The influence of anthropogenic aerosol on multi-decadal variations of historical global climate

Analysis of single forcing runs from CMIP5 (the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) simulations shows that the mid-twentieth century temperature hiatus, and the coincident decrease in precipitation, is likely to have been influenced strongly by anthropogenic aerosol forcing. Models that include a representation of the indirect effect of aerosol better reproduce inter-decadal variability in historical global-mean near-surface temperatures, particularly the cooling in the 1950s and 1960s, compared to models with representation of the aerosol direct effect only. Models with the indirect effect also show a more pronounced decrease in precipitation during this period, which is in better agreement with observations, and greater inter-decadal variability in the inter-hemispheric temperature difference. This study demonstrates the importance of representing aerosols, and their indirect effects, in general circulation models, and suggests that inter-model diversity in aerosol burden and representation of aerosol–cloud interaction can produce substantial variation in simulations of climate variability on multi decadal timescales.

Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes appear to be slightly underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate–carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO2 and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated. Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2 × and 4 × CO2 experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate–carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by general circulation models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows a non-linear interaction between land-use change and CO2 forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO2 between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from palaeoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of unforced variability within the climate system, uncertainty in the reconstructions of temperature and CO2, errors in the reconstructions of forcing used to drive the models, or the incomplete representation of certain processes within the models. Given the forcing datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emissions over the pre-industrial period. This implies that land-use emissions might need to be taken into account, when making estimates of climate–carbon feedbacks from palaeoclimate reconstructions.

An historical perspective on the development of the thermodynamic equation of seawater - 2010

Oceanography is concerned with understanding the mechanisms controlling the movement of seawater and its contents. A fundamental tool in this process is the characterization of the thermophysical properties of seawater as functions of measured temperature and electrical conductivity, the latter used as a proxy for the concentration of dissolved matter in seawater. For many years a collection of algorithms denoted the Equation of State 1980 (EOS-80) has been the internationally accepted standard for calculating such properties. However, modern measurement technology now allows routine observations of temperature and electrical conductivity to be made to at least one order of magnitude more accurately than the uncertainty in this standard. Recently, a new standard has been developed, the Thermodynamical Equation of Seawater 2010 (TEOS-10). This new standard is thermodynamically consistent, valid over a wider range of temperature and salinity, and includes a mechanism to account for composition variations in seawater. Here we review the scientific development of this standard, and describe the literature involved in its development, which includes many of the articles in this special issue.

The Haptic Aesthetic in Samuel Beckett's Drama

In their sparse and isolated spaces, Samuel Beckett's figures imagine the touch of a lost love or dream of the comfort and care that the hands of a dear one might bring. Applying philosophical writings that feature sensation, particularly touch, this study examines how Beckett's later work for stage and screen dramatizes moments of contact between self and self, self and world, and self and other. With implications for how gender and ethics can be approached within Beckett's aesthetic, this study explores the employment of haptic imagery as an alternative to certain dominant codes of visual representation.

An historical perspective on forecast errors

Using annual observations on industrial production over the last three centuries, and on GDP over a 100-year period, we seek an historical perspective on the forecastability of these UK output measures. The series are dominated by strong upward trends, so we consider various specifications of this, including the local linear trend structural time-series model, which allows the level and slope of the trend to vary. Our results are not unduly sensitive to how the trend in the series is modelled: the average sizes of the forecast errors of all models, and the wide span of prediction intervals, attests to a great deal of uncertainty in the economic environment. It appears that, from an historical perspective, the postwar period has been relatively more forecastable.

Combined use of satellite estimates and rain gauge observations to generate high-quality historical rainfall time series over Ethiopia

Climate data are used in a number of applications including climate risk management and adaptation to climate change. However, the availability of climate data, particularly throughout rural Africa, is very limited. Available weather stations are unevenly distributed and mainly located along main roads in cities and towns. This imposes severe limitations to the availability of climate information and services for the rural community where, arguably, these services are needed most. Weather station data also suffer from gaps in the time series. Satellite proxies, particularly satellite rainfall estimate, have been used as alternatives because of their availability even over remote parts of the world. However, satellite rainfall estimates also suffer from a number of critical shortcomings that include heterogeneous time series, short time period of observation, and poor accuracy particularly at higher temporal and spatial resolutions. An attempt is made here to alleviate these problems by combining station measurements with the complete spatial coverage of satellite rainfall estimates. Rain gauge observations are merged with a locally calibrated version of the TAMSAT satellite rainfall estimates to produce over 30-years (1983-todate) of rainfall estimates over Ethiopia at a spatial resolution of 10 km and a ten-daily time scale. This involves quality control of rain gauge data, generating locally calibrated version of the TAMSAT rainfall estimates, and combining these with rain gauge observations from national station network. The infrared-only satellite rainfall estimates produced using a relatively simple TAMSAT algorithm performed as good as or even better than other satellite rainfall products that use passive microwave inputs and more sophisticated algorithms. There is no substantial difference between the gridded-gauge and combined gauge-satellite products over the test area in Ethiopia having a dense station network; however, the combined product exhibits better quality over parts of the country where stations are sparsely distributed.

Haircut undone? The Greek drama and prospects for investment arbitration

As a result of the sovereign debt crisis that engulfed Europe in 2010, investors are much more likely to pursue dispute resolution options when faced with losses. This paper seeks to examine the position of investors who suffered losses in the Greek haircut of 2012 in the context of investment treaty arbitration. The paper evaluates arguments that investments in Greek sovereign bonds have been expropriated by the introduction of retrofit CACs and that compensation is payable as a result of the protections offered by BITs. The paper investigates whether sovereign bonds come within the definition of protected investment in BITs, assesses the degree to which CACs act as a jurisdictional bar to investor-state claims and attempts an evaluation of whether claims could be successful. The analysis uses as an illustration recent cases brought against Greece at ICSID. The paper concludes by considering whether the Greek haircut was expropriatory and reflects on the possible outcome of current arbitrations.

British television drama: past, present and future. 2nd edition

British Television Drama provides resources for critical thinking about key aspects of television drama in Britain since 1960, including institutional, textual, cultural, economic and audience-centred modes of study. It presents and contests significant strands of critical work in the field, and comprises essays by TV professionals and academics plus editors' introductions to each section that contextualise the chapters. The new edition includes a revised chapter by acclaimed TV producer Tony Garnett reflecting on his work since Cathy Come Home in the 1960s, new chapters by Phil Redmond, the creator of Brookside and Hollyoaks, and Cameron Roach, Head of Drama Commissioning at Sky TV and former executive producer of Waterloo Road. New academic analyses include work on Downton Abbey, The Sarah Jane Adventures, Ashes to Ashes, adaptations of Persuasion, and the changing production methods on Coronation Street.

The spaces of the Wednesday Play (BBC TV 1964–1970): production, technology and style

The BBC television drama anthology The Wednesday Play, broadcast from 1964-70 on the BBC1 channel, was high-profile and often controversial in its time and has since been central to accounts of British television’s ‘golden age’. This article demonstrates that production technologies and methods were more diverse at that time than is now acknowledged, and that The Wednesday Play dramas drew both approving but also very critical responses from contemporary viewers and professional reviewers. This article analyses the ways that the physical spaces of production for different dramas in the series, and the different technologies of shooting and recording that were adopted in these production spaces, are associated with but do not determine aesthetic style. The adoption of single-camera location filming rather than the established production method of multi-camera studio videotaping in some of the dramas in the series has been important to The Wednesday Play’s significance, but each production method was used in different ways. The dramas drew their dramatic forms and aesthetic emphases from both theatre and cinema, as well as connecting with debates about the nature of drama for television. Institutional and regulatory frameworks such as control over staff working away from base, budgetary considerations and union agreements also impacted on decisions about how programmes were made. The article makes use of records from the BBC Written Archives Centre, as well as published scholarship. By placing The Wednesday Play in a range of overlapping historical contexts, its identity can be understood as transitional, differentiated and contested.

Using drama techniques for the teaching of early years science : a case study

This paper investigates the effect of drama techniques when employed to facilitate teaching and learning early years science. The focus is a lesson intervention designed for a group of children aged between four and five years old. A number of different drama techniques, such as teacher in role, hot seating and miming, were employed for the teaching of the water cycle. The techniques were implemented based on their nature and on what they can offer to young children considering their previous experiences. Before the beginning of the intervention, six children were randomly selected from the whole class, who were interviewed, aiming to identify their initial ideas in regards to the water cycle. The same children were interviewed after the end of the intervention in an attempt to identify the ways in which their initial ideas were changed. The results appear to be promising in terms of facilitating children’s scientific understanding and show an improvement in the children’s use of vocabulary in relation to the specific topic.