An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the coastal and human settlements Sector in Barbados

This study assesses the potential economic impact of climate change on coastal human settlements in the Caribbean, with specific reference to Barbados, and evaluates the costs and benefits of undertaking various adaptation strategies. The aim is to assist Caribbean territories in developing the strategies and capacity needed to deal with the potential impact of severe weather events that are anticipated to occur with increased frequency and intensity as a result of climate change. Some of the key anticipated manifestations of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources.This research focuses on how human settlements distributed along the coast of Guyana, especially those in low elevation coastal zones (LECZ)are affected by these impacts. Focusing on three potential transmission sources - sea-level rise, stronger storm hazards and increased precipitation – the study considers the vulnerability of populations in the LECZ areas and estimates the overall threat posed by climate change to coastal populations and infrastructure. Vulnerability to climate change (measured as exposed assets) was estimated for four emission scenarios as outlined by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), namely the A1, A2, B1 and B2 scenarios for the period 2010 to 2100 and as detailed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), using global circulation models (GCM) and storm surge hazard maps.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Energy Sector in Trinidad and Tobago

The energy sector is a dominant one in Trinidad and Tobago and it plays an important role in the twin-island republic‟s economy. In 2008, the share of the energy sector in gross domestic product (GDP) amounted to approximately 48% while contributing 57% to total Government revenue. In that same year, the sector‟s share of merchandise exports was 88%, made up mainly of refined oil products including petroleum, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids (Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago, 2009). Trinidad and Tobago is the main exporter of oil in the Caribbean region and the main producer of liquefied natural gas in Latin America and the Caribbean. The role of the country‟s energy sector is, therefore, not limited to serving as the engine of growth for the national economy but also includes providing energy security for the small island developing States of the Caribbean. However, with its hydrocarbon-based economy, Trinidad and Tobago is ranked seventh in the world in terms of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per capita, producing an estimated 40 million tonnes of CO2 annually. Almost 90% of these CO2 emissions are attributed directly to the energy sector through petrochemical production (56%), power generation (30%) and flaring (3%). Trinidad and Tobago is a ratified signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol. Although, as a non-Annex 1 country, Trinidad and Tobago is not required to cut its greenhouse gas emissions under the Protocol, it is currently finalizing a climate change policy document as well as a national energy policy with specific strategies to address climate change. The present study complements the climate change policy document by providing an economic analysis of the impact that climate change could have on the energy sector in Trinidad and Tobago under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change alternative climate scenarios (A2 and B2) as compared to a baseline situation of no climate change. Results of analyses indicate that, in the short-run, climate change, represented by change in temperature, is not a significant determinant of domestic consumption of energy, electricity in particular, in Trinidad and Tobago. With energy prices subsidized domestically and fixed for years at a time, energy price does not play a role in determining electricity demand. Economic growth, as indicated by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), is the single major determinant of electricity consumption in the short-run. In the long-run, temperature, GDP, and patterns of electricity use, jointly determine electricity consumption. Variations in average annual temperature due to climate change for the A2 scenario are expected to lead to an increase in electricity consumption per capita, equivalent to an annual increase of 1.07% over the 2011 baseline value of electricity consumption per capita. Under the B2 scenario, the average annual increase in electricity consumption per capita over the 2011 baseline value is expected to be 1.01%. The estimated economic impact of climate change on electricity consumption for the period 2011-2050 is valued at US$ 142.88 million under the A2 scenario and US$ 134.83million under the B2 scenario. These economic impact estimates are equivalent to a loss of 0.737% of 2009 GDP under the A2 climate scenario and a loss of 0.695% of 2009 GDP under the B2 scenario. On the energy supply side, sea level rise and storm surges present significant risks to oil installations and infrastructure at the Petroleum Company of Trinidad and Tobago (PETROTRIN) Pointe-a-Pierre facilities (Singh and El Fouladi, 2006). However, data limitations do not permit the conduct of an economic analysis of the impact of projected sea level rise on oil and gas production.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture Sector in Jamaica

The agricultural sector‟s contribution to GDP and to exports in Jamaica has been declining with the post-war development process that has led to the differentiation of the economy. In 2010, the sector contributed 5.8% of GDP, and 3% to the exports (of goods), but with 36% of employment, it continues to be a major employer. With a little less than half of the population living in rural communities, agricultural activities, and their linkages with other economic activities, continue to play an important role as a source of livelihoods, and by extension, the economic development of the country. Sugar cane cultivation has, with the exception of a couple of decades in the twentieth century when it was superseded by bananas, dominated the agricultural export sector for centuries as the source of the raw materials for the manufacture of sugar for export. In 2005, sugar cane itself accounted for 6.4% of the sector‟s contribution to GDP, and 52% of the contribution of agricultural exports to GDP. Production for the domestic market has long been the larger subsector, organized around the production of root crops, especially yams, vegetables and condiments. To analyse the potential impact of climate change on the agricultural sector, this study selected three important crops for detailed examination. In particular, the study selected sugar cane because of its overwhelming importance to the export subsector of agriculture, and yam and escallion for both their contribution to the domestic subsector as well as the preeminent role yams and escallion play in the economic activities of the communities in the hills of central Jamaica, and the plains of the southwest respectively. As with other studies in this project, the methodology adopted was to compare the estimated values of output on the SRES A2 and B2 Scenarios with the value of output on a “baseline” Business As Usual (BAU), and then estimate the net benefits of investment in the relevant to climate change for the selected crops. The A2 and B2 Scenarios were constructed by applying forecasts of changes in temperature and precipitation generated by INSMET from ECHAM inspired climate models. The BAU “baseline” was a linear projection of the historical trends of yields for each crop. Linear models of yields were estimated for each crop with particular attention to the influence of the two climate variables – temperature and precipitation. These models were then used to forecast yields up to 2050 (table1). These yields were then used to estimate the value of output of the selected crop, as well as the contribution to overall GDP, on each Scenario. The analysis suggested replanting sugar cane with heat resistant varieties, rehabilitating irrigation systems where they existed, and establishing technologically appropriate irrigation systems where they were not for the three selected crops.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture Sector in Guyana

Climate change is anticipated to have potentially disastrous impacts on the economic viability of the agricultural sector, insomuch as traditional agricultural practices render the agricultural sector climate-dependent. Increased temperatures and increased intensity, timing and occurrence of hydro events are expected to challenge plant and animal viability. Under such circumstances, vector control is expected to become more difficult, which may further prejudice the prosperity of plant, livestock and fisheries growth. The impact is expected to be on the quality of agricultural produce and thereby, indirectly, on human health outcomes. The key threat mechanisms are debilitated plant vitality and increased propagation of pests, as drought periods increase the breeding of vectors through water pooling and soil erosion associated with the increased intensity of hydro events. In addition, climate change is likely to affect crop productivity in specific geographical areas through its impact on growing seasons and crop patterns, to the extent that crop varieties cannot adapt.

An economic assessment of the impact of climate change on the health sector in Montserrat

Climate change has the potential to impact on global, regional, and national disease burdens both directly and indirectly. Projecting and valuing these health impacts is important not only in terms of assessing the overall impact of climate change on various parts of the world, but also in terms of ensuring that national and regional decision-making institutions have access to the data necessary to guide investment decisions and future policy design. This report contributes to the research focusing on projecting and valuing the impacts of climate change in the Caribbean by projecting the climate change-induced excess disease burden for two climate change scenarios in Montserrat for the period 2010 - 2050, and by estimating the monetary value associated with this excess disease burden. The diseases initially considered in this report are variety of vector and water-borne impacts and other miscellaneous conditions; specifically, malaria, dengue fever, gastroenteritis/diarrheal disease, schistosomiasis, leptospirosis, ciguatera poisoning, meningococcal meningitis, and cardio-respiratory diseases. Disease projections were based on derived baseline incidence and mortality rates, available dose-response relationships found in the published literature, climate change scenario population projections for the A2 and B2 IPCC SRES scenario families, and annual temperature and precipitation anomalies as projected by the downscaled ECHAM4 global climate model. Monetary valuation was based on a transfer value of statistical life approach with a modification for morbidity. Using discount rates of 1%, 2% and 4%, results show mean annual costs (morbidity and mortality) ranges of $0.61 million (in the B2 scenario, discounted at 4% annually) – $1 million (in the A2 scenario, discounted at 1% annually) for Montserrat. These costs are compared to adaptation cost scenarios involving increased direct spending on per capita health care. This comparison reveals a high benefit-cost ratio suggesting that moderate costs will deliver significant benefit in terms of avoided health burdens in the period 2010-2050. The methodology and results suggest that a focus on coordinated data collection and improved monitoring represents a potentially important no regrets adaptation strategy for Montserrat. Also the report highlights the need for this to be part of a coordinated regional response that avoids duplication in spending.

An assessment of the economic impact Of climate change on the health sector in Saint Lucia

Climate change has the potential to impact on global, regional, and national disease burdens both directly and indirectly. Projecting and valuing these health impacts is important not only in terms of assessing the overall impact of climate change on various parts of the world, but also of ensuring that national and regional decision-making institutions have access to the data necessary to guide investment decisions and future policy design. This report contributes to the research focusing on projecting and valuing the impacts of climate change in the Caribbean by projecting the climate change-induced excess disease burden for two climate change scenarios in Saint Lucia for the period 2010 - 2050, and by estimating the non-market, statistical life-based costs associated with this excess disease burden. The diseases initially considered in this report are a variety of vector and water-borne impacts and other miscellaneous conditions; specifically, malaria, dengue fever, gastroenteritis/diarrhoeal disease, schistosomiasis, leptospirosis, ciguatera poisoning, meningococcal meningitis, and cardio-respiratory diseases. Disease projections were based on derived baseline incidence and mortality rates, available dose-response relationships found in the published literature, climate change scenario population projections for the A2 and B2 IPCC SRES scenario families, and annual temperature and precipitation anomalies as projected by the downscaled ECHAM4 global climate model. Monetary valuation was based on a transfer value of statistical life approach with a modification for morbidity. Using discount rates of 1, 2, and 4%, results show mean annual costs (morbidity and mortality) ranges of $80.2 million (in the B2 scenario, discounted at 4% annually) -$182.4 million (in the A2 scenario, discounted at 1% annually) for St. Lucia.1 These costs are compared to adaptation cost scenarios involving direct and indirect interventions in health care. This comparison reveals a high benefit-cost ratio suggesting that moderate costs will deliver significant benefit in terms of avoided health costs from 2010-2050. In this context indirect interventions target sectors other than healthcare (e.g. water supply). It is also important to highlight that interventions can target both the supply of health infrastructure (including health status and disease monitoring), and households. It is suggested that a focus on coordinated data collection and improved monitoring represents a potentially important no regrets adaptation strategy for St Lucia. Also, the need for this to be part of a coordinated regional response that avoids duplication in spending is highlighted.

An Assessment Of The Economic Impact Of Climate Change On The Transportation Sector In Montserrat

.--I. Introduction.--II. Literature review regarding climate change impacts on international transportation.--III. Economy of the Caribbean subregion and Monserrat.--IV. The international transportaion system in the Caribbean and in Monserrat.--V. Vulnerabilities of international transport system in Monserrat to climate change.--VI. Modelling.-- VII. Economic impact analysis of climate chage on the international transport.-- VIII. Approaches to mitigation and adaptation in the air and sea transportation sectors.-- IX. Conclusions

A study on energy issues in the Caribbean: potential for mitigating climate change

The United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) is seeking to provide support to the Governments of Guyana, Jamaica and Barbados in researching the potential for employing renewable energy technologies to mitigate climate change. This exercise involves the study of different types of renewable technologies and mitigative strategies, with the aim of making recommendations to the governments on the development of their renewable energy sector. The recommendations may also assist in achieving their long-term objectives of reducing poverty and promoting healthy economies and sustainable livelihoods in keeping with the Millennium Development Goals. Guyana, Jamaica and Barbados each face common and specific challenges in their efforts to adequately define and implement their energy and climate policies, in a way that allows them to contribute to the mitigation effort against climate change, while promoting sustainable development within their countries. Each country has demonstrated an understanding of the global and national challenges pertaining to climate change. They have attempted to address these challenges through policies and various programmes implemented by local and international agencies. Documented and undocumented policies have sought to outline the directions to be taken by each territory as they seek to deploy new technologies to address issues related to energy and the environment. While all territories have sought to deploy multiple alternate and renewable technologies simultaneously, it is clear that, given their sizes and resource limitations, no one territory can achieve excellence in all these areas. Guyana has demonstrated the greatest potential for hydro energy and should pursue it as their main area of expertise. The country also has an additional major strategy that includes forest credits and the Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) programme. This approach will be brought to the negotiation table in the upcoming climate change meeting in Copenhagen in December 2009. Of the three countries, Jamaica has the only active significant wind farm deployment, while Barbados has a long tradition in solar energy. Each country might then supplement their energy and fuel mix with other energy and fuel sources and draw from the experience of other countries. Given the synergies that might accrue from adopting a regional approach, the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC) might be well positioned to play a coordinating role. This focus on renewable energy and biofuels should yield good, long-term results as it relates to mitigation against climate change, and good, short- and medium-term results as it relates to the development of sustainable economies. Each country might also achieve energy security, reduced oil dependence, significant reduction in harmful emissions and better foreign exchange management if they pursue good policies and implementation practices. Human and financial resources are critical to the success of planned interventions, and it will be necessary to successfully mobilize these resources in order to be effective in executing key plans.

The effects of climate change on the coasts of Latin America and the Caribbean: Climate variability, dynamics and trends

This effort to study the effects of climate change in the coastal areas of Latin America and the Caribbean has been divided into four main parts in line with the comprehensive risk-assessment methodology developed. The outputs of this regional study are presented in four core documents: an analysis of coastal dynamics and climate variability, a study on the vulnerability of coastal areas, an evaluation of the impacts of climate change and an exploration of how all these different factors can be brought together in an assessment of the risks of the impacts of climate change on the region’s coastal areas. The overall objective of this study is to compile the specific types of information required in order to analyse the economic impacts of climate change in the coastal areas of Latin America and the Caribbean. The area covered by the study encompasses the coastlines of Latin America and the Caribbean (an area totalling approximately 72,182 km in length).

A regulação da economia da inovação: patentes e biodiversidade no desenvolvimento dos países do trópico úmido

Esta dissertação apresenta uma análise da regulação da inovação em países do Trópico Úmido. A questão norteadora é como estes países lidam com a regulação da propriedade industrial nas suas políticas de inovação e como eles incorporam sua rica biodiversidade neste contexto. Propriedade intelectual – particularmente patentes – fornece uma ampla discussão nas políticas de inovação, contudo, também indicam como as questões da biodiversidade são negligenciadas pelos governos ao estabelecer seu caminho de convergência para o desenvolvimento. O estudo selecionou alguns países do Trópico Úmido que são conhecidos por seus esforços de convergência e de grande biodiversidade, são eles: Brasil, China, Cingapura, Filipinas, Índia, Indonésia, Malásia, México, Tailândia, Taiwan e Vietnã. Os dados coletados nas bases de dados de patentes da Organização Mundial da Propriedade Intelectual – OMPI mostram que esses países fazem pouco uso de patentes para a proteção da biodiversidade. O conhecimento científico sobre a riqueza de espécies e sua apropriação pela sociedade é limitada. Isso pode ocorrer quando a biodiversidade não é vista pelas instituições do Trópico Úmido como um ativo crucial. Argumenta-se que os países devem concentrar seus investimentos em P&D em ativos específicos, portanto, nós acreditamos que isso se aplica para a biodiversidade. Fazendo uma análise dos sistemas de patentes de regulamentação desses países selecionados, verificou-se que os requisitos básicos de uma patente são padronizados. Nossa análise sugere que os países do Trópico Úmido redirecionem a sua proteção da propriedade intelectual, a fim de que as inovações futuras destaquem os ativos específicos da região. Além disso, um projeto cuidadoso de leis sobre esses direitos é necessário, levando em conta os aspectos econômicos, sociais e ambientais. A divulgação das vantagens locais através da análise da intensidade da apropriação da biodiversidade por meio do sistema de patentes, bem como a comparação entre a dinâmica das leis de patentes dos países no sistema de inovação, pode orientar as decisões institucionais em relação ao desenvolvimento tecnológico regional.

Impactos do REDD em uma economia camponesa amazônica: uma análise baseada em eficiência reprodutiva

Esta dissertação tem por objetivo analisar as possíveis influências do REDD na economia camponesa amazônica, no que se refere a sua produção e reprodução. Consolidada como uma das estruturas camponesas mais antigas do Brasil, a trajetória tecnológica agroflorestal (T2), estudada nessa pesquisa, vem manejando de forma sustentável, ao longo dos séculos, os territórios onde predomina na Amazônia. Os agentes camponeses têm uma economia impulsionada por uma racionalidade muito específica quanto a sua microeconomia e suas relações com o ambiente capitalista do mercado. Tais peculiaridades da economia exigem análises mais complexas, desqualificando grandezas socialmente estabelecidas, especialmente lucro e renda, como forma de mensurar mudanças nessas estruturas. A Inserção dos recursos monetários do REDD (recursos monetários externos a produção familiar) tem impactos distintos de acordo com o campo de padrão reprodutivo que caracteriza as unidades familiares, padrão esse definido utilizando-se essencialmente as grandezas que atendem os requisitos da racionalidade econômica dessas estruturas: a eficiência reprodutiva (h), o montante de trabalho disponível que atende apenas a reprodução simples (β) e o investimento potencial (i). Caso h esteja convergindo para β, ou seja, para o campo de crise, o REDD promoverá aumento do investimento potencial no curto prazo e da produção em longo prazo. Caso h esteja convergindo para h°=(2*β)/(1+β), ou seja, para o campo de excitação a investimentos, os recursos do REDD possibilitaram o incremento do investimento potencial (já o mais elevado entre os campos) no curto prazo e da produção a longo prazo de acordo com a idade da família. Caso h esteja convergindo para 1, ou seja, o campo de conforto, o REDD a longo prazo causará redução do investimento potencial, da h, da produção e aumentará a dependência de produtos industrializados, o que pode comprometer a longo prazo a reprodução nas unidades desse campo. As famílias que convergem para o campo de excitação a investimentos são a maioria na amostra. Outro resultado é a qualificação dos serviços providos pelos agentes do agrário amazônico, utilizando a noção de paradigma tecnológico por trás das trajetórias tecnológicas e dos % de emissões de GEE por trajetória tecnológica, o que proporcionaria um critério justo e eficiente para um futuro regime de REDD no Brasil e auxiliará na concretização do seu objetivo.

Ceramic raw materials from the State of Maranhão, Brazil. Part 1: chemical and mineralogical characterization and technological properties of clays from São Luis, Rosário, Pinheiro and Mirinzal

Nesse trabalho, foram caracterizadas algumas argilas coletadas nos municípios de São Luís, Rosário, Pinheiro e Mirinzal. A caracterização foi realizada através dos ensaios de difração de raios X, massa específica real, capacidade de troca de cátions (CTC), área superficial, distribuição granulométrica, análise química, análise térmica (TG-DTA) e limites de Atterberg. Ensaios tecnológicos de retração linear, antes e após a queima, absorção de água e tensão de ruptura a flexão, em três pontos, foram realizados em corpos de prova prensados uniaxialmente a 20 MPa e tratados termicamente em 850, 950, 1050, 1150 e 1250ºC. Os resultados obtidos permitiram identificar duas argilas de queima branca, constituídas de quartzo, caolim, feldspato e anatásio, com excelentes propriedades para uso em cerâmica branca. As restantes são queima vermelha e possuem composição mineralógica de quartzo, caolim, feldspato, montmorilonita, hematita e goetita. Estas últimas apresentaram valores moderados de plasticidade e são adequadas para aplicações em cerâmica vermelha.

A desterritorialização da redação no jornalismo contemporâneo

The displacement of writing emerged in urban centers due to its investment in technology and has been developed in major newspapers around the world. With the advent of the internet and technological development, the writing went from analog to digital. That made it no longer required the presence of the journalist in the physical redaction means modifying the various management structures of a writing routine and professional. This happened to capture, edit and distribute your notes, news and reports in online mode. This monograph aims to understand and define the macro change of virtualization in journalism, considering the stages of production of Le Monde Diplomatique, a newspaper whose writing is in process of deterritorialization, the people involved in this activity and the resources used and contributing to the debate on new forms of organization of an editorial environment

The interactive whiteboard in primary school: a case study of a brazilian district school

Interactive whiteboards (IWB) consist of a set of technological equipment organized in order to fulfill a specific task, enabling the development of didactic activities. Because they are associated to computers’ potentiality, interactive whiteboards can provide bigger interactivity between: teacher and students, students and content, and among students. This work’s main objective is to present some of the results yielded from a research related to the way students perceive interactive whiteboards in the classroom. In order to analyze the IWB usage dynamics, some educational applications in the field of mathematics were applied in the 3rd grade of elementary school. Aside from observation, video recordings were made and students were interviewed about the interactive whiteboard, in order to understand how these students observe and engage with the technological tool. IWB do not transform classroom’s reality by themselves, however, their physical presence and usage amount to external reinforcement can change student’s behavior positively.

Drivers of change in animal protein production systems: changes from 'traditional' to 'modern' beef cattle production systems in Brazil

Until 1990, beef cattle production in Brazil was recognized as an enterprise of low investment, low cost of production, as well as an extensive production system that used large land areas to be economically feasible. The situation changed for the Brazilian beef market when the economy stabilized in 1994 and all sectors involved in the beef supply chain were able to predict their associated costs and profits. During the same period, purchasing power of the Brazilian population grew, and as a consequence, consumers began to demand higher quality beef products. This new scenario in the late 1990s and early 2000s has led to more intensive beef production systems in Brazil as well as the need for a greater understanding of how technologies might be applied. As consequence of this evolution, in the last five years, a necessity to increase beef production has occurred. The quality of Brazilian beef has improved compared with beef produced 15 years ago, but continued improvements are needed to achieve excellence in terms of large-scale production of high quality beef, be sustainable over a long period of time, and increase our contribution to global food security.