New Keynesian Model Features that Can Reproduce Lead, Lag and Persistence Patterns

This paper uses a new method for describing dynamic comovement and persistence in economic time series which builds on the contemporaneous forecast error method developed in den Haan (2000). This data description method is then used to address issues in New Keynesian model performance in two ways. First, well known data patterns, such as output and inflation leads and lags and inflation persistence, are decomposed into forecast horizon components to give a more complete description of the data patterns. These results show that the well known lead and lag patterns between output and inflation arise mostly in the medium term forecasts horizons. Second, the data summary method is used to investigate a rich New Keynesian model with many modeling features to see which of these features can reproduce lead, lag and persistence patterns seen in the data. Many studies have suggested that a backward looking component in the Phillips curve is needed to match the data, but our simulations show this is not necessary. We show that a simple general equilibrium model with persistent IS curve shocks and persistent supply shocks can reproduce the lead, lag and persistence patterns seen in the data.

Employment comovements at the sectoral level over the business cycle

This paper extends the technique suggested by den Haan (2000) to investigate contemporaneous as well as lead and lag correlations among economic data for a range of forecast horizons. The technique provides a richer picture of the economic dynamics generating the data and allows one to investigate which variables lead or lag others and whether the lead or lag pattern is short term or long term in nature. The technique is applied to monthly sectoral level employment data for the U.S. and shows that among the ten industrial sectors followed by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, six tend to lead the other four. These six have high correlations indicating that the structural shocks generating the data movements are mostly in common. Among the four lagging industries, some lag by longer intervals than others and some have low correlations with the leading industries indicating that these industries are partially influenced by structural shocks beyond those generating the six leading industries.

Optimal fiscal policy in a multisector model with minimum expenditure requirements

This paper investigates optimal fiscal policy in a static multisector model. A Ramsey type planner chooses tax rates on each good type as well as spending levels on each good type subject to an exogenous total expenditure constraint and requirements that some minimum amount of spending be undertaken in each sector. It is shown that optimal policy does not equally spend in each sector but instead results in one of the minimum expenditure constraints binding.

Second-best tax policy in a growing economy with externalities

This paper investigates the exploitation of environmental resources in a growing economy within a second-best scal policy framework. Agents derive utility from two types of consumption goods one which relies on an environmental input and one which does not as well as from leisure and from environmental amenity values. Property rights for the environmental resource are potentially incomplete. We connect second best policy to essential components of utility by considering the elasticity of substitution among each of the four utility arguments. The results illustrate potentially important relationships between environmental amentity values and leisure. When amenity values are complementary with leisure, for instance when environmental amenities are used for recreation, taxes on extractive goods generally increase over time. On the other hand, optimal taxes on extractive goods generally decrease over time when leisure and environmental amenity values are substitutes. Unders some parameterizations, complex dynamics leading to nonmonotonic time paths for the state variables can emerge.

PICES-GLOBEC International Program on Climate Change and Carrying Capacity: Report of 2001 BASS/MODEL, MONITOR and REX Workshops, and the 2002 MODEL/REX Workshop

Table of Contents [pdf, 0.22 Mb] Executive Summary [pdf, 0.31 Mb] Report of the 2001 BASS/MODEL Workshop [pdf, 0.65 Mb] To review ecosystem models for the subarctic gyres Report of the 2001 MONITOR Workshop [pdf, 0.7 Mb] To review ecosystem models for the subarctic gyres Workshop presentations: Sonia D. Batten PICES Continuous Plankton Recorder pilot project Phillip R. Mundy GEM (Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Trustee Council`s "Gulf Ecosystem Monitoring" initiative) and U.S. GOOS plans in the North Pacific Ron McLaren and Brian O`Donnell A proposal for a North Pacific Action group of the international Data Buoy Cooperation Panel Gilberto Gaxiola-Castrol and Sila Najera-Martinez The Mexican oceanographic North Pacific program: IMECOCAL Sydney Levitus Building global ocean profile and plankton databases for scientific research Report of the 2001 REX Workshop [pdf, 1.73 Mb] On temporal variations in size-at-age for fish species in coastal areas around the Pacific Rim Workshop presentations: Brian J. Pyper, Randall M. Peterman, Michael F. Lapointe and Carl J. Walters [pdf, 0.33 Mb] Spatial patterns of covariation in size-at-age of British Columbia and Alaska sockeye salmon stocks and effects of abundance and ocean temperature R. Bruce MacFarlane, Steven Ralston, Chantell Royer and Elizabeth C. Norton [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Influences of the 1997-1998 El Niño and 1999 La Niña on juvenile Chinook salmon in the Gulf of the Farallones Olga S. Temnykh and Sergey L. Marchenko [pdf, 0.5 Mb] Variability of the pink salmon sizes in relation with abundance of Okhotsk Sea stocks Ludmila A. Chernoivanova, Alexander N. Vdoven and D.V. Antonenko [pdf, 0.3 Mb] The characteristic growth rate of herring in Peter the Great Bay (Japan/East Sea) Nikolay I. Naumenko [pdf, 0.5 Mb] Temporal variations in size-at-age of the western Bering Sea herring Evelyn D. Brown [pdf, 0.45 Mb] Effects of climate on Pacific herring, Clupea pallasii, in the northern Gulf of Alaska and Prince William Sound, Alaska Jake Schweigert, Fritz Funk, Ken Oda and Tom Moore [pdf, 0.6 Mb] Herring size-at-age variation in the North Pacific Ron W. Tanasichuk [pdf, 0.3 Mb] Implications of variation in euphausiid productivity for the growth, production and resilience of Pacific herring (Clupea pallasi) from the southwest coast of Vancouver Island Chikako Watanabe, Ahihiko Yatsu and Yoshiro Watanabe [pdf, 0.3 Mb] Changes in growth with fluctuation of chub mackerel abundance in the Pacific waters off central Japan from 1970 to 1997 Yoshiro Watanabe, Yoshiaki Hiyama, Chikako Watanabe and Shiro Takayana [pdf, 0.35 Mb] Inter-decadal fluctuations in length-at-age of Hokkaido-Sakhalin herring and Japanese sardine in the Sea of Japan Pavel A. Balykin and Alexander V. Buslov [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Long-term variability in length of walley pollock in the western Bering Sea and east Kamchtka Alexander A. Bonk [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Effect of population abundance increase on herring distribution in the western Bering Sea Sergey N. Tarasyuk [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Survival of yellowfin sole (Limanda aspera Pallas) in the northern part of the Tatar Strait (Sea of Japan) during the second half of the 20th century Report of the 2002 MODEL/REX Workshop [pdf, 1.2 Mb] To develop a marine ecosystem model of the North Pacific Ocean including pelagic fishes Summary and Overview [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Workshop presentations: Bernard A. Megrey, Kenny Rose, Francisco E. Werner, Robert A. Klumb and Douglas E. Hay [pdf, 0.47 Mb] A generalized fish bioenergetics/biomass model with an application to Pacific herring Robert A. Klumb [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Review of Clupeid biology with emphasis on energetics Douglas E. Hay [pdf, 0.47 Mb] Reflections of factors affecting size-at-age and strong year classes of herring in the North Pacific Shin-ichi Ito, Yutaka Kurita, Yoshioki Oozeki, Satoshi Suyama, Hiroya Sugisaki and Yongjin Tian [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Review for Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) study under the VENFISH project lexander V. Leonov and Gennady A. Kantakov [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Formalization of interactions between chemical and biological compartments in the mathematical model describing the transformation of nitrogen, phosphorus, silicon and carbon compounds Herring group report and model results [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Saury group report and model results [pdf, 0.46 Mb] Model experiments and hypotheses Recommendations [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Achievements and future steps Acknowledgements [pdf, 0.29 Mb] References [pdf, 0.32 Mb] Appendix 1. List of Participants [pdf, 0.32 Mb] Appendices 2-5. FORTRAN codes [pdf, 0.4 Mb] (Document pdf contains 182 pages)

微薄梁三点弯曲的尺度效应研究

应用高灵敏度的力传感器以及时间序列电子散斑干涉法,同时测出了不同厚度纯镍薄片三点弯曲试件的抗力与变形,得到薄梁中心点处的载荷与挠度曲线.应用Fleck和Hutchinson的偶应力理论,结合平面应变弯曲模型,建立了薄梁处于弹性状态和弹塑性状态的控制方程,应用Runge-Kutta法进行数值求解,并将计算得到的载荷-挠度曲线以及无量纲化弯矩-表面应变曲线和实验结果进行了比较.在理论计算过程中,没有拟合任何材料参数,所有的材料参数均来自实验测量的结果,材料特征尺度也是根据Stolken和Evans的工作给出的.结果表明:应用偶应力理论预测的结果和实验结果符合良好,而经典理论的预测结果与实验不相符合.

Time Variation in an Optimal Asymmetric Preference Monetary Policy Model

This paper considers a time varying parameter extension of the Ruge-Murcia (2003, 2004) model to explore whether some of the variation in parameter estimates seen in the literature could arise from this source. A time varying value for the unemployment volatility parameter can be motivated through several means including variation in the slope of the Phillips curve or variation in the preferences of the monetary authority.We show that allowing time variation for the coefficient on the unemployment volatility parameter improves the model fit and it helps to provide an explanation of inflation bias based on asymmetric central banker preferences, which is consistent across subsamples.

Population response of triploid grass carp to declining levels of hydrilla in the Santee Cooper Reservoirs, South Carolina

Approximately 768,500 triploid grass carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella Valenciennes) were stocked into the Santee Cooper reservoirs, South Carolina between 1989 and 1996 to control hydrilla ( Hydrilla verticillata (L.f.) Royle). Hydrilla coverage was reduced from a high of 17,272 ha during 1994 to a few ha by 1998. During 1997, 1998 and 1999, at least 98 triploid grass carp were collected yearly for population monitoring. Estimates of age, growth, and mortality, as well as population models, were used in the study to monitor triploid grass carp and predict population trends. Condition declined from that measured during a previous study in 1994. The annual mortality rate was estimated at 28% in 1997, 32% in 1998 and 39% in 1999; however, only the 1999 mortality rate was significantly different. Few (2 out of 98) of the triploid grass carp collected during 1999 were older than age 9. We expect increased mortality due to an aging population and sparse hydrilla coverage. During 1999, we estimated about 63,000 triploid grass carp system wide and project less than 3,000 fish by 2004, assuming no future stocking. management, population size Ctenopharyngodon idella, Hydrilla

Optimal Monetary Policy with Asymmetric Preferences for Output

Using a model of an optimizing monetary authority which has preferences that weigh inflation and unemployment, Ruge-Murcia (2003, 2004) finds empirical evidence that the authority has asymmetric preferences for unemployment. We extend this model to weigh inflation and output and show that the empirical evidence using these series also supports an asymmetric preference hypothesis, only in our case, preferences are asymmetric for output. We also find evidence that the monetary authority targets potential output rather than some higher output level as would be the case in an extended Barro and Gordon (1983) model.

Regulation of Energy Metabolism by the Extracytoplasmic Function (ECF) σ Factors of Arcobacter butzleri

11 p.

Ecological linkages: Marine and estuarine ecosystems of Central and Northern California

Three of California’s four National Marine Sanctuaries, Cordell Bank, Gulf of the Farallones, and Monterey Bay, are currently undergoing a comprehensive management plan review. As part of this review, NOAA’s National Marine Sanctuary Program (NMSP) has collaborated with NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) to conduct a biogeographic assessment of selected marine resources using geographic information system (GIS) technology. This report complements the analyses conducted for this effort by providing an overview of the physical and biological characteristics of the region. Key ecosystems and species occurring in estuarine and marine waters are highlighted and linkages between them discussed. In addition, this report describes biogeographic processes operating to affect species’ distributional patterns. The biogeographic analyses build upon this background to further understanding of the biogeography of this region. (PDF contaons 172 pages)

Automated, objective texture segmentation of multibeam echosounder data - Seafloor survey and substrate maps from James Island to Ozette Lake, Washington Outer Coast

Without knowledge of basic seafloor characteristics, the ability to address any number of critical marine and/or coastal management issues is diminished. For example, management and conservation of essential fish habitat (EFH), a requirement mandated by federally guided fishery management plans (FMPs), requires among other things a description of habitats for federally managed species. Although the list of attributes important to habitat are numerous, the ability to efficiently and effectively describe many, and especially at the scales required, does not exist with the tools currently available. However, several characteristics of seafloor morphology are readily obtainable at multiple scales and can serve as useful descriptors of habitat. Recent advancements in acoustic technology, such as multibeam echosounding (MBES), can provide remote indication of surficial sediment properties such as texture, hardness, or roughness, and further permit highly detailed renderings of seafloor morphology. With acoustic-based surveys providing a relatively efficient method for data acquisition, there exists a need for efficient and reproducible automated segmentation routines to process the data. Using MBES data collected by the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary (OCNMS), and through a contracted seafloor survey, we expanded on the techniques of Cutter et al. (2003) to describe an objective repeatable process that uses parameterized local Fourier histogram (LFH) texture features to automate segmentation of surficial sediments from acoustic imagery using a maximum likelihood decision rule. Sonar signatures and classification performance were evaluated using video imagery obtained from a towed camera sled. Segmented raster images were converted to polygon features and attributed using a hierarchical deep-water marine benthic classification scheme (Greene et al. 1999) for use in a geographical information system (GIS). (PDF contains 41 pages.)

智能微尺度力学的研究

对于宏观材料的力学性能的研究通常基于传统的连续介质力学;然而,当研究对象小到微/纳米尺度时,材料缺陷等因素对微观材料力学性能影响程度将不同于宏观材料。此时,材料将表现出明显的尺度效应等力学性能。用传统连续介质理论将不能解释此现象。因此,许多学者基于正问题思想对微观材料的力学性能进行研究:Fleck-Hutchinson提出了机遇传统弹塑性理论的塑性应变梯度理论;Nix-Gao提出了基于位错理论的塑性应变梯度理论;Gerberich等提出了基于比表面能的微尺度材料尺度效应理论[3]。Kelchner等提出用分子动力学模拟方法获得微/纳米材料的力学性能[4]。这些理论都在一定程度上解释了微观材料力学性能的尺度效应。然而,这些理论仅限于理论研究阶段,且存在一定局限性。

Survey report of NOAA Ship McArthur II cruises AR-04-04, AR-05-05 and AR-06-03: Habitat classification of side scan sonar imagery in support of deep-sea coral/sponge explorations at the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary

Habitat mapping and characterization has been defined as a high-priority management issue for the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary (OCNMS), especially for poorly known deep-sea habitats that may be sensitive to anthropogenic disturbance. As a result, a team of scientists from OCNMS, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS), and other partnering institutions initiated a series of surveys to assess the distribution of deep-sea coral/sponge assemblages within the sanctuary and to look for evidence of potential anthropogenic impacts in these critical habitats. Initial results indicated that remotely delineating areas of hard bottom substrate through acoustic sensing could be a useful tool to increase the efficiency and success of subsequent ROV-based surveys of the associated deep-sea fauna. Accordingly, side scan sonar surveys were conducted in May 2004, June 2005, and April 2006 aboard the NOAA Ship McArthur II to: (1) obtain additional imagery of the seafloor for broader habitat-mapping coverage of sanctuary waters, and (2) help delineate suitable deep-sea coral/sponge habitat, in areas of both high and low commercial-fishing activities, to serve as sites for surveying-in more detail using an ROV on subsequent cruises. Several regions of the sea floor throughout the OCNMS were surveyed and mosaicked at 1-meter pixel resolution. Imagery from the side scan sonar mapping efforts was integrated with other complementary data from a towed camera sled, ROVs, sedimentary samples, and bathymetry records to describe geological and biological (where possible) aspects of habitat. Using a hierarchical deep-water marine benthic classification scheme (Greene et al. 1999), we created a preliminary map of various habitat polygon features for use in a geographical information system (GIS). This report provides a description of the mapping and groundtruthing efforts as well as results of the image classification procedure for each of the areas surveyed. (PDF contains 60 pages.)