Recent plant diversity changes on Europe's mountain summits.

In mountainous regions, climate warming is expected to shift species' ranges to higher altitudes. Evidence for such shifts is still mostly from revisitations of historical sites. We present recent (2001 to 2008) changes in vascular plant species richness observed in a standardized monitoring network across Europe's major mountain ranges. Species have moved upslope on average. However, these shifts had opposite effects on the summit floras' species richness in boreal-temperate mountain regions (+3.9 species on average) and Mediterranean mountain regions (-1.4 species), probably because recent climatic trends have decreased the availability of water in the European south. Because Mediterranean mountains are particularly rich in endemic species, a continuation of these trends might shrink the European mountain flora, despite an average increase in summit species richness across the region.

Macroeconomics: Science or Faith Based Discipline?

Whether or not macroeconomics is a science depends on the scientific nature of macroeconomic theories and how the discipline responds when the empirical evidence fails to match the underlying assumptions and predictions of the theories. By way of an example, four conditions for macroeconomics to be a science are developed and used to examine the 'modern' theories of the Phillips curve. It is found that while the discipline in general maintains one condition it routinely violates the other three. This suggests the macroeconomics discipline has some way to go before it can call itself a 'pure science.'

Comparing population distributions from bin-aggregated sample data: an application to historical height data from France

This paper develops a methodology to estimate the entire population distributions from bin-aggregated sample data. We do this through the estimation of the parameters of mixtures of distributions that allow for maximal parametric flexibility. The statistical approach we develop enables comparisons of the full distributions of height data from potential army conscripts across France's 88 departments for most of the nineteenth century. These comparisons are made by testing for differences-of-means stochastic dominance. Corrections for possible measurement errors are also devised by taking advantage of the richness of the data sets. Our methodology is of interest to researchers working on historical as well as contemporary bin-aggregated or histogram-type data, something that is still widely done since much of the information that is publicly available is in that form, often due to restrictions due to political sensitivity and/or confidentiality concerns.

Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science

Continuing developments in science and technology mean that the amounts of information forensic scientists are able to provide for criminal investigations is ever increasing. The commensurate increase in complexity creates difficulties for scientists and lawyers with regard to evaluation and interpretation, notably with respect to issues of inference and decision. Probability theory, implemented through graphical methods, and specifically Bayesian networks, provides powerful methods to deal with this complexity. Extensions of these methods to elements of decision theory provide further support and assistance to the judicial system. Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science provides a unique and comprehensive introduction to the use of Bayesian decision networks for the evaluation and interpretation of scientific findings in forensic science, and for the support of decision-makers in their scientific and legal tasks. Includes self-contained introductions to probability and decision theory. Develops the characteristics of Bayesian networks, object-oriented Bayesian networks and their extension to decision models. Features implementation of the methodology with reference to commercial and academically available software. Presents standard networks and their extensions that can be easily implemented and that can assist in the reader's own analysis of real cases. Provides a technique for structuring problems and organizing data based on methods and principles of scientific reasoning. Contains a method for the construction of coherent and defensible arguments for the analysis and evaluation of scientific findings and for decisions based on them. Is written in a lucid style, suitable for forensic scientists and lawyers with minimal mathematical background. Includes a foreword by Ian Evett. The clear and accessible style of this second edition makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists, applied statisticians and graduate students wishing to evaluate forensic findings from the perspective of probability and decision analysis. It will also appeal to lawyers and other scientists and professionals interested in the evaluation and interpretation of forensic findings, including decision making based on scientific information.

L'hystérie : une entité historique, un trouble psychiatrique ou une maladie neurologique? [Hysteria : an historical entity, a psychiatric condition or a neurological disease?]

Il a été suggéré que l'hystérie avait disparu et n'était qu'un concept ancien, stigmatisant et péjoratif, voire erroné, reflétant l'incapacité de la communauté médicale à établir parfois un diagnostic. Actuellement ces troubles, appelés troubles dissociatifs ou de conversion, restent pourtant une réalité clinique fréquente et invalidante pour les patients. Plusieurs études et revues ont tenté de mieux décrire la présentation clinique, mais également de mieux comprendre les mécanismes neurobiologiques impliqués dans ces troubles grâce au développement de certaines techniques d'imagerie cérébrale. Si les corrélats neurobiologiques sont mieux compris, des traitements efficaces manquent encore et seule une prise en charge multidisciplinaire (généralistes, neurologues et psychiatres) et individualisée peut apporter un bénéfice au patient. It has been suggested that hysteria had waned and was an old-fashioned, stigmatizing and false concept, reflecting the incapacity of the medical community to establish a diagnosis in certain situations. Nowadays, however, those disturbances, now referred to as conversion or dissociative disorders, still remain a frequent and incapacitating condition that every clinician faces. These past decades, several studies have tried to better describe their clinical presentation and their neurobiological mechanisms, with the help of the development of new neuroimaging techniques. If the neurobiological correlates are now better understood, efficient treatments are still lacking and only a multidisciplinary (general practitioners, neurologists and psychiatrists) and individually-tailored therapy might be beneficial to the patients.