Temporal aggregation of migration counts can improve accuracy and precision of trends

Temporal replicate counts are often aggregated to improve model fit by reducing zero-inflation and count variability, and in the case of migration counts collected hourly throughout a migration, allows one to ignore nonindependence. However, aggregation can represent a loss of potentially useful information on the hourly or seasonal distribution of counts, which might impact our ability to estimate reliable trends. We simulated 20-year hourly raptor migration count datasets with known rate of change to test the effect of aggregating hourly counts to daily or annual totals on our ability to recover known trend. We simulated data for three types of species, to test whether results varied with species abundance or migration strategy: a commonly detected species, e.g., Northern Harrier, Circus cyaneus; a rarely detected species, e.g., Peregrine Falcon, Falco peregrinus; and a species typically counted in large aggregations with overdispersed counts, e.g., Broad-winged Hawk, Buteo platypterus. We compared accuracy and precision of estimated trends across species and count types (hourly/daily/annual) using hierarchical models that assumed a Poisson, negative binomial (NB) or zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) count distribution. We found little benefit of modeling zero-inflation or of modeling the hourly distribution of migration counts. For the rare species, trends analyzed using daily totals and an NB or ZINB data distribution resulted in a higher probability of detecting an accurate and precise trend. In contrast, trends of the common and overdispersed species benefited from aggregation to annual totals, and for the overdispersed species in particular, trends estimating using annual totals were more precise, and resulted in lower probabilities of estimating a trend (1) in the wrong direction, or (2) with credible intervals that excluded the true trend, as compared with hourly and daily counts.

Towards a Better Modelling and Assessment of Construction Risk: Insights from a Literature Review

This paper reviews the literature of construction risk modelling and assessment. It also reviews the real practice of risk assessment. The review resulted in significant results, summarised as follows. There has been a major shift in risk perception from an estimation variance into a project attribute. Although the Probability–Impact risk model is prevailing, substantial efforts are being put to improving it reflecting the increasing complexity of construction projects. The literature lacks a comprehensive assessment approach capable of capturing risk impact on different project objectives. Obtaining a realistic project risk level demands an effective mechanism for aggregating individual risk assessments. The various assessment tools suffer from low take-up; professionals typically rely on their experience. It is concluded that a simple analytical tool that uses risk cost as a common scale and utilises professional experience could be a viable option to facilitate closing the gap between theory and practice of risk assessment.

Changes in biodiversity and trade-offs among ecosystem services, stakeholders, and components of well-being: the contribution of the International Long-Term Ecological Research network (ILTER) to Programme on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS)

The International Long-Term Ecological Research (ILTER) network comprises > 600 scientific groups conducting site-based research within 40 countries. Its mission includes improving the understanding of global ecosystems and informs solutions to current and future environmental problems at the global scales. The ILTER network covers a wide range of social-ecological conditions and is aligned with the Programme on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS) goals and approach. Our aim is to examine and develop the conceptual basis for proposed collaboration between ILTER and PECS. We describe how a coordinated effort of several contrasting LTER site-based research groups contributes to the understanding of how policies and technologies drive either toward or away from the sustainable delivery of ecosystem services. This effort is based on three tenets: transdisciplinary research; cross-scale interactions and subsequent dynamics; and an ecological stewardship orientation. The overarching goal is to design management practices taking into account trade-offs between using and conserving ecosystems toward more sustainable solutions. To that end, we propose a conceptual approach linking ecosystem integrity, ecosystem services, and stakeholder well-being, and as a way to analyze trade-offs among ecosystem services inherent in diverse management options. We also outline our methodological approach that includes: (i) monitoring and synthesis activities following spatial and temporal trends and changes on each site and by documenting cross-scale interactions; (ii) developing analytical tools for integration; (iii) promoting trans-site comparison; and (iv) developing conceptual tools to design adequate policies and management interventions to deal with trade-offs. Finally, we highlight the heterogeneity in the social-ecological setting encountered in a subset of 15 ILTER sites. These study cases are diverse enough to provide a broad cross-section of contrasting ecosystems with different policy and management drivers of ecosystem conversion; distinct trends of biodiversity change; different stakeholders’ preferences for ecosystem services; and diverse components of well-being issues.

The impact of mindfulness on the wellbeing and performance of educators: A systematic review of the empirical literature

Given the potentially demanding nature of teaching, efforts are underway to develop practices that can improve the wellbeing of educators, including interventions based on mindfulness meditation. We performed systematic review of empirical studies featuring analyses of mindfulness in teaching contexts. Databases were reviewed from the start of records to January 2016. Eligibility criteria included empirical analyses of mindfulness and wellbeing outcomes acquired in relation to practice. A total of 19 papers met the eligibility criteria and were included in the systematic review, consisting of a total 1,981 participants. Studies were principally examined for outcomes such as burnout, anxiety, depression and stress, as well as more positive wellbeing measures (e.g., life satisfaction). The systematic review revealed that mindfulness was generally associated with positive outcomes in relation to most measures. However, the quality of the studies was inconsistent, and so further research is needed, particularly involving high-quality randomised control trials.

Ecology and physical condition of red deer in the Iberian Peninsula: implications for management

The red deer (Cervus elaphus) is currently one of the most widespread and abundant wild ungulates in the Iberian Peninsula and is extremely important both ecologically, as a key species for the functioning of the ecosystems, and economically, as a major game species. In Iberia, red deer populations are subjected to different management systems that may affect the physical condition of the individuals, with further consequences for population dynamics. Studies investigating the effects of management practices and environmental conditions on the performance of red deer are still rare regarding Mediterranean ecosystems. Much of the knowledge concerning the ecology of red deer and the impact of management on its physical condition is based on studies conducted in northern and central regions of Europe, where climatological features and management practices differ from those observed in the Mediterranean areas of Iberia. Studies on a biogeographical scale can provide important insights into the relationships between species and a particular environment and contribute to the development of more targeted and appropriate management practices. The optimisation of sampling procedures and the fine-tuning of pre-existing analytical techniques are also fundamental to a more cost-effective monitoring and, therefore, are of enormous value to wildlife managers. In this context, the main aims of this thesis were: 1) to optimise the procedures used to assess the physical condition of red deer; and 2) to identify relevant management and environmental factors affecting the nutritional condition and stress physiology of red deer in the Mediterranean ecosystems of Iberia, as well as any potential interactions between those factors. Two studies with a methodological focus, presented in the first part of the thesis, demonstrated that the physical condition of red deer can be evaluated more simply, using more cost- and time-effective procedures than those traditionally used: i) it was shown that only one kidney and its associated fat is enough to assess nutritional condition in red deer; and ii) the feasibility of using near infrared spectroscopy to predict the concentrations of stress hormone metabolites was demonstrated using faeces of red deer for the first time. Subsequently, two large-scale observational studies, conducted in representative red deer populations found in Mediterranean Iberia, highlighted the importance of considering seasonal environmental variations and variables related to hunting management practices to better understand the nutritional and physiological ecology of red deer. High population densities had adverse effects on the nutritional condition of the deer and were associated with increased stress levels in natural populations without supplementary feeding. Massive hunting events involving the use of hounds were also identified as a potential source of chronic stress in red deer. The research presented in this thesis has clear implications regarding the management and monitoring of red deer populations in Mediterranean environments and is intended to help wildlife managers to implement more effective monitoring programmes and sustainable management practices.

Australian professional standards for teachers and the ethical dimension of policies

Indoor environment and the impact on the health of pre-exisiting asthmatics at work: the development of a risk management framework

This thesis examines the spatial and temporal variation in nitrogen dioxide (NO2) levels in Guernsey and the impacts on pre-existing asthmatics. Whilst air quality in Guernsey is generally good, the levels of NO2 exceed UK standards in several locations. The evidence indicates that people suffering from asthma have exacerbation of their symptoms if exposed to elevated levels of air pollutants including NO2, although this research has never been carried out in Guernsey before. In addition, exposure assessment of individuals is rarely carried out and research in this area is limited due to the complexity of undertaking such a study, which will include a combination of exposures in the home, the workplace and ambient exposures, which vary depending on the individual daily experience. For the first time in Guernsey, this research has examined NO2 levels in correlation with asthma patient admissions to hospital, assessment of NO2 exposures in typical homes and typical workplaces in Guernsey. The data showed a temporal correlation between NO2 levels and the number of hospital admissions and the trend from 2008-2012 was upwards. Statistical analysis of the data did not show a significant linear correlation due to the small size of the data sets. Exposure assessment of individuals showed a spatial variation in exposures in Guernsey and assessment in indoor environments showed that real-time analysis of NO2 levels needs to be undertaken if indoor micro environments for NO2 are the be assessed adequately. There was temporal and spatial variation in NO2 concentrations measured using diffusion tubes, which provide a monthly mean value, and analysers measuring NO2 concentrations in real time. The research shows that building layout and design are important factors for good air flow and ventilation and the dispersion of NO2 indoors. Environmental Health Officers have statutory responsibilities for ambient air quality, hygiene of buildings and workplace environments and this role needs to be co-ordinated with healthcare professionals to improve health outcomes for asthmatics. The outcome of the thesis was the development of a risk management framework for pre-existing asthmatics at work for use by regulators of workplaces and an information leaflet to assist in improving health outcomes for asthmatics in Guernsey.

The development of a photoacoustic Instrument for the monitoring of oil and other hydrocarbons in water.

The present methods for the detection of oil in discharge water are based either on chemical analysis of intermittent samples or bypass pipelines with instrumentation to detect either dissolved or dispersed hydrocarbons by a variety of optical techniques including absorption, scattering and fluorescence. However, test have shown that no single instruments entirely meets either present needs or satisfies the requirements of the future more stringent legislation which may limit total hydrocarbon content to 30 ppm or even less. Hence, in this paper, a detector is devised which can detect both dissolved and dispersed oil products, has a high immunity to scattering and can operate in-line and harsh environments with a detection sensitivity of a few ppm throughout a wide range of operations.

The impact and compensation of offshore wind farm development: Analysing the institutional discourse from a french case study

In France, the public acceptability of marine renewable energies and their impacts on ecosystem services (ES) involves questions about compensation for stakeholders, who may perceive some of their activities and interests to be modified. This paper seeks to understand how impacts on ES are perceived by institutional stakeholders and what is expected in terms of compensation. It also seeks to identify the communities of practice affected. We focus our study on the planned offshore wind farm in the bay of Saint-Brieuc. Our results show that institutional discourse is heterogeneous, depending on sensitivities, interests, and who or what the stakeholders surveyed represent or defend. Stakeholders' discourse can be interpreted on various gradients of perception. Six distinct communities of practice have been identified, based on the impacts perceived by institutional stakeholders. Lastly, we show that the community of practice seems to be a proper level at which to study perceptions and assess the no-net-loss goal.

Position paper on passive sampling techniques for the monitoring of contaminants in the aquatic environment - Achievements to date and perspectives

This paper, based on the outcome of discussions at a NORMAN Network-supported workshop in Lyon (France) in November 2014 aims to provide a common position of passive sampling community experts regarding concrete actions required to foster the use of passive sampling techniques in support of contaminant risk assessment and management and for routine monitoring of contaminants in aquatic systems. The brief roadmap presented here focusses on the identification of robust passive sampling methodology, technology that requires further development or that has yet to be developed, our current knowledge of the evaluation of uncertainties when calculating a freely dissolved concentration, the relationship between data from PS and that obtained through biomonitoring. A tiered approach to identifying areas of potential environmental quality standard (EQS) exceedances is also shown. Finally, we propose a list of recommended actions to improve the acceptance of passive sampling by policy-makers. These include the drafting of guidelines, quality assurance and control procedures, developing demonstration projects where biomonitoring and passive sampling are undertaken alongside, organising proficiency testing schemes and interlaboratory comparison and, finally, establishing passive sampler-based assessment criteria in relation to existing EQS.

Fishing effort and the impact of fishing gears and fishing methods on fishes and fisheries of Kyoga basin lakes

Lake Kyoga at the time of Worthington Survey (Worthington, 1929) was fished by only natives around it. The fishing gears consisted of locally made basket traps, hooks and seine nets made out of papyrus. Fishing was mainly during the dry season as in wet season, the fishers would revert to crop growing. During 1937 to 1950s Oreochromis variabilis, oreochromis esculentus (Ngege) and Protopterus aethiopicus (Mamba) were the most important commercial fish species and contributed over 95% to the total landings until early 1950s when their proportions started to change as a result of changes in fishing techniques. The tilapiines' were then being caught using mainly basket traps and P.aethiopicus was caught in hooks prior to the mid 1950s.

Rapid detection and quantification of the marine toxic algae, Alexandrium minutum, using a super-paramagnetic immunochromatographic strip test

The dinoflagellates of Alexandrium genus are known to be producers of paralytic shellfish toxins that regularly impact the shellfish aquaculture industry and fisheries. Accurate detection of Alexandrium including A. minutum is crucial for environmental monitoring and sanitary issues. In this study, we firstly developed a quantitative lateral flow immunoassay (LFIA) using super-paramagnetic nanobeads for A. minutum whole cells. This dipstick assay relies on two distinct monoclonal antibodies used in a sandwich format and directed against surface antigens of this organism. No sample preparation is required. Either frozen or live cells can be detected and quantified. The specificity and sensitivity are assessed by using phytoplankton culture and field samples spiked with a known amount of cultured A. minutum cells. This LFIA is shown to be highly specific for A. minutum and able to detect reproducibly 105 cells/L within 30 min. The test is applied to environmental samples already characterized by light microscopy counting. No significant difference is observed between the cell densities obtained by these two methods. This handy super-paramagnetic lateral flow immnunoassay biosensor can greatly assist water quality monitoring programs as well as ecological research.

Conservation value, biodiversity value and methods of assessment in regenerating and human disturbed tropical forest

Although the value of primary forests for biodiversity conservation is well known, the potential biodiversity and conservation value of regenerating forests remains controversial. Many factors likely contribute to this, including: 1. the variable ages of regenerating forests being studied (often dominated by relatively young regenerating forests); 2. the potential for confounding on-going human disturbance (such as logging and hunting); 3. the relatively low number of multi-taxa studies; 4. the lack of studies that directly compare different historic disturbances within the same location; 5. contrasting patterns from different survey methodologies and the paucity of knowledge on the impacts across different vertical levels of rainforest biodiversity (often due to a lack of suitable methodologies available to assess them). We also know relatively little as to how biodiversity is affected by major current impacts, such as unmarked rainforest roads, which contribute to this degradation of habitat and fragmentation. This thesis explores the potential biodiversity value of regenerating rainforests under the best of scenarios and seeks to understand more about the impact of current human disturbance to biodiversity; data comes from case studies from the Manu and Sumaco Biosphere Reserves in the Western Amazon. Specifically, I compare overall biodiversity and conservation value of a best case regenerating rainforest site with a selection of well-studied primary forest sites and with predicted species lists for the region; including a focus on species of key conservation concern. I then investigate the biodiversity of the same study site in reference to different types of historic anthropogenic disturbance. Following this I investigate the impacts to biodiversity from an unmarked rainforest road. In order to understand more about the differential effects of habitat disturbance on arboreal diversity I directly assess how patterns of butterfly biodiversity vary between three vertical strata. Although assessments within the canopy have been made for birds, invertebrates and bats, very few studies have successfully targeted arboreal mammals. I therefore investigate the potential of camera traps for inventorying arboreal mammal species in comparison with traditional methodologies. Finally, in order to investigate the possibility that different survey methodologies might identify different biodiversity patterns in habitat disturbance assessments, I investigate whether two different but commonly used survey methodologies used to assess amphibians, indicate the same or different responses of amphibian biodiversity to historic habitat change by people. The regenerating rainforest study site contained high levels of species richness; both in terms of alpha diversity found in nearby primary forest areas (87% ±3.5) and in terms of predicted primary forest diversity from the region (83% ±6.7). This included 89% (39 out of 44) of the species of high conservation concern predicted for the Manu region. Faunal species richness in once completely cleared regenerating forest was on average 13% (±9.8) lower than historically selectively logged forest. The presence of the small unmarked road significantly altered levels of faunal biodiversity for three taxa, up to and potentially beyond 350m into the forest interior. Most notably, the impact on biodiversity extended to at least 32% of the whole reserve area. The assessment of butterflies across strata showed that different vertical zones within the same rainforest responded differently in areas with different historic human disturbance. A comparison between forest regenerating after selective logging and forest regenerating after complete clearance, showed that there was a 17% greater reduction in canopy species richness in the historically cleared forest compared with the terrestrial community. Comparing arboreal camera traps with traditional ground-based techniques suggests that camera traps are an effective tool for inventorying secretive arboreal rainforest mammal communities and detect a higher number of cryptic species. Finally, the two survey methodologies used to assess amphibian communities identified contrasting biodiversity patterns in a human modified rainforest; one indicated biodiversity differences between forests with different human disturbance histories, whereas the other suggested no differences between forest disturbance types. Overall, in this thesis I find that the conservation and biodiversity value of regenerating and human disturbed tropical forest can potentially contribute to rainforest biodiversity conservation, particularly in the best of circumstances. I also highlight the importance of utilising appropriate study methodologies that to investigate these three-dimensional habitats, and contribute to the development of methodologies to do so. However, care should be taken when using different survey methodologies, which can provide contrasting biodiversity patterns in response to human disturbance.

The impact of cooking methods on the nutritional quality and safety of chicken breaded nuggets

The impact of cooking methods (industrial pre-frying, deep-fat frying and baking) on the nutritional quality and safety of chicken breaded nugget samples from supermarket and commercial brands was evaluated. The changes in the quality characteristics (nutritional composition, fatty acids profile, cholesterol and salt) of the fried food and frying oil, after ten consecutive frying operations, were evaluated. The total fat content of nuggets varied between 10.9 and 22.7 g per 100 g of edible portion and the salt content ranged from 0.873 to 1.63 g per 100 g. Taking into account one portion of nuggets, the daily intake of salt can reach 49%, which can have a significant impact on the health of those who regularly consume this type of food, especially considering the prevalence of hypertension around the world. The analysed chicken breaded nuggets are rich in unsaturated fatty acids, which have been related with potential health benefits, namely regarding cardiovascular diseases. The cholesterol content of baked samples was two times higher when compared with the fried ones. The trans fatty acids and polar compounds contents of the frying oil used for frying significantly increased, but the values were still away from the maximum recommended by legal entities for its rejection. From a nutritional point of view, it is possible to conclude that the applied cooking methods can significantly influence the nutritional quality and safety of the analysed chicken breaded nuggets. This study will contribute to important knowledge on how the applied cooking methods can change the nutritional quality and safety of foods, namely of chicken nuggets, and can be very useful for dietary recommendations and nutritional assessment.