Multivariate FIAPARCH modelling of financial markets with dynamic correlations in times of crisis

This paper applies the vector AR-DCC-FIAPARCH model to eight national stock market indices' daily returns from 1988 to 2010, taking into account the structural breaks of each time series linked to the Asian and the recent Global financial crisis. We find significant cross effects, as well as long range volatility dependence, asymmetric volatility response to positive and negative shocks, and the power of returns that best fits the volatility pattern. One of the main findings of the model analysis is the higher dynamic correlations of the stock markets after a crisis event, which means increased contagion effects between the markets. The fact that during the crisis the conditional correlations remain on a high level indicates a continuous herding behaviour during these periods of increased market volatility. Finally, during the recent Global financial crisis the correlations remain on a much higher level than during the Asian financial crisis.

Semantic Search of Internet Information Resources on Base of Ontologies and Multilinguistic Thesauruses

The approaches to the analysis of various information resources pertinent to user requirements at a semantic level are determined by the thesauruses of the appropriate subject domains. The algorithms of formation and normalization of the multilinguistic thesaurus, and also methods of their comparison are given.

Model Construction and Research using System Compositional Approach on Natural Hierarchical Neural Networks. Development of Computer Toolbox

System compositional approach to model construction and research of informational processes, which take place in biological hierarchical neural networks, is being discussed. A computer toolbox has been successfully developed for solution of tasks from this scientific sphere. A series of computational experiments investigating the work of this toolbox on olfactory bulb model has been carried out. The well-known psychophysical phenomena have been reproduced in experiments.

A Knowledge-Oriented Technology of System-Objective Analysis and Modelling of Business-Systems

A new original method and CASE-tool of system analysis and modelling are represented. They are for the first time consistent with the requirements of object-oriented technology of informational systems design. They essentially facilitate the construction of organisational systems models and increase the quality of the organisational designing and basic technological processes of object application developing.

Visualisation of quality information for geospatial and remote sensing data:providing the GIS community with the decision support tools for geospatial dataset quality evaluation

The evaluation of geospatial data quality and trustworthiness presents a major challenge to geospatial data users when making a dataset selection decision. The research presented here therefore focused on defining and developing a GEO label – a decision support mechanism to assist data users in efficient and effective geospatial dataset selection on the basis of quality, trustworthiness and fitness for use. This thesis thus presents six phases of research and development conducted to: (a) identify the informational aspects upon which users rely when assessing geospatial dataset quality and trustworthiness; (2) elicit initial user views on the GEO label role in supporting dataset comparison and selection; (3) evaluate prototype label visualisations; (4) develop a Web service to support GEO label generation; (5) develop a prototype GEO label-based dataset discovery and intercomparison decision support tool; and (6) evaluate the prototype tool in a controlled human-subject study. The results of the studies revealed, and subsequently confirmed, eight geospatial data informational aspects that were considered important by users when evaluating geospatial dataset quality and trustworthiness, namely: producer information, producer comments, lineage information, compliance with standards, quantitative quality information, user feedback, expert reviews, and citations information. Following an iterative user-centred design (UCD) approach, it was established that the GEO label should visually summarise availability and allow interrogation of these key informational aspects. A Web service was developed to support generation of dynamic GEO label representations and integrated into a number of real-world GIS applications. The service was also utilised in the development of the GEO LINC tool – a GEO label-based dataset discovery and intercomparison decision support tool. The results of the final evaluation study indicated that (a) the GEO label effectively communicates the availability of dataset quality and trustworthiness information and (b) GEO LINC successfully facilitates ‘at a glance’ dataset intercomparison and fitness for purpose-based dataset selection.

The effect of timeliness and credit ratings on the information content of earnings announcements

Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of timeliness and credit ratings on the information content of the earnings announcements of Greek listed firms from 2001 to 2008. Using the classical event study methodology and regression analysis, we find that firms tend to release good news on time and are inclined to delay the release of bad news. We also provide evidence that the level of corporate risk differentiates the information content of earnings according to the credit rating category. Specifically, firms displaying high creditworthiness enjoy positive excess returns on earnings announcement dates. In contrast, firms with low creditworthiness undergo significant share price erosions on earnings announcement days. We also observe a substitution effect between timeliness and credit ratings in relation to the information content of earnings announcements. Specifically, we find that as the credit category of earnings-announcing firms improves, the informational role of timeliness is mitigated.

Acoustic source characteristics, across-formant integration, and speech intelligibility under competitive conditions

An important aspect of speech perception is the ability to group or select formants using cues in the acoustic source characteristics-for example, fundamental frequency (F0) differences between formants promote their segregation. This study explored the role of more radical differences in source characteristics. Three-formant (F1+F2+F3) synthetic speech analogues were derived from natural sentences. In Experiment 1, F1+F3 were generated by passing a harmonic glottal source (F0 = 140 Hz) through second-order resonators (H1+H3); in Experiment 2, F1+F3 were tonal (sine-wave) analogues (T1+T3). F2 could take either form (H2 or T2). In some conditions, the target formants were presented alone, either monaurally or dichotically (left ear = F1+F3; right ear = F2). In others, they were accompanied by a competitor for F2 (F1+F2C+F3; F2), which listeners must reject to optimize recognition. Competitors (H2C or T2C) were created using the time-reversed frequency and amplitude contours of F2. Dichotic presentation of F2 and F2C ensured that the impact of the competitor arose primarily through informational masking. In the absence of F2C, the effect of a source mismatch between F1+F3 and F2 was relatively modest. When F2C was present, intelligibility was lowest when F2 was tonal and F2C was harmonic, irrespective of which type matched F1+F3. This finding suggests that source type and context, rather than similarity, govern the phonetic contribution of a formant. It is proposed that wideband harmonic analogues are more effective informational maskers than narrowband tonal analogues, and so become dominant in across-frequency integration of phonetic information when placed in competition.

The Knowledge in Automotive Field Representation with Modern Technologies

Modern technologies have changed the way of presenting information in archives. This makes it possible to introduce new services, which was unimaginable a few years ago. Digitalization, security and virtual presentation of objects in the sphere of motoring by application of technologies, based on knowledge about how to create digital resources is the theme of this project. The aim of AutoKnow project is to carry out a research and create a multi- media digital archive AutoKnow and Experimental Virtual Motor Laboratory (EVML) with Motor Library (ML) from digital multi-media patterns from a selected group of objects in the sphere of automobile technology, presented by NMU. This makes it possible to widely apply multi-media collections in automobile engineering, teaching, research work in that sphere and serve the interests of a large number of auto-amateurs as well in Bulgaria. The research and development of АutoKnow is in the following mutually related fields: - Creation and annotation of collections of objects in the sphere of automobiles; - Creation, analysis and security of a digital archive AutoKnow; - Design and creation of Digital Motor Library; - Socially-oriented applications in education, scientific studies and Experimental Virtual Motor Laboratory; - Informational System for teaching and testing of knowledge in the sphere of automobiles MindCheck.

Digital Collections in Regional Public Library “P. R. Slaveikov” – Veliko Tarnovo in the Context of the National Program for Preservation and Promotion of Literary Heritage

Nowadays the great public libraries in Bulgaria are gaining the appearance of digital centers which provide new informational resources and services in the digital space. The digital conversion as a way of preservation is one of the important priorities of Regional Public Library in Veliko Tarnovo. In the last few years we persistently search for possible ways of financing by national and foreign programs in this direction. In the beginning the strategy was oriented to digitalization of the funds with most urgent conversion – these of the local studies periodicals from 1878 till 1944 year. The digitalization of funds will create conditions of laying the basement of full text database of Bulgarian periodical publications. The technology that is offered gives opportunities for including other libraries in the Unified index, which can develop it into a National Unified index of periodical publications. The integrated informational environment that is created is an attractive, comfortable and useful place for work in home or at work for researchers, historians, art experts, bibliographers. The library readers use very actively all informational services of the library internet page and work competently with the on-line indexes provided there, they find the necessary title, which can be demanded later for usage in home or in the library, using electronic means again.

Progmosis:evaluating risky individual behavior during epidemics using mobile network data

The possibility to analyze, quantify and forecast epidemic outbreaks is fundamental when devising effective disease containment strategies. Policy makers are faced with the intricate task of drafting realistically implementable policies that strike a balance between risk management and cost. Two major techniques policy makers have at their disposal are: epidemic modeling and contact tracing. Models are used to forecast the evolution of the epidemic both globally and regionally, while contact tracing is used to reconstruct the chain of people who have been potentially infected, so that they can be tested, isolated and treated immediately. However, both techniques might provide limited information, especially during an already advanced crisis when the need for action is urgent. In this paper we propose an alternative approach that goes beyond epidemic modeling and contact tracing, and leverages behavioral data generated by mobile carrier networks to evaluate contagion risk on a per-user basis. The individual risk represents the loss incurred by not isolating or treating a specific person, both in terms of how likely it is for this person to spread the disease as well as how many secondary infections it will cause. To this aim, we develop a model, named Progmosis, which quantifies this risk based on movement and regional aggregated statistics about infection rates. We develop and release an open-source tool that calculates this risk based on cellular network events. We simulate a realistic epidemic scenarios, based on an Ebola virus outbreak; we find that gradually restricting the mobility of a subset of individuals reduces the number of infected people after 30 days by 24%.

A generalization of correlated equilibrium: A new protocol

A new correlation scheme (leading to a special equilibrium called “soft” correlated equilibrium) is introduced for finite games. After randomization over the outcome space, players have the choice either to follow the recommendation of an umpire blindly or freely choose some other action except the one suggested. This scheme can lead to Pareto-better outcomes than the simple extension introduced by [Moulin, H., Vial, J.-P., 1978. Strategically zero-sum games: the class of games whose completely mixed equilibria cannot be improved upon. International Journal of Game Theory 7, 201–221]. The informational and interpretational aspects of soft correlated equilibria are also discussed in detail. The power of the generalization is illustrated in the prisoners’s dilemma and a congestion game.

The impact of family forms on interpersonal influence between single parent and full families

The relationship between individual thoughts and the social environment has been widely studied in sociology (Weber, 1968), psychology (Lewin, 1951) and social psychology. The influence of reference groups on individual behaviour is often manifested in the decisions made by consumers while members of these reference groups are often the individual’s friends and acquaintances. Their decisions, their values and norms serve as an example for the individual. In this study the influences of reference groups are examined within the context of the family form in Hungary. The paper focuses on the nature of peer influence in single parent households and full families, to analyse the normative and informational dimensions of peer pressure and communication patterns within the family.

Debt Restructuring in the Euro Area: a Necessary but Manageable Evil?

There are two possible responses to the Greek debt crisis: ‘Plan A’, continued official lending, for as long as needed, with possible voluntary private sector involvement, and ‘Plan B’, coercive preemptive or post-default restructuring with significant face value reduction in privately-held debt. Both options have risks, but it is necessary to move to Plan B sooner or later. The impact on Greece could be mitigated by foreign bank ownership and proper liquidity support measures. The direct spillover impact on the rest of the euro area seems small. But there is the risk of contagion, which is a serious concern. There is a cautious case for delaying somewhat Plan B in order to prepare for it.

Formalization of the informal venture capital market - Business angel networks and syndicates

Business angels are natural persons who provide equity financing for young enterprises and gain ownership in them. They are usually anonym investors and they operate in the background of the companies. Their important feature is that over the funding of the enterprises based on their business experiences they can contribute to the success of the companies with their special expertise and with strategic support. As a result of the asymmetric information between the angels and the companies their matching is difficult (Becsky-Nagy – Fazekas 2015), and the fact, that angel investors prefer anonymity makes it harder for entrepreneurs to obtain informal venture capital. The primary aim of the different type of business angel organizations and networks is to alleviate this matching process with intermediation between the two parties. The role of these organizations is increasing in the informal venture capital market compared to the individually operating angels. The recognition of their economic importance led many governments to support them. There were also public initiations that aimed the establishment of these intermediary organizations that led to the institutionalization of business angels. This study via the characterization of business angels focuses on the progress of these informational intermediaries and their ways of development with regards to the international trends and the current situation of Hungarian business angels and angel networks.

The effects of attribute quality information and sources of information on consumers' perceptions and behavior: A model of Pre-purchase Information Utilization in Service Physical Environments

The search-experience-credence framework from economics of information, the human-environment relations models from environmental psychology, and the consumer evaluation process from services marketing provide a conceptual basis for testing the model of "Pre-purchase Information Utilization in Service Physical Environments." The model addresses the effects of informational signs, as a dimension of the service physical environment, on consumers' perceptions (perceived veracity and perceived performance risk), emotions (pleasure) and behavior (willingness to buy). The informational signs provide attribute quality information (search and experience) through non-personal sources of information (simulated word-of-mouth and non-personal advocate sources).^ This dissertation examines: (1) the hypothesized relationships addressed in the model of "Pre-purchase Information Utilization in Service Physical Environments" among informational signs, perceived veracity, perceived performance risk, pleasure, and willingness to buy, and (2) the effects of attribute quality information and sources of information on consumers' perceived veracity and perceived performance risk.^ This research is the first in-depth study about the role and effects of information in service physical environments. Using a 2 x 2 between subjects experimental research procedure, undergraduate students were exposed to the informational signs in a simulated service physical environment. The service physical environments were simulated through color photographic slides.^ The results of the study suggest that: (1) the relationship between informational signs and willingness to buy is mediated by perceived veracity, perceived performance risk and pleasure, (2) experience attribute information shows higher perceived veracity and lower perceived performance risk when compared to search attribute information, and (3) information provided through simulated word-of-mouth shows higher perceived veracity and lower perceived performance risk when compared to information provided through non-personal advocate sources. ^