The Value of Waiting: Foreign Direct Investment with Uncertainty and Imperfect Local Knowledge

This paper examines the role of uncertainty and imperfect local knowledge in foreign direct investment. The main idea comes from the literature on investment under uncertainty, such as Pindyck (1991) and Dixit and Pindyck (1994). We empirically test .the value of waiting. with a dataset on foreign direct investment (FDI). Many factors (e.g., political and economic regulations) as well as uncertainty and the risks due to imperfect local knowledge, determine the attractiveness of FDI. The uncertainty and irreversibility of FDI links the time interval between permission and actual execution of such FDI with explanatory variables, including information on foreign (home) countries and domestic industries. Common factors, such as regulatory change and external shocks, may affect the uncertainty when foreign investors make irreversible FDI decisions. We derive testable hypotheses from models of investment under uncertainty to determine those possible factors that induce delays in FDI, using Korean data over 1962 to 2001.

Technology, Investment, and Economic Fluctuations

Since 1854, the United States has experienced 32 business cycles. While the average length of these cycles (trough-to-trough) has been 51 months, there has been significant variation across different subperiods. This paper attempts to explore the relationship between capital accumulation, technology accumulation, and the business cycle.

Health information exchange: Using metrics to address quality of care and return on investment

Health Information Exchange (HIE) will play a key part in our nation’s effort to improve healthcare. The evidence of HIEs transformational role in healthcare delivery systems is quite limited. The lack of such evidence led us to explore what exists in the healthcare industry that may provide evidence of effectiveness and efficiency of HIEs. The objective of the study was to find out how many fully functional HIEs are using any measurements or metrics to gauge impact of HIE on quality improvement (QI) and on return on investment (ROI).^ A web-based survey was used to determine the number of operational HIEs using metrics for QI and ROI. Our study highlights the fact that only 50 percent of the HIEs who responded use or plan to use metrics. However, 95 percent of the respondents believed HIEs improve quality of care while only 56 percent believed HIE showed positive ROI. Although operational HIEs present numerous opportunities to demonstrate the business model for improving health care quality, evidence to document the impact of HIEs is lacking. ^

A return-on-investment framework to identify conservation priorities in Africa

Environmental conservation activities must continue to become more efficient and effective, especially in Africa where development and population growth pressures continue to escalate. Recently, prioritization of conservation resources has focused on explicitly incorporating the economic costs of conservation along with better defining the outcomes of these expenditures. We demonstrate how new global and continental data that spans social, economic, and ecological sectors creates an opportunity to incorporate return-on-investment (ROI) principles into conservation priority setting for Africa. We suggest that combining conservation priorities that factor in biodiversity value, habitat quality, and conservation management investments across terrestrial, freshwater, and coastal marine environments provides a new lens for setting global conservation priorities. Using this approach we identified seven regions capturing interior and coastal resources that also have high ROI values that support further investment. We illustrate how spatially explicit, yet flexible ROI analysis can help to better address uncertainty, risk, and opportunities for conservation, while making values that guide prioritization more transparent. In one case the results of this prioritization process were used to support new conservation investments. Acknowledging a clear research need to improve cost information, we propose that adopting a flexible ROI framework to set conservation priorities in Africa has multiple potential benefits.

Disciplining Investment Incentives: A Lost Cause?

An E15 Initiative think piece: Investment incentives rank among the most important policy instruments governments employ to influence the locational decisions of multinational firms. In the wake of the recent increase in locational competition and the growing impact of investment incentives and support measures for state-owned enterprises (SOEs), the need for enhanced disciplines on investment incentives has gained political and academic salience. This think piece explores the evolution of investment incentives from a development and rule-making perspective. It summarises the existing literature and examines current practices and recent trends in FDI flows and the use of various investment incentives. This is followed by a discussion of the reasons for the observed stalemate in attempts at disciplinary rule-making. The paper concludes by putting forth recommendations for data gathering and transparency that could further the move toward improved global governance founded on the increasing complementarities of trade, investment, and competition law and policy as the core pillars of a more open, inclusive, and just world economy.

International Investment Law in Latin America: problems and prospects

With the bilingual volume International Investment Law in Latin America: Problems and Prospects, Attila Tanzi, Alessandra Asteriti, Rodrigo Polanco Lazo and Paolo Turrini provide a regional perspective on one of the liveliest branches of international law by situating it in one of the most dynamic areas of the world. Latin America has always had an ambivalent relationship with international investment law and, more recently, it has been the home of harsh and resolute criticisms, questioning the ultimate legitimacy of the regime. By bringing together distinguished scholars of this legal field, the volume analyses ongoing trends and draws lessons from the Continent’s past experiences while identifying possible solutions to the important challenges it faces.

Crowding-out and Crowding-in Effects of Government Bonds Market on Private Sector Investment (Japanese Case Study)

This paper reviews the relationship between public sector investment and private sector investment through government expenditures financed by government bonds in the Japanese economy. This study hypothesizes that deficit financing by bond issues does not crowd out private sector investment, and this finance method may crowd in. Thus the government increases bond issues and sells them in the domestic and international financial markets. This method does not affect interest rates because they are insensitive to government expenditures and they depend on interest rates levels in the international financial market more than in the domestic financial market because of globalization and integration among financial markets.

Human Capital Investment and Poverty Reduction over Generations: A Case from the Rural Philippines, 1979-2003

This paper attempts to identify a pathway out of poverty over generations in the rural Philippines, based on long-term panel data spanning for nearly a quarter of a century. Specifically, it sequentially examines the determinants of schooling, subsequent occupational choices, and current non-farm earnings for the same individuals. We found that an initial rise in parental income, brought about by the land reform and the Green Revolution, among other things, improves the schooling of children, which later allows them to obtain remunerative non-farm jobs. These results suggest that the increased agricultural income, improved human capital through schooling and the development of non-farm sectors are the keys to reducing poverty in the long run. It must be also pointed out that the recent development of the rural non-farm sector offers ample employment opportunities for the less educated, which also significantly contributed to the poverty reduction.

Trade, Foreign Investment and Myanmar's Economic Development during the Transition to an Open Economy

Throughout the 1990s and up to 2005, the adoption of an open-door policy substantially increased the volume of Myanmar's external trade. Imports grew more rapidly than exports in the 1990s owing to the release of pent-up consumer demand during the transition to a market economy. Accordingly, trade deficits expanded. Confronted by a shortage of foreign currency, the government after the late 1990s resorted to rigid controls over the private sector's trade activities. Despite this tightening of policy, Myanmar's external sector has improved since 2000 largely because of the emergence of new export commodities, namely garments and natural gas. Foreign direct investments in Myanmar significantly contributed to the exploration and development of new gas fields. As trade volume grew, Myanmar strengthened its trade relations with neighboring countries such as China, Thailand and India. Although the development of external trade and foreign investment inflows exerted a considerable impact on the Myanmar economy, the external sector has not yet begun to function as a vigorous engine for broad-based and sustainable development.

Foreign Direct Investment Relations between Myanmar and ASEAN

Myanmar highly appreciates foreign direct investment (FDI) as a key solution reducing the development gap with leading ASEAN countries. Accordingly, it is welcomed by the government. Myanmar's Foreign Investment Law was enacted in 1988 soon after the adoption of a market-oriented economic system to boost the flow of FDI into the country. Foreign investors positively responded to these measures in the early years and FDI inflow into Myanmar gradually increased during the period from 1989 to 1996. However, after 1997, FDI inflow was dramatically reduced and markedly declined until 2004. In 2005, FDI inflow increased at an unprecedented rate and reached the highest level in the country's history. However, this growth was not sustainable in the subsequent years, as it declined again and turned stagnant at the previous level. In terms of source regions, ASEAN is a major investor in Myanmar, which investment is significantly exceeds the combined investment of other regions of the world. Among top ten countries, Thailand's investment alone is significantly more than combined total investments of the other nine countries. Next to Thailand in terms of investments in Myanmar are Singapore and Malaysia among ASEAN, at second and third places, respectively. The combined total FDI inflows into the power and oil and gas sector represent about 65 percent of the total investment. There are many opportunities for foreign investment in other sectors, which are not, yet exploited. ASEAN countries will certainly be source countries of Myanmar FDI in the future, and Myanmar should expand to other Asian countries like Japan, India, China, Korea, and Hong Kong where its FDI portfolio is concerned. To effectively attract FDI into the country, Myanmar needs to minimize the effect of policy while opening and encouraging other potential sectors of FDI to foreign investors in ASEAN and Asian countries.