values of some parameters are playing only secondary role.Another surprising result is empirical: the international trade su±cit may generate strange attractors under some exchange rate values.

Selenium Distribution in the Human Retina

Selenium is known to occur in the enzyme, glutathione peroxidase, and plays an important role as an antioxidant. The objective of this investigation was to determine if amounts of selenium are selectively accumulated in different regions of the retina or uniformly distributed with eccentricity. 20 human retinas were analyzed for selenium. 18 of these were sectioned into a disc and two concentric annuli centered on the fovea using trephines having diameters of 3, 11, and 21 mm. The sections had areas of7.1, 93, and 343 mm2, respectively. Corresponding sections of these retinas were combined and analyzed together in sets of n = 5 and n = 11. For two donors, the whole retina of one eye was analyzed for selenium and the other retina was sectioned for analysis as described above. Selenium was determined using atomic fluorescence spectroscopy after digestion of the retinal tissues in nitric acid. The two whole retinas were found to have an average of 0.89 ± 0.49 pmoles/mm2 of selenium as compared to the companion which had 0.84 ± 0.28 pmoles/mm2 as determined from the sum of the selenium amounts measured in the individual sections. The inner, medial, and outer portions of these two sectioned retinas were found to contain an average of5.28 ± 1.1, 1.28 ± 0.44, 0.63 ± 0.22 pmoles/mm2, respectively. The five retinas that were sectioned and pooled for analysis were found to have average amounts of3.64, 1.26, and 0.56 pmoles/mm2 • The 11-sectioned retinas were found to have 1.16, 0.61, and 0.38 pmoles/mm2 respectively in the same three sections. This limited data set indicates that selenium is not uniformly distributed within the human retina but rather concentrated to a greater extent within the macula. If confirmed, these data would support the hypothesis that selenium may be an important antioxidant involved in protection of the macula from radical oxidants.

Global compilation of benthic data sets I

Approaches to quantify the organic carbon accumulation on a global scale generally do not consider the small-scale variability of sedimentary and oceanographic boundary conditions along continental margins. In this study, we present a new approach to regionalize the total organic carbon (TOC) content in surface sediments (<5 cm sediment depth). It is based on a compilation of more than 5500 single measurements from various sources. Global TOC distribution was determined by the application of a combined qualitative and quantitative-geostatistical method. Overall, 33 benthic TOC-based provinces were defined and used to process the global distribution pattern of the TOC content in surface sediments in a 1°x1° grid resolution. Regional dependencies of data points within each single province are expressed by modeled semi-variograms. Measured and estimated TOC values show good correlation, emphasizing the reasonable applicability of the method. The accumulation of organic carbon in marine surface sediments is a key parameter in the control of mineralization processes and the material exchange between the sediment and the ocean water. Our approach will help to improve global budgets of nutrient and carbon cycles.

Data compilation on the biological response to ocean acidification: environmental and experimental context of data sets and related literature

The exponential growth of studies on the biological response to ocean acidification over the last few decades has generated a large amount of data. To facilitate data comparison, a data compilation hosted at the data publisher PANGAEA was initiated in 2008 and is updated on a regular basis (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.149999). By January 2015, a total of 581 data sets (over 4 000 000 data points) from 539 papers had been archived. Here we present the developments of this data compilation five years since its first description by Nisumaa et al. (2010). Most of study sites from which data archived are still in the Northern Hemisphere and the number of archived data from studies from the Southern Hemisphere and polar oceans are still relatively low. Data from 60 studies that investigated the response of a mix of organisms or natural communities were all added after 2010, indicating a welcomed shift from the study of individual organisms to communities and ecosystems. The initial imbalance of considerably more data archived on calcification and primary production than on other processes has improved. There is also a clear tendency towards more data archived from multifactorial studies after 2010. For easier and more effective access to ocean acidification data, the ocean acidification community is strongly encouraged to contribute to the data archiving effort, and help develop standard vocabularies describing the variables and define best practices for archiving ocean acidification data.

Padrão epidemiológico das oclusopatias muito graves em adolescentes brasileiros

OBJECTIVE: To describe the distribution of malocclusion and its associated factors in Brazilian adolescents. METHODS: Data from 7,328 subjects aged 12 years and 5,445 adolescents aged 15-19 years were analyzed. The adolescents took part in the Brazilian Oral Health Survey (SBBrasil 2010). The outcome was severe malocclusion according to the dental aesthetic index. The independent variables were sex, skin color, monthly household income, possessions, number of individuals in the household, untreated dental caries, missing teeth and dental appointments or lack thereof, frequency, and reason. Logistical regression analysis was carried out, considering the complex sampling cluster design, based on a hierarchical model. RESULTS: The prevalence of severe malocclusion was 6.5% and 9.1% in the 12-year-olds and the 15-19-year-olds, respectively. After adjustment, those with lighter- skinned black or black skin were 1.59 (95%CI 1.08;2.34) times more likely to present the outcome compared with those with white skin. The loss of one or more first molars increased 2.66 (95%CI 1.26;5.63) the chance to present severe malocclusion by the age of 12. Adolescents aged 15-19 whose household income was below R$ 1,500.00 (OR 2.69 [95%CI 1.62; 4.47]) and those who had seen a dentist for treatment (OR 2.59 [95%CI 2.55;4.34]) had the greatest chance of having severe malocclusion compared with those with higher incomes and those who visited the dentist for prevention.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and biological processes during experiments with four species of marine diatoms

The effect of pCO2 on carbon acquisition and intracellular assimilation was investigated in the three bloom-forming diatom species, Eucampia zodiacus (Ehrenberg), Skeletonema costatum (Greville) Cleve, Thalassionema nitzschioides (Grunow) Mereschkowsky and the non-bloom-forming Thalassiosira pseudonana (Hust.) Hasle and Heimdal. In vivo activities of carbonic anhydrase (CA), photosynthetic O2 evolution, CO2 and HCO3? uptake rates were measured by membrane-inlet mass spectrometry (MIMS) in cells acclimated to pCO2 levels of 370 and 800 ?atm. To investigate whether the cells operate a C4-like pathway, activities of ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase (RubisCO) and phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase (PEPC) were measured at the mentioned pCO2 levels and a lower pCO2 level of 50 ?atm. In the bloom-forming species, extracellular CA activities strongly increased with decreasing CO2 supply while constantly low activities were obtained for T. pseudonana. Half-saturation concentrations (K1/2) for photosynthetic O2 evolution decreased with decreasing CO2 supply in the two bloom-forming species S. costatum and T. nitzschioides, but not in T. pseudonana and E. zodiacus. With the exception of S. costatum, maximum rates (Vmax) of photosynthesis remained constant in all investigated diatom species. Independent of the pCO2 level, PEPC activities were significantly lower than those for RubisCO, averaging generally less than 3%. All examined diatom species operate highly efficient CCMs under ambient and high pCO2, but differ strongly in the degree of regulation of individual components of the CCM such as Ci uptake kinetics and extracellular CA activities. The present data do not suggest C4 metabolism in the investigated species.

Do selective cyclo-oxygenase-2 inhibitors and traditional non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs increase the risk of atherothrombosis? Meta-analysis of randomised trials

Objective: To assess the effects of selective cyclo-oxygenase-2 (COX 2) inhibitors and traditional non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) on the risk of vascular events. Design: Meta-analysis of published and unpublished tabular data from randomised trials, with indirect estimation of the effects of traditional NSAIDs. Data sources: Medline and Embase (January 1966 to April 2005); Food and Drug Administration records; and data on file from Novartis, Pfizer, and Merck. Review methods: Eligible studies were randomised trials that included a comparison of a selective COX 2 inhibitor versus placebo or a selective COX 2 inhibitor versus a traditional NSAID, of at least four weeks' duration, with information on serious vascular events (defined as myocardial infarction, stroke, or vascular death). Individual investigators and manufacturers provided information on the number of patients randomised, numbers of vascular events, and the person time of follow-up for each randomised group. Results: In placebo comparisons, allocation to a selective COX 2 inhibitor was associated with a 42% relative increase in the incidence of serious vascular events (1.2%/year v 0.9%/year; rate ratio 1.42, 95% confidence interval 1.13 to 1.78; P = 0.003), with no significant heterogeneity among the different selective COX 2 inhibitors. This was chiefly attributable to an increased risk of myocardial infarction (0.6%/year v 0.3%/year; 1.86, 1.33 to 2.59; P = 0.0003), with little apparent difference in other vascular outcomes. Among trials of at least one year's duration (mean 2.7 years), the rate ratio for vascular events was 1.45 (1.12 to 1.89; P = 0.005). Overall, the incidence of serious vascular events was similar between a selective COX 2 inhibitor and any traditional NSAID (1.0%/year v 0.9/%year; 1.16, 0.97 to 1.38; P = 0.1). However, statistical heterogeneity (P = 0.001) was found between trials of a selective COX 2 inhibitor versus naproxen (1.57, 1.21 to 2.03) and of a selective COX 2 inhibitor versus non-naproxen NSAIDs (0.88, 0.69 to 1.12). The summary rate ratio for vascular events, compared with placebo, was 0.92 (0.67 to 1.26) for naproxen, 1.51 (0.96 to 2.37) for ibuprofen, and 1.63 (1.12 to 2.37) for diclofenac. Conclusions: Selective COX 2 inhibitors are associated with a moderate increase in the risk of vascular events, as are high dose regimens of ibuprofen and diclofenac, but high dose naproxen is not associated with such an excess.

Global and local perceptual style, field-independence, and central coherence: an attempt at concept validation

Historically, the concepts of field-independence, closure flexibility, and weak central coherence have been used to denote a locally, rather globally, dominated perceptual style. To date, there has been little attempt to clarify the relationship between these constructs, or to examine the convergent validity of the various tasks purported to measure them. To address this, we administered 14 tasks that have been used to study visual perceptual styles to a group of 90 neuro-typical adults. The data were subjected to exploratory factor analysis. We found evidence for the existence of a narrowly defined weak central coherence (field-independence) factor that received loadings from only a few of the tasks used to operationalise this concept. This factor can most aptly be described as representing the ability to dis-embed a simple stimulus from a more complex array. The results suggest that future studies of perceptual styles should include tasks whose theoretical validity is empirically verified, as such validity cannot be established merely on the basis of a priori task analysis. Moreover, the use of multiple indices is required to capture the latent dimensions of perceptual styles reliably.

'Corkonian exceptionalism': identity, authenticity and the emotional politics of place in a small city's popular music scene

Drawing from ethnographic research on Cork city’s popular music scene, this article explores meanings of ‘authenticity’ as constructed through geographical, social and ideological referents. It unpacks local music producers’ position-takings within the local field of cultural production, and locates their narrative claims to authenticity with respect to the city’s strong sense of cultural identity. Their authenticating discourses are revealed as complex, often produced through building imagined communities of ‘us’ (in Cork) versus ‘them’ (in Dublin). The analysis indicates local actors’ deep sense of emotional attachment to place and to others within the music-making community, which impacts on their self-conception as creative labourers, sustains DIY, collaborative practices, and promotes a solidaristic ethos within the local music scene.

He isotope, U/Th isotope, Calcium carbonate, biogenic opal, rare earth element concentrations, and grain size distribution measured on core-top sediments during SONNE cruise SO202 (INOPEX)

Eolian dust is a significant source of iron and other nutrients that are essential for the health of marine ecosystems and potentially a controlling factor of the high nutrient-low chlorophyll status of the Subarctic North Pacific. We map the spatial distribution of dust input using three different geochemical tracers of eolian dust, 4He, 232Th and rare earth elements, in combination with grain size distribution data, from a set of core-top sediments covering the entire Subarctic North Pacific. Using the suite of geochemical proxies to fingerprint different lithogenic components, we deconvolve eolian dust input from other lithogenic inputs such as volcanic ash, ice-rafted debris, riverine and hemipelagic input. While the open ocean sites far away from the volcanic arcs are dominantly composed of pure eolian dust, lithogenic components other than eolian dust play a more crucial role along the arcs. In sites dominated by dust, eolian dust input appears to be characterized by a nearly uniform grain size mode at ~4 µm. Applying the 230Th-normalization technique, our proxies yield a consistent pattern of uniform dust fluxes of 1-2 g/m**2/yr across the Subarctic North Pacific. Elevated eolian dust fluxes of 2-4 g/m**2/yr characterize the westernmost region off Japan and the southern Kurile Islands south of 45° N and west of 165° E along the main pathway of the westerly winds. The core-top based dust flux reconstruction is consistent with recent estimates based on dissolved thorium isotope concentrations in seawater from the Subarctic North Pacific. The dust flux pattern compares well with state-of-the-art dust model predictions in the western and central Subarctic North Pacific, but we find that dust fluxes are higher than modeled fluxes by 0.5-1 g/m**2/yr in the northwest, northeast and eastern Subarctic North Pacific. Our results provide an important benchmark for biogeochemical models and a robust approach for downcore studies testing dust-induced iron fertilization of past changes in biological productivity in the Subarctic North Pacific.

Phospholipid fatty acid and quinone composition of sediments from ODP Leg 205 sites

Assessing the habitability of deep-sea sediments undergoing compaction, compression, and subduction at convergent margins adds to our understanding of the limits of the terrestrial biosphere. In this work, we report exploratory biomarker data on sediments obtained at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Sites 1253, 1254, and 1255 during drilling at the Costa Rica subduction trench and forearc sedimentary wedge. The samples selected for postcruise biomarker analyses were located within intervals of potentially enhanced fluid flow within the décollement and sedimentary wedge fault zones (Sites 1254 and 1255) and within basal carbonates at the reference site (Site 1253). The passage of fluids that are geochemically distinct from ambient interstitial water provides a disequilibrium setting that may enhance habitability. Biomarker data show low levels of microbial biomass in subseafloor sediments sampled at the Costa Rica convergent margin as deep as ~370 meters below seafloor.

Isotopic ratios and ion composition of massive ground ice on Herschel Island

Herschel Island in the southern Beaufort Sea is a push moraine at the northwestern-most limit of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Stable water isotope (d18O, dD) and hydrochemical studies were applied to two tabular massive ground ice bodies to unravel their genetic origin. Buried glacier ice or basal regelation ice was encountered beneath an ice-rich diamicton with strong glaciotectonic deformation structures. The massive ice isotopic composition was highly depleted in heavy isotopes (mean d18O: -33 per mil; mean dD: -258 per mil), suggesting full-glacial conditions during ice formation. Other massive ice of unknown origin with a very large d18O range (from -39 to -21 per mil) was found adjacent to large, striated boulders. A clear freezing slope was present with progressive depletion in heavy isotopes towards the centre of the ice body. Fractionation must have taken place during closed-system freezing, possibly of a glacial meltwater pond. Both massive ground ice bodies exhibited a mixed ion composition suggestive of terrestrial waters with a marine influence. Hydrochemical signatures resemble the Herschel Island sediments that are derived from nearshore marine deposits upthrust by the Laurentide ice. A prolonged contact between water feeding the ice bodies and the surrounding sediment is therefore inferred.

Seasonal variations in surface metabolite composition of Fucus vesiculosus and Fucus serratus sampled at outer Kiel Fjord (August 2012 - July 2013)

The chemical composition of surface associated metabolites of two Fucus species (Fucus vesiculosus and Fucus serratus) was analysed by means of gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) to describe temporal patterns in chemical surface composition. Method: The two perennial brown macroalgae F. vesiculosus and F. serratus were sampled monthly at Bülk, outer Kiel Fjord, Germany (54°27'21 N / 10°11'57 E) over an entire year (August 2012 - July 2013). Per month and species six non-fertile Fucus individuals were collected from mixed stands at a depth of 0.5 m under mid water level. For surface extraction approx. 50 g of the upper 5-10 cm apical thalli tips were cut off per species. The surface extraction of Fucus was performed according to the protocol of de Nys and co-workers (1998) with minor modifications (see Rickert et al. 2015). GC/EI-MS measurements were performed with a Waters GCT premier (Waters, Manchester, UK) coupled to an Agilent 6890N GC equipped with a DB-5 ms 30 m column (0.25 mm internal diameter, 0.25 mM film thickness, Agilent, USA). The inlet temperature was maintained at 250°C and samples were injected in split 10 mode. He carrier gas flow was adjusted to 1 ml min-1. Alkanes were used for referencing of retention times. For further details (GC-MS sample preparation and analysis) see the related publication (Rickert et al. submitted to PLOS ONE).

The Responsiveness, Content Validity, and Convergent Validity of the Measure Yourself Concerns and Wellbeing (MYCaW) Patient-Reported Outcome Measure

Objective Measure Yourself Concerns and Wellbeing (MYCaW) is a patient-centred questionnaire that allows cancer patients to identify and quantify the severity of their ‘Concerns’ and Wellbeing, as opposed to using a pre-determined list. MYCaW administration is brief and aids in prioritising treatment approaches. Our goal was to assess the convergent validity and responsiveness of MYCaW scores over time, the generalisability of the existing qualitative coding framework in different complementary and integrative healthcare settings and content validity. Methods Baseline and 6-week follow-up data (n=82) from MYCaW and FACIT-SpEx questionnaires were collected for a service evaluation of the ‘Living Well With The Impact of Cancer’ course at Penny Brohn Cancer Care. MYCaW construct validity was determined using Spearman's Rank Correlation test, and responsiveness indices assessed score changes over time. The existing qualitative coding framework was reviewed using a new dataset (n=158) and coverage of concern categories compared to items of existing outcome measures. Results Good correlation between MYCaW and FACIT-SpEx score changes were achieved (r= -0.57, p≥0.01). MYCaW Profile and Concern scores were highly responsive to change: SRM=1.02 and 1.08; effect size=1.26 and 1.22. MYCaW change scores showed the anticipated gradient of change according to clinically relevant degrees of change. Categories including ‘Spirituality’, ‘weight change’ and ‘practical concerns’ were added to the coding framework to improve generalisability. Conclusions MYCaW scores were highly responsive to change, allowing personalized patient outcomes to be quantified; the qualitative coding framework is generalisable across different oncology settings and has broader coverage of patient-identified concerns compared with existing cancer-related patient-reported outcome measures.