The impact of sea ice dynamics on the Arctic climate system

Five paired global climate model experiments, one with an ice pack that only responds thermodynamically (TI) and one including sea-ice dynamics (DI), were used to investigate the sensitivity of Arctic climates to sea-ice motion. The sequence of experiments includes situations in which the Arctic was both considerably colder (Glacial Inception, ca 115,000 years ago) and considerably warmer (3 × CO2) than today. Sea-ice motion produces cooler anomalies year-round than simulations without ice dynamics, resulting in reduced Arctic warming in warm scenarios and increased Arctic cooling in cold scenarios. These changes reflect changes in atmospheric circulation patterns: the DI simulations favor outflow of Arctic air and sea ice into the North Atlantic by promoting cyclonic circulation centered over northern Eurasia, whereas the TI simulations favor southerly inflow of much warmer air from the North Atlantic by promoting cyclonic circulation centered over Greenland. The differences between the paired simulations are sufficiently large to produce different vegetation cover over >19% of the land area north of 55°N, resulting in changes in land-surface characteristics large enough to have an additional impact on climate. Comparison of the DI and TI experiments for the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) with paleovegetation reconstructions suggests the incorporation of sea-ice dynamics yields a more realistic simulation of high-latitude climates. The spatial pattern of sea-ice anomalies in the warmer-than-modern DI experiments strongly resembles the observed Arctic Ocean sea-ice dipole structure in recent decades, consistent with the idea that greenhouse warming is already impacting the high-northern latitudes.

Dissociation between the impact of evidence on eye movement target choice and confidence judgements

It has been suggested that the evidence used to support a decision to move our eyes and the confidence we have in that decision are derived from a common source. Alternatively, confidence may be based on further post-decisional processes. In three experiments we examined this. In Experiment 1, participants chose between two targets on the basis of varying levels of evidence (i.e., the direction of motion coherence in a Random-Dot-Kinematogram). They indicated this choice by making a saccade to one of two targets and then indicated their confidence. Saccade trajectory deviation was taken as a measure of the inhibition of the non-selected target. We found that as evidence increased so did confidence and deviations of saccade trajectory away from the non-selected target. However, a correlational analysis suggested they were not related. In Experiment 2 an option to opt-out of the choice was offered on some trials if choice proved too difficult. In this way we isolated trials on which confidence in target selection was high (i.e., when the option to opt-out was available but not taken). Again saccade trajectory deviations were found not to differ in relation to confidence. In Experiment 3 we directly manipulated confidence, such that participants had high or low task confidence. They showed no differences in saccade trajectory deviations. These results support post-decisional accounts of confidence: evidence supporting the decision to move the eyes is reflected in saccade control, but the confidence that we have in that choice is subject to further post-decisional processes.

Greater impact of dietary fat manipulation than apolipoprotein E genotype on ex-vivo cytokine production – insights from the SATgenε study

Apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype is believed to play an important role in cardiovascular risk. APOE4 carriers have been associated with higher blood lipid levels and a more pro-inflammatory state compared with APOE3/E3 individuals. Although dietary fat composition has been considered to modulate the inflammatory state in humans, very little is known about how APOE genotype can impact on this response. In a follow-up to the main SATgene study, we aimed to explore the effects of APOE genotype, as well as, dietary fat manipulation on ex vivo cytokine production. Blood samples were collected from a subset of SATgene participants (n = 52/88), prospectively recruited according to APOE genotype (n = 26 E3/E3 and n = 26 E3/E4) after low-fat (LF), high saturated fat (HSF) and HSF with 3.45 g docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) dietary periods (each diet eight weeks in duration assigned in the same order) for the measurement of ex vivo cytokine production using whole blood culture (WBC). Concentrations of IL-1beta, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10 and TNF-alpha were measured in WBC supernatant samples after stimulation for 24 h with either 0.05 or 1 lg/ml of bacterial lipopolysaccharide (LPS). Cytokine levels were not influenced by genotype, whereas, dietary fat manipulation had a significant impact on TNF-a and IL-10 production; TNF-a concentration was higher after consumption of the HSF diet compared with baseline and the LF diet (P < 0.05), whereas, IL-10 concentration was higher after the LF diet compared with baseline (P < 0.05). In conclusion, our study has revealed the amount and type of dietary fat can significantly modulate the production of TNF-a and IL-10 by ex vivo LPS-stimulated WBC samples obtained from normolipidaemic subjects.

Impact of postprandial glycaemia on health and prevention of disease

Postprandial glucose, together with related hyperinsulinemia and lipidaemia, has been implicated in the development of chronic metabolic diseases like obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). In this review, available evidence is discussed on postprandial glucose in relation to body weight control, the development of oxidative stress, T2DM, and CVD and in maintaining optimal exercise and cognitive performance. There is mechanistic evidence linking postprandial glycaemia or glycaemic variability to the development of these conditions or in the impairment in cognitive and exercise performance. Nevertheless, postprandial glycaemia is interrelated with many other (risk) factors as well as to fasting glucose. In many studies, meal-related glycaemic response is not sufficiently characterized, or the methodology with respect to the description of food or meal composition, or the duration of the measurement of postprandial glycaemia is limited. It is evident that more randomized controlled dietary intervention trials using effective low vs. high glucose response diets are necessary in order to draw more definite conclusions on the role of postprandial glycaemia in relation to health and disease. Also of importance is the evaluation of the potential role of the time course of postprandial glycaemia.

Evidence for a second meal cognitive effect: glycaemic responses to high and low glycaemic index evening meals are associated with cognition the following morning

Low glycaemic index (GI) foods consumed at breakfast can enhance memory in comparison to high-GI foods; however, the impact of evening meal GI manipulations on cognition the following morning remains unexplored. Fourteen healthy males consumed a high-GI evening meal or a low-GI evening meal in a counterbalanced order on two separate evenings. Memory and attention were assessed before and after a high-GI breakfast the following morning. The high-GI evening meal elicited significantly higher evening glycaemic responses than the low-GI evening meal. Verbal recall was better the morning following the high-GI evening meal compared to after the low-GI evening meal. In summary, the GI of the evening meal was associated with memory performance the next day, suggesting a second meal cognitive effect. The present findings imply that an overnight fast may not be sufficient to control for previous nutritional consumption.

Impact of the enhanced permeability and retention (EPR) effect and cathepsins levels on the activity of polymer-drug conjugates

Polymer-drug conjugates have demonstrated clinical potential in the context of anticancer therapy. However, such promising results have, to date, failed to translate into a marketed product. Polymer-drug conjugates rely on two factors for activity: (i) the presence of a defective vasculature, for passive accumulation of this technology into the tumour tissue (enhanced permeability and retention (EPR) effect) and (ii) the presence of a specific trigger at the tumour site, for selective drug release (e.g., the enzyme cathepsin B). Here, we retrospectively analyse literature data to investigate which tumour types have proved more responsive to polymer-drug conjugates and to determine correlations between the magnitude of the EPR effect and/or expression of cathepsin B. Lung, breast and ovarian cancers showed the highest response rate (30%, 47% and 41%, respectively for cathepsin-activated conjugates and 31%, 43%, 40%, across all conjugates). An analysis of literature data on cathepsin content in various tumour types showed that these tumour types had high cathepsin content (up to 3835 ng/mg for lung cancer), although marked heterogeneity was observed across different studies. In addition, these tumour types were also reported as having a high EPR effect. Our results suggest that a pre-screening of patient population could bring a more marked clinical benefit.

Impact of non-hydrostatic effects and trapped lee waves on mountain wave drag in directionally sheared flow

The orographic gravity wave drag produced in flow over an axisymmetric mountain when both vertical wind shear and non-hydrostatic effects are important was calculated using a semi-analytical two-layer linear model, including unidirectional or directional constant wind shear in a layer near the surface, above which the wind is constant. The drag behaviour is determined by partial wave reflection at the shear discontinuity, wave absorption at critical levels (both of which exist in hydrostatic flow), and total wave reflection at levels where the waves become evanescent (an intrinsically non-hydrostatic effect), which produces resonant trapped lee wave modes. As a result of constructive or destructive wave interference, the drag oscillates with the thickness of the constant-shear layer and the Richardson number within it (Ri), generally decreasing at low Ri and when the flow is strongly non-hydrostatic. Critical level absorption, which increases with the angle spanned by the wind velocity in the constant-shear layer, shields the surface from reflected waves, keeping the drag closer to its hydrostatic limit. While, for the parameter range considered here, the drag seldom exceeds this limit, a substantial drag fraction may be produced by trapped lee waves, particularly when the flow is strongly non-hydrostatic, the lower layer is thick and Ri is relatively high. In directionally sheared flows with Ri = O(1), the drag may be misaligned with the surface wind in a direction opposite to the shear, a behaviour which is totally due to non-trapped waves. The trapped lee wave drag, whose reaction force on the atmosphere is felt at low levels, may therefore have a distinctly different direction from the drag associated with vertically propagating waves, which acts on the atmosphere at higher levels.

Simulated climate change impact on summer dissolved organic carbon release from peat and surface vegetation: implications for drinking water treatment

Uncertainty regarding changes in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) quantity and quality has created interest in managing peatlands for their ecosystem services such as drinking water provision. The evidence base for such interventions is, however, sometimes contradictory. We performed a laboratory climate manipulation using a factorial design on two dominant peatland vegetation types (Calluna vulgaris and Sphagnum Spp.) and a peat soil collected from a drinking water catchment in Exmoor National Park, UK. Temperature and rainfall were set to represent baseline and future conditions under the UKCP09 2080s high emissions scenario for July and August. DOC leachate then underwent standard water treatment of coagulation/flocculation before chlorination. C. vulgaris leached more DOC than Sphagnum Spp. (7.17 versus 3.00 mg g−1) with higher specific ultraviolet (SUVA) values and a greater sensitivity to climate, leaching more DOC under simulated future conditions. The peat soil leached less DOC (0.37 mg g−1) than the vegetation and was less sensitive to climate. Differences in coagulation removal efficiency between the DOC sources appears to be driven by relative solubilisation of protein-like DOC, observed through the fluorescence peak C/T. Post-coagulation only differences between vegetation types were detected for the regulated disinfection by-products (DBPs), suggesting climate change influence at this scale can be removed via coagulation. Our results suggest current biodiversity restoration programmes to encourage Sphagnum Spp. will result in lower DOC concentrations and SUVA values, particularly with warmer and drier summers.

Challenges in conducting and publishing research on the Middle East and Africa in leading journals

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the reasons for the lack of research attention paid to the Middle East (ME) and Africa regions. In particular, this study seeks to identify the reasons for and implications of the paucity of ME- and Africa-based studies in high-quality international journals in the marketing field with a specific focus on the challenges in conducting and publishing research on these regions. Design/methodology/approach – The authors conducted a systematic review of the literature on the ME and Africa regions to identify papers published in 23 high-quality marketing, international business, and advertising journals. This search resulted in 301 articles, among which 125 articles were based on primary or secondary data collected from a local source in those regions. The authors of these 125 articles constitute the Delphi study sample. These academics provided input in an effort to reach a consensus regarding the two proposed models of academic research in both regions. Findings – This paper differs from previous studies, where academic freedom emerged as the most important inhibitor to conducting and publishing research. The most frequently mentioned challenges in conducting research in Africa were access to data, data collection issues, diversity of the region, and lack of research support infrastructure. For the ME, the most often described challenges included validity and reliability of data, language barriers, data collection issues, and availability of a network of researchers. Editors’ and reviewers’ low interest and limited knowledge were ranked high in both regions. South Africa, Israel, and Turkey emerged as outliers, in which research barriers were less challenging than in the rest of the two regions. The authors attribute this difference to the high incidence of US-trained or US-based scholars originating from these countries. Originality/value – To the best of the knowledge, no marketing studies have discussed the problems of publishing in high-quality international journals of marketing, international business, and advertising for either region. Thus, most of the issues the authors discuss in this paper offer new insightful results while supplementing previous research on the challenges of conducting and publishing research on specific world regions.

A spatial view of ensemble spread in convection permitting ensembles

With movement toward kilometer-scale ensembles, new techniques are needed for their characterization. A new methodology is presented for detailed spatial ensemble characterization using the fractions skill score (FSS). To evaluate spatial forecast differences, the average and standard deviation are taken of the FSS calculated over all ensemble member–member pairs at different scales and lead times. These methods were found to give important information about the ensemble behavior allowing the identification of useful spatial scales, spinup times for the model, and upscale growth of errors and forecast differences. The ensemble spread was found to be highly dependent on the spatial scales considered and the threshold applied to the field. High thresholds picked out localized and intense values that gave large temporal variability in ensemble spread: local processes and undersampling dominate for these thresholds. For lower thresholds the ensemble spread increases with time as differences between the ensemble members upscale. Two convective cases were investigated based on the Met Office United Model run at 2.2-km resolution. Different ensemble types were considered: ensembles produced using the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS) and an ensemble produced using different model physics configurations. Comparison of the MOGREPS and multiphysics ensembles demonstrated the utility of spatial ensemble evaluation techniques for assessing the impact of different perturbation strategies and the need for assessing spread at different, believable, spatial scales.

Evaluating the potential of high pressure high temperature and thermal processing on volatile compounds, nutritional and structural properties of orange and yellow carrots

The present study compares the impact of thermal and high pressure high temperature(HPHT) processing on volatile profile (via a non-targeted headspace fingerprinting) and structural and nutritional quality parameter (via targeted approaches) of orange and yellow carrot purees. The effect of oil enrichment was also considered. Since oil enrichment affects compounds volatility, the effect of oil was not studied when comparing the volatile fraction. For the targeted part, as yellow carrot purees were shown to contain a very low amount of carotenoids, focus was given to orange carrot purees. The results of the non-targeted approach demonstrated HPHT processing exerts a distinct effect on the volatile fractions compared to thermal processing. In addition, different colored carrot varieties are characterized by distinct headspace fingerprints. From a structural point of view, limited or no difference could be observed between orange carrot purees treated with HPHT or HT processes, both for samples without and with oil. From nutritional point of view, only in samples with oil, significant isomerisation of all-trans-β-carotene occurred due to both processing. Overall, for this type of product and for the selected conditions, HPHT processing seems to have a different impact on the volatile profile but rather similar impact on the structural and nutritional attributes compared to thermal processing.

Addition of different fats to a carbohydrate food: impact on gastric emptying, glycaemic and satiety responses and comparison with in vitro digestion

In vitro, the addition of lipids to a carbohydrate food has been found to increase the digestibility of starch. In contrast, in vivo studies have shown that the addition of fat to a food can reduce the glycaemic response (GR). The aim of this study was to assess if delayed gastric emptying (GE) causes reduced GR with the addition of lipids to a carbohydrate food and if a relationship between GR and in vitro digestion of starch exists for high fat foods. Ten healthy volunteers were tested on five occasions after consuming pancakes containing 50 g of available carbohydrate and 202 kcal of sunflower oil, olive oil, butter, medium chain triglyceride (MCT) oil or a control containing no oil. GR was measured using fingerpick blood samples, satiety using visual analogue scales and GE using the 13C octanoic acid breath test. There was a significant difference in GR between the different pancake breakfasts (p = 0.05). The highest GR was observed following the control pancakes and the lowest following the olive oil pancakes. There were significant differences in GE half time, lag phase and ascension time (p < 0.05) between the different pancakes with the control pancakes having the shortest GE time and the MCT pancakes the longest. There was a significant difference in satiety parameters fullness (p = 0.003) and prospective consumption (p = 0.050), with satiety being lowest following the control pancakes. There was a significant inverse correlation between the GR and all satiety parameters. A significant inverse correlation (p = 0.009) was also observed between the digestibility of starch in vitro and GR in vivo. The paper indicates that the digestibility of starch in vitro does not predict the GR for high fat containing foods

The impact of monsoon intraseasonal variability on renewable power generation in India

India is increasingly investing in renewable technology to meet rising energy demands, with hydropower and other renewables comprising one-third of current installed capacity. Installed wind-power is projected to increase 5-fold by 2035 (to nearly 100GW) under the International Energy Agency’s New Policies scenario. However, renewable electricity generation is dependent upon the prevailing meteorology, which is strongly influenced by monsoon variability. Prosperity and widespread electrification are increasing the demand for air conditioning, especially during the warm summer. This study uses multi-decadal observations and meteorological reanalysis data to assess the impact of intraseasonal monsoon variability on the balance of electricity supply from wind-power and temperature-related demand in India. Active monsoon phases are characterised by vigorous convection and heavy rainfall over central India. This results in lower temperatures giving lower cooling energy demand, while strong westerly winds yield high wind-power output. In contrast, monsoon breaks are characterised by suppressed precipitation, with higher temperatures and hence greater demand for cooling, and lower wind-power output across much of India. The opposing relationship between wind-power supply and cooling demand during active phases (low demand, high supply) and breaks (high demand, low supply) suggests that monsoon variability will tend to exacerbate fluctuations in the so-called demand-net-wind (i.e., electrical demand that must be supplied from non-wind sources). This study may have important implications for the design of power systems and for investment decisions in conventional schedulable generation facilities (such as coal and gas) that are used to maintain the supply/demand balance. In particular, if it is assumed (as is common) that the generated wind-power operates as a price-taker (i.e., wind farm operators always wish to sell their power, irrespective of price) then investors in conventional facilities will face additional weather-volatility through the monsoonal impact on the length and frequency of production periods (i.e. their load-duration curves).

An assessment of the impact of local processes on dust lifting in martian climate models

Simulation of the lifting of dust from the planetary surface is of substantially greater importance on Mars than on Earth, due to the fundamental role that atmospheric dust plays in the former’s climate, yet the dust emission parameterisations used to date in martian global climate models (MGCMs) lag, understandably, behind their terrestrial counterparts in terms of sophistication. Recent developments in estimating surface roughness length over all martian terrains and in modelling atmospheric circulations at regional to local scales (less than O(100 km)) presents an opportunity to formulate an improved wind stress lifting parameterisation. We have upgraded the conventional scheme by including the spatially varying roughness length in the lifting parameterisation in a fully consistent manner (thereby correcting a possible underestimation of the true threshold level for wind stress lifting), and used a modification to account for deviations from neutral stability in the surface layer. Following these improvements, it is found that wind speeds at typical MGCM resolution never reach the lifting threshold at most gridpoints: winds fall particularly short in the southern midlatitudes, where mean roughness is large. Sub-grid scale variability, manifested in both the near-surface wind field and the surface roughness, is then considered, and is found to be a crucial means of bridging the gap between model winds and thresholds. Both forms of small-scale variability contribute to the formation of dust emission ‘hotspots’: areas within the model gridbox with particularly favourable conditions for lifting, namely a smooth surface combined with strong near-surface gusts. Such small-scale emission could in fact be particularly influential on Mars, due both to the intense positive radiative feedbacks that can drive storm growth and a strong hysteresis effect on saltation. By modelling this variability, dust lifting is predicted at the locations at which dust storms are frequently observed, including the flushing storm sources of Chryse and Utopia, and southern midlatitude areas from which larger storms tend to initiate, such as Hellas and Solis Planum. The seasonal cycle of emission, which includes a double-peaked structure in northern autumn and winter, also appears realistic. Significant increases to lifting rates are produced for any sensible choices of parameters controlling the sub-grid distributions used, but results are sensitive to the smallest scale of variability considered, which high-resolution modelling suggests should be O(1 km) or less. Use of such models in future will permit the use of a diagnosed (rather than prescribed) variable gustiness intensity, which should further enhance dust lifting in the southern hemisphere in particular.

Replacement of saturated with unsaturated fats had no impact on vascular function but beneficial effects on lipid biomarkers, E-selectin and blood pressure: results from the randomized, controlled Dietary Intervention and VAScular function (DIVAS) study

Background: Public health strategies to lower cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk involve reducing dietary saturated fatty acid (SFA) intake to ≤10% of total energy (%TE). However, the optimal type of replacement fat is unclear. Objective: We investigated the substitution of 9.5-9.6%TE dietary SFA with either monounsaturated (MUFA) or n-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) on vascular function and other CVD risk factors. Design: Using a randomized, controlled, single-blind, parallel group dietary intervention, 195 men and women aged 21-60 y with moderate CVD risk (≥50% above the population mean) from the United Kingdom followed one of three 16-wk isoenergetic diets (%TE target compositions, total fat:SFA:MUFA:n-6 PUFA): SFA-rich (36:17:11:4, n = 65), MUFA-rich (36:9:19:4, n = 64) or n-6 PUFA-rich (36:9:13:10, n = 66). The primary outcome measure was flow-mediated dilatation (%FMD); secondary outcome measures included fasting serum lipids, microvascular reactivity, arterial stiffness, ambulatory blood pressure, and markers of insulin resistance, inflammation and endothelial activation. Results: Replacing SFA with MUFA or n-6 PUFA did not significantly impact on %FMD (primary endpoint) or other measures of vascular reactivity. Of the secondary outcome measures, substitution of SFA with MUFA attenuated the increase in night systolic blood pressure (-4.9 mm Hg, P = 0.019) and reduced E-selectin (-7.8%, P = 0.012). Replacement with MUFA or n-6 PUFA lowered fasting serum total cholesterol (TC; -8.4% and -9.2%, respectively), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (-11.3% and -13.6%) and TC to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (-5.6% and -8.5%) (P ≤ 0.001). These changes in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol equate to an estimated 17-20% reduction in CVD mortality. Conclusions: Substitution of 9.5-9.6%TE dietary SFA with either MUFA or n-6 PUFA did not impact significantly on %FMD or other measures of vascular function. However, the beneficial effects on serum lipid biomarkers, blood pressure and E-selectin offer a potential public health strategy for CVD risk reduction.