Where will conflicts between alien and rare species occur after climate and land-use change? A test with a novel combined modelling approach

Protecting native biodiversity against alien invasive species requires powerful methods to anticipate these invasions and to protect native species assumed to be at risk. Here, we describe how species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to identify areas predicted as suitable for rare native species and also predicted as highly susceptible to invasion by alien species, at present and under future climate and land-use scenarios. To assess the condition and dynamics of such conflicts, we developed a combined predictive modelling (CPM) approach, which predicts species distributions by combining two SDMs fitted using subsets of predictors classified as acting at either regional or local scales. We illustrate the CPM approach for an alien invader and a rare species associated to similar habitats in northwest Portugal. Combined models predict a wider variety of potential species responses, providing more informative projections of species distributions and future dynamics than traditional, non-combined models. They also provide more informative insight regarding current and future rare-invasive conflict areas. For our studied species, conflict areas of highest conservation relevance are predicted to decrease over the next decade, supporting previous reports that some invasive species may contract their geographic range and impact due to climate change. More generally, our results highlight the more informative character of the combined approach to address practical issues in conservation and management programs, especially those aimed at mitigating the impact of invasive plants, land-use and climate changes in sensitive regions

Recrystallisation rims in zircon (Valle d'Arbedo, Switzerland): an integrated cathodoluminescence, LA-ICP-MS, SHRIMP, and TEM study

Recrystallization rims are a common feature of zircon crystals that underwent metamorphism. We present a microstructural and microchemical study of partially recrystallized zircon grains collected in polymetamorphic migmatites (Valle d'Arbedo, Ticino, Switzerland). The rims are bright in cathodo-luminescence (CL), with sharp and convex contacts characterized by inward-penetrating embayments transgressing igneous zircon cores. Laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) data and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) imaging indicate that the rims are chemically and microstructurally different from the cores. The rims are strongly depleted in REE, with concentrations up to two orders of magnitude lower than in the cores, indicating a significant loss of REE during zircon recrystallization. Enrichment in non-formula elements, such as Ca, has not been observed in the rims. The microstructure of zircon cores shows a dappled intensity at and below the 100 nm scale, possibly due to radiation damage. Other defects such as pores and dislocations are absent in the core except at healed cracks. Zircon rims are mostly dapple-free, but contain nanoscale pores and strain centers, interpreted as fluid inclusions and chemical residues, respectively. Sensitive high-resolution ion microprobe (SHRIMP) U-Pb ages show that the recrystallization of the rims took place >200 Ma ago when the parent igneous zircon was not metamict. The chemical composition and the low-Ti content of the rims indicate that they form at sub-solidus temperatures (550-650 degrees C). Recrystallization rims in Valle d'Arbedo zircon are interpreted as the result of the migration of chemical reaction fronts in which fluid triggered in situ and contemporaneous interface-coupled dissolution-reprecipitation mechanisms. This study indicates that strong lattice strain resulting from the incorporation of a large amount of impurities and structural defects is not a necessary condition for zircon to recrystallize. Our observations suggest that the early formation of recrystallization rims played a major role in preserving zircon from the more recent Alpine metamorphic overprint.

An Integrated Work Force Planning Strategy For The Health Services 2009 - 2012

An Integrated Work Force Planning Strategy For The Health Services 2009 – 2012 Click here to download PDF 1.6mb

Combining probabilistic land-use change and tree population dynamics modelling to simulate responses in mountain forests

Altitudinal tree lines are mainly constrained by temperature, but can also be influenced by factors such as human activity, particularly in the European Alps, where centuries of agricultural use have affected the tree-line. Over the last decades this trend has been reversed due to changing agricultural practices and land-abandonment. We aimed to combine a statistical land-abandonment model with a forest dynamics model, to take into account the combined effects of climate and human land-use on the Alpine tree-line in Switzerland. Land-abandonment probability was expressed by a logistic regression function of degree-day sum, distance from forest edge, soil stoniness, slope, proportion of employees in the secondary and tertiary sectors, proportion of commuters and proportion of full-time farms. This was implemented in the TreeMig spatio-temporal forest model. Distance from forest edge and degree-day sum vary through feed-back from the dynamics part of TreeMig and climate change scenarios, while the other variables remain constant for each grid cell over time. The new model, TreeMig-LAb, was tested on theoretical landscapes, where the variables in the land-abandonment model were varied one by one. This confirmed the strong influence of distance from forest and slope on the abandonment probability. Degree-day sum has a more complex role, with opposite influences on land-abandonment and forest growth. TreeMig-LAb was also applied to a case study area in the Upper Engadine (Swiss Alps), along with a model where abandonment probability was a constant. Two scenarios were used: natural succession only (100% probability) and a probability of abandonment based on past transition proportions in that area (2.1% per decade). The former showed new forest growing in all but the highest-altitude locations. The latter was more realistic as to numbers of newly forested cells, but their location was random and the resulting landscape heterogeneous. Using the logistic regression model gave results consistent with observed patterns of land-abandonment: existing forests expanded and gaps closed, leading to an increasingly homogeneous landscape.

Public Service Agreement 2010-2014 (Croke Park Agreement) Integrated Departmental and Agencies Action Plan 2012

Public Service Agreement 2010-2014 (Croke Park Agreement) Integrated Departmental and Agencies Action Plan 2012 Integrated Departmental and Agencies Action Plan (Jan 2012) PDF 54kb Integrated Departmental and Agencies Action Plan (Oct 2012) PDF 194kb  

Quantification of in vivo short echo-time proton magnetic resonance spectra at 14.1 T using two different approaches of modelling the macromolecule spectrum

Reliable quantification of the macromolecule signals in short echo-time H-1 MRS spectra is particularly important at high magnetic fields for an accurate quantification of metabolite concentrations (the neurochemical profile) due to effectively increased spectral resolution of the macromolecule components. The purpose of the present study was to assess two approaches of quantification, which take the contribution of macromolecules into account in the quantification step. H-1 spectra were acquired on a 14.1 T/26 cm horizontal scanner on five rats using the ultra-short echo-time SPECIAL (spin echo full intensity acquired localization) spectroscopy sequence. Metabolite concentrations were estimated using LCModel, combined with a simulated basis set of metabolites using published spectral parameters and either the spectrum of macromolecules measured in vivo, using an inversion recovery technique, or baseline simulated by the built-in spline function. The fitted spline function resulted in a smooth approximation of the in vivo macromolecules, but in accordance with previous studies using Subtract-QUEST could not reproduce completely all features of the in vivo spectrum of macromolecules at 14.1 T. As a consequence, the measured macromolecular 'baseline' led to a more accurate and reliable quantification at higher field strengths.

El Cercle de l'Anell : anàlisi del consum d'un producte cultural segons el model del Circuit de la Cultura : tolkiendili i ringers. El cas de l'Smial de Lórien.

Anàlisi del fenomen cultural creat al voltant de J.R.R. Tolkien, l'autor d'El Senyor dels Anells, tot emprant el model del Circuit de la Cultura (Du Gay et als). La recerca se centra en el Consum: els fans i les fans de Tolkien i de la trilogia cinematogràfica 'The Lord of the Rings': tolkiendili i ringers.

Modelling the mechanical aspects of the curing process of magneto-sensitive elastomeric materials

In this paper, a phenomenologically motivated magneto-mechanically coupled finite strain elastic framework for simulating the curing process of polymers in the presence of a magnetic load is proposed. This approach is in line with previous works by Hossain and co-workers on finite strain curing modelling framework for the purely mechanical polymer curing (Hossain et al., 2009b). The proposed thermodynamically consistent approach is independent of any particular free energy function that may be used for the fully-cured magneto-sensitive polymer modelling, i.e. any phenomenological or micromechanical-inspired free energy can be inserted into the main modelling framework. For the fabrication of magneto-sensitive polymers, micron-size ferromagnetic particles are mixed with the liquid matrix material in the uncured stage. The particles align in a preferred direction with the application of a magnetic field during the curing process. The polymer curing process is a complex (visco) elastic process that transforms a fluid to a solid with time. Such transformation process is modelled by an appropriate constitutive relation which takes into account the temporal evolution of the material parameters appearing in a particular energy function. For demonstration in this work, a frequently used energy function is chosen, i.e. the classical Mooney-Rivlin free energy enhanced by coupling terms. Several representative numerical examples are demonstrated that prove the capability of our approach to correctly capture common features in polymers undergoing curing processes in the presence of a magneto-mechanical coupled load.

Effects of tetrodotoxin and ion replacements on the short-circuit current induced by Escherichiacoli heat stable enterotoxin across small intestine of the gerbil (Gerbillus cheesmani)

The effects of mucosally added Escherichia coli heat stable enterotoxin (STa 30 ng ml-1) on the basal short-circuit current (Isc in µA cm-2) across stripped and unstripped sheets of jejuna and ilea taken from fed, starved (4 days, water ad lib) and undernourished (50% control food intake for 21 days) gerbil (Gerbillus cheesmani) were investigated. The effect of neurotoxin tetrodotoxin (TTX 10 µM) and the effects of replacing chloride by gluconate or the effects of removing bicarbonate from bathing buffers on the maximum increase in Isc induced by STa were also investigated. The maximum increase in Isc which resulted from the addition of STa were significantly higher in jejuna and ilea taken from starved and undernourished gerbils when compared with the fed control both using stripped and unstripped sheets. In the two regions of the small intestine taken from fed and starved animals TTX reduced the maximum increase in Isc induced by STa across unstripped sheets only. Moreover in jejuna and ilea taken from undernourished gerbils TTX reduced significantly the maximum increase in Isc induced by STa across stripped and unstripped sheets. Replacing chloride by gluconate decreased the maximum increase in Isc induced by STa across jejuna and ilea taken from undernourished gerbils only. Removing bicarbonates from bathing buffer decreased the maximum increase in Isc across the jejuna and ilea taken from starved and undernourished gerbils.

The UniProtKB/Swiss-Prot Tox-Prot program: A central hub of integrated venom protein data.

Animal toxins are of interest to a wide range of scientists, due to their numerous applications in pharmacology, neurology, hematology, medicine, and drug research. This, and to a lesser extent the development of new performing tools in transcriptomics and proteomics, has led to an increase in toxin discovery. In this context, providing publicly available data on animal toxins has become essential. The UniProtKB/Swiss-Prot Tox-Prot program (http://www.uniprot.org/program/Toxins) plays a crucial role by providing such an access to venom protein sequences and functions from all venomous species. This program has up to now curated more than 5000 venom proteins to the high-quality standards of UniProtKB/Swiss-Prot (release 2012_02). Proteins targeted by these toxins are also available in the knowledgebase. This paper describes in details the type of information provided by UniProtKB/Swiss-Prot for toxins, as well as the structured format of the knowledgebase.

An Integrated Work Force Planning Strategy For The Health Services 2009 - 2012

Workforce planning identifies the composition of the workforce required to deliver health service goals. It encompasses a range of human resource activities aimed at the short, medium and long-term. Workforce planning that is integrated with service and financial planning offers the best opportunity for linking human resource decisions to the strategic goals for the health services. Systems and structures are required to support and develop workforce planning activities

Clarifying approaches to: health needs assessment, health impact assessment, integrated impact assessment, health equity audit, and race equality impact assessment

Planners, policy makers and practitioners across all sectors in England use a range of approaches to assess health needs, inform decisions and assess impact. Use of these approaches can lead to improved health outcomes and reduced inequalities through auditing provision, access and outcomes. Five main approaches are used by local, regional and national government, voluntary agencies and the NHS: ۢ Health needs assessment (HNA) ۢ Health impact assessment (HIA) ۢ Integrated impact assessment (IIA) ۢ Health equity audit (HEA) ۢ Race equality impact assessment (REIA)