Flat, flatter, flattest: the English Heritage wetland surveys in retrospect

Since 1973, English Heritage has supported four major regional surveys of England's wetlands- in the Somerset Levels, the Fens of Eastern England, the wetlands of the northwest of England and the Humber wetlands. Each of these projects developed a range of methods and techniques particular to the landscape that was studied and the results from the surveys reflect this diversity of approach. This paper compares and contrast these approaches, and evaluates their effect on the overall results of each of these surveys.

IntFOLD: an integrated server for modelling protein structures and functions from amino acid sequences

IntFOLD is an independent web server that integrates our leading methods for structure and function prediction. The server provides a simple unified interface that aims to make complex protein modelling data more accessible to life scientists. The server web interface is designed to be intuitive and integrates a complex set of quantitative data, so that 3D modelling results can be viewed on a single page and interpreted by non-expert modellers at a glance. The only required input to the server is an amino acid sequence for the target protein. Here we describe major performance and user interface updates to the server, which comprises an integrated pipeline of methods for: tertiary structure prediction, global and local 3D model quality assessment, disorder prediction, structural domain prediction, function prediction and modelling of protein-ligand interactions. The server has been independently validated during numerous CASP (Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction) experiments, as well as being continuously evaluated by the CAMEO (Continuous Automated Model Evaluation) project. The IntFOLD server is available at: http://www.reading.ac.uk/bioinf/IntFOLD/

Theoretical insight into diagnosing observation error correlations using observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis statistics

To improve the quantity and impact of observations used in data assimilation it is necessary to take into account the full, potentially correlated, observation error statistics. A number of methods for estimating correlated observation errors exist, but a popular method is a diagnostic that makes use of statistical averages of observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis residuals. The accuracy of the results it yields is unknown as the diagnostic is sensitive to the difference between the exact background and exact observation error covariances and those that are chosen for use within the assimilation. It has often been stated in the literature that the results using this diagnostic are only valid when the background and observation error correlation length scales are well separated. Here we develop new theory relating to the diagnostic. For observations on a 1D periodic domain we are able to the show the effect of changes in the assumed error statistics used in the assimilation on the estimated observation error covariance matrix. We also provide bounds for the estimated observation error variance and eigenvalues of the estimated observation error correlation matrix. We demonstrate that it is still possible to obtain useful results from the diagnostic when the background and observation error length scales are similar. In general, our results suggest that when correlated observation errors are treated as uncorrelated in the assimilation, the diagnostic will underestimate the correlation length scale. We support our theoretical results with simple illustrative examples. These results have potential use for interpreting the derived covariances estimated using an operational system.

Probabilistic wind power forecasts with an inverse power curve transformation and censored regression

Forecasting wind power is an important part of a successful integration of wind power into the power grid. Forecasts with lead times longer than 6 h are generally made by using statistical methods to post-process forecasts from numerical weather prediction systems. Two major problems that complicate this approach are the non-linear relationship between wind speed and power production and the limited range of power production between zero and nominal power of the turbine. In practice, these problems are often tackled by using non-linear non-parametric regression models. However, such an approach ignores valuable and readily available information: the power curve of the turbine's manufacturer. Much of the non-linearity can be directly accounted for by transforming the observed power production into wind speed via the inverse power curve so that simpler linear regression models can be used. Furthermore, the fact that the transformed power production has a limited range can be taken care of by employing censored regression models. In this study, we evaluate quantile forecasts from a range of methods: (i) using parametric and non-parametric models, (ii) with and without the proposed inverse power curve transformation and (iii) with and without censoring. The results show that with our inverse (power-to-wind) transformation, simpler linear regression models with censoring perform equally or better than non-linear models with or without the frequently used wind-to-power transformation.

Bayesian model comparison with un-normalised likelihoods

Models for which the likelihood function can be evaluated only up to a parameter-dependent unknown normalizing constant, such as Markov random field models, are used widely in computer science, statistical physics, spatial statistics, and network analysis. However, Bayesian analysis of these models using standard Monte Carlo methods is not possible due to the intractability of their likelihood functions. Several methods that permit exact, or close to exact, simulation from the posterior distribution have recently been developed. However, estimating the evidence and Bayes’ factors for these models remains challenging in general. This paper describes new random weight importance sampling and sequential Monte Carlo methods for estimating BFs that use simulation to circumvent the evaluation of the intractable likelihood, and compares them to existing methods. In some cases we observe an advantage in the use of biased weight estimates. An initial investigation into the theoretical and empirical properties of this class of methods is presented. Some support for the use of biased estimates is presented, but we advocate caution in the use of such estimates.

An implicit technique for solving 3D low Reynolds number moving free surface flows

This paper describes the development of an implicit finite difference method for solving transient three-dimensional incompressible free surface flows. To reduce the CPU time of explicit low-Reynolds number calculations, we have combined a projection method with an implicit technique for treating the pressure on the free surface. The projection method is employed to uncouple the velocity and the pressure fields, allowing each variable to be solved separately. We employ the normal stress condition on the free surface to derive an implicit technique for calculating the pressure at the free surface. Numerical results demonstrate that this modification is essential for the construction of methods that are more stable than those provided by discretizing the free surface explicitly. In addition, we show that the proposed method can be applied to viscoelastic fluids. Numerical results include the simulation of jet buckling and extrudate swell for Reynolds numbers in the range [0.01, 0.5]. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Systemarkitektur för presentation av geografiskinformation- Utredning av Informationssystem och produkter

Banverket Trafik has a responsibility to make sure that the companies who traffic the Swedish railroad have the correct information about the status of the railroad. One of Banverket Trafiks information systems (Opera) presents the train’s actual position on a map and provides the user with physical information about the trains. Due to increasing demands on the information systems, Banverket Trafik needs to update the present system architecture in order to manage the increasing demands on map graphics and map functions. This paper analysis the information system Opera on the basis of theory and support of methods and discuss problems and demands for Opera. Further we investigate three GIS products to se if they meet the demands. Information about the products was gathered from both supplier and independent users to get a just picture of the products potentials. This paper comprises a suggestion of new system architecture that meet these needs. The suggested system architecture is capable of handling the map graphics and the map’s functions of more than one information system. Hopefully more than one information system will use the suggested system architecture as a map service.

Español como lengua extranjera : un estudio de métodos de enseñanza

This essay concerns methods of teaching, with the focus being mainly on methods of grammar, interaction, oral methods and the real context. The purpose of the study is to examine different methods used in the education of Spanish as a foreign language, as well as to show the effect of those methods. The investigation is based on the following questions: Which methods are used by teachers of Spanish as a foreign language? Which of these methods would be the most effective ones when it comes to learning? The methods of investigation used in the study are: search in related literature and interviews. The interviews are made with three teachers of Spanish as a foreign language in Sweden, and the analysis includes a comparison between the responses and the theories found in the literature. The result of the investigation shows that the effect of several of the methods depends on the students involved, their motivation and personalities. Another conclusion made is the fact that dialogues are regarded as effective and of good use in the teaching of a foreign language. Working in groups is moreover considered an excellent method according to the result of this study.

Vikten av säkra nätverk

The purpose of this thesis is to show how to use vulnerability testing to identify and search for security flaws in networks of computers. The goal is partly to give a casual description of different types of methods of vulnerability testing and partly to present the method and results from a vulnerability test. A document containing the results of the vulnerability test will be handed over and a solution to the found high risk vulnerabilities. The goal is also to carry out and present this work as a form of a scholarly work.The problem was to show how to perform vulnerability tests and identify vulnerabilities in the organization's network and systems. Programs would be run under controlled circumstances in a way that they did not burden the network. Vulnerability tests were conducted sequentially, when data from the survey was needed to continue the scan.A survey of the network was done and data in the form of operating system, among other things, were collected in the tables. A number of systems were selected from the tables and were scanned with Nessus. The result was a table across the network and a table of found vulnerabilities. The table of vulnerabilities has helped the organization to prevent these vulnerabilities by updating the affected computers. Also a wireless network with WEP encryption, which is insecure, has been detected and decrypted.

Load and Season Adapted Solar Collectors

In Sweden solar irradiation and space heating loads are unevenly distributed over the year. Domestic hot water loads may be nearly constant. Test results on solar collector performance are often reported as yearly output of a certain collector at fixed temperatures, e g 25, 50 and 75 C. These data are not suitable for dimensioning of solar systems, because the actual performance of the collector depends heavily on solar fraction and load distribution over the year.At higher latitudes it is difficult to attain high solar fractions for buildings, due to overheating in summer and small marginal output for added collector area. Solar collectors with internal reflectors offer possibilities to evade overheating problems and deliver more energy at seasons when the load is higher. There are methods for estimating the yearly angular irradiation distribution, but there is a lack of methods for describing the load and the storage in such a way as to enable optical design of season and load adapted collectors.This report describes two methods for estimation of solar system performance with relevance for season and load adaption. Results regarding attainable solar fractions as a function of collector features, load profiles, load levels and storage characteristics are reported. The first method uses monthly collector output data at fixed temperatures from the simulation program MINSUN for estimating solar fractions for different load profiles and load levels. The load level is defined as estimated yearly collector output at constant collector temperature divided be yearly load. This table may examplify the results:CollectorLoadLoadSolar Improvementtypeprofile levelfractionover flat plateFlat plateDHW 75 %59 %Load adaptedDHW 75 %66 %12 %Flat plateSpace heating 50 %22 %Load adaptedSpace heating 50 %28 %29 %The second method utilises simulations with one-hour timesteps for collectors connected to a simplified storage and a variable load. Collector output, optical and thermal losses, heat overproduction, load level and storage temperature are presented as functions of solar incidence angles. These data are suitable for optical design of load adapted solar collectors. Results for a Stockholm location indicate that a solar combisystem with a solar fraction around 30 % should have collectors that reduce heat production at solar heights above 30 degrees and have optimum efficiency for solar heights between 8 and 30 degrees.

Kinesiska affärsetableringar i Sverige : Kartläggning över områden som förbättrar chanserna att lyckas

Aim and starting point: The aim of the Bachelor thesis is to examine and define the paramount knowledge Chinese businessmen need in order to succeed with their establishment in Sweden. The authors also seek to answer what incentives attract Chinese businessmen to come to Sweden, as well as how Chinese establishments in Sweden can be predicted to appear in the future. Results/conclusions: The study outlines key areas in which Chinese businessmen should have knowledge in order to succeed with their establishment in Sweden. The results also gives an indication on how Chinese business establishments in Sweden will appear in the future, into which areas the Chinese mainly invest/establish in, as well as why and how these are done. On the basis of this material the authors generate proposals for educational packages which among others can be sold to Chinese businessmen. Knowledge overview: Here relevant theory connected to the area of study is presented. The knowledge overview presents the Swedish in relation to the Chinese perspective in areas such as: culture, hierarchy, relations, Face, communication, HRM, education, CSR and labour law. The knowledge overview can itself contribute to fostering an understanding of differences between Sweden and China. Method: The area of research has been accessed by a combination of methods. The study is both deductive and explorative. The main channel of information and data collection are in-depth interviews which are used as a deductive starting point, an expert investigation and as a Grounded Theory. As a complement the authors have also conducted a delphi study in which an expert panel answered questions concerning the future of Chinese establishments in Sweden. The deductive and explorative parts have been analyzed individually and have each generated a conclusion. These conclusions have then been interwoven in a synthesis that highlights and creates new knowledge.

Forensisk analys av volatilt minne från operativsystemet OS X

Behovet av att analysera volatilt minne från Macintosh-datorer med OS X har blivit allt mer betydelsefull på grund av att deras datorer blivit allt populärare och att volatil minnesanalysering blivit en allt viktigare del i en IT-forensikers arbete. Anledningen till att volatil minnesanalysering blivit allt viktigare är för att det går att finna viktig information som inte finns lagrad permanent på datorns interna hårddisk. Problemet som låg till grunden för det här examensarbetet var att det uppenbart fanns brist på undersökningsmetoder av det volatila minnet för Mac-datorer med OS X.Syftet med detta arbete var därför att undersöka möjligheten att utvinna information från ett volatilt minne från en Mac-dator med OS X genom att kartlägga och bedöma olika undersökningsmetoder. För att göra denna undersökning har litteraturstudier, informella intervjuer, egna kunskaper och praktiska försök genomförts.Slutsatsen blev att möjligheten att utvinna information från det volatila minnet från en Mac-dator med OS X är relativt begränsad. Det största problemet är själva dumpningen av minnet. Många av dumpningsmetoderna som finns att tillgå kräver administrativa rättigheter. Vid analysering av en minnesdump bör man aldrig förlita sig på en analysmetod då olika analysmetoder ger olika resultat som kan vara till nytta för en vidare undersökning av en Mac-dator.

Mobile systems for monitoring Parkinson's disease

A challenge for the clinical management of Parkinson's disease (PD) is the large within- and between-patient variability in symptom profiles as well as the emergence of motor complications which represent a significant source of disability in patients. This thesis deals with the development and evaluation of methods and systems for supporting the management of PD by using repeated measures, consisting of subjective assessments of symptoms and objective assessments of motor function through fine motor tests (spirography and tapping), collected by means of a telemetry touch screen device. One aim of the thesis was to develop methods for objective quantification and analysis of the severity of motor impairments being represented in spiral drawings and tapping results. This was accomplished by first quantifying the digitized movement data with time series analysis and then using them in data-driven modelling for automating the process of assessment of symptom severity. The objective measures were then analysed with respect to subjective assessments of motor conditions. Another aim was to develop a method for providing comparable information content as clinical rating scales by combining subjective and objective measures into composite scores, using time series analysis and data-driven methods. The scores represent six symptom dimensions and an overall test score for reflecting the global health condition of the patient. In addition, the thesis presents the development of a web-based system for providing a visual representation of symptoms over time allowing clinicians to remotely monitor the symptom profiles of their patients. The quality of the methods was assessed by reporting different metrics of validity, reliability and sensitivity to treatment interventions and natural PD progression over time. Results from two studies demonstrated that the methods developed for the fine motor tests had good metrics indicating that they are appropriate to quantitatively and objectively assess the severity of motor impairments of PD patients. The fine motor tests captured different symptoms; spiral drawing impairment and tapping accuracy related to dyskinesias (involuntary movements) whereas tapping speed related to bradykinesia (slowness of movements). A longitudinal data analysis indicated that the six symptom dimensions and the overall test score contained important elements of information of the clinical scales and can be used to measure effects of PD treatment interventions and disease progression. A usability evaluation of the web-based system showed that the information presented in the system was comparable to qualitative clinical observations and the system was recognized as a tool that will assist in the management of patients.

Hälsofrämjande friskvårdsarbete : En fallstudie om friskvårdsarbete inom kommunal vård- och omsorgsförvaltning

Under senare år har frågan om ett hållbart arbetsliv blivit allt viktigare. Det innebär att goda arbetsförhållanden kommer att bidra till att människor orkar arbeta fram till pensionen. Friskvård har gått från att enbart vara en förmån till att bli en investering för att främja hälsa. Anställdas hälsa och arbetsmiljö är en del av personalfunktionens övergripande arbete för att behålla personal. Fysiskt krävande yrken som omsorgsarbete är ett stort arbetsmiljöproblem som kräver att organisationer försöker förhindra att arbetsrelaterad sjukdom inträffar. Syftet med detta examensarbete är att undersöka vilka förutsättningarna, ur ett medarbetarperspektiv, organisationer bör ta i beaktande för att skapa ett framgångsrikt arbete med hälsofrämjande friskvårdsaktiviteter inom kommunal vård- och omsorgsförvaltning. Arbetet är begränsat till personal inom Ludvika kommun. Friskvård kan förebygga sjukdom, men det kan också öka individens välbefinnande och kan därmed utgöra en framgångsrik strategi för att skapa hälsosammare arbetsplatser. En kombination av metoder användes för datainsamling, i form av en kvantitativ enkätundersökning och en kvalitativ fokusgruppintervju. Resultaten visade bland annat att majoriteten av de anställda är positiva till friskvård på arbetstid och att det är ett fördelaktigt sätt att öka deltagandet, även för dem som är mindre fysiskt aktiva. Tidsbrist och socialt stöd är skäl till varför fysisk aktivitet är lägre eller uteblir. Förutom att de anställda som har ett individuellt ansvar är det chefer, i samråd med organisationen, som har det övergripande ansvaret för att skapa goda förutsättningar för att främja hälsan.

Utveckling av metod för att bedöma behovet av ogräsbekämpning i spår

A system for weed management on railway embankments that is both adapted to the environment and efficient in terms of resources requires knowledge and understanding about the growing conditions of vegetation so that methods to control its growth can be adapted accordingly. Automated records could complement present-day manual inspections and over time come to replace these. One challenge is to devise a method that will result in a reasonable breakdown of gathered information that can be managed rationally by affected parties and, at the same time, serve as a basis for decisions with sufficient precision. The project examined two automated methods that may be useful for the Swedish Transport Administration in the future: 1) A machine vision method, which makes use of camera sensors as a way of sensing the environment in the visible and near infrared spectrum; and 2) An N-Sensor method, which transmits light within an area that is reflected by the chlorophyll in the plants. The amount of chlorophyll provides a value that can be correlated with the biomass. The choice of technique depends on how the information is to be used. If the purpose is to form a general picture of the growth of vegetation on railway embankments as a way to plan for maintenance measures, then the N-Sensor technique may be the right choice. If the plan is to form a general picture as well as monitor and survey current and exact vegetation status on the surface over time as a way to fight specific vegetation with the correct means, then the machine vision method is the better of the two. Both techniques involve registering data using GPS positioning. In the future, it will be possible to store this information in databases that are directly accessible to stakeholders online during or in conjunction with measures to deal with the vegetation. The two techniques were compared with manual (visual) estimations as to the levels of vegetation growth. The observers (raters) visual estimation of weed coverage (%) differed statistically from person to person. In terms of estimating the frequency (number) of woody plants (trees and bushes) in the test areas, the observers were generally in agreement. The same person is often consistent in his or her estimation: it is the comparison with the estimations of others that can lead to misleading results. The system for using the information about vegetation growth requires development. The threshold for the amount of weeds that can be tolerated in different track types is an important component in such a system. The classification system must be capable of dealing with the demands placed on it so as to ensure the quality of the track and other pre-conditions such as traffic levels, conditions pertaining to track location, and the characteristics of the vegetation. The project recommends that the Swedish Transport Administration: Discusses how threshold values for the growth of vegetation on railway embankments can be determined Carries out registration of the growth of vegetation over longer and a larger number of railway sections using one or more of the methods studied in the project Introduces a system that effectively matches the information about vegetation to its position Includes information about the growth of vegetation in the records that are currently maintained of the track’s technical quality, and link the data material to other maintenance-related databases Establishes a number of representative surfaces in which weed inventories (by measuring) are regularly conducted, as a means of developing an overview of the long-term development that can serve as a basis for more precise prognoses in terms of vegetation growth Ensures that necessary opportunities for education are put in place