Credible redistributive policies and migration across US States

Does worker mobility undermine governments ability to redistribute income? Thispaper analyzes the experience of US states in the recent decades. We build a tractablemodel where both migration decisions and redistribution policies are endogenous. Wecalibrate the model to match skill premium and worker productivity at the state level,as well as the size and skill composition of migration flows. The calibrated modelis able to reproduce the large changes in skill composition as well as key qualitativerelationships of labor flows and redistribution policies observed in the data. Our resultssuggest that regional di¤erences in labor productivity are an important determinantof interstate migration. We use the calibrated model to compare the cross-section ofredistributive policies with and without worker mobility. The main result of the paperis that interstate migration has induced substantial convergence in tax rates acrossUS states, but no race to the bottom. Skill-biased in-migration has reduced the skillpremium and the need for tax-based redistribution in the states that would have hadthe highest tax rates in the absence of mobility.

Inflammatory markers and incident heart failure risk in older adults: the Health ABC (Health, Aging, and Body Composition) study.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association between inflammation and heart failure (HF) risk in older adults. BACKGROUND: Inflammation is associated with HF risk factors and also directly affects myocardial function. METHODS: The association of baseline serum concentrations of interleukin (IL)-6, tumor necrosis factor-alpha, and C-reactive protein (CRP) with incident HF was assessed with Cox models among 2,610 older persons without prevalent HF enrolled in the Health ABC (Health, Aging, and Body Composition) study (age 73.6 +/- 2.9 years; 48.3% men; 59.6% white). RESULTS: During follow-up (median 9.4 years), HF developed in 311 (11.9%) participants. In models controlling for clinical characteristics, ankle-arm index, and incident coronary heart disease, doubling of IL-6, tumor necrosis factor-alpha, and CRP concentrations was associated with 29% (95% confidence interval: 13% to 47%; p < 0.001), 46% (95% confidence interval: 17% to 84%; p = 0.001), and 9% (95% confidence interval: -1% to 24%; p = 0.087) increase in HF risk, respectively. In models including all 3 markers, IL-6, and tumor necrosis factor-alpha, but not CRP, remained significant. These associations were similar across sex and race and persisted in models accounting for death as a competing event. Post-HF ejection fraction was available in 239 (76.8%) cases; inflammatory markers had stronger association with HF with preserved ejection fraction. Repeat IL-6 and CRP determinations at 1-year follow-up did not provide incremental information. Addition of IL-6 to the clinical Health ABC HF model improved model discrimination (C index from 0.717 to 0.734; p = 0.001) and fit (decreased Bayes information criterion by 17.8; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Inflammatory markers are associated with HF risk among older adults and may improve HF risk stratification.

The intra-generational redistributive effects of social security

This paper provides a quantitative evaluation of the intra--cohortredistributive elements of the United States social security system in thecontext of a computable general equilibrium model. I determine how thewell--being of individuals that differ across {\sl gender, race} and {\sl education}is affected by government social security policy. I find that females, whitesand non--college graduates stand less to gain (lose) from reductions(increases) in the size of social security than males, non--whites andcollege graduates, respectively. Differences in mortality risk and laborproductivity translate into differences in the magnitudes of capitalaccumulation and labor supply distortions, that are responsible for theobserved welfare difference between types. Results imply that the currentprogram is lifetime progressive across gender and education, yet lifetimeregressive across race.

Abnormal Lung Function and Risk for Heart Failure in the Elderly: The Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study

Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been associated with increased risk for heart failure (HF). The impact of subclinical abnormal spirometric findings on HF risk among older adults without history of COPD is not well elucidated. Methods: We evaluated 2125 participants (age 73.6±2.9 years; 50.5% men; 62.3% white; 45.6/9.4% past/current smokers; body mass index [BMI] 27.2±4.6 kg/m2) without prevalent COPD or HF who underwent baseline spirometry in the Health ABC Study. Abnormal lung function was defined either as forced vital capacity (FVC) below lower limit of normal (LLN) or forced expiratory volume in 1st sec (FEV1) to FVC ratio below LLN. Results: On follow-up (median, 9.4 years), 68 of 350 (19.4%) participants with abnormal lung function developed HF, as compared to 172 of 1775 (9.7%) participants with normal lung function (hazard ratio [HR], 2.31; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.74 -3.06; P<.001). This increased risk persisted after adjusting for all other independent predictors of HF in the Health ABC Study, BMI, incident coronary events, and several inflammatory markers (HR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.30 -2.54; P<.001), and remained constant over time. Baseline FVC and FEV1 had a linear association with HF risk (Figure). In adjusted models, HF risk increased by 21% (95% CI, 10 -36%) per 10% decrease in FVC and 18% (95% CI, 10 -28%) per 10% decrease in FEV1 (both P<.001); this association persisted among participants with normal lung function at baseline. Findings were consistent across sex, race, and smoking status. Conclusions: Subclinical abnormal spirometric findings are prevalent among older adults and are independently associated with risk for incident HF.

Gerontocracy, retirement, and social security

Why are the old politically successful? We build a simple interest group model in which political pressure is time-intensive, showing that in the political competitive equilibrium each group lobbies for government policies that lower their own value of time but the old do so to a greater extent and as a result are net gainers from the political process. What distinguishes the elderly from other political groups (and what makes them more succesful) is that they have lower labor productivity and/or that we are all likely to become elderly at some point, while we are relatively unlikely to change gender, race, sexual orientation, or even ocupation, The model has a variety of implications for the design of social security programs, which we test using data from the Social Security Administration. For example, the model predicts that social security programs with retirement incentives are larger and that the old are more "single-minded" in their politics, implications which we verify using cross-country government finance data and cross-country political participation surveys. Finally, we show that the forced savings programs intended to "reform" the social security system may increase the amount of intergenerational redistribution. As a model for evaluating policy reforms, ours has the attractive feature that reforms must be time time consistent from a political point of view rather than a public interest point of view.

Voto dual y abstención diferencial. Un estudio sobre el comportamiento electoral en Cataluña

En este trabajo se presentan los resultados de un estudio empírico sobre los motivos del cambio sistemático de resultados electorales que se da en Cataluña según el ámbito de la convocatoria electoral de que se trate. La hipótesis, contrastada positivamente con datos del período 1982-1993, es que la victoria del partido nacionalista de centro derecha en las elecciones autonómicas en un territorio donde vencen siempre los socialistas en las elecciones legislativas se debe a la combinación de los fenómenos del voto dual y del abstencionismo diferencial. La aproximación metodológica de la elección racional permite construir grupos de electores que tienen distintas percepciones del espacio en el que se dirime la competición política, hecho que les induce a un comportamiento electoral diferenciado. Combinando estos resultados con los obtenidos del análisis con datos socioestructurales agregados, se establece un cierto perfil de los votantes duales y de los abstencionistas diferenciales. Finalmente, se realiza una interpretación de los resultados de las elecciones catalanas de 1995 y 1999 a la luz de los resultados de este estudio.This article presents the results of an empirical study about the reasons of the systematic change in the electoral results in Catalonia according to the type of elections. The hypothesis, positively tested with data from the period 1982-1993, is that the victory of the nationalist centre-right party in the autonomous elections in a region where always wins the socialist party in general elections, is due to the combination of the dual vote and differential abstention phenomena. The rational choice methodological approach allow to construct groups of electors with different perceptions about the space in which the political race takes place, fact that induces them different electoral behaviour. In combining these results with those obtained from the analysis with aggregated social and structural data, it is defined a certain the profile of the dual voters and the differential non-voters. Finally, it is given an interpretation of the Catalan election results in 1995 and 1999 using as a clue the results of this study.

History of diabetes and risk of head and neck cancer: a pooled analysis from the international head and neck cancer epidemiology consortium.

BACKGROUND: A history of diabetes is associated with an increased risk of several types of cancers. Whether diabetes is a risk factor for head and neck cancer (HNC) has received little attention. METHODS: We pooled data from 12 case-control studies including 6,448 cases and 13,747 controls, and estimated odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the associations between diabetes and HNC, adjusted for age, education level, sex, race/ethnicity, study center, cigarette smoking, alcohol use and body mass index (BMI). RESULTS: We observed a weak association between diabetes and the incidence of HNC overall (OR, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.95-1.24). However, we observed a modest association among never smokers (OR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.22-2.07), and no association among ever smokers (OR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.83-1.11); likelihood ratio test for interaction p=0.001. CONCLUSIONS: A history of diabetes was weakly associated with HNC overall, but we observed evidence of effect modification by smoking status, with a positive association among those who never smoked cigarettes. Impact: This study suggests that glucose metabolism abnormalities may be a HNC risk factor in subgroups of the population. Prospective studies incorporating biomarkers are needed to improve our understanding of the relationship between diabetes and HNC risk, possibly providing new strategies in the prevention of HNC.

Iowa Department of Public Safety: Iowa State Patrol, 2008 Annual Report

As Iowa's traffic enforcement agency, the Iowa State Patrol is responsible for providing law enforcement services to rural areas of the state as well as traffic enforcement and support for metropolitan areas around the state. Troopers patrol Iowa's highways and conduct traffic enforcement for both unincorporated areas and interstate highways. In addition, our Personnel provide security and police services throughout the state for many special events including, fairs, festivals, and large sporting events such as the Iowa Speedway, University of Iowa and Iowa State football games.

Death and resurrection of the human IRGM gene

Immunity-related GTPases (IRG) play an important role in defense against intracellular pathogens. One member of this gene family in humans, IRGM, has been recently implicated as a risk factor for Crohn's disease. We analyzed the detailed structure of this gene family among primates and showed that most of the IRG gene cluster was deleted early in primate evolution, after the divergence of the anthropoids from prosimians ( about 50 million years ago). Comparative sequence analysis of New World and Old World monkey species shows that the single-copy IRGM gene became pseudogenized as a result of an Alu retrotransposition event in the anthropoid common ancestor that disrupted the open reading frame (ORF). We find that the ORF was reestablished as a part of a polymorphic stop codon in the common ancestor of humans and great apes. Expression analysis suggests that this change occurred in conjunction with the insertion of an endogenous retrovirus, which altered the transcription initiation, splicing, and expression profile of IRGM. These data argue that the gene became pseudogenized and was then resurrected through a series of complex structural events and suggest remarkable functional plasticity where alleles experience diverse evolutionary pressures over time. Such dynamism in structure and evolution may be critical for a gene family locked in an arms race with an ever-changing repertoire of intracellular parasites.

State of Iowa Department of Administrative Services Human Resource Enterprise: Review of State Hiring Practices, April 30, 2007

The State of Iowa and the Hiring Practices Working Group commissioned this review of the State’s hiring practices in response to recent concerns about these practices involving racial discrimination claims against the Departments of Human Services, Transportation, and Iowa Workforce Development. The State of Iowa should be commended for undertaking this review. The State has a longstanding Affirmative Action Program and commitment to diversity – they instituted their Affirmative Action Program in 1973, and continue their commitment to its success by making the changes necessary to ensure the program is viable and sustainable. Iowa Department of Administrative Services In July 2003, the State created the Iowa Department of Administrative Services (DAS) as a way to manage and coordinate the major resources of state government. DAS provides human resource services through an entrepreneurial management model. Entrepreneurial management is a customer-focused approach to delivering services. The customer departments have input about what services and products they want from DAS and in turn DAS is funded by the customer departments through purchases of DAS services and products. DAS looks to offer new and additional services (for example recruitment support and coordination) to various customers on a fee-for-service basis. A customer council is charged with approving the DAS business plan, establishing the rate for services, and reviewing service delivery and complaints. Under this entrepreneurial model, human resource services are provided by DAS-HRE (Human Resources Enterprise) central staff, 12 DAS-HRE Personnel Officers located at the customer departments, and customer agency staff. The majority of the recruitment and hiring functions are done by the customer (hiring) departments and their staff. Applications for employment are submitted using the BrassRing system with applicants being qualified by DAS-HRE employees. Since the creation of Human Resources Enterprise, DAS-HRE has strived to provide human resource tools to the departments. The Screening Manual and the Supervisor’s Manual are just two examples of the resources created for the hiring departments. They also provide Supervisor Training for newly appointed supervisors. Larger departments have dedicated staff assigned to human resource activities. The staff at the departmental level may or may not have a human resources background. Iowa Population and Workforce The 2000 U.S. Census indicated that Iowa’s population was 2,926,324. According to this census, 92.6 percent of Iowa’s population identified their race as white (alone). The nonwhite alone or minority population (including Black or African American, Asian, Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Hispanic or Latino, American Indian or Alaska Native, two or more races, or some other race) was 7.4 percent.

Iowa Commission on the Status of African Americans Annual Report, Fiscal Year 2006

A Public Intellectual recently suggested that I read the book Life Out Of Context by the very productive writer Walter Mosley. In this book, Mosley began to summarize a speech that was given by Harry Belafonte. Belafonte made a comparison between a particular Olympic relay race and the Civil Rights Movement. In the race, an experienced runner stumbled a little while passing the baton, and the race was lost. For Belafonte, this momentary slip was a metaphor for the failure of the Civil Rights Movement to “pass the baton” to the younger generation as “it moved past its original phase and into the latter part of the century.” Regardless of your views of the strengths and weaknesses of the Civil Rights Movement, I think all of us would agree that the current issues facing Black Iowa today--e.g., the need for economic development, increased educational achievement and more political involvement in our communities--demand our immediate attention and action. This urgency requires that we cross generational, class, and territorial boundaries within the state to collaborate among ourselves and with others to deal constructively with these issues. We cannot afford to have another “momentary slip.” Serving as the Administrator for ICSAA allows me to serve Black Iowa in a significant way, and Kimberly Cheeks and I in this Division look forward to the work ahead over the next several months and years. Working closely with Walter Reed, Director of the Department of Human Rights, along with so many others across this state, we are keenly aware that we are provided with a great opportunity to positively impact the quality of life for African-Americans in Iowa.

Do Agglomeration Economies Reduce the Sensitivity of Firm Location to Tax Differentials?

Recent theoretical work in economic geography has shown that agglomeration forces can mitigate 'race-to-the-bottom' tax competition, by partly or fully offsetting firms' sensitivity to tax differentials. We test this proposition using data on firm births across Swiss municipalities. We find that corporate taxes deter firm births less in more spatially concentrated sectors. Firms in sectors with an agglomeration intensity in the top quintile are less than half as responsive to differences in corporate tax burdens as firms in sectors with an agglomeration intensity in the bottom quintile. Hence, agglomeration economies do appear to attenuate the impact of tax differentials on firms' location choices.

Software per al cronometratge de temps mitjançant sensors digitals

L’Slot, conegut per tots amb el nom d’Scalextric, s’ha implantat com a una forma d’oci habitual, la pràctica del qual no queda restringida als més petits, sinó que cada vegada crea més afició entre els grans. El fet que l’Slot s’hagi extès entre els adults n’ha revolucionat la pràctica. L’entrada al mercat de l’Slot de gent adulta, i amb poder adquisitiu molt superior als adolescents, ha provocat que les marques especialitzades vagin evolucionant els seus productes cada vegada més. Totes les marques s’han vist obligades a desenvolupar vehicles més competitius i alhora treure al mercat accessoris que augmentin la realitat del joc. Una de les necessitats que s’ha creat és la de competir entre jugadors. Aquesta competició tan pot ser en forma de carrera entre diversos participants, com de forma individual, cronometrant el temps de cada participant en un circuit. L’objectiu principal del projecte és crear un sistema capaç de realitzar cronometratges en temps real mitjançant sensors digitals ja existents en el mercat de l’Slot i poder controlar i visualitzar la informació des d’un PC. Per a poder captar els senyals dels sensors s’ha utilitzat un sistema microcontrolat, que garanteix gran velocitat d’adquisició, processament de dades i transmissió. La comunicació del Microcontrolador amb el PC s’ha realizat mitjançant el bus USB. El PC serà el controlador del sistema i donarà les ordres al Microcontrolador, podent així tenir control total sobre el funcionament del programa. També serà el PC el que tractarà els crocometratges enregistrats i els mostrarà per pantalla

Estudi tècnic-econòmic per a la instal·lació d'una granja d'ànecs per a producció de foie-gras situada en el terme municipal de Fontanals de Cerdanya

Inversors però, principalment professionals de l'àmbit agrari, per tal de buscar una diversificació de l'activitat agrícola i ramadera que desenvolupen a les seves finques, sobretot joves emprenedors, poden estar interessats en produccions alternatives com la producció d'ànecs per a foie-gras, per tal de complementar la seva renda agrària. Actualment cal augmentar la competitivitat de les finques agrícoles per tal que aquestes siguin econòmicament viables. L’objectiu de l'estudi és determinar la viabilitat econòmica d’una explotació ramadera d’ànecs per a la producció de foie-gras, en el terme municipal de Fontanals de Cerdanya, analitzant les diverses alternatives en quant a dimensionament i disseny de les instal·lacions, segons el cicle productiu de l’animal. L'alternativa escollida per realitzar l'estudi es la de semi-integració (cria, engreix i embocat), de règim semi-intensiu (durant l'etapa de l'engreix), amb animals mascles de la raça híbrida Mulard. Les instal·lacions tindran una capacitat de 6.500 animals, amb lots de 250 caps. Aquest dimensionament permet, durant la fase d'embocat, en la qual es requereix més dedicació, que la demanda de mà d'obra pugui ser satisfeta per un únic treballador. La principal conclusió que es pot extreure de l'estudi és que la inversió projectada és massa elevada i que aquesta econòmicament no és viable o rendible, ja que la despesa és massa elevada. Es mouen uns fluxos de caixa molt elevats i el marge comercial és molt reduït. Únicament si l'objectiu del promotor és obtenir una remuneració per la seva feina, sempre i quan és produeixi un augment del preu actual de la carn i una disminució del preu del pinso, es podria recomanar que es portés a terme la implantació de l'explotació, intentant, però, reduir la despesa d'execució de construccions i instal·lacions.

Periodismo y dispositivos móviles de lecto-escritura. Introducción al diseño de contenidos para tabletas

El lanzamiento de las tabletas, especialmente la iPad de Apple en 2010, abrió la competencia entre las compañías de comunicación en el sentido de hacer disponible el contenido para este entorno de medios emergentes. La fuga de lectores de periódicos impresos y la consecuente caída en las ganancias por publicidad, forzó a las compañías periodísticas a que buscaran los otros medios de mantener sus negocios. La diversificación de productos y la penetración de los periódicos en dispositivos móviles constituyen un escenario prometedor para el medio. El vertiginoso volumen de ventas de las tabletas indica que en 2012 serán comercializadas más de 140 millones de unidades en el mundo. El diseño de los periódicos en tabletas está íntimamente ligado al diseño de la versión impresa por la fuerza de su metáfora. El desafío es encontrar un diseño de páginas propio, aprovechando el potencial multimedia sin interferir negativamente en la legibilidad y en el carácter intrínseco de informar.