How serious are they? The use of data linkage to explore different definitions of serious road crash injuries

Over recent years, the focus in road safety has shifted towards a greater understanding of road crash serious injuries in addition to fatalities. Police reported crash data are often the primary source of crash information; however, the definition of serious injury within these data is not consistent across jurisdictions and may not be accurately operationalised. This study examined the linkage of police-reported road crash data with hospital data to explore the potential for linked data to enhance the quantification of serious injury. Data from the Queensland Road Crash Database (QRCD), the Queensland Hospital Admitted Patients Data Collection (QHAPDC), Emergency Department Information System (EDIS), and the Queensland Injury Surveillance Unit (QISU) for the year 2009 were linked. Nine different estimates of serious road crash injury were produced. Results showed that there was a large amount of variation in the estimates of the number and profile of serious road crash injuries depending on the definition or measure used. The results also showed that as the definition of serious injury becomes more precise the vulnerable road users become more prominent. These results have major implications in terms of how serious injuries are identified for reporting purposes. Depending on the definitions used, the calculation of cost and understanding of the impact of serious injuries would vary greatly. This study has shown how data linkage can be used to investigate issues of data quality. It has also demonstrated the potential improvements to the understanding of the road safety problem, particularly serious injury, by conducting data linkage.

The National Road Safety Partnership Program providing a pathway for any business/organisation to create a positive road safety culture

The National Road Safety Partnership Program (NRSPP) is an industry-led collaborative network which aims to support Australian businesses in developing a positive road safety culture. It aims to help businesses to protect their employees and the public, not only during work hours, but also when their staff are ‘off-duty’. How do we engage and help an organisation minimise work-related vehicle crashes and their consequences both internally, and within the broader community? The first step is helping an organisation to understand the true cost of its road incidents. Larger organisations often wear the costs without knowing the true impact to their bottom line. All they perceive is the change in insurance or vehicle repairs. Understanding the true cost should help mobilise a business’s leadership to do more. The next step is ensuring the business undertakes an informed, structured, evidence-based pathway which will guide them around the costly pitfalls. A pathway based around the safe system approach with buy-in at the top which brings the workforce along. The final step, benchmarking, allows the organisation to measure and track its change. This symposium will explore the pathway steps for organisations using NRSPP resources to become engaged in road safety. The 'Total Cost of Risk' calculator has been developed by Zurich, tested in Europe by Nestle and modified by NRSPP for Australia. This provides the first crucial step. The next step is a structured approach through the Workplace Road Safety Guide using experts and industry to discuss the preferred safe system approach which can then link into the national Benchmarking Project. The outputs from the symposium can help frame a pathway for organisations to follow through the NRSPP website.

Working covariance model selection for generalized estimating equations

We investigate methods for data-based selection of working covariance models in the analysis of correlated data with generalized estimating equations. We study two selection criteria: Gaussian pseudolikelihood and a geodesic distance based on discrepancy between model-sensitive and model-robust regression parameter covariance estimators. The Gaussian pseudolikelihood is found in simulation to be reasonably sensitive for several response distributions and noncanonical mean-variance relations for longitudinal data. Application is also made to a clinical dataset. Assessment of adequacy of both correlation and variance models for longitudinal data should be routine in applications, and we describe open-source software supporting this practice.

Working-correlation-structure identification in generalized estimating equations

Selecting an appropriate working correlation structure is pertinent to clustered data analysis using generalized estimating equations (GEE) because an inappropriate choice will lead to inefficient parameter estimation. We investigate the well-known criterion of QIC for selecting a working correlation Structure. and have found that performance of the QIC is deteriorated by a term that is theoretically independent of the correlation structures but has to be estimated with an error. This leads LIS to propose a correlation information criterion (CIC) that substantially improves the QIC performance. Extensive simulation studies indicate that the CIC has remarkable improvement in selecting the correct correlation structures. We also illustrate our findings using a data set from the Madras Longitudinal Schizophrenia Study.

Working correlation structure misspecification, estimation and covariate design: Implications for generalised estimating equations performance

The method of generalised estimating equations for regression modelling of clustered outcomes allows for specification of a working matrix that is intended to approximate the true correlation matrix of the observations. We investigate the asymptotic relative efficiency of the generalised estimating equation for the mean parameters when the correlation parameters are estimated by various methods. The asymptotic relative efficiency depends on three-features of the analysis, namely (i) the discrepancy between the working correlation structure and the unobservable true correlation structure, (ii) the method by which the correlation parameters are estimated and (iii) the 'design', by which we refer to both the structures of the predictor matrices within clusters and distribution of cluster sizes. Analytical and numerical studies of realistic data-analysis scenarios show that choice of working covariance model has a substantial impact on regression estimator efficiency. Protection against avoidable loss of efficiency associated with covariance misspecification is obtained when a 'Gaussian estimation' pseudolikelihood procedure is used with an AR(1) structure.

Relative Contribution of Cell Proliferation and Microvascularity to Metastasis in Malignant Uveal Melanoma

Uveal melanoma (UM) is the second most common primary intraocular cancer worldwide. It is a relatively rare cancer, but still the second most common type of primary malignant melanoma in humans. UM is a slowly growing tumor, and gives rise to distant metastasis mainly to the liver via the bloodstream. About 40% of patients with UM die of metastatic disease within 10 years of diagnosis, irrespective of the type of treatment. During the last decade, two main lines of research have aimed to achieve enhanced understanding of the metastasis process and accurate prognosis of patients with UM. One emphasizes the characteristics of tumor cells, particularly their nucleoli, and markers of proliferation, and the other the characteristics of tumor blood vessels. Of several morphometric measurements, the mean diameter of the ten largest nucleoli (MLN) has become the most widely applied. A large MLN has consistently been associated with high likelihood of dying from UM. Blood vessels are of paramount importance in metastasis of UM. Different extravascular matrix patterns can be seen in UM, like loops and networks. This presence is associated with death from metastatic melanoma. However, the density of microvessels is also of prognostic importance. This study was undertaken to help understanding some histopathological factors which might contribute to developing metastasis in UM patients. Factors which could be related to tumor progression to metastasis disease, namely nucleolar size, MLN, microvascular density (MVD), cell proliferation, and The Insulin-like Growth Factor 1 Receptor(IGF-1R), were investigated. The primary aim of this thesis was to study the relationship between prognostic factors such as tumor cell nucleolar size, proliferation, extravascular matrix patterns, and dissemination of UM, and to assess to what extent there is a relationship to metastasis. The secondary goal was to develop a multivariate model which includes MLN and cell proliferation in addition to MVD, and which would fit better with population-based, melanoma-related survival data than previous models. I studied 167 patients with UM, who developed metastasis even after a very long time following removal of the eye, metastatic disease was the main cause of death, as documented in the Finnish Cancer Registry and on death certificates. Using an independent population-based data set, it was confirmed that MLN and extravascular matrix loops and networks were unrelated, independent predictors of survival in UM. Also, it has been found that multivariate models including MVD in addition to MLN fitted significantly better with survival data than models which excluded MVD. This supports the idea that both the characteristics of the blood vessels and the cells are important, and the future direction would be to look for the gene expression profile, whether it is associated more with MVD or MLN. The former relates to the host response to the tumor and may not be as tightly associated with the gene expression profile, yet most likely involved in the process of hematogenous metastasis. Because fresh tumor material is needed for reliable genetic analysis, such analysis could not be performed Although noninvasive detection of certain extravascular matrix patterns is now technically possible,in managing patients with UM, this study and tumor genetics suggest that such noninvasive methods will not fully capture the process of clinical metastasis. Progress in resection and biopsy techniques is likely in the near future to result in fresh material for the ophthalmic pathologist to correlate angiographic data, histopathological characteristics such as MLN, and genetic data. This study supported the theory that tumors containing epithelioid cells grow faster and have poorer prognosis when studied by cell proliferation in UM based on Ki-67 immunoreactivity. Cell proliferation index fitted best with the survival data when combined with MVD, MLN, and presence of epithelioid cells. Analogous with the finding that high MVD in primary UM is associated with shorter time to metastasis than low MVD, high MVD in hepatic metastasis tends to be associated with shorter survival after diagnosis of metastasis. Because the liver is the main organ for metastasis from UM, growth factors largely produced in the liver hepatocyte growth factor, epidermal growth factor and insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) together with their receptors may have a role in the homing and survival of metastatic cells. Therefore the association between immunoreactivity for IGF-1R in primary UM and metastatic death was studied. It was found that immunoreactivity for IGF-IR did not independently predict metastasis from primary UM in my series.

Infrared Magnitude-Redshift Relations for Luminous Radio Galaxies

Infrared magnitude-redshift relations for the 3CR and 6C samples of radio galaxies are presented for a wide range of plausible cosmological models, including those with non-zero cosmological constant OmegaLambda. Variations in the galaxy formation redshift, metallicity and star formation history are also considered. The results of the modelling are displayed in terms of magnitude differences between the models and no-evolution tracks, illustrating the amount of K-band evolution necessary to account for the observational data. Given a number of plausible assumptions, the results of these analyses suggest that: (i) cosmologies which predict T_0xH_0>1 (where T_0 denotes the current age of the universe) can be excluded; (ii) the star formation redshift should lie in the redshift interval 5

Huntingdonshire Regional College: e-Portfolio system motors students to success and improves organisational efficiency

By introducing the OneFile e–portfolio system, the Motor Vehicle department at Huntingdonshire Regional College has revolutionised its teaching and learning delivery, improved organisational efficiency, and helped students achieve qualifications quicker. Bundles of paper have been scrapped, students can now upload video and audio as reflective evidence, and assessors no longer have to go on unnecessary visits to collect papers and signatures. What's more, the department has saved time and money, diversified learning and made an impact on its carbon footprint.

Case study: Improving success by flipping the learning

Case study on Hull College and how they have maximised student enjoyment and success in construction, engineering and motor vehicle programmes to a further four vocational areas.

机动车检测系统中多功能数据采集器的设计

机动车检测的远程化、网络化是机动车检测技术的发展方向.方案对传统的Science-BCJ型机动车检测系统进行改造,设计了一种基于嵌入式TCP/IP的远程数据采集和控制系统,使机动车检测系统实现了远程检测和控制.系统包括硬件设计,软件编程,以及系统调试.解决了数据采集,外部设备调度,TCP数据包超时重传及定时保活,网卡参数配置,硬件看门狗等一系列问题.经过几个月的软硬件测试表明:新的检测系统设计合理、稳定可靠.

Artificial Habitats for Fisheries Enhancement in the Australian Region

This paper outlines developments over about 20 years in the construction of and ecological research on artificial reefs, fish aggregation devices (FAD's), and other artificial habitats designed to enhance fish populations and fisheries in the Australian region (including New Zealand and Papua New Guinea). Work was initially carried out on multicomponent reefs using a variety of waste materials, as well as some specially constructed concrete and steel structures. Later studies concentrated on single-component reefs, again mainly using waste materials. Although no definitive conclusions were reached on the relative effectiveness of the different materials used, waste motor vehicle tires and derelict ships were generally judged to be the best all-around materials for single-component reef construction in sheltered estuarine and offshore marine environments, respectively, in this region. FAD's comprising polyvinylchloride pipe sparbuoys (or in some areas polyurethane foam floats) attached to railroad car wheel anchors by polyethylene rope and chain, and supporting attractor drapes of synthetic mesh webbing, also provedtobegenerallysuccessfulin thisarea. Overall conclusions for the Australian region include the predominant use of waste materials in artificial reef construction, which has been primarily aimed at recreational fisheries enhancement; the successful use of FAD's for both recreational and commercial fisheries enhancement; the need for further and better planned research into and monitoring of the effectiveness of both of these enhancement methods; and the need for future research into the effectiveness of unfished "artificial habitat reserves" in enhancing fisheries production from surrounding fished areas.

Mudanças de Estado e Multiplicadores Fiscais no Brasil entre 1999-2012

Este trabalho avalia o comportamento dos multiplicadores fiscais no Brasil entre 1999-2012. Para tanto, utiliza a metodologia desenvolvida por Sims, Waggoner e Zha (2008), que é um procedimento Bayesiano de estimação no qual os parâmetros do modelo mudam com alterações no estado da economia e os estados (regimes) seguem um processo de mudança de regime markoviano. Ou seja, foi estimado um modelo VAR Estrutural Bayesiano com mudança de regimes Markoviana (Markov Switching Structural Bayesian Vector Autoregression - MS-SBVAR). A base de dados é composta pelo consumo da administração pública, pela formação bruta de capital fixo da administração pública, pela carga tributária líquida e pelo Produto Interno Bruto (PIB), das três esferas do governo (federal, estadual, incluindo o Distrito Federal, e municipal). O software MATLAB/Dynare foi utilizado na estimação dos modelos e os resultados sugerem a ocorrência de 2 ou 3 regimes nos dois modelos que melhor se ajustaram aos dados. Os multiplicadores estimados apresentaram os sinais esperados e os diferentes tipos de multiplicadores fiscais calculados apresentaram valores maiores para a resposta do PIB a choques na formação bruta de capital fixo da administração pública que são eficazes, uma vez que possuem valores maiores do que um e impacto de longo prazo no PIB - quando comparado aos choques no consumo da administração pública, que possuem pouca persistência e são ineficazes (menores do que um), além de uma resposta negativa e persistente do PIB a choques na carga tributária líquida. Os resultados obtidos não indicam, ainda, multiplicadores fiscais maiores em regimes com maior variância nos resíduos do modelo.

Student-t processes as alternatives to Gaussian processes

We investigate the Student-t process as an alternative to the Gaussian process as a non-parametric prior over functions. We derive closed form expressions for the marginal likelihood and predictive distribution of a Student-t process, by integrating away an inverse Wishart process prior over the co-variance kernel of a Gaussian process model. We show surprising equivalences between different hierarchical Gaussian process models leading to Student-t processes, and derive a new sampling scheme for the inverse Wishart process, which helps elucidate these equivalences. Overall, we show that a Student-t process can retain the attractive properties of a Gaussian process - a nonparamet-ric representation, analytic marginal and predictive distributions, and easy model selection through covariance kernels - but has enhanced flexibility, and predictive covariances that, unlike a Gaussian process, explicitly depend on the values of training observations. We verify empirically that a Student-t process is especially useful in situations where there are changes in covariance structure, or in applications such as Bayesian optimization, where accurate predictive covariances are critical for good performance. These advantages come at no additional computational cost over Gaussian processes.

贝尔凹陷苏德尔特构造带古潜山构造与储层研究

With the develop ment of oil and gas exploration, the conventional struc ture exploration era has gradually been substituted by the concealed reser voir exploration technology. Hill poll becomes one of the most important areas in the future exploration. This paper is based on the three-dimensional seismic interpretation of Sudeerte structure. In terms of the overall character istics of Sudeerte structure, we use the coherent cube and the time slice to interpret the fault in plane. For the interpretation，we especially used the well to adjust the interpretation results. The results of seismic attribution analysis, spectrum decomposition and post- stack seismic inversion forecast that hill pools reservoir are dist ributed in several bands along the north-northeast to northeast-east. Xing'anling Group shows that the potential reser voirs are mainly distributed along Bei 14 –Bei 40 and De (99-212) - Bei (16-1) and Budate Group distributed along Bei 14 –Bei 40 in northwestern direction and De (99-212) - Bei (16-1) in north eastern direction. At the same time, by analyzing the structure and the reservoir, and combining with other data, three models are built. The characteristics of reservoirs dist ribution are concl uded，and potent ional favorable exploration dire ctions are predi cted.

影响生育价值观因素的研究－传统回归分析与多层线性模型分析结果的比较

Based on the research of predictors of VOC, this study explores the predictive effect of factors, such as generation, urban/rural context, collectivism/individualism orientation, family value, independent/interdependent self, adult attachment, on the Emotional and Traditional factors of VOC. Considering the hierarchical data structure of the VOC study, which resulted from the original research design, this dissertation applies Hierarchical Linear Model (HLM) after using traditional regression. A comparison between the results from the tow statistical methods is made, and the results are as follows: 1) Reliability coefficients of questionnaires used in this study are satisfactory, and most of them can be used in further research. 2) Samples from different generation and urban/rural context show significant differences on the score of collectivism/individualism orientation, family value, independent/interdependent self, adult attachment, and VOC. 3) Regression equations with VOC as outcome variable differ from each other when using data from sample with restricted generation or urban/rural context. 4) Results by HLM shows that interdependent self and mother identity have positive effect on emotional factor of VOC. Emotional factor’s variation on family level is not significant. 5) Results by HLM shows that Individualism, Interdependent Self and Grandmother Identity can predict Traditional factor of VOC. Traditional factor’s variation is significant on family level, which can be explained by family income and it’s area-urban or rural. Based on the results above, the researcher concludes that a) generation identity and urban/rural context have important effect on VOC; b) Interdependent Self is an important predictive factor of VOC’s Emotional factor, which is nearly subjective to other factors; d) VOC’s traditional factor varies with other factors, which show its strong relation with culture and tradition; e) more exact results can be gotten from HLM analysis, which beyond tradition regression.