Framework for investment decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

A study has been conducted to investigate current practices on decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure project investments. It was found that many European countries such as the UK, France, Germany including Australia use scenarios for the investigation of the effects of risk and uncertainty of project investments. Different alternative scenarios are mostly considered during the engineering economic cost-benefit analysis stage. For instance, the World Bank requires an analysis of risks in all project appraisals. Risk in economic evaluation needs to be addressed by calculating sensitivity of the rate of return for a number of events. Risks and uncertainties of project developments arise from various sources of errors including data, model and forecasting errors. It was found that the most influential factors affecting risk and uncertainty resulted from forecasting errors. Data errors and model errors have trivial effects. It was argued by many analysts that scenarios do not forecast what will happen but scenarios indicate only what can happen from given alternatives. It was suggested that the probability distributions of end-products of the project appraisal, such as cost-benefit ratios that take forecasting errors into account, are feasible decision tools for economic evaluation. Political, social, environmental as well as economic and other related risk issues have been addressed and included in decision-making frameworks, such as in a multi-criteria decisionmaking framework. But no suggestion has been made on how to incorporate risk into the investment decision-making process.

Road Asset Management Investment

Australias civil infrastructure assets of roads, bridges, railways, buildings and other structures are worth billions of dollars. To effectively manage road infrastructures, road agencies firstly need to optimise the expenditure for data collection whilst not jeopardising the reliability in using the optimised data to predict maintenance and rehabilitation costs. Secondly, road agencies need to accurately predict the deterioration rates of infrastructures to reflect local conditions so that the budget estimates can be accurately calculated. Finally, the prediction of budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation must be reasonably reliable.

Factors affecting ICT diffusion in Australian construction organisations – the storey from the big end

Our survey findings confirm that 11 factors influence information and communication technology (ICT) diffusion for experienced ICT users. We offer a model that consists of 4 groups of categories: management (M); individual (I); technology (T); and environment (E). Our conclusions reinforce the importance of a coherent ICT diffusion strategy and supportive environment. This requires substantial investment in training and collegial learning support mechanisms. This paper provides an overview of the work undertaken and an analysis of its implications for the construction industry and we provide useful insights that a wide range of construction industry professionals and contractors may find useful.

Sharing knowledge at work : macro, social and relational individual influences on individual behavior

The impact of relations between an organization and its workers and the relations among workers on individual knowledge generation and sharing practices has not, to date, been addressed in an integrated way. This paper discusses the findings of a study analyzing issues at macro, locally-constructed and micro levels in a public sector organization, to identify and integrate the complex sets of mediators. Key factors were found to include (a) the contested nature of the process of knowledge construction, (b) the worker’s experience of the organization’s internal environment, (c) how the organization is understood to value knowledge sharing, (d) relations with colleagues, and (e) the perceived outcomes of knowledge sharing behaviors. Implications for practice are discussed.

Incorporating an economic model in the health impact assessment approach

The current policy decision making in Australia regarding non-health public investments (for example, transport/housing/social welfare programmes) does not quantify health benefits and costs systematically. To address this knowledge gap, this study proposes an economic model for quantifying health impacts of public policies in terms of dollar value. The intention is to enable policy-makers in conducting economic evaluation of health effects of non-health policies and in implementing policies those reduce health inequalities as well as enhance positive health gains of the target population. Health Impact Assessment (HIA) provides an appropriate framework for this study since HIA assesses the beneficial and adverse effects of a programme/policy on public health and on health inequalities through the distribution of those effects. However, HIA usually tries to influence the decision making process using its scientific findings, mostly epidemiological and toxicological evidence. In reality, this evidence can not establish causal links between policy and health impacts since it can not explain how an individual or a community reacts to changing circumstances. The proposed economic model addresses this health-policy linkage using a consumer choice approach that can explain changes in group and individual behaviour in a given economic set up. The economic model suggested in this paper links epidemiological findings with economic analysis to estimate the health costs and benefits of public investment policies. That is, estimating dollar impacts when health status of the exposed population group changes by public programmes – for example, transport initiatives to reduce congestion by building new roads/ highways/ tunnels etc. or by imposing congestion taxes. For policy evaluation purposes, the model is incorporated in the HIA framework by establishing association among identified factors, which drive changes in the behaviour of target population group and in turn, in the health outcomes. The economic variables identified to estimate the health inequality and health costs are levels of income, unemployment, education, age groups, disadvantaged population groups, mortality/morbidity etc. However, though the model validation using case studies and/or available database from Australian non-health policy (say, transport) arena is in the future tasks agenda, it is beyond the scope of this current paper.

Preventing physical activity induced heat illness in school settings

The climatic conditions of tropical and subtropical regions within Australia present, at times, extreme risk of physical activity induced heat illness. Many administrators and teachers in school settings are aware of the general risks of heat related illness. In the absence of reliable information applied at the local level, there is a risk that inappropriate decisions may be made concerning school events that incorporate opportunities to be physically active. Such events may be prematurely cancelled resulting in the loss of necessary time for physical activity. Under high or extremely high risk conditions however, the absence of appropriate modifications or continuation could place the health of students, staff and other parties at risk. School staff and other key stakeholders should understand the mechanisms of escalating risk and be supported to undertake action to reduce the level of risk through appropriate policies, procedures, resources and action plans.

The role of timber plantations in UK Investment portfolios

Although timber plantations and forests are classified as forms of agricultural production, the ownership of this land classification is not limited to rural producers. Timber plantations and forests are now regarded as a long-term investment with both institutional and absentee owners. While the NCREIF property indices have been the benchmarks for the measurement of the performance of the commercial property market in the UK, for many years the IPD timberland index has recently emerged as the U.K. forest and timberland performance indicator. The IPD Forest index incorporates 126 properties over five regions in the U.K. This paper will utilise the IPD Forestry Index to examine the performance of U.K. timber plantations and forests over the period 1981-2004. In particular, issues to be critically assessed include plantation and forest performance analysis, comparative investment analysis, and the role of plantations and forests in investment portfolios, the risk reduction and portfolio benefits of plantations and forests in mixed-asset portfolios and the strategic investment significance of U.K. timberlands.

The role of timber plantations in U.K. investment portfolios

Although timber plantations and forests are classified as forms of agricultural production, the ownership of this land classification is not limited to rural producers. Timber plantations and forests are now regarded as a long-term investment with both institutional and absentee owners. While the NCREIF property indices have been the benchmarks for the measurement of the performance of the commercial property market in the UK, for many years the IPD timberland index has recently emerged as the U.K. forest and timberland performance indicator. The IPD Forest index incorporates 126 properties over five regions in the U.K. This paper will utilise the IPD Forestry Index to examine the performance of U.K. timber plantations and forests over the period 1981-2004. In particular, issues to be critically assessed include plantation and forest performance analysis, comparative investment analysis, and the role of plantations and forests in investment portfolios, the risk reduction and portfolio benefits of plantations and forests in mixed-asset portfolios and the strategic investment significance of U.K. timberlands.

The role of rural land in mixed asset investment portfolios

Rural land has not always been considered as a major long-term investment with both institutional investors and absentee owners in countries such as U.K. and Australia. Although rural land is included in both single asset and mixed asset portfolios in the U.S, it is not at the same levels as either commercial or industrial property. Rural land occupies over 50% of the total area of Australia, and comprises over 115,000 economic farm properties (excludes rural residential, hobby farms and rural lifestyle blocks. However, less than 1.6% of the total economic farm numbers are actually owned by corporate or institutional investors. This low level of corporate involvement in the Australian rural property market has limited both the investment performance research and inclusion of this rural land type in both property and mixed asset investment portfolios. In the U.S. rural land is also the most extensive real estate type based on total area occupied. The United States Department of Agriculture statistics (1998) show that in 1997 there were 2.06 million farms in the U.S., covering 968 million acres, with a total value of $912 billion and generating an annual income of $202 billion. The level of corporate ownership of farms in the U.S. is also higher than the level of corporate farm ownership in Australia. This high level of institutional ownership in rural land in U.S has provided the opportunity for the rural property asset class to be analysed in relation to it’s investment performance and possible role in a mixed asset or mixed property investment portfolio.

Role of timberland in us investment portfolios

Timberland is now regarded as a long-term investment with both institutional investors and absentee owners. This paper utilises the NCREIF Timberland index to examine the performance of US timberland over the period of 1987-1999. US timberland was found to provide significant risk reduction and portfolio diversification benefits in the portfolio resulting from the low risk and low correlation with stocks and bonds. Timberland was also found to make a significant contribution to a portfolio of stocks, bonds and real estate, particularly at low to midrange portfolio risk levels.

Social effects on coworker reliance and individual contributions to intercultural teams

Which social perceptions and structures shape coworker reliance and contributions to team products? When people form an intercultural team, they launch a set of working relationships that may be affected by social perceptions and social structures. Social perceptions include beliefs about interpersonal similarity and also expectations of behavior based on professional and national memberships. Social structures include dyadic relationships and the patterns they form. In this study, graduate students from three cohorts were consistently more likely to rely on others with whom they had a professional relationship, while structural equivalence in the professional network had no effect. In only one of the cohorts, people were more likely to rely on others who were professionally similar to themselves. Expectations regarding professional or national groups had no effect on willingness to rely on members of those groups, but expectations regarding teammates' nations positively influenced individual contributions. Willingness to rely on one's teammates did not significantly influence individual contributions to the team. Number of professional ties to teammates increased individual contributions, and number of external ties decreased contributions. Finally, people whose professional networks included a mixture of brokerage and closure (higher ego network variance) made greater contributions to their teams.

Disclosing donation decisions : the role of organ donor prototypes in an extended theory of planned behaviour

This study explored the role of donor prototype evaluations (perceptions of the typical organ donor) in organ donation communication decisions using an extended theory of planned behaviour (TPB) model. The model incorporated attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioural control, moral norm, self-identity, and donor prototype evaluations to predict intentions to record consent on an organ donor register and discuss the organ donation decision with significant others. Participants completed surveys assessing the extended TPB constructs related to registering (n = 359) and discussing (n = 282). Results supported a role for donor prototype evaluations in predicting discussing intentions only. Both extended TPB structural equation models were a good fit to the data, accounting for 74 and 76% of the variance in registering and discussing intentions, respectively. Participants’ self-reported discussing behaviour (but not registering behaviour given low numbers of behavioural performers) was assessed 4 weeks later, with discussing intention as the only significant predictor of behaviour (Nagelkerke R2 = 0.11). These findings highlight the impact of people's perceptions of a typical donor on their decisions to discuss their organ donation preference, assisting our understanding of the factors influencing individuals' communication processes in efforts to bridge the gap between organ supply and demand.

Understanding how to enhance business creativity

This PhD study examines some of what happens in an individual’s mind regarding creativity during problem solving within an organisational context. It presents innovations related to creative motivation, cognitive style and framing effects that can be applied by managers to enhance individual employee creativity within the organisation and thereby assist organisations to become more innovative. The project delivers an understanding of how to leverage natural changes in creative motivation levels during problem solving. This pattern of response is called Creative Resolve Response (CRR). The project also presents evidence of how framing effects can be used to influence decisions involving creative options in order to enhance the potential for managers get employees to select creative options more often for implementation. The study’s objectives are to understand: • How creative motivation changes during problem solving • How cognitive style moderates these creative motivation changes • How framing effects apply to decisions involving creative options to solve problems • How cognitive style moderate these framing effects The thesis presents the findings from three controlled experiments based around self reports during contrived problem solving and decision making situations. The first experiment suggests that creative motivation varies in a predictable and systematic way during problem solving as a function of the problem solver’s perception of progress. The second experiment suggests that there are specific framing effects related to decisions involving creativity. It seems that simply describing an alternative as innovative may activate perceptual biases that overcome risk based framing effects. The third experiment suggests that cognitive style moderates decisions involving creativity in complex ways. It seems that in some contexts, decision makers will prefer a creative option, regardless of their cognitive style, if this option is both outside the bounds of what is officially allowed and yet ultimately safe. The thesis delivers innovation on three levels: theoretical, methodological and empirical. The highlights of these findings are outlined below: 1. Theoretical innovation with the conceptualisation of Creative Resolve Response based on an extension of Amabile’s research regarding creative motivation. 2. Theoretical innovation linking creative motivation and Kirton’s research on cognitive style. 3. Theoretical innovation linking both risk based and attribute framing effects to cognitive style. 4. Methodological innovation for defining and testing preferences for creative solution implementation in the form of operationalised creativity decision alternatives. 5. Methodological innovation to identify extreme decision options by applying Shafir’s findings regarding attribute framing effects in reverse to create a test. 6. Empirical innovation with statistically significant research findings which indicate creative motivation varies in a systematic way. 7. Empirical innovation with statistically significant research findings which identify innovation descriptor framing effects 8. Empirical innovation with statistically significant research findings which expand understanding of Kirton’s cognitive style descriptors including the importance of safe rule breaking. 9. Empirical innovation with statistically significant research findings which validate how framing effects do apply to decisions involving operationalised creativity. Drawing on previous research related to creative motivation, cognitive style, framing effects and supervisor interactions with employees, this study delivers insights which can assist managers to increase the production and implementation of creativity in organisations. Hopefully this will result in organisations which are more innovative. Such organisations have the potential to provide ongoing economic and social benefits.